patrick.net

HeadSet says

Lower principle beats lower rate, which is what will happen when prices fall.

Townhomes on east end of Panama City Beach are clearly selling at early 2021 price levels or about 20% below all time high set in 2022.

How much do you see the median USA home price falling from its ~2022 high if the 30 yr conventional mortgage rate steadies between 5.75% and 6.25% ?

TheAntiPanicanLearingCenter says

Sellers and Homeloaners: The rates, the rates, cut the rates!

Buyers: The price, the price, damn the rates, cut the price!

We already know about why the buyers are staying away. The rents are dropping in many markets from Colorado to Texas to Florida, so goodbye investors. The people actually in a position to buy a house think they're overvalued, not that the rates are too high.

The huffy "Oh yeah, well I'm delisting and coming back in May, then we'll see what you buyers say!" isn't going to work.

If housing is so scarce, sellers, you should have no problem getting rent ;)

Millions of new multifamilies were built in the last 10 years and many of them have serious vacancy problems. Builders are offering incentives that make buying new a no-brainer over buying used and abused.

^^^ This

Multifamily housing is overbuilt and overpriced and will be the yawning chasm of financial doom going forward. The paper behind this (CLO's) is as toxic as the CDO's leading up to the housing bust back in 2008.

stereotomy says

Multifamily housing is overbuilt and overpriced and will be the yawning chasm of financial doom going forward. The paper behind this (CLO's) is as toxic as the CDO's leading up to the housing bust back in 2008.

This is also why a lot of multifamily also still charge $2,500/mo BUT are giving off 5-6 months free. They can't reduce the rental price as it shows on their books because that in turn fucks with their financing.

stereotomy says

Multifamily housing is overbuilt and overpriced and will be the yawning chasm of financial doom going forward. The paper behind this (CLO's) is as toxic as the CDO's leading up to the housing bust back in 2008.

Those multifamilies won't vanish, however. The bank will get rid of it ASAP and the firesale buyers will cut the rents. Or, converted to condos at a very good price. Overpriced ticky tack Shacks and Al Bundys will get SCHLONGED.

1-2 beds under $1500 in/near major metros, not in the sticks 2 hours from employment
Dallas
https://www.redfin.com/city/30794/TX/Dallas/rentals/filter/property-type=multifamily,max-price=1.5k
San Antone
https://www.redfin.com/city/16657/TX/San-Antonio/rentals/filter/property-type=multifamily,max-price=1.5k
Austin (down 21% from COVID peak)
https://www.redfin.com/city/30818/TX/Austin/rentals/filter/property-type=multifamily,max-price=1.5k
Orlando
https://www.redfin.com/city/13655/FL/Orlando/apartments-under-1500-for-rent
Saint Pete
https://www.redfin.com/city/16164/FL/St-Petersburg/rentals/filter/property-type=multifamily,max-price=1.5k

Colorado Springs
https://www.redfin.com/city/4147/CO/Colorado-Springs/rentals/filter/property-type=multifamily,max-price=1.5k
Nashville
https://www.redfin.com/city/13415/TN/Nashville/rentals/filter/property-type=multifamily,max-price=1.5k
Asheville
https://www.redfin.com/city/555/NC/Asheville/rentals/filter/property-type=multifamily,max-price=1.5k
Atlanta
https://www.redfin.com/city/30756/GA/Atlanta/rentals/filter/property-type=multifamily,max-price=1.5k

COVID was the peak of a ~20-year cycle; that trend is now over, it is no pause. We're in a whole new housing market driven by the largest generation dying off or downsizing, and a halt to mass migration.

With the mass stock run up since the 80s and the real estate since the late 90s, Boomers and Early Xers have absolutely nothing to bitch about, unless they blew it all on Jet Skis and Stereos or 3 Ex-Wives.

1. Households are half the size than they were in the 80s
2. Boomers are dying or downsizing
3. Immigration is in reverse.
4. Massive multifamily overbuilds; bankruptcy of investors doesn't matter - the buildings remain and will be sold or rented and competing with overpriced tick tack shacks and bunker ranch houses
4b. $1500 no responsibility/month or $2500+unlimited liability/month?

Greatest Ranches? Postwar Ranches? Midcentury Ranches? "Cracker Box"? Concrete Block ranches.

Another factor in housing (see point 1, above)

MolotovCocktail says

TheAntiPanicanLearingCenter says

Another factor in housing (see point 1, above)

MolotovCocktail says

...and the smarter bitches are starting to figure this out (too late):

MolotovCocktail says

When the feminism wears off: