patrick.net

Misc says

Inflation expectations have been rising across the yield curve, the stock market seems like it is headed for a massive blow off top, and pure speculation is rampant with Bitcoin soaring.

It would have to result in demand outpacing supply causing an inflationary pressure, such as consumers being significantly motivated by the wealth effect or cashing out of their capital gains.

Keep on monitoring underlying or core inflation (inflation minus food and energy) especially automobile repair, housing costs and healthcare.

I still think if the overall inflation rate, PCE, averages below 3% for 6 consecutive months that the Federal Reserve will start to lower the Federal Funds rate which is at a 23 year high of 5.5%.
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fiat currency system with Federal Reserve actions producing a desired effect of guvmint reported annual inflation of 2.5%

look at the coining of money as silver such as the "value" of a 25 cent silver piece

perhaps Bitcoin (BTC) has unwittingly become the more modern digital "25 cent silver piece" and hedge to the fiat currency system ?

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Patrick says

Wait for the CBDC Great Reset Combo rollout.

Something like this.

You'll be allowed to move your old cash only up to a certain amount into your CBDC wallet, only a certain fraction after that (10 cents to the old dollar?) up to another capped amount. Rest after that, nada or there will be a trading exchange with trillions of stranded old dollars chasing much fewer new CBDCs.

You have an anuity or structured settlement that pays you in old dollars? Too bad. Those assets will become worthless. You own bonds? Same thing. But technically they won't be defaulted on. Neat trick, eh?

Good news: Your mortgage, car loan and credit card lenders will be equally fucked, entirely or mostly. Debt jubilee, kiddies!

You will be paid on CBCDs, pay your taxes in it. Any new debt you take on will be denominated in CBCDs.

Stocks and other equity assets should be ok. The
stock markets will be repriced in CBCDs. Dividends will be paid out in CBCDs, as will the company revenues that pay those out.

US governmemt debt to GDP ratio will fall to near zero. This is all forms of government debt. Not in old dollar terms but in CBDC terms. 'Near' vs 'zero' depending on how much pensions are bailed out.

Said pensions might be completely fucked or partially converted to CBCDs as I described in the above. But a severe haircut at a minimum will be involved. State and local level public pensions more likely to be fucked. Private sector pensions totally fucked.

So, about those fucked pensions. There might be entitlement reform where SS, welfare, etc. will be all rolled up into a wimp-ass version of UBI or UBS or combo thereof we will all be getting...unless you post the wrong shit on X or even PatNet. Or dare to apply for a job while being white-male.

Your average Joe & Suzie Sixpac will come out of this ok. Hell, they might come out this even better. Esp if their mortgage and student loan debt basically get wiped out. And the UBI trickle keeps them from starving at least.

Companies...especially those most involved in the Real Economy..will be ok. Health care may be shaken up quite a bit, tho.

Investors will need carrots to get them to buy US treasuries or even mortgage bundles again. So believe it or not but CBCD being tied into a gold standard, with regulated redemption, could be in the cards just to do that. Besides gold will be needed for international settlements anyway. At first, all privately held gold might be nationalized again like in 1933, however.

The entire eurodollar market and its $70+ trillion debt assets (debt non-Americans owe to other non-Americans) will be thrown under the bus completely. America to rest of the world: Take it up the ass, byol (bring your own lube).

^^^ this is WHY countries are making moves in hedging King Dollar, why their Central Banks are buying up gold. Not because they are going to roll out any BRICS alternate currency bullshit. But because all of them are going to be defaulting on their debt and thus their debt-based currencies and expect us to do the same.

But the sovereign debt crisis that forces some form of the above will probably happen in a major country other than the US first. The US will probably be last. This is why King Dollar is still 'kinging' quite well despite the fact we are unsustainable adding $1 trillion to our national debt every 100 days now.

So we'll be able to sit back and watch what works or not. If we are smart we will. Clearly there are people who have been planning this out here in US who will.

I am thinking the requisite sovereign debt crisis will hit first in the EU, UK and Japan. In that order.

CBCD part 2:

I said gold could back the CBCD. But other assets could as well. Like real estate, Capital assets like factories, utilities...and land. Lots, and lots of land.

This was successfully done before with Germany's rentenmark. It's messy and more of a pain to administer than a gold standard. But 2020s Americsa is blessed with way more of such assets than 1920s Weimar Germany. Just the assets the US government directly owns: Buildings, power utilities, LAND is estimated to be worth up to $100 trillion in today's valuation.

Reason that estimates is so high is because the US government has never done a comprehensive global audit of everything it owns. Serously. What has been determined by what is known has been as low as $27 trillion to the high sixties or so, last time I read about this.

And another thing: Like the rentenmark, I think CBCDs will be merely transitional. Because of the degree of control it gives the pols over our lives will clearly be abused - just like how Canada debanked the truckers and those who aided them - it won't last that long.

So yes, all the WEF CBCD Horror Porn found on PatNet & elsewhere wil probably come to be one way or another. They won't be able to help themselves.

