patrick.net

richwicks says

It moves up an down.

Want a revealing education? Measure the national debt in terms of gold and silver since 1900. We always return to the mean, we're about 10 years over-due now. Next step is a doozy. I'll reconstruct the graph at some point, and post it.

So the amount of debt is measured in terms of pounds or tons of gold or silver ? And the amount of debt based on its value measured in tons of gold or silver has steadily increased each year by annual inflation (2% to 8% annually) ?

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richwicks says

It moves up an down.

Want a revealing education? Measure the national debt in terms of gold and silver since 1900. We always return to the mean, we're about 10 years over-due now. Next step is a doozy. I'll reconstruct the graph at some point, and post it.

So the amount of debt is measured in terms of pounds or tons of gold or silver ? And the amount of debt based on its value measured in tons of gold or silver has steadily increased each year by annual inflation (2% to 8% annually) ?

I'm saying there is a long term trend. In 1980, when gold reached $800 an ounce, the national debt was around $900 billion. The same thing happened in 1932 or so, when gold was $20 an ounce, and the national debt was $20 billion.

We will revert to the mean, but when this happens, it's going to be horrific.

Don't measure in terms of dollars, that's smoke and mirrors - measure in terms of commodities, ANY commodity. Sugar, oil, wheat, whatever, and suddenly you will be able to see true valuations. The problem with doing this is you will see bullshit immediately, our economy is filled with tulips. Google is a tulip, Apple is, Tesla CERTAINLY is, bitcoin is, anything you could have made money on is a tulip. We are in a completely false and artificial economy.

In 1920, a nice modern home cost 50 ounces of gold - and this wasn't a some shed, it was a modern home. That's about $100,000 today in dollars. That's the mean we will return to. An ounce of gold will be eventually be repriced to about 1/billionth the national debt. Today, that's around $30,000. The next few years are going to be interesting, but maybe not. Markets are severely distorted and have been for my ENTIRE lifetime.

But we always, ALWAYS return to the long term mean. It's outside of human control.

Okay so $30,000,000,000,000 of federal debt in a couple of years and divide that by 1 billion, and that means gold is priced at $30,000 per ounce.

I agree that it comes down to the standard of living and quality of life. The cost of commodities (corn, wheat, pork bellies, gasoline, orange juice, etc.) relative to the median household income and savings is primary to that.

That is why I think housing has to drop based on affordability metrics like rent not being more than 38% of household monthly income.

Same goes for housing whereas for low interest rates like 3% to 4% rate for 30 year mortgage, home prices are not more than 4 to 5 times household annual income. That is what my bank told me when I was seeking a mortgage.

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richwicks says

We will revert to the mean, but when this happens, it's going to be horrific.

It is always "horrific" as far as corrections in a boom-bust cycle or casino-style economy like ours, especially since 1999.

We always see over corrections and blood baths.

Go back to the late 1970s when manufacturing jobs in the USA peaked. Its been downhill since then. I am glad at least electronics manufacturing is coming back to the USA such as with chip plants. I saw Wolfspeed just opened a $1 billion chip plant in New York.

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richwicks says

I'm saying there is a long term trend.

Not in California, because taxes have become so much a part of the gasoline price.

Those public employee benefits are freaking expensive.

cisTits says

Anyone know a good site to purchase junk silver (pre-1964 silver dimes, etc)?

Don't want to buy from anyone to avoid getting ripped off.

Go to your local pawn, coin, or "Gold Silver" store. Do your research to know what is fair and what is a rip off.

Just looked it up. You can buy junk silver for about 22 times face value. A gallon of gas will cost you a quarter.

B.A.C.A.H. says

Not in California, because taxes have become so much a part of the gasoline price.

Those public employee benefits are freaking expensive.

My understanding is that if you purchase gold or silver in an amount costing more than $1500 USD, it doesn't count as "jewelry" and so isn't taxed. That said, if you could, it might be wise to make these purchases without the knowledge of various governments. If you purchase in an amount exceeding $10k USD then there are requirements to reporting to the federal government, so that is something to think about too.

There are 0.72 Troy OZ in a face-value dollar worth of dimes, quarters, and halves. There is 0.77 Troy OZ in a silver dollar.

Given today's silver price, a silver dime is worth 0.10 x 0.72 x $18.91 = $1.36

Camino Coin of Burlingame is a big-time dealer. Walk in with a stack of currency or call ahead if you're concerned. They also buy/sell sports memorabilia as well, which probably takes a little heat off people walking out. They have been around from the tail end of the gold rush ... really!

Their website is: https://caminocompany.com/
Avoid the squatter-company whose address is just the concatenation of Camino and Coin. (Ha! They aren't even using SSL!)

