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Taxes


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2022 Jul 11, 5:28pm   16,116 views  227 comments

by GreaterNYCDude   ➕follow (2)   💰tip   ignore  

I've been thinking about this off and on lately, and there's been some recent threads related to the topic, so I figure I'll set up a separate thread.

Until the 16th ammendment was passed in the early 1900's, we got by without fedetal income taxes. Tariffs did the trick. Of course, we were not yet the superpower we became, huge millitary and all, and there were not nearly the federally funded social programs we have today.

Frankly, I don't think your average American realizes how heavily they are taxed. Federal. State (with some excaptions) Property. School. Gas. Sales. Etc.

For most in the middle and upper middle class, federal income tax is the biggest share of taxes paid on a percentage basis.

In a modern captalist economy, it makes more sense to me to tax consumption rather than income.

So why not abolish the federal income tax, and instead have a federal tax on goods and services rendered. Better yet, couple it with a balanced budget amment so that the government can't spend money they don't have.

Taxing goods should be straightforward to implement. Buy a bag of rice, clothes, a house, a car, stock, etc. tax it at a nominal rate to raise sufficent revenue to keep the government running. Tax should apply to individuals and corporations alike. I have no idea what the rate would need to be to replace the lost income income revenue, but there must be a way for the been counters to figure that out.

Same holds for services. From your lawyer to your plumber to your accountant.. services rendered should also be taxed... possibly at a different rate than physical goods, since we are a "service based economy".

Just thinking out loud here.. In the 21st century there MUST be a better way to raise revenue than income tax and the various loopholes used to reduce or even avoid ones tax burden.

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66   HeadSet   2024 Feb 4, 7:14am  

clambo says

If you have income derived in California, California will tax you.
Deferring the tax might not avoid it.

California tried that with military retirement pay. California had a tax claim on any retirement pay that was "earned" in California. That is, if a military member was stationed in California for 10 years out of a 30 year career, California wanted to tax 1/3 of the retirement pay. The DoD did not cooperate with this scheme, however, and did not remit payments to California. It seems that if California could tax any income derived from California regardless of residency, then California should tax any state pensioner that move out of CA. I remember such a discussion earlier on this blog and someone pointed out that a judge ruled against it.
67   WookieMan   2024 Feb 4, 9:32am  

Never understood why any professional athlete would play in CA with the amounts they get paid. Technically you're paid in the state you play. So away games are paid in that state. But still half your games are played in your home state. That's a shit load of state taxes that could be avoided in FL or TX.

I get they make fuck you money most the time, but I like the strategy of deferment. It likely won't work though as his place of employment was CA. I suppose the Dodgers could create an LLC in Texas or Florida and he moves and gets paid there. Then pay the remaining contract in an income tax free state.

Baseball contracts are guaranteed. But if he dies and has a family they won't get that money unless he built that in. Also his agent is likely flaming pissed off about it. Has to wait 10 years to get his real pay day. It's risky, but living off $2M/yr should be a cake walk when the team pays for everything. My BIL is a professional athlete, so no, I'm not talking out my ass.
71   HeadSet   2024 Mar 31, 8:27am  

The_Deplorable says





Rain water does not go into sewers. And if she is talking storm drains, only paved property has runoff. One's grassy one acre lot has no runoff any more than someone else's 1/2 acre lot. If one has a bigger lot, then one is using more gravity and sunshine as well. In that case, I want a carbon credit for all the CO2 my lawn took out of the air.
72   DOGEWontAmountToShit   2024 Mar 31, 8:35am  

HeadSet says

The_Deplorable says






Rain water does not go into sewers. And if she is talking storm drains, only paved property has runoff. One's grassy one acre lot has no runoff any more than someone else's 1/2 acre lot. If one has a bigger lot, then one is using more gravity and sunshine as well. In that case, I want a carbon credit for all the CO2 my lawn took out of the air.


Greentards are gonna tard.
73   The_Deplorable   2024 Mar 31, 3:20pm  

HeadSet says
"Rain water does not go into sewers."

Yes it does. That is the problem with most water treatment plants in Toronto and the US.
74   WookieMan   2024 Mar 31, 3:26pm  

The_Deplorable says


HeadSet says

"Rain water does not go into sewers."

Yes it does. That is the problem with most water treatment plants in Toronto and the US.