But that will push the Coming Greater Conflict to a head sooner, too. And that will be a good thing. At the very least, CBCDs will be ended. At least the appearance will be made.

You can't make an omelet w/o breaking some eggs.

UkraineIsFucked says

Good news: Your mortgage, car loan and credit card lenders will be equally fucked, entirely or mostly. Debt jubilee, kiddies!

Not at all. CBDC will not be a new currency, just a holding device for good old fiat dollars. It will start with anyone who receives government checks to receive them in a digital wallet. That includes all federal employees, retiree, and SS recipients. Since most Americans will thus acquire a digital wallet, private entities will start using them for payments. Corporations will have them, too. Now every person and entity in the country is a slave to whoever can shut down one's digital wallet. However, there will be cutouts so the drug cartels can get paid without being tracked.

HeadSet says

Not at all. CBDC will not be a new currency, just a holding device for good old fiat dollars. It will start with anyone who receives government checks to receive them in a digital wallet. That includes all federal employees, retiree, and SS recipients. Since most Americans will thus acquire a digital wallet, private entities will start using them for payments. Corporations will have them, too. Now every person and entity in the country is a slave to whoever can shut down one's digital wallet. However, there will be cutouts so the drug cartels can get paid without being tracked.

That may very well be how they roll it out. In fact, most likely. But you are ignoring the Great Reset aspects to all this.

Anyway, that is just my take on this. Most likley: they'll fuck it all up.

UkraineIsTotallyFucked says

But you are ignoring the Great Reset aspects to all this.

The easiest and time proven way to get a Reset on unpayable government debt is hyperinflation. Hyperinflation will destroy a person's mortgage debt but make up for it with unpayable high taxes.

So, what's the 100% winning hand?

NuttBoxer says

If you don't understand how bad inflation is already, go out and get a minimum wage job in any state, and live on that. Used to be possible...

Came across this and it reminded me of “Married with Children” episodes. 😂

Close up for the memes:

AD says

perhaps Bitcoin (BTC) has unwittingly become the more modern digital "25 cent silver piece" and hedge to the fiat currency system ?

No. It's highly volatile, easily stolen, easily manipulated. Real money requires that it be counterfeit proof, increase at a gradual, predictable pace, and be physical and easily divisible.

Patrick says

Lot of ignorance going on.

There isn't 27 trillion dollars in circulation.

UkraineIsTotallyFucked says

There isn't 27 trillion dollars in circulation.

Maybe he is talking about Zimbabwe.

True, there are not 27 trillion dollars in physical US currency in circulation:

https://www.visualcapitalist.com/many-u-s-dollar-bills-circulation/

In total, there is a total of about $1.5 trillion in U.S. physical currency in circulation, and roughly 80% of this value comes from the 11.5 billion $100 notes that are in circulation.

On the other hand, the value of all US dollar denominated assets is much larger than 27 trillion, per gab.ai:

What is the value of all US dollar denominated assets?

As of March 13, 2024, the total value of all US dollar denominated assets is difficult to determine precisely, as it fluctuates constantly due to market conditions and other factors. However, according to the US Federal Reserve's Flow of Funds report, the total value of US financial assets (which includes cash, bank deposits, stocks, bonds, and more) was approximately $145 trillion at the end of Q3 2021. This number does not include real estate, gold, or other non-financial assets, so the overall value of all US dollar assets would be even higher.

Are you guys really assuming that figure was physical paper? How would that make any sense as a measure of a fiat currency? It's a digital measurement.

And 1.5 in circulation for 27 trillion claimed is 5%, that's WAY higher than what banks are required to have on hand.

UkraineIsTotallyFucked says

Lot of ignorance going on.

Yes!

Patrick says

US dollar denominated assets

Dollar denominated assets are not dollars and more than construction plans measured in metric are actual centimeters and grams.

NuttBoxer says

Are you guys really assuming that figure was physical paper?

No. Only you are assuming what we are assuming.NuttBoxer says

And 1.5 in circulation for 27 trillion claimed is 5%, that's WAY higher than what banks are required to have on hand.

So?

Still doesn't prove there are 27 trillion of them in circulation.

All valid, but real physical silver as currency would be better.

Patrick says

All valid, but real physical silver as currency would be better.

As long as transactions can be traced via the blockchain ledger, all that is bullshit.

https://crypto.news/learn/blockchain-forensics-how-authorities-track-crypto-transactions/

True crypto would provide untraceable transactions. Would that mean kiddie porn scum, human traffickers and drug smugglers get away with their shit?

YES

Freedom isn't fucking free kiddies. Sorry to break it to you. I don't like it either. But anything worth having has a price.

UkraineIsTotallyFucked says

NuttBoxer says

Are you guys really assuming that figure was physical paper?

No. Only you are assuming what we are assuming

UkraineIsTotallyFucked says

Still doesn't prove there are 27 trillion of them in circulation.