SunnyvaleCA says

Given today's silver price, a silver dime is worth 0.10 x 0.72 x $18.91 = $1.36

Try to buy one for less than two bucks.

SunnyvaleCA says

My understanding is that if you purchase gold or silver in an amount costing more than $1500 USD, it doesn't count as "jewelry" and so isn't taxed. That said, if you could, it might be wise to make these purchases without the knowledge of various governments. If you purchase in an amount exceeding $10k USD then there are requirements to reporting to the federal government, so that is something to think about too.

I think you missed my point.
California keeps adding taxes to the gasoline price so the rate of increase in the overall price consumers pay at the pump (in California) exceeds inflation.

ad says

The amount of silver and value of a silver dime is equivalent to the cost of a gallon of gas since the dime entered circulation.

It's close enough that the point has been made:

We would have almost no inflation if we had physical silver currency once again.

Taxes and things like Bidet shutting off the Keystone Pipeline can increase prices, but those are easily reversible with better policies.

My friend has a lot of silver he bought at $45 per ounce to sell to you.

cisTits says

Anyone know a good site to purchase junk silver (pre-1964 silver dimes, etc)?

Don't want to buy from anyone to avoid getting ripped off.

@cisTits

These are the guys I've used, but you would likely need to order today, guessing this will sell out fast:

Here's the special offer. VPM will sell $150 face value US 90% silver dimes (1,500 dimes) or quarters (600 quarters), our choice of denominations, containing 107.25 ounces of silver for $19.93 per dollar face value, a total of $2,989.25 plus $25 for shipping, i.e., $3,014.25 total.

One more thing: immediate delivery. Deliveries for one ounce silver rounds and ten ounce and 100 ounce bars have now stretched out to early January, eight weeks if you're lucky. Most of this coin is already sitting at VPM, and the rest will arrive in three days, so these coins can ship as soon as your payment clears, by Fed Ex two day service.

Please note this is a fixed price offer based on spot silver at $18.81.

Whatever the spot silver price, this offer's price will not change.

HOW TO ORDER:

** Call VPM at (888) 661-4093.

** Tell us how many lots you'd like.

** You cannot specify dimes or quarters.

** We will take orders on a first-come, first-served basis. Price is valid only as long as the supply lasts. We have only thirty (30) lots.

The following other conditions apply

Special Conditions:

Sorry, we will not take orders for less than one lot. Fine to send a personal check, but if you do your order will probably take four weeks to arrive.

ORDERING INSTRUCTIONS:

1. You may order by phone only, (888) 661-4093. Sorry, we can't ship outside the US or to states that charge sales tax, including HI, KY, ME, MN, MS, NV, NJ, NM, VT, WI, and DC. Tennessee no longer charges sales tax on gold and silver.

2. When you buy from us, we cannot later change or cancel the trade. We are giving you our word that we will sell at that price, & you are giving us your word that you will buy at that price, regardless what later happens in the market, up or down.

If you break your word to us, we will never again do business with you.

3. Once your order is filled, we will e-mail you a confirmation.

4. You may send payment by bank wire or personal check. We allow ten days for your check to clear after it reaches us.

5. We will ship by Fed Ex within approximately days of receiving your wire,

but due to insurance restrictions cannot ship on Thursdays or Friday.

SunnyvaleCA says

If you purchase in an amount exceeding $10k USD then there are requirements to reporting to the federal government, so that is something to think about too.

Depends on how you pay:

Everything is exempt from reporting when you buy gold or silver, unless you pay more than $10,000 in cash. Even then it's not your gold or silver purchase that must be reported, only the cash transaction. Contrary to the scare stories, very few things are reportable when you sell. Under 26 CFR 1.6045-1 and Rev.Proc. 92-103, dealers need only report customer sales of 25 or more (but not fewer) Krugerrands, Maple Leaves, or Mexican Onzas, five bag lots ($5,000 face value} of US 90% silver coin, kilo gold bars, 100 oz. gold bars, 1,000 oz. silver bars, or 50 oz. or 100 oz. of platinum. If you sell lots smaller than these, the dealer reports nothing.

cisTits says

Anyone know a good site to purchase junk silver (pre-1964 silver dimes, etc)?

Don't want to buy from anyone to avoid getting ripped off.

@cisTits

This shop is near me and gives fair prices:

http://www.mishinternational.com/

They deliver.

Onvacation says

Try to buy one for less than two bucks

NuttBoxer says

silver for $19.93 per dollar face value

I stand corrected! $1.93 plus shipping when you buy in bulk.

clambo says

My friend has a lot of silver he bought at $45 per ounce to sell to you.

