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housing prices peak 2


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2022 Apr 29, 9:29pm   406,180 views  4,502 comments

by AD   ➕follow (1)   💰tip   ignore  

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https://finance.yahoo.com/news/pimco-kiesel-called-housing-top-160339396.html?source=patrick.net

Bond manager Mark Kiesel sold his California home in 2006, when he presciently predicted the housing bubble would pop. He bought again in 2012, after U.S. prices fell more than 30% and found a floor.

Now, after a record surge in prices, Kiesel says the time to sell is once again at hand.

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978   HeadSet   2022 Sep 30, 11:27am  

zzyzzx says


Today at 4:30pm they received a call saying that our buyers financing fell through

Our realtor said he cannot legally ask for more time, and we can take the 80k deposit and re-list our house.


Usually, a real estate contract has a contingency that if the buyer's loan is declined, the deposit is refunded. Not sure how the seller can keep the $80k, unless Canadian laws are different.
980   Booger   2022 Oct 2, 5:54am  

https://wtop.com/business-finance/2022/09/sellers-no-longer-getting-list-price-dc-metro-tops-that-list/

Average home sales dip below list prices — DC metro area’s drop is the biggest
982   WookieMan   2022 Oct 2, 7:03am  

HeadSet says

Usually, a real estate contract has a contingency that if the buyer's loan is declined, the deposit is refunded. Not sure how the seller can keep the $80k, unless Canadian laws are different.

It's extremely difficult if not impossible for the seller to keep earnest money (deposit) using standardized modern contracts, at least residential. As you mention Canada may be different.

I participated in 1k+ deals managing an RE brokerage (not selling myself) for 15 years and it happened 1-2 times and was a trivial amount like $2-5k. Earnest money/deposits are all fluff basically. A "feel" good for the seller that the deal will close so the agent can get it under contract and get a commission. Generally has nothing to do with what the seller "could" get if the deal falls apart. Brokers use EM as leverage all the time knowing their buyer won't lose shit. Oh he put $10k down, he's serious says the listing broker. It's fucked up. It's flat out lying. The attorneys know it too and know they'll get paid either way via an actual closing or representing them to collect earnest money that will never/rarely happen.
984   AD   2022 Oct 2, 3:56pm  

Al_Sharpton_for_President says

For a $2,500/month payment and 20% down, one can afford a $476K house today. In early 2021, the figure was $759K.

Ergo, the $759K house is now worth $476K.


That's about right with the rule for every 1% increase in the 30 year rate, there is about a 10% drop in price. The 30 your rate bottomed around 3% in 2021 and now is 7%.

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985   AD   2022 Oct 2, 3:57pm  

And we'll see how popular the 5 year Adjustable Rate Mortgage is as a substitute for the 30 year mortgage if the 30 year rate remains for the long term above 6%.

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986   Ceffer   2022 Oct 2, 5:06pm  

Even more inventory coming on in Live Oak, Capitola, Soquel. The hang times are increasing. Prices have dropped on some, but it looks like many are trying to hang on to their dream equity. Winter might be brutal if mortgage rates go up another point to point and a half.
987   AD   2022 Oct 2, 5:12pm  

Ceffer says

Even more inventory coming on in Live Oak, Capitola, Soquel. The hang times are increasing. Prices have dropped on some, but it looks like many are trying to hang on to their dream equity. Winter might be brutal if mortgage rates go up another point to point and a half.


Depends on how desperate people want to sell such as if they are in a rush to sell. Unemployment of white collar jobs is a major factor.

Another matter is that those who bought recently with assumable mortgages like VA or FHA, then have very low rates like 3.25%. These assumable mortgages can be assumed or taken on by the buyers of these homes.

But how many of those who recently bought with assumable mortgages are really going to be desperate to sell or just abandon their homes ? This is not like the subprime mortgage crisis in 2008.
988   GNL   2022 Oct 2, 5:13pm  

Ceffer says

Even more inventory coming on in Live Oak, Capitola, Soquel. The hang times are increasing. Prices have dropped on some, but it looks like many are trying to hang on to their dream equity. Winter might be brutal if mortgage rates go up another point to point and a half.