What the fuck!? "them". After you say I'm assuming, you refuse to assign a value to very obvious const variable you've declared. Why? Just admit you fucked up. We all do. But it seems like some sort of disease lately, that people want to try and appear infallible. Go ahead and search, you will find plenty of examples on here where I'm wrong about something, and I ADMIT IT.

I don't mind being wrong, I do mind being blind...

UkraineIsTotallyFucked says

Would that mean kiddie porn scum, human traffickers and drug smugglers get away with their shit?

YES

NO. You not stopping those people allows them to get away with it. Their customers allow them to get away with it. The transaction medium is irrelevant to the morality of the intent.

NuttBoxer says

After you say I'm assuming

Uhm. Because you were:

NuttBoxer says

Are you guys really assuming that figure was physical paper?

No. Only you are assuming what we are assuming.

NuttBoxer says

you refuse to assign a value to very obvious const variable you've declared

What value?

$27 trillion in financial instruments does not equate to 27 trillion dollars in existence.

I didn't fuck up. I am not sure what you are doing, tho.

NuttBoxer says

NO. You not stopping those people allows them to get away with it.

The US government allowed Jeffrey Epstein to run a child rape ring for years.

They're not even trying to stop it, they're trying to monopolize it. They're criminals.

There are people right now that make honey traps for child sexual predators, arrange a meetup, and the police do nothing once the person is located and found. Recently, some groups have taken more serious action, like beating the perpetrator to a pulp instead of just recording them.

richwicks says

NuttBoxer says

NO. You not stopping those people allows them to get away with it.

The US government allowed Jeffrey Epstein to run a child rape ring for years.

They're not even trying to stop it, they're trying to monopolize it. They're criminals.

There are people right now that make honey traps for child sexual predators, arrange a meetup, and the police do nothing once the person is located and found. Recently, some groups have taken more serious action, like beating the perpetrator to a pulp instead of just recording them.

I wish they could do these type of stings for the Mexican cartel types who are pushing fentanyl. It would be just more medieval.

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Patrick says

All valid, but real physical silver as currency would be better.

yep.

If you don't hold it, you don't own it.

Onvacation says

Patrick says

All valid, but real physical silver as currency would be better.

yep.

If you don't hold it, you don't own it.

whats are the implications for those who own Silver Trust (ticker: SLV) ?

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HeadSet says

The easiest and time proven way to get a Reset on unpayable government debt is hyperinflation. Hyperinflation will destroy a person's mortgage debt but make up for it with unpayable high taxes.

AD says

whats are the implications for those who own Silver Trust (ticker: SLV) ?

SLV is used to buy options to suppress the price if the material.

If every American just bought 2 ounces of silver per year, that would consume every available ounce mined in a year. It would break everything.

AD says

whats are the implications for those who own Silver Trust (ticker: SLV) ?

Onvacation says

If you don't hold it, you don't own it.

UkraineIsTotallyFucked says

Rate cut? (I don't think so unless maybe jobless numbers radically rise but others here think Powell is Biden's butt boy...)

For those that have been paying attention to my ramblings, the Fed is gonna reduce then eliminate QT over the next 5 months or so. They are running up against a hard limit as to how far they can reduce their balance sheet.

The market will perceive this as a rate cut. Then the Fed will start to cut the rate itself.

The Fed/Federal government has to prop up capital gains so that taxes flow freely into the Blue State coffers. If they don't some state/city checks are gonna start bouncing.

Misc says

The market will perceive this as a rate cut

Copium thinking.

Misc says

For those that have been paying attention to my ramblings, the Fed is gonna reduce then eliminate QT over the next 5 months or so. They are running up against a hard limit as to how far they can reduce their balance sheet.

The market will perceive this as a rate cut. Then the Fed will start to cut the rate itself.

The Fed/Federal government has to prop up capital gains so that taxes flow freely into the Blue State coffers. If they don't some state/city checks are gonna start bouncing.

Yeah, California's 2024 budget is $292 billion with a $73 billion deficit.

So the S&P 500 will have another great year in 2024 just it went up about 26% in 2023 ? The problem will this is that the capital gains tax likely will be paid in early 2025 after California's deficit year of 2024.

And that means California having to borrow (if allowed by state law) at a rate of at least 5% even for short duration like 1 or 3 years ?

https://calmatters.org/politics/capitol/2024/02/california-budget-deficit-balloons/

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The folks who get the big gains are going to file their Quarterlies, just like they always do.

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That is why I was trying to explain to Eman when he was overly promoting California, or at least his zip code or county.

California likely will see another round of tax increases to help cover for that $73 billion deficit (for a budget of $292 billion), which may ultimately depress real estate values.

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Misc says

The folks who get the big gains are going to file their Quarterlies, just like they always do.

Okay, I understand as they pay their income taxes "in advance" throughout the year instead of a couple of months after the tax year is over. I suspect this is the +$20 million net worth households.

I wonder if there will be a major exodus if California raises taxes this year or next year, as far as those folks who file their quarterlies, such as they go to Nevada.
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