Should buy silver based on dollar cost average not at the peak price which is around $45

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I dunno, bros. Like clambo pointed out, every time the preppers and gold bugs and silver bugs buy in a big way, it's been a peak.

Maybe "it's different this time." (Like Bay Area Real Estate).

I appreciate this link: http://www.mishinternational.com/

Where else is good to buy silver through the internet such as silver bars and silver eagle coins ?

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B.A.C.A.H. says

I dunno, bros. Like clambo pointed out, every time the preppers and gold bugs and silver bugs buy in a big way, it's been a peak.

If we get to Mad Max type environment then I don't think silver will matter much. I think it will come down to bartering of goods you can use like trade a can of beans for some potable or drinkable water.

I don't think we'll have enough stability where people will agree to use silver as a medium of exchange or a replacement for fiat currency like the US Dollar or EU.

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ad says

Where else is good to buy silver through the internet such as silver bars and silver eagle coins ?

The Internet because it's anonymous? You're better off bringing cash to the local silver shop.

Onvacation says

Where else is good to buy silver through the internet such as silver bars and silver eagle coins ?

The Internet because it's anonymous? You're better off bringing cash to the local silver shop.

I was asking what other websites are there that are good as far as buying silver like silver bars and silver coins.
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ad says

I don't think we'll have enough stability where people will agree to use silver as a medium of exchange or a replacement for fiat currency like the US Dollar or EU.

Another reason not to hoard this "industrial metal".

B.A.C.A.H. says

Another reason not to hoard this "industrial metal".

If there is a collapse of society, I just don't think even silver is going to be of enough value to be freely used for bartering, even if it is an "industrial application material" in the pre-collapsed world.

Society would have to be well on the road of recovery for silver and gold to be considered a medium of exchange.

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You think people are buying silver and gold for the collapse. That's why you're struggling to understand. It could be valuable as things are going down to trade for something you need, maybe even transportation. But most people are buying it for after the collapse. Do you want to come out on the other side penniless? Or ahead of majority of the population? Those of us who have our food, shelter, security, and water already provided for, are going to use the extra to buy up assets for next to nothing from those who are desperate, and to rebuild the world on the other side.

What will your digital account balances be worth? What about your paper once people stop taking it? I guess my struggle is to understand what alternatives you're thinking of to avoid destitution?

ad says

If there is a collapse of society, I just don't think even silver is going to be of enough value to be freely used for bartering, even if it is an "industrial application material" in the pre-collapsed world.

Society would have to be well on the road of recovery for silver and gold to be considered a medium of exchange.

NuttBoxer says

You think people are buying silver and gold for the collapse. That's why you're struggling to understand. It could be valuable as things are going down to trade for something you need, maybe even transportation. But most people are buying it for after the collapse. Do you want to come out on the other side penniless? Or ahead of majority of the population? Those of us who have our food, shelter, security, and water already provided for, are going to use the extra to buy up assets for next to nothing from those who are desperate, and to rebuild the world on the other side.

Different views.

I don't think someone would trade gasoline or food with me for silver. Bullets, potable water, maybe. Maybe trade their SUV for a dirtbike.

Silver? Gold? Call me a clueless podunk stupid person, I don't care. It's just my opinion.

What is your plan to avoid financial disaster in the face of a increasingly unstable world economy, built on the largest bubble ever blown in credit history? I see many potential mitigations, but they all require a willingness to separate from the current system.

NuttBoxer says

What is your plan to avoid financial disaster in the face of a increasingly unstable world economy, built on the largest bubble ever blown in credit history? I see many potential mitigations, but they all require a willingness to separate from the current system.

This never made sense to me. Maybe if you hold fiat currency only and have that imo crazy belief that the dollar will be worthless soon against other currencies (currently it's going the opposite way), you may lose it all, but most people have assets, houses, stocks, maybe precious metals. Any asset of any practical value will sell and convert to whatever the new currency du jour is. How do you see people losing everything? I'm not disputing money printing and debt has debased our currency and that most countries have too much debt (/gdp), but assets will always retain their intrinsic worth, so will services people can provide, if they are able ad willing to work, where's the "collapse"?

NuttBoxer says

rebuild the world on the other side.

Build Back Better?

Is the crash and the turmoil inevitable? Will our world become MORE dystopian? Mad Max?

rhetorical

NuttBoxer says

I see many potential mitigations, but they all require a willingness to separate from the current system.

I think the decoupling from the 2009 past of zero interest rate policy (ZIRP) and quantitative easing is going to happen to the point that the Fed will keep the Fed Funds rate at least at 4.5%. They are willing to see house prices drop at least 20% to 25%.

