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Stock Market Prediction June to December 2022

By gabbar follow gabbar   2022 Jun 19, 4:19pm 804 views  46 comments           share      

Where do you think the stock market is headed for the remainder of 2022? Have we hit bottom already or is there more downside? How would you invest 100k in sitting in a Roth IRA?

Comments 1 - 40 of 46   Next »    Last »

1   Ceffer   2022 Jun 19, 4:38pm  

My magic market crystal ball says the present downside will look like upside by December. Of course, survivors will be eating cricket paste they can only get if they are chipped, vax poisoned and barcoded.
2   pudil   2022 Jun 19, 5:25pm  

If I had 100K cash fall into my lap I’d dollar cost average it into a diversified portfolio that is properly balanced based on my age and goals into a mix of stock and bond etfs.

If the money was already invested in my Roth and I was at this point starting to panic I’d walk away and not check it for a year. Now is the worst time to make changes. Either you go more risky or more conservative. You go risky right now, with so much uncertainty, you could lose even more. Go conservative, you lock in your losses. Best thing is to do nothing, and then re-eval your risk tolerance the next time the market is up.
3   Hircus   2022 Jun 19, 5:32pm  

Personally I started buying again. Not because I think I know what the market will do, but because I'm more of a long term buy and hold broad etf investor and think current prices are probably decent. I wouldnt be surprised if it goes down further though, but I also thought the market would keep tanking during covid, and instead it shot back up like a rocket. I think many missed the boat and didn't buy near the bottom because they awaited further declines that never materialized.
4   gabbar   2022 Jun 19, 6:10pm  

Its time to buy. I did buy some. Hoping for the market to go down so that I can buy more for the long term.
5   porkchopexpress   2022 Jun 19, 8:29pm  

Hircus says

Personally I started buying again. Not because I think I know what the market will do, but because I'm more of a long term buy and hold broad etf investor and think current prices are probably decent. I wouldnt be surprised if it goes down further though, but I also thought the market would keep tanking during covid, and instead it shot back up like a rocket. I think many missed the boat and didn't buy near the bottom because they awaited further declines that never materialized.
Big factor that’s different this time is the Fed is only starting to Jack up interest rates. Don’t fight the Fed.
6   clambo   2022 Jun 19, 8:47pm  

I think it has 10% more to go down.

If I had new money coming in I would buy anyway.

I think there will be a bounce in November.

I guess I have to wait for a while.
7   FortwayeAsFuckJoeBiden   2022 Jun 19, 8:49pm  

sit on cash till good news

no good news = no green
8   ad   2022 Jun 19, 11:29pm  

clambo says

I think it has 10% more to go down.


That would equate to about the S&P 500 being at the all time high just prior to the March/April 2020 bear market.

So the bottom in this bear market is near the top of the last bull market (June 2010 to March 2020).

.
9   gabbar   2022 Jun 20, 4:50am  

ad says


That would equate to about the S&P 500 being at the all time high just prior to the March/April 2020 bear market.

So the bottom in this bear market is near the top of the last bull market (June 2010 to March 2020).

Hircus says


I think many missed the boat and didn't buy near the bottom because they awaited further declines that never materialized.

I missed the boat. I don't want to miss again. Seems like bad news is already built into several stock prices (maybe not completely).
Market is closed for the first time ever for Juneteenth. Wtf?
10   GreaterNYCDude   2022 Jun 20, 6:50am  

clambo says

I think it has 10% more to go down.

Agreed. I suspect Dow will bottom at about 28,000, then bounce around for a bit. Once midterms are over market will start to go back up and probably finish the year just over 30,000.

We're still heading towards a recession/ stagflation but the markets won't tell the true tale of how main street is suffering. Wall Street has been disconnected from the real world for almost a decade.
11   gabbar   2022 Jun 20, 8:16am  

GreaterNYCDude says

Wall Street has been disconnected from the real world for almost a decade.

Right. However, there was a time, before the past decade decade when markets reflected what was happening on the main street. Seems like our country is all about finance control and manipulation (as opposed to China which is all about technology and manufacturing)
12   Tenpoundbass   2022 Jun 20, 8:17am  

You guys are going to screw around and coin the Minsky Hour.
13   1337irr   2022 Jun 20, 8:59am  

Tenpoundbass says

You guys are going to screw around and coin the Minsky Hour.