Not legally. There are separate storm sewers. They're not shit and piss sewers. Yes people illegally tap into them, but you're 1,000% wrong on this.

The bigger problems for sewer systems is "flushable" wipes. And people illegally draining rain water into them. I know my shit in this realm, pun intended. Heatset is correct. The base standard municipal ordinances do not allow you to pump rainwater or gutters into the actual sewers.
75   The_Deplorable   2024 Mar 31, 4:42pm  

WookieMan says
"Not legally. There are separate storm sewers."

No, we do not have separate storm sewers. That is why the entire East Coast of the
United States (for the most part) has Flesh-Eating Bacteria that can kill in less than
24 hours. Stay away.
76   WookieMan   2024 Mar 31, 5:50pm  

The_Deplorable says

WookieMan says
"Not legally. There are separate storm sewers."

No, we do not have separate storm sewers. That is why the entire East Coast of the
United States (for the most part) has Flesh-Eating Bacteria that can kill in less than
24 hours. Stay away.

Yes, you do have separate storm sewers. Let me know where you're at on the east coast. I can set up a conference phone call most likely with a public works engineer in your area if Patrick can trade info. You're hung up on the word sewer. Install both and get back to me. I did it for my parents subdivision. You're out of your element.

The water on the street does not go into the shit and piss system. Too much Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles I guess? Sure storm sewers are gross, but they're not the same. Shit is processed. Storm sewers run off into lakes, rivers, streams and retention ponds. Rain run off. Not diarrhea and piss. That goes to a sewage facility to get cleaned up.
77   AD   2024 Mar 31, 6:42pm  

Florida panhandle does not mix storm water with sewer water. The storm water is handled by a different piping system.
78   AD   2024 Mar 31, 6:47pm  

The problem in the Florida panhandle is that all that storm water generated from converting every square inch of sand or vegetation to concrete and asphalt jungle is going to end up mostly in the Gulf of Mexico via storm water retention lakes/ponds and ditches/canals.

You get enough storm water in one area and you create red tide risks, and due to the circulation pattern of the Gulf of Mexico, that ends up off of Tampa, then Key West, and the around Florida with the Gulf Stream.
79   The_Deplorable   2024 Mar 31, 9:37pm  

WookieMan says
"Yes, you do have separate storm sewers."

You are dreaming. "Over Half of U.S. Beaches Had 'Potentially Unsafe' Levels of Poop
Contamination Last Year." In other words, if you step in the water you might be dead
in less than 24 hours from Flesh Eating bacteria. In other words the USA lacks very
basic infrastructure like Water Treatment Plants - very cheap and very efficient! The elites
are very busy sending billion$ to Ukraine and not a dime for We The People."

https://www.yahoo.com/entertainment/over-half-u-beaches-had-204747164.html
80   WookieMan   2024 Apr 1, 2:15am  

The_Deplorable says

WookieMan says

"Yes, you do have separate storm sewers."

You are dreaming. "Over Half of U.S. Beaches Had 'Potentially Unsafe' Levels of Poop
Contamination Last Year." In other words, if you step in the water you might be dead
in less than 24 hours from Flesh Eating bacteria. In other words the USA lacks very
basic infrastructure like Water Treatment Plants - very cheap and very efficient! The elites
are very busy sending billion$ to Ukraine and not a dime for We The People."

https://www.yahoo.com/entertainment/over-half-u-beaches-had-204747164.html

You don't understand the systems. Yes, people actually connect rainwater systems to the sewage system illegally. When that gets overburdened, yes it has to be dumped somewhere. Those are poorly run areas and you should be concerned about a lot of your infrastructure. Our town just redid our sewage plant and installed more storm sewers to dump into retention ponds so rain water that people illegally hooked up into the sewer system doesn't get dumped into our creek mixed with shit and piss due to overflow.

As I think I said, you're out of your element on this topic. Chicago has one of the biggest wastewater systems on the planet. Has one of the biggest fresh water sources on the planet. Take the time to watch it. https://youtu.be/aVtpGJNg3bE?si=vr1aJkvkZwAPRwGy There are plenty of others out there about Chicago. And yes, I hate Chicago and IL, but they do get some things right including infrastructure, nukes and wind power.