The stock market already had its pandemic gains wiped out when you account for inflation.

The question is, will the economy barely survive all of this or will the Fed have to come in and lower rates to 0.25% again ?

I hope asset prices like stocks and housing correct without causing a collapse of the economy.

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NuttBoxer says

What is your plan to avoid financial disaster in the face of a increasingly unstable world economy,

Everyone should have yams, ammo, Krugerrands and Claymores ready.

NuttBoxer says

What is your plan to avoid financial disaster in the face of a increasingly unstable world economy, built on the largest bubble ever blown in credit history? I see many potential mitigations, but they all require a willingness to separate from the current system.

It could get ugly. Some years ago I read as much as I could get my eyeballs on,about the Great Inflation in Weimar Germany. Mainly from esoteric out of print books buried in the stacks of the main library. That crisis lasted two years.

We pretty much would have to go off the grid, be self sufficient for water and food and everything else, to be unaffected. And even then with a David Koresh kind of prepper's arsenal we still might not be able to fight off others to defend our hoard.

So that leaves dealing with it the rest of civilization. One thing I learned in the Financial Crisis was that sovereign states made good on their versions of FDIC type deposit insurance: Greece, Cyprus, Iceland. Maybe the daily withdrawal amounts were limited. Maybe (like in Iceland) the purchasing power of the deposits shrunk with super high inflation. But small depositors (ie, not Russian oligarchs who deposited large amounts in Cypriot banks) were made whole.

Regarding hoarding precious metals, the US government already seized gold in 1934. They can do so again. Or else (more likely, in my opinion) they can tax the redemption of it so heavily that it won't be an effective hedge-hoard. Maybe retailers of gasoline and food (and electricity) will accept silver bullion for more than the face value of it on the coins. Maybe. What do you think?

Phillips Curve applies. So Fed was referring to how 2% to 3% inflation will result in higher unemployment.
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ad says

Phillips Curve applies. So Fed was referring to how 2% to 3% inflation will result in higher unemployment.
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Yeah but we do not have an unemployment problem at all in this recession, it's purely inflationary. In fact it's the opposite, we don't have enough workers for essential services as people have left the workforce in droves, moved back in with their parents or stay in a roommate situation forever or found a way to get by by abandoning the quest for keeping up with the joneses and instead focus on exploiting the leftoid welfare/disability state, stimmy checks and section 8. Or just steal regularly under $950 to make a living, tax free. There aren't any mass layoffs and there won't be any, this is a dysfunct economy of the unwilling to work, and some like truck drivers priced out of work, caused by leftoid marxism. Good news is you can always make money if you know how to hustle. Bad news is you are up against 8% inflation pa, few will beat it but it's def possible if you work hard and invest smart.

mell says

. Or just steal regularly under $950 to make a living, tax free. There aren't any mass layoffs and there won't be any, this is a dysfunct economy of the unwilling to work, caused by leftoid marxism.

Yeah,the latest generation is not into the rat race as much and are not looking to impress their high school classmates at their 5 or 10 year high school reunion.

Woke statist groups funded with Chicom and Soros money promote tolerance of substance abuse, freeloading, and mental illness as alternative lifestyles.

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B.A.C.A.H. says

I don't think someone would trade gasoline or food with me for silver.

Yep, an average person nowadays has no experience to tell real silver from some other alloy, so they most probably won't accept it.

mell says

This never made sense to me. Maybe if you hold fiat currency only and have that imo crazy belief that the dollar will be worthless soon against other currencies (currently it's going the opposite way), you may lose it all, but most people have assets, houses, stocks, maybe precious metals. Any asset of any practical value will sell and convert to whatever the new currency du jour is. How do you see people losing everything? I'm not disputing money printing and debt has debased our currency and that most countries have too much debt (/gdp), but assets will always retain their intrinsic worth, so will services people can provide, if they are able ad willing to work, where's the "collapse"?

The US dollar is the reserve fiat paper that backs all the other fiat papers. If it goes down, they all do.
Do you really own your house? No mortgage, no taxes? If not, and your ability to make those payments is wiped out, how will you keep it? A collapse of the fiat is really a collapse of the system, an unwinding of all the debt. Every business that borrows goes under. No more Ubers in the red for years but still operational. Unless you work for yourself, your job likely will be gone, or you'll be competing with more people than ever for what's left. Are you in the top 1% of your field? And that's assuming your field isn't wiped out entirely.

Assuming the company you hold stock in doesn't go under, the re-valuation to non-inflation levels will still likely cause you to lose 90% of the value. Unless you are Warren Buffet, you lose everything.

But you don't need my opinion, read for yourself how people have fared during currency collapses. History is lined with examples.