patrick.net

NuttBoxer says

If you don't understand how bad inflation is already, go out and get a minimum wage job in any state, and live on that. Used to be possible...

Was it really?

UkraineIsFucked says

Central Banks like bullets don't have agency to enact/raise taxes. That is what legislatures do.

Yes they do. The Central Banks can simply increase interest rates, whenever they damned well please. They can deny a loan to congress. They can printe a trillion dollars and hand it out to a few 1000 "friends" to buy strategic industries.

It's our actual government. They can buy anything from a person to a war. They have unlimited funds. They aren't audited. You have no idea how corrupt it is, and as long as people don't know how fucking corrupt it is, it's going to stay this corrupt. The people that run the Federal Reserve don't work. Why would they? All they make, is money.

richwicks says

Yes they do. The Central Banks can simply increase interest rates, whenever they damned well please.

That's not a tax.

Buy a dictionary.

richwicks says

Yes they do. The Central Banks can simply increase interest rates, whenever they damned well please. They can deny a loan to congress. They can printe a trillion dollars and hand it out to a few 1000 "friends" to buy strategic industries.

I thought the law and/or its charter only allows the Fed to buy US Treasuries and mortgage backed securities.

I agree Rich as far as denying a loan as they can refuse to engage in quantitative easing (QE) to add more US Treasuries to their balance sheet.

At least the Fed's balance sheet shows $7.7 trillion compared to its all time high of $9 trillion in 2022. It was $4 trillion in early 2020 and $4.5 trillion in January 2016.

https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/bst_recenttrends.htm

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To be more accurate, they can attempt to manipulate interest rates. And lowering rates increases inflation, which is the largest tax on us. If you only believe taxes are what comes out of your check, that's because central bankers are very good at lying.

Interest rates, just like everything else are subject to free market forces.

AD says

Technically, he didn't want the money because the Hutts who ran Tatooine forced everyone to use THEIR issued money and charged an exchange 'fee' when converting Republic money.

UkraineIsFucked says

Technically, he didn't want the money because the Hutts who ran Tatooine forced everyone to use THEIR issued money and charged an exchange 'fee' when converting Republic money.

There is no mention or reference in the script to that, and I don't recall that when watching any of the Star Wars movies. So that must have been some context or background information you read in a novel or learned at a comic convention.



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Jerome Hayden "Jay" Powell, Chairman of the Fed .


Jesuit Prep School and Jesuit Georgetown educated. Born in DC, his Father was a lecturer at Jesuit Georgetown. His Grandfather, James J. Hayden, was the Dean of Jesuit Columbus Law School.

What is the Fed to do?

Inflation expectations have been rising across the yield curve, the stock market seems like it is headed for a massive blow off top, and pure speculation is rampant with Bitcoin soaring. Normally the Fed would raise rates to try to reign in this nonsense, but all the media is talking about is that we've had a soft landing and the Democrats are pushing for lower rates. On top of that quandary, the Fed is going to run up against some real problems in the next few months with its Quotative Tightening program (where it is letting its balance sheet run down). The banking system needs a certain amount of liquidity and the Fed knows it is running up against a hard limit by letting the bonds run off its balance sheet. The bond vigilantes are gonna through a fit when the Fed stops Quotative Tightening. There's no telling how high they will push long term rates including mortgages when the Fed is forced into that position.

Misc says

Inflation expectations have been rising across the yield curve, the stock market seems like it is headed for a massive blow off top, and pure speculation is rampant with Bitcoin soaring.

It would have to result in demand outpacing supply causing an inflationary pressure, such as consumers being significantly motivated by the wealth effect or cashing out of their capital gains.

Keep on monitoring underlying or core inflation (inflation minus food and energy) especially automobile repair, housing costs and healthcare.

I still think if the overall inflation rate, PCE, averages below 3% for 6 consecutive months that the Federal Reserve will start to lower the Federal Funds rate which is at a 23 year high of 5.5%.
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fiat currency system with Federal Reserve actions producing a desired effect of guvmint reported annual inflation of 2.5%

look at the coining of money as silver such as the "value" of a 25 cent silver piece

perhaps Bitcoin (BTC) has unwittingly become the more modern digital "25 cent silver piece" and hedge to the fiat currency system ?