I assume sales will remain slow until people accept the "New Normal" pricing. IF rates remain high for some time. Those who have to sell will sell.
989   AD   2022 Oct 2, 8:12pm  

GNL says


IF rates remain high for some time. Those who have to sell will sell.


My guess is that rates will stabilize around 5%. It will be interesting if a lot of owners will just wait until the rate stabilizes and then sell.

I am glad we got an assumable 30 year mortgage (Veteran Affairs) at 3% back in 2016. That will help us to buy more buyers at a better price if the buyers qualify to assume the mortgage.

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990   pudil   2022 Oct 2, 8:18pm  

Who has to sell? This isn’t leveraged out the ass flipper owned properties like 2008. Everyone is working remote. Cost to build is sky high. Sorry you didn’t buy a house in the last 12 years, you missed your window.

Only way house prices decrease significantly is if there is a massive recession. In that case you won’t be able to get the financing to buy anyways.
991   GNL   2022 Oct 2, 8:58pm  

pudil says


Sorry you didn’t buy a house in the last 12 years, you missed your window.

What do they say about making assumptions? I'm imagining lower sales volume and a higher % of sellers will be those that have to sell. I guess you forgot how often people in 2008 said "if you don't buy now you'll never be able to buy". Then after 2010ish we witnessed literally millions and millions of people do what? That's right...THEY BOUGHT HOMES!!
992   Blue   2022 Oct 2, 9:58pm  

ad says

My guess is that rates will stabilize around 5%.

Can gov pay interest on its ever increasing debt beyond this point!
993   AD   2022 Oct 2, 10:32pm  

Blue says


Can gov pay interest on its ever increasing debt beyond this point!


Good point as I suspect the Fed Funds rate will stabilize around 4.25% from currently at 3.25%.

The 10 year Treasury is 3.8%. It averaged about 2% a year under Obama when he was borrowing $1 trillion annually.

Right now I think debt service is still sustainable for the federal government. Its only about 9% of the federal budget.

https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2019/07/24/facts-about-the-national-debt/ft_19-07-18_nationaldebt_2/

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994   AD   2022 Oct 2, 10:37pm  

This US Treasury site states interest payment is 5% of total federal budget : https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/federal-spending/#deficit-by-year

The site accounts for all spending including entitlements including Social Security.

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995   AD   2022 Oct 2, 10:46pm  

cisTits says

And the Fed owns the largest sungle chunk of it.


Yes the Federal Reserve owns US debt and so does the Social Security Trust Fund. Any surplus of Social Security is used to buy US debt (Treasury bills, notes, and bonds).

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996   GNL   2022 Oct 3, 4:06am  

ad says

My guess is that rates will stabilize around 5%.

What makes you say that when at this moment mortgage rates are 7% and the fed say they will continue to raise?
997   zzyzzx   2022 Oct 3, 5:29am  

https://www.marketwatch.com/picks/the-major-county-in-america-where-home-prices-just-dropped-the-most-is-01664637133

The major county in America where home prices just dropped the most is...

Alameda County (Oakland, Calif.), which is down 11%;
Travis County (Austin, Texas), which is down 9%;
Santa Clara County (San Jose, Calif., which is down 8%;
Contra Costa County (outside Oakland), which is down 7%; and
Fairfax County, Virginia (outside Washington, D.C.), which is down 7%.
998   zzyzzx   2022 Oct 3, 5:31am  

pudil says

Cost to build is sky high.


For now, but building supplies are trending downward (like lumber). Garage door and windows, etc will become available if they aren't already.
999   porkchopXpress   2022 Oct 3, 6:20am  

pudil says

Who has to sell? This isn’t leveraged out the ass flipper owned properties like 2008. Everyone is working remote. Cost to build is sky high. Sorry you didn’t buy a house in the last 12 years, you missed your window.