Northern IL is probably the best areas on the planet for public works. I don't work in it myself, but I go to conferences and talk to professionals in the industry almost daily. Mainly my wife, but I am friends with others and talk with people that are in charge of over 15M people's infrastructure. And that might be low.

Stick to programming or whatever you do. I'll admit I don't know programming and don't claim I do. But you're out of your element here. I can post more links too if you want. It just won't contain yahoo.com/"entertainment" Your beaches are trash because you don't care. Pay a little higher taxes and get the right people in office and positions to fix it. It's easier than you think.
81   HeadSet   2024 Apr 1, 6:46am  

WookieMan says

Pay a little higher taxes and get the right people in office and positions to fix it. It's easier than you think.

Around here a few years back, we had high bacteria in the beach water in an old waterfront neighborhoods where the houses were on septic systems. The solution was to extend the county sewer into those neighborhoods and require the residents to pay tap fees.
82   fdhfoiehfeoi   2024 Apr 1, 7:33am  

File my taxes again with no facial recognition, and received a paper check, because I don't link my account.
83   GreaterNYCDude   2024 Apr 1, 8:14am  

The whole tax system in the US is bizarre. Like most things, it's evolved into a quagmire designed to selectively reward certain people / industries / etc.

Upper middle class gets screwed. (And I suspect most of us here fall into that category) We make too much to qualify for most deductions / credits, but don't have FU money where are can pay accounts to set up tax advantaged trusts, shell LLCs or other complex instruments to legally minimize our tax burden.

Plus between federal, state, local, sales and use, excise taxes plus fees and other hidden charges, I'd say 50% of my gross income goes right back to the government leviathan in one way or another.
84   WookieMan   2024 Apr 1, 8:56am  

HeadSet says

WookieMan says


Pay a little higher taxes and get the right people in office and positions to fix it. It's easier than you think.

Around here a few years back, we had high bacteria in the beach water in an old waterfront neighborhoods where the houses were on septic systems. The solution was to extend the county sewer into those neighborhoods and require the residents to pay tap fees.

It happens. I'm not saying it doesn't. But there are separate systems for rain run off and shit/piss in pipes. Deplorable just doesn't understand how it works. I'm trying to show him. It only gets dumped in extreme rain events in most municipalities. Hence why I posted the video. Chicago was a swamp more so than FL. They've all but eliminated beaches that get contaminated in the last 10 years. Lake Michigan in Chicago almost has crystal clear Caribbean type water. Wasn't the case 20 years ago. This was about 12 years ago and the water clarity is only better and taken with an old ass iPhone.


Septic is a different animal as it's not public works, but private. Who knows what corners people cut there. Surprised if you're near a beach, on the East coast I believe where you're at that it's septic. Not saying it isn't. I know Florida has a lot of septic near water. Didn't think further north would.

Rain runoff is of no harm to waterways besides residual oil and chemicals, which isn't good either. Shit and piss are the biggest issues and generally go into a sewer pipe, not storm sewer.... unless you live in LA or SF where the toilet is the street.
85   RWSGFY   2024 Apr 1, 8:59am  

NuttBoxer says

File my taxes again with no facial recognition, and received a paper check, because I don't link my account.


Still waiting for "fecal recognition" to pop up
in my tax filing process. Another year and still nothing...
86   HeadSet   2024 Apr 1, 9:48am  

WookieMan says

Surprised if you're near a beach, on the East coast I believe where you're at that it's septic.

We are in agreement here about storm drains and sewer systems. The septic systems I mentioned were legacy from when the county was rural and most houses had septic and well. As the population grew, sewers were put in. However, there are LOTS of properties in the still rural Virginia areas that are waterfront with a septic system:

Salt water:
Every dock you see on this river is attached to a property that has a house with septic.


https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/336-Loblolly-Rd-Weems-VA-22576/2054501457_zpid/

Fresh Water:
This is on Lake Gaston: All docks are attached to houses with septic.


https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/39-Saponi-Dr-Ebony-VA-23845/230525567_zpid/
87   The_Deplorable   2024 Apr 1, 9:49am  

"Over Half of U.S. Beaches Had 'Potentially Unsafe' Levels of Poop Contamination Last Year."
See https://www.yahoo.com/entertainment/over-half-u-beaches-had-204747164.html

WookieMan says

"You don't understand the systems."