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Patrick says

Wait for the CBDC Great Reset Combo rollout.

Something like this.

You'll be allowed to move your old cash only up to a certain amount into your CBDC wallet, only a certain fraction after that (10 cents to the old dollar?) up to another capped amount. Rest after that, nada or there will be a trading exchange with trillions of stranded old dollars chasing much fewer new CBDCs.

You have an anuity or structured settlement that pays you in old dollars? Too bad. Those assets will become worthless. You own bonds? Same thing. But technically they won't be defaulted on. Neat trick, eh?

Good news: Your mortgage, car loan and credit card lenders will be equally fucked, entirely or mostly. Debt jubilee, kiddies!

You will be paid on CBCDs, pay your taxes in it. Any new debt you take on will be denominated in CBCDs.

Stocks and other equity assets should be ok. The
stock markets will be repriced in CBCDs. Dividends will be paid out in CBCDs, as will the company revenues that pay those out.

US governmemt debt to GDP ratio will fall to near zero. This is all forms of government debt. Not in old dollar terms but in CBDC terms. 'Near' vs 'zero' depending on how much pensions are bailed out.

Said pensions might be completely fucked or partially converted to CBCDs as I described in the above. But a severe haircut at a minimum will be involved. State and local level public pensions more likely to be fucked. Private sector pensions totally fucked.

So, about those fucked pensions. There might be entitlement reform where SS, welfare, etc. will be all rolled up into a wimp-ass version of UBI or UBS or combo thereof we will all be getting...unless you post the wrong shit on X or even PatNet. Or dare to apply for a job while being white-male.

Your average Joe & Suzie Sixpac will come out of this ok. Hell, they might come out this even better. Esp if their mortgage and student loan debt basically get wiped out. And the UBI trickle keeps them from starving at least.

Companies...especially those most involved in the Real Economy..will be ok. Health care may be shaken up quite a bit, tho.

Investors will need carrots to get them to buy US treasuries or even mortgage bundles again. So believe it or not but CBCD being tied into a gold standard, with regulated redemption, could be in the cards just to do that. Besides gold will be needed for international settlements anyway. At first, all privately held gold might be nationalized again like in 1933, however.

The entire eurodollar market and its $70+ trillion debt assets (debt non-Americans owe to other non-Americans) will be thrown under the bus completely. America to rest of the world: Take it up the ass, byol (bring your own lube).

^^^ this is WHY countries are making moves in hedging King Dollar, why their Central Banks are buying up gold. Not because they are going to roll out any BRICS alternate currency bullshit. But because all of them are going to be defaulting on their debt and thus their debt-based currencies and expect us to do the same.

But the sovereign debt crisis that forces some form of the above will probably happen in a major country other than the US first. The US will probably be last. This is why King Dollar is still 'kinging' quite well despite the fact we are unsustainable adding $1 trillion to our national debt every 100 days now.

So we'll be able to sit back and watch what works or not. If we are smart we will. Clearly there are people who have been planning this out here in US who will.

I am thinking the requisite sovereign debt crisis will hit first in the EU, UK and Japan. In that order.

CBCD part 2:

I said gold could back the CBCD. But other assets could as well. Like real estate, Capital assets like factories, utilities...and land. Lots, and lots of land.

This was successfully done before with Germany's rentenmark. It's messy and more of a pain to administer than a gold standard. But 2020s Americsa is blessed with way more of such assets than 1920s Weimar Germany. Just the assets the US government directly owns: Buildings, power utilities, LAND is estimated to be worth up to $100 trillion in today's valuation.

Reason that estimates is so high is because the US government has never done a comprehensive global audit of everything it owns. Serously. What has been determined by what is known has been as low as $27 trillion to the high sixties or so, last time I read about this.

And another thing: Like the rentenmark, I think CBCDs will be merely transitional. Because of the degree of control it gives the pols over our lives will clearly be abused - just like how Canada debanked the truckers and those who aided them - it won't last that long.

So yes, all the WEF CBCD Horror Porn found on PatNet & elsewhere wil probably come to be one way or another. They won't be able to help themselves.