Only way house prices decrease significantly is if there is a massive recession. In that case you won’t be able to get the financing to buy anyways.
I just bought a house a few months ago and I knew it was at the peak, but I had more important reasons to leave CA and start elsewhere. I think you underestimate the probabilities of a job-loss recession with the record pace of monetary contraction that the Fed is driving. Having said that, the most desirable areas will always have demand which is why location matters so much especially in times of recession.
1002   zzyzzx   2022 Oct 3, 6:42am  

https://archive.ph/no8v3

'Big Short' analyst says Florida home values could drop as much as 50% in some areas when markets factor in flood and storm costs from disasters like Hurricane Ian

Lee County, which includes Fort Myers and its suburb Cape Coral in southwest Florida, was home to one of the biggest disconnects between what homeowners were paying in flood insurance and what insurers should be charging to cover their risk, DeltaTerra found. In an analysis the firm shared with investors in May 2021, DeltaTerra estimated that single-family home values in the metropolitan area could fall by between 32.3 and 52.8% once the market correctly priced in flood-protection costs.

Fort Myers was squarely in the middle of Hurricane Ian when it made landfall. Now that buyer demand is cooling because of higher interest rates, a reckoning with the true costs of flood protection could make it all the more difficult for its housing market to recover. That would send a warning to other metros, Burt said.

"People actually being exposed to events where they aren't bailed out by home-price appreciation, and you see these problems a year and a half from now persisting — unlike what's happened in previous disaster events. It's a strong signal to other markets," Burt said.

"Once people actually observe some financial harm, that's when they'll start reacting to it," he added.
1003   zzyzzx   2022 Oct 3, 6:45am  

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Florida_land_boom_of_the_1920s#End_of_the_boom

Hurricanes played a part in ending the 1920s Florida property bubble too.

The 1926 Miami hurricane ended the boom and the much smaller 1928 Okeechobee hurricane made certain it was extinguished. The 1926 hurricane destroyed "whatever public enthusiasm for Florida vacation properties and real estate development that remained," as there had been little preparation for the storm.

In 2006 there were four storms that crossed Florida. I think it was 2006. After that insurance doubled for everybody not just the areas that were hit. People could no longer afford the mortgage payment with the new insurance on top of it and everybody that had bought in the suburbs needed to move closer to work because it cost of gas had also gone up. A lot of homes went up for sale and they were fire sales. And then they were short sales. So don't think that this won't happen again because it is unbelievable the timing.

New Orleans native here. Katrina definitely destroyed housing prices for nearly a decade. Sure, if a storm decimates homes but demand for some reason remains unreasonably strong, then sure maybe housing prices continue to rise. But as someone who lived through that shit show, and had many friends who were natives for generations relocate to Texas after the storm, I can tell you, most people will not want to live in the area after an event like Ian, unless they are true locals, and have all of their family and lifelong friends there. But locals aren’t who drive up prices, transplants are. And transplants don’t have the stomach for living through the YEARS of cleanup an event like this requires. Also, New Orleans is truly one of the funnest and most unique cities in the country, despite it’s pitfalls, so in my opinion worth the bullshit. Fort Myers? Imo not so much.
1004   WookieMan   2022 Oct 3, 8:25am  

porkchopexpress says

I just bought a house a few months ago and I knew it was at the peak, but I had more important reasons to leave CA and start elsewhere.

I think you said Nashville area. I don't like that area, but I think you'll do fine there. Better than CA. I don't like the area because bad musicians piss me off. Lots of drunk tourist. You can avoid it if you stay away from Broadway, but downtown Nashville is a shit hole in my opinion. I'd get better BBQ and food in the ghetto South Side neighborhoods in Chicago. Basically Nashville is an over rated binge drinkers paradise.