What is there to understand given that most beaches in the USA are contaminated with raw sewage?
You are arguing from ignorance, give it a rest.
88   WookieMan   2024 Apr 1, 10:11am  

The_Deplorable says

What is there to understand given that most beaches in the USA are contaminated with raw sewage?
You are arguing from ignorance, give it a rest.

Because you don't understand the systems. You live in a shit area likely, with shitty infrastructure, that literally puts shit in the water. At no point have I said shit isn't getting in the water. The_Deplorable says

No, we do not have separate storm sewers. That is why the entire East Coast of the
United States (for the most part) has Flesh-Eating Bacteria that can kill in less than
24 hours. Stay away.

This is what you said. Headset pointed out septic. Gave examples. I'm sure there are zero drainage ditches or drains in your area. And if there are, everyone is dumping their shit in there....? You DON'T understand that people illegally hook up their rainwater collection, GUTTERS OR SUMP PUMP to the sewer itself. That is supposed to go into the STORM sewer, not the SHIT sewer. Hence why waste sewers have to dump the overflow because of idiots and your beaches get shit. You live around morons.

Waste treatment plants are based off the number of plumbing fixtures for public utilities. When you add water that should go into the ground you fuck the whole system up and they have to release sewage or it causes damage and a fuck ton of flack from the EPA. Again. You're out of you element on this.

As I commented on with Headset I basically said I don't know how the leech field effects water ways with septic. It's not a public entity. That's not my realm. Public for sure isn't your realm with sewers and storm sewers/drainage are public.
89   GreaterNYCDude   2024 Apr 1, 10:16am  

First I am on a septic. Second, so long as it's matained, it's rarely an issue. Third all tanks (and corresponding plumbing) have a finite life. That's when problems arise, particularly if the system was grandfathered in.

If your on a septic tank and it's near a water source, if the tank fails, you have issues and a costly cleanup

This is why there are minimum setbacks and clearances between water supply lines and wastewater discharge lines. It's the old saying, don't shit where you eat.

As I recall that's why Mass has Title V or whatever it is. When a house changes hands one needs to show the septic system is in working order. A dye test would show if there are any leaks.

Civil engineering isn't my forte, (it's been a LONG time since my Intro to Wastewater technology class) but surface run off is different than grey water which is different than sewage.

The issue is that we haven't invested in infrastructure significantly in 50 years and many municipal treatment systems are undersized for peak demand.

The article about 50% of beaches having one or more days of elevated fecal levels says as much.

“from sources such as urban runoff, sewage overflows and factory farms can contain pathogens that threaten the health of swimmers."

Urban runoff.. people (and animals) crap in the streets and it finds its way to the ocean. (Used to be) Rare but it happens

Farms.. Animal poop and / or natural fertilizer finds it's way to the rivers and streams.

Sewage overflows... Municipal treatment system is overwhelmed (think halftime during the Superbowl) and the system can't keep up with demand.

Dilution is still the solution to pollution, but microbes love warm water. Biogrowth is exponential. Under the wrong conditions water quality can go from good to crap fairly quickly.

If my taxes were going to public works projects and infrastructure I wouldn't mind paying them as much.
90   The_Deplorable   2024 Apr 1, 10:34am  

"Over Half of U.S. Beaches Had 'Potentially Unsafe' Levels of Poop Contamination Last Year."
See https://www.yahoo.com/entertainment/over-half-u-beaches-had-204747164.html

WookieMan says "You don't understand the systems."

What is there to understand given that most beaches in the U.S.A. are contaminated with raw sewage?

WookieMan says "You live in a shit area likely, with shitty infrastructure, that literally puts shit in the water."

The entire U.S.A. lives is a "shit area with shitty infrastructure, that literally puts shit in the water."

WookieMan says "You DON'T understand that people illegally hook up their rainwater collection, GUTTERS OR SUMP PUMP to the sewer itself."

It is not the people. It is by design because in the U.S.A. we do not have the infrastructure.

Hence the following headlines...

"Over Half of U.S. Beaches Had 'Potentially Unsafe' Levels of Poop Contamination Last Year."
See https://www.yahoo.com/entertainment/over-half-u-beaches-had-204747164.html

That is why today, in the U.S.A., we have people getting killed from Flesh Eating bacteria.
91   HeadSet   2024 Apr 1, 10:46am  

WookieMan says

I don't know how the leech field effects water ways with septic.