But that will push the Coming Greater Conflict to a head sooner, too. And that will be a good thing. At the very least, CBCDs will be ended. At least the appearance will be made.

You can't make an omelet w/o breaking some eggs.

UkraineIsFucked says

Good news: Your mortgage, car loan and credit card lenders will be equally fucked, entirely or mostly. Debt jubilee, kiddies!

Not at all. CBDC will not be a new currency, just a holding device for good old fiat dollars. It will start with anyone who receives government checks to receive them in a digital wallet. That includes all federal employees, retiree, and SS recipients. Since most Americans will thus acquire a digital wallet, private entities will start using them for payments. Corporations will have them, too. Now every person and entity in the country is a slave to whoever can shut down one's digital wallet. However, there will be cutouts so the drug cartels can get paid without being tracked.

HeadSet says

Not at all. CBDC will not be a new currency, just a holding device for good old fiat dollars. It will start with anyone who receives government checks to receive them in a digital wallet. That includes all federal employees, retiree, and SS recipients. Since most Americans will thus acquire a digital wallet, private entities will start using them for payments. Corporations will have them, too. Now every person and entity in the country is a slave to whoever can shut down one's digital wallet. However, there will be cutouts so the drug cartels can get paid without being tracked.

That may very well be how they roll it out. In fact, most likely. But you are ignoring the Great Reset aspects to all this.

Anyway, that is just my take on this. Most likley: they'll fuck it all up.

UkraineIsTotallyFucked says

But you are ignoring the Great Reset aspects to all this.

The easiest and time proven way to get a Reset on unpayable government debt is hyperinflation. Hyperinflation will destroy a person's mortgage debt but make up for it with unpayable high taxes.

So, what's the 100% winning hand?

NuttBoxer says

If you don't understand how bad inflation is already, go out and get a minimum wage job in any state, and live on that. Used to be possible...

Came across this and it reminded me of “Married with Children” episodes. 😂

Close up for the memes:

AD says

perhaps Bitcoin (BTC) has unwittingly become the more modern digital "25 cent silver piece" and hedge to the fiat currency system ?

No. It's highly volatile, easily stolen, easily manipulated. Real money requires that it be counterfeit proof, increase at a gradual, predictable pace, and be physical and easily divisible.

Patrick says

Lot of ignorance going on.

There isn't 27 trillion dollars in circulation.

UkraineIsTotallyFucked says

There isn't 27 trillion dollars in circulation.

Maybe he is talking about Zimbabwe.

True, there are not 27 trillion dollars in physical US currency in circulation:

https://www.visualcapitalist.com/many-u-s-dollar-bills-circulation/

In total, there is a total of about $1.5 trillion in U.S. physical currency in circulation, and roughly 80% of this value comes from the 11.5 billion $100 notes that are in circulation.

On the other hand, the value of all US dollar denominated assets is much larger than 27 trillion, per gab.ai:

What is the value of all US dollar denominated assets?

As of March 13, 2024, the total value of all US dollar denominated assets is difficult to determine precisely, as it fluctuates constantly due to market conditions and other factors. However, according to the US Federal Reserve's Flow of Funds report, the total value of US financial assets (which includes cash, bank deposits, stocks, bonds, and more) was approximately $145 trillion at the end of Q3 2021. This number does not include real estate, gold, or other non-financial assets, so the overall value of all US dollar assets would be even higher.

Are you guys really assuming that figure was physical paper? How would that make any sense as a measure of a fiat currency? It's a digital measurement.

And 1.5 in circulation for 27 trillion claimed is 5%, that's WAY higher than what banks are required to have on hand.

UkraineIsTotallyFucked says

Lot of ignorance going on.

Yes!

Patrick says

US dollar denominated assets

Dollar denominated assets are not dollars and more than construction plans measured in metric are actual centimeters and grams.

NuttBoxer says

Are you guys really assuming that figure was physical paper?

No. Only you are assuming what we are assuming.NuttBoxer says

And 1.5 in circulation for 27 trillion claimed is 5%, that's WAY higher than what banks are required to have on hand.

So?

Still doesn't prove there are 27 trillion of them in circulation.

All valid, but real physical silver as currency would be better.