Please elaborate Tenpoundbass.
14   AmericanKulak   2022 Jun 20, 9:00am  

1337irr says

Tenpoundbass says


You guys are going to screw around and coin the Minsky Hour.

Please elaborate Tenpoundbass.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Minsky_moment
15   gabbar   2022 Jun 20, 9:15am  

If the Minsky Hour does not happen by itself, it could always be engineered, I reckon.
16   SunnyvaleCA   2022 Jun 20, 6:45pm  

Overall P/E is still pretty high. I think there could be a lot of sudden downside but any upside will be slow and gradual. I not rushing out to buy anything right now; sitting on a bunch of cash earning 0.01% (which is better than losing 30%).

Federal Reserve manipulation is the big thing to watch. I think the Fed will try to split a fine line between inflation and recession and we'll wind up with some "excess" inflation and some economic slowdown / recession. Because nothing will actually be resolved, this could continue for years.
17   B.A.C.A.H.   2022 Jun 20, 7:14pm  

SunnyvaleCA says


sitting on a bunch of cash earning 0.01%.

Friend, you can earn more than that with a high degree of safety. I am not talking about "Money Market Funds" which are not insured by the FDIC.

Brokered FDIC backed one month CD's pay a significant fraction of a percent. If you want more than 1.0 percent you need to go out to 2 to 3 months. Higher rates for longer terms. These are brokered at Fidelity and Vanguard in $1000 increments. No commission is charged. (Maybe they get some consideration from the bank that issues the CDs?)

Treasury Direct, which has even finer granularity ($100 increments) will sell you Treasury Debt with no fees. You will get market rates for all the terms: 1 month, 2 month, 3 month, 6 month, 1 year, etc. The one month yield is approximately 1%.
18   EBGuy   2022 Jun 20, 7:30pm  

B.A.C.A.H. says

Treasury Direct, which has even finer granularity ($100 increments) will sell you Treasury Debt with no fees. You will get market rates for all the terms: 1 month, 2 month, 3 month, 6 month, 1 year, etc. The one month yield is approximately 1%.

Thanks for the heads up on this B.A.C.A.H., I'm going to check out the T-bills when purchasing I-Bonds. I've been looking for a safe interest bearig mattress to stuff my emergency fund under...
19   1337irr   2022 Jun 20, 7:34pm  

But AZZ yields 1.61% and you can sell cover calls for extra money!
20   HunterTits   2022 Jun 20, 7:46pm  

Cricket Paste futures!

Put everything into Cricket Paste futures.

You can't go wrong. Close analysis of Yellen's droppings and the BitCoin ledger backs me up in this. So trust me.
21   clambo   2022 Jun 20, 9:27pm  

In a few weeks I will convert some of my IRA to a Roth IRA, it's a good time to do it.

I'd rather pay the tax on conversion of things that are down 25%+
22   ad   2022 Jun 20, 9:34pm  

SunnyvaleCA says

Overall P/E is still pretty high.


S&P 500's P/E ratio (trailing twelve months) is 18.5 and around the average P/E value from 1980 to present day.

https://www.multpl.com/s-p-500-pe-ratio

....
23   1337irr   2022 Jun 20, 11:51pm  

P/E is a decent ratio to measure, but investors need to take in context growth of a company. FB might be a great value at this point even though the company is matured at 12 for its P/E. KHC might not be worth it at 35, but it's book value per a share is pretty amazing!

Still, I'm buying AZZ. I think the market they have and where they are located makes sense for long term growth and it is at 12 for a P/E.
24   Blue   2022 Jun 21, 12:13am  

https://www.multpl.com/shiller-pe
Current Shiller PE Ratio: 28.39 +0.06 (0.22%)
4:00 PM EDT, Fri Jun 17
Mean: 16.95
Median: 15.87
Min: 4.78 (Dec 1920)
Max: 44.19 (Dec 1999)
looks still not cheap. Is this better indicator than regular P/E.
25   DooDahMan   2022 Jun 21, 4:36am  

clambo says

I think there will be a bounce in November.