They are safe. In fact, Lake Gaston supplies drinking water to the Virginia Beach area via pipeline, and Lake Gaston has hundreds of houses on its shores. Perk testing is very tight and will be denied if the soil allows either runoff or permeating to ground water.
92   WookieMan   2024 Apr 1, 10:46am  

The_Deplorable says

It is not the people. It is by design because in the U.S.A. we do not have the infrastructure.

Again. Out of your element. Didn't watch the video. You live in legit shitty areas if your beaches are shut down. This is a tax discussion. People bitch about it but then bitch about shitty beach water. What would you rather have? A clean beach? Or shit in your water? It's called accountability or you might have to pay more not to have shit in your water. It's clear your choice....

The fix is really not much and easy in most cases. The fact beaches are shitty is on your community. You live in a shit community if you have shitty water. So sick of the hyper focus on federal government. It has its place, but not going door to door checking if you hooked your sump pump up to the sewer. Your local government has to deal with that with a heavy rain. You literally live in a shitty place. I can't stand Chicago but would swim in Lake Michigan any summer day. We don't put shit in the lake with a metropolitan area with 10M+ people.
93   richwicks   2024 Apr 5, 1:57pm  

WookieMan says

So sick of the hyper focus on federal government. It has its place,


It's the most expensive government, that does the least, and creates money at will. That's the problem.
95   AD   2024 Apr 7, 11:22pm  

richwicks says


WookieMan says

So sick of the hyper focus on federal government. It has its place,

It's the most expensive government, that does the least, and creates money at will. That's the problem.


The key is how much debt payment or service is as a percentage of total expenditures as well examine further as far as percentage of total tax receipts

It was 8% of total expenditures in 2022. I wonder what it was in 2023 and what it will be in 2024.

If it gets to 15% then I can see the Trump Tax cuts expiring and no effect compromise or negotiations as the plan is to increase tax receipts as much as they can to reduce the ratio of debt service to total expenditures.

.
96   richwicks   2024 Apr 8, 12:16am  

AD says

The key is how much debt payment or service is as a percentage of total expenditures as well examine further as far as percentage of total tax receipts


The national debt goes up a trillion dollars in less than 100 days.

This is the national debt graphed on a logarithmic scale, since 1971 - when the US abandoned the gold standard:



That's our debt on a log scale. The country is fucked. People just ignore it and think it's no big deal. The next generation will be a generation of slaves.
97   GreaterNYCDude   2024 Apr 8, 4:58am  

richwicks says

AD says


The key is how much debt payment or service is as a percentage of total expenditures as well examine further as far as percentage of total tax receipts


The national debt goes up a trillion dollars in less than 100 days.

This is the national debt graphed on a logarithmic scale, since 1971 - when the US abandoned the gold standard:



That's our debt on a log scale. The country is fucked. People just ignore it and think it's no big deal. The next generation will be a generation of slaves.

But I remember them saying this in the 80s... How their kids (in other words anyone Gen X or younger) would be debt slaves to Japan (this was before the rise of China).

Who is going to for close on the US? The only way it falls apart if the dollar is no longer the currency of preference for the international community... But what are you going to replace the dollar with?

In the late 1990s and early 2000 everyone thought it would be the Euro... How'd that work out?

Millions still come to this contry for a chance at a better life, legally or otherwise.

Yes taxes suck, and the system in many ways is broken, but we're still the "least bad" option. We're that not the case, people would be leaving America in droves for opportunities elsewhere.

Taxes in Europe make the US (almost) look reasonable. The disconnect is that unless you know how to play the game, have a solid business and a good account, you can't take full advantage of the system which admittedly is rigged to help corporations and special interests at the expense of the 9 to 5 middle class wage slave.
98   clambo   2024 Apr 8, 6:20am  

Are you all aware that the USA operated with no income tax for about a century? There were 1. tariffs on imported goods 2. tax on spirit alcohol.

WWI cost a bundle. Then, women got the vote, then Prohibition. Here came 1. taxes 2. ATF, FBI, IRS, etc.

George Washington warned about the USA avoiding "foreign entanglements." WWI was not our fight.

We don't need most Federal departments; the Dept. of Defense today is needed, but it's overly large and expensive.