It has the party atmosphere of NOLA, but NOLA knows it's fucking trash. They own it. I generally like TN though. The Smokies are beautiful. Best spot is Cosby to the East of the park. Way less tourist. I parked my camper there for 4 days because the vacation rental probably had a 30% grade driveway. Almost fucked shit up in a bad way with our car and camper. My fault, but shit was that scary for a minute or two attempting to get the camper up there. Canned ham too, so only 14'. I trailer a lot and that was fucked up.
1007   Ceffer   2022 Oct 4, 11:01am  

Crimey. Stock market pile gone up over 4 percent so far in last two days. Dead cat bounce before more downward spiral?
1008   Ceffer   2022 Oct 4, 12:58pm  

As we know from the abundant illustrations of centralized psychopathic lunacies illustrated by the pre-90's Russian Communism and China, their terrorist policies result in escalating cascades of unintended consequences.

Clif High thinks that all the deaths from the vaccines will cause a lot of deflation by releasing houses from the older people and dead BoomFucks. He claims in his own circles there is massive death and morbidity amongst the older vaxxers (unattributed, of course, except by word of mouth and direct observation). WEF and Fed depend on fiat printing and various forms of inflation to remain viable. Deflation wrecks them. So, the terrorist policies of programmed vax democide will cause what they dread most.

Maybe I'll be able to buy a few beach houses from croaked Silicon Valley libs next year, LOL! There were a few brand new homes off of 41st Street, developed on the ocean. Their timing couldn't have been worse for the release, and the homes are currently being viewed at about 3.2 to 3.3 million or so for two story/2car garage small lot places 2200 to 2600 sq. ft or so. I ferried the wife over to swan about the models, and I really think the two agents thought the places would fly off the blocks. The two we saw looked literally like they were sweating bullets, not happy campers. Price progression on these will be interesting come winter.

Wait, watch pounce for those who have ready cash for investment?
1010   AD   2022 Oct 4, 1:10pm  

Ceffer says

Wait, watch pounce for those who have ready cash for investment?


Not sure if we'll have the same amount of blood shedding like we did 2008 to 2011 for housing.

Maybe a 20% drop even in popular areas like northwest Georgia (about 90 to 120 minutes northwest of Atlanta).

From what I've seen of various records like sales transactions on Zillow, that would bring residential real estate back to mid 2020 levels.

The Fed wants to wipe out even the COVID inflation-gains from stocks and housings.

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1011   Ceffer   2022 Oct 4, 1:10pm  

"This Clif High ?"

Self proclaimed seer of the various Woos. He does have a solid background in data analysis, so even with grains of salt, his stuff is interesting.
1012   FortWayneAsNancyPelosiHaircut   2022 Oct 4, 4:23pm  

Our old house that we sold in CA, still getting Redfin alerts on it, has dropped in price, not a lot though. Mostly due to higher interest rate and seasonal (winter low demand).

Inflation is fucking high, so once rates go down, prices will start climbing IMO. Anything short of nuclear armageddon pretty much guarantees CA housing going up. But after all the fuckery they did I'm glad to have moved on. Some things are worth more than money.
1013   Ceffer   2022 Oct 4, 7:31pm  

cisTits says

WTF! The housing 'experts' of PatNet painted a world where this wouldn't be happening!

You need to get them two hours before the pot and booze kick in.
1015   zzyzzx   2022 Oct 5, 5:26am  

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-10-03/new-york-offices-to-see-453-billion-in-value-wiped-out-due-to-remote-work
I haven't found an archive link yet.

NYC Offices to See $50 Billion in Value Wiped Out, Study Says

Researchers estimate the value of the city’s stock of office buildings will remain well below pre-pandemic levels given the rise in remote work
1016   Al_Sharpton_for_President   2022 Oct 5, 5:27am  

We(don't)Work.
1017   zzyzzx   2022 Oct 5, 5:29am  

https://www.reddit.com/r/realtors/comments/xvqpgu/what_do_you_guys_think_of_the_highlighted/

What do you guys think of the highlighted verbiage concerning the commission adjustment if the offer is less than asking? I don't remember ever seeing this condition in my area. It certainly wouldn't stop me from showing the property, but I'm curious as to how common it is in other areas.

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