What bounces up will eventually come back down - the fat lady has not uttered a note yet.
26   gabbar   2022 Jun 21, 8:39am  

This is what I did for my last purchase. I bought NU. Why? Because Warren Buffet bought it too. I bought it at a lower price than him ($3.34). Does this kind of foolishness make any sense for stock picking? I am going to hold this one for 5 years.
27   gabbar   2022 Jun 21, 8:40am  

1337irr says

P/E is a decent ratio to measure, but investors need to take in context growth of a company. FB might be a great value at this point even though the company is matured at 12 for its P/E. KHC might not be worth it at 35, but it's book value per a share is pretty amazing!

Still, I'm buying AZZ. I think the market they have and where they are located makes sense for long term growth and it is at 12 for a P/E.

I will review what Value Line Investment Survery says about AZZ
28   1337irr   2022 Jun 21, 8:53am  

Pleasegabbar says

1337irr says


P/E is a decent ratio to measure, but investors need to take in context growth of a company. FB might be a great value at this point even though the company is matured at 12 for its P/E. KHC might not be worth it at 35, but it's book value per a share is pretty amazing!

Still, I'm buying AZZ. I think the market they have and where they are located makes sense for long term growth and it is at 12 for a P/E.

I will review what Value Line Investment Survery says about AZZ


Please let me know what you find out, a second opinion is a good thing.
29   gabbar   2022 Jun 21, 9:03am  

1337irr says

Please let me know what you find out, a second opinion is a good thing.

Sure thing. Residents have a free subscription to Value Line Survey through our local public library.
30   gabbar   2022 Jun 21, 9:07am  

1337irr says

Please let me know what you find out, a second opinion is a good thing.

Here is their take on AZZ

31   1337irr   2022 Jun 21, 1:27pm  

Thanks! The labor shortage is interesting...
32   1337irr   2022 Jun 21, 2:51pm  

Would anybody here be interested in making an activist shareholder company to fight wokeness? I figure we could pool our shares in some management company to try to get companies like Disney to be less woke.
33   gabbar   2022 Jun 21, 5:05pm  

1337irr says

Would anybody here be interested in making an activist shareholder company to fight wokeness? I figure we could pool our shares in some management company to try to get companies like Disney to be less woke.

Not sure if anti-wokeism will have a long term market. If Democrats loose in the next couple of elections, they might drop wokeism and adopt a different strategy. Or not. Time will tell.
34   gabbar   2022 Jun 21, 5:10pm  

1337irr says


Thanks! The labor shortage is interesting...

Morning Star's fair value for AZZ is 53.
35   gabbar   2022 Jun 22, 8:17am  

Is the buying opportunity of the decade just around the corner (December to March time frame)?
36   FortwayeAsFuckJoeBiden   2022 Jun 22, 10:05am  

gabbar says

Is the buying opportunity of the decade just around the corner (December to March time frame)?


you never know, but it feels like its coming.

idea though is to buy at discount, not all at once in case false bottom
37   gabbar   2022 Jun 22, 3:16pm  

gabbar says

idea though is to buy at discount, not all at once in case false bottom

I buy 50%, then followed by two 25% purchases. Not sure if this the right plan. I am a dumbo, I had bought Netflix many years back when it was $7 and then sold it for a quick profit. I didn't know any better and I didnt have anyone to guide me.
38   gabbar   2022 Jun 29, 2:41pm  

Wanted to share this comment from Gary Friedman, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of Restoration Hardware. He has a reputation for being truthful and sincere. He expects the next several quarters to be "a short term challenge".

"The deteriorating macro-economic environment has resulted in lower than expected demand since our prior forecast (a few weeks back), and we are updating our outlook, particularly for the second half of the year".
39   Booger   2022 Jun 29, 5:07pm  

gabbar says

Netflix many years back when it was $7


You may get that opportunity again ..
40   Booger   2022 Jun 29, 5:13pm  

SunnyvaleCA says

sitting on a bunch of cash earning 0.01%


Ally Bank is paying 1%

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