I was talking to a deluded liberal MD friend of mine who resides in San Diego; he thinks he's gonna owe $100,000 in taxes for 2023.
He doesn't mind, maybe he likes the reverse bragging rights?

But, he's retirement age and he's busting his ass working; he doesn't know how to get off the hamster wheel of debt, spending, and making money.

My actual effective Federal tax rate was around 10% last year; maybe I posted that already somewhere.
99   WookieMan   2024 Apr 8, 8:04am  

clambo says

I was talking to a deluded liberal MD friend of mine who resides in San Diego; he thinks he's gonna owe $100,000 in taxes for 2023.
He doesn't mind, maybe he likes the reverse bragging rights?

Don't conflate bragging with being pissed off and venting about it when 50% of the country pays nothing. I paid my $40k and am pissed about it. It's not attention seeking. I'm legit pissed. Don't care about people being jealous of income. That's always going to exist. If anything I'm jealous of NOT paying $100k in taxes because I know that number. 80% at least of the population doesn't.

I don't think earners really understand how financially illiterate most the population is. A person that gets a return on $60k income with a family of 2 kids, likely paid $0 in federal taxes. Yet they think they paid taxes because they filed. Yes, you did your taxes, it doesn't mean you paid a dime at the end of the day.
100   HeadSet   2024 Apr 8, 8:29am  

WookieMan says

A person that gets a return on $60k income with a family of 2 kids, likely paid $0 in federal taxes.

In the original intent of the income tax when they passed a Constitutional Amendment to allow it, income tax was supposed to apply to only the wealthy. Therefore, keeping with that spirit, the $60k guy should not have to pay it.
101   AD   2024 Apr 8, 8:40am  

WookieMan says


Yet they think they paid taxes because they filed. Yes, you did your taxes, it doesn't mean you paid a dime at the end of the day.


Yes as far as standard deduction, earned income credit (EIC), Affordable Care Act subsidies, etc whereas they pay 0% of their total income and wages to federal income tax (and state income tax) or maybe at most 5% of that (i.e., effective rate for income tax).

They pay "tax" the other ways like Social Security, Medicare, state and local sales tax, property tax, gas tax, etc. For us in Florida which there is a ~80% chance you live in an HOA, you pay a HOA "tax" since the HOA takes on a lot of responsibility that a municipal government would normally take on up North in a non HOA neighborhood.

Income tax comes predominantly from the socioeconomic range of middle class single filers to billionaire class.

.
102   AD   2024 Apr 8, 8:46am  

richwicks says

That's our debt on a log scale. The country is fucked. People just ignore it and think it's no big deal. The next generation will be a generation of slaves.


Yes, but notice China owns a lot less US federal debt compared to what they owned in 2015 ? IRA and 401k owners hold a lot of "investment grade debt" in the form of US Treasuries. Also pension funds like CALPERS and the Federal Reserve balance sheet hold US Treasuries, though the Fed is quantitative tightening (QT).

I suspect they'll start turning the curve and the debt to GDP ratio will drop from currently 121% to 90% (i.e., around 2011 levels) when the Trump tax cuts are expired for about 2 years. It peaked around 132% in early 2020.

They just got to hope the US Treasury 10 Yr steadies below 4%, which historically is around 1.5% greater than annual inflation (and the 30 Year mortgage is historically around 1.5% greater than the 10 Yr Treasury).

.
103   richwicks   2024 Apr 8, 11:40am  

GreaterNYCDude says


But I remember them saying this in the 80s... How their kids (in other words anyone Gen X or younger) would be debt slaves to Japan (this was before the rise of China).

Name anything in the world that can have exponential growth that doesn't end in a collapse.

Anything

The time of fixing this is over. We're going to become a feudal system where our leaders just use the state to finance whatever they won't and stick the rest of the population with debt.
104   AD   2024 Apr 8, 12:54pm  

richwicks says

The time of fixing this is over.


I already see improvement with debt to GDP ratio and I think it will get better when the Trump tax cuts expire and then they are re negotiated into a bipartisan compromise a couple years later.

.
105   HeadSet   2024 Apr 8, 1:20pm  

AD says

I already see improvement with debt to GDP ratio and I think it will get better when the Trump tax cuts expire

When the Trump tax cuts were first implemented, did tax revenue increase? If so, then the increased taxation when the cuts expire may curtain enough economic activity that collections actually decrease.

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