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Gold getting KILLED!


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2022 Jul 20, 6:54pm   36,674 views  226 comments

by stereotomy   ➕follow (0)   ignore  

Now that iTulip is officially defunct, I thought I'd resurrect MEGA's (Malcolm) thread over there and transplant it here. Apologies in advance to @Patrick.

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188   richwicks   2024 Mar 21, 9:50am  

UkraineIsTotallyFucked says


Did you read the article? First paragraph states the proposition is not legally binding.


Most of what Zerohedge is "misleading" at best. I long ago abandoned the site since 90% of it is just garbage. Used to piss me off when they'd post a chart with NOTHING labeling the X or Y axis and the "article" was "this chart needs no explanation" and nobody could tell me what it was.
189   fdhfoiehfeoi   2024 Mar 21, 10:45am  

Some have speculated it was created by the NSA who released an interesting study on digital coin sometime before bitcoin was created. No solid proof, but an interesting theory..
190   Onvacation   2024 Apr 3, 9:48am  

Long Term Trends in Precious Metals
Gold, Up and up and up compared to fiat. Notice the flatline before 1971. Also notice the little bump at the beginning of the chart, that's when FDR federalized gold and made it illegal to own. The late 1970's runup coincided with the Hunt Bro's silver fiasco.


Now silver. Notice the little bump up in the mid 1960's when we took silver completely out of our coinage. (Anyone know what "40% silver" coins are?) Then the big peak in 1980 when the Hunt Brothers tried to "corner the market", "https://www.washingtonpost.com/archive/business/1980/04/27/hunt-brothers-thrill-ride-in-silver-takes-us-close-to-disaster/505507ce-a75b-407b-a407-0ed12cb35a5a/
before the SEC, CFTC, and the Fed shut them down. Also notice the "Iwog peak" in 2011 where a couple of market timers cashed out at just the right time. IMO silver has nowhere to go but up.


191   RayAmerica   2024 Apr 3, 10:16am  

Mark Dice Trying To Trade 1 oz Gold Coin (worth $1800 at the time of the video) for Worthless Random Stuff

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D_x8VswuLwU
192   fdhfoiehfeoi   2024 Apr 4, 9:20am  

Onvacation says

FDR federalized gold and made it illegal to own.


That's an exaggeration, was never illegal.

Onvacation says

Now silver.


Not sure there's data, but would rather see this go back to the 1870's when silver standard was removed. Everything else significant in our financial history is pinned to this one moment.
193   richwicks   2024 Apr 4, 9:48am  

NuttBoxer says

That's an exaggeration, was never illegal.


Yes it was. An individual could have up to 5 ounces of gold bullion meaning coins and bars, anything beyond that was illegal.

People could have gold in the form of jewelry and several things were done to attain that.
194   fdhfoiehfeoi   2024 Apr 4, 9:51am  

It was a voluntary turn in, not mandatory confiscation. Feel free to provide a citation proving otherwise, but Griffin and Sanders both disagree with you. And their collective knowledge on this subject is more than we'll ever forget.
195   richwicks   2024 Apr 4, 10:32am  

NuttBoxer says

It was a voluntary turn in, not mandatory confiscation. Feel free to provide a citation proving otherwise,


Executive Order 6102 - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Executive_Order_6102

It was a bailout of the Federal Reserve that was counterfeiting money.

Executive Order 6102 required all persons to deliver on or before May 1, 1933, all but a small amount of gold coin, gold bullion, and gold certificates owned by them to the Federal Reserve in exchange for $20.67 (equivalent to $487 in 2023)[7] per troy ounce. Under the Trading with the Enemy Act of 1917, as amended by the recently passed Emergency Banking Act of March 9, 1933, a violation of the order was punishable by fine up to $10,000 (equivalent to $235,000 in 2023),[7] up to ten years in prison, or both.


It won't work this time. People who own bullion would rather dump the stuff in the Mariana Trench than give it to the government.
196   AD   2024 Apr 12, 11:13pm  

.

time for a correction to gold price ?

.


.
197   Robert Sproul   2024 Apr 13, 7:15am  

richwicks says


Executive Order 6102 - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Executive_Order_6102

It was a bailout of the Federal Reserve that was counterfeiting money.

Also the Fed 'bought' citizen's gold for 20 bucks and immediately revalued it at $35. That can't have felt too good.
198   Patrick   2024 Apr 15, 10:33pm  




Can someone explain this graph?
199   richwicks   2024 Apr 15, 10:47pm  

Patrick says


Can someone explain this graph?


We might be at the inflection point where the dollar goes to worthlessness and commodities become the only tradeable object, but engh, who knows?

Gold has 3 times become the about 1 billionth of the national debt in terms of ounces. The last time it was 800 dollars when our national debt was about 800 billion in 1981. It did this in 1933 as well, but I'm not looking up the debt. I should produce a graph.

EVENTUALLY this will happen again, but at that point, we might be living in a civil war zone. You'll be able to buy a house for 10 ounces of gold, but you won't want to live there.

What the Federal Reserve has done, I couldn't even imagine 20 years ago. You know what Quantitative Easing was? the Fed created money, it was put into the economy, and Treasury purchased bonds, banks purchased these bonds, and the banks made money off from interest. This is why interest rates were so low, the banks didn't need your money to loan out, they got it from the Treasury.

Austrian Economics says you can frustrate the law of supply and demand, but you cannot stop it. Gold will go up when people perceive it as something worthwhile to own. It is, fairly, a pretty useless metal. It only has worth because "our superiors" think it does.
200   fdhfoiehfeoi   2024 Apr 16, 10:01am  

The bond market has been on the way to implosion for a while. No one has confidence in the US government to repay debt anymore, or in paper money to be honored years from now. That's the high level. Rumor is some VERY powerful buyers have started dumping dollars for real money in the past few weeks. Either way the outcome will be economic collapse. Whether you run to the jails of CDBC, or the freedom of real money on the other side is up to you. If you aren't prepared, I'd guess they'll have some carrots to get you into the cages. Please be prepared...
201   fdhfoiehfeoi   2024 Apr 16, 10:27am  

richwicks says

NuttBoxer says

It was a voluntary turn in, not mandatory confiscation. Feel free to provide a citation proving otherwise,

Executive Order 6102 - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Executive_Order_6102

It was a bailout of the Federal Reserve that was counterfeiting money.

Executive Order 6102 required all persons to deliver on or before May 1, 1933, all but a small amount of gold coin, gold bullion, and gold certificates owned by them to the Federal Reserve in exchange for $20.67 (equivalent to $487 in 2023)[7] per troy ounce. Under the Trading with the Enemy Act of 1917, as amended by the recently passed Emergency Banking Act of March 9, 1933, a violation of the order was punishable by fine up to $10,000 (equivalent to $235,000 in 2023),[7] up to ten years in prison, or both.

It won't work this time. People who own bullion would rather dump the stuff in the Mariana Trench than give it to the government.


I just want to say this for all the Ukrainian, Israeli, and US government supporters. The above clearly demonstrates I was wrong, and Rick was right. I have no problem admitting I made a mistake. Feel free to do the same any time, no one will think less of you.

I respect people who hold to the truth, not people who try to win arguments.
202   fdhfoiehfeoi   2024 Apr 16, 12:29pm  

If you didn't know, gold and silver have been suppressed for over a hundred years. The connection of real physical to fake paper is gone.

https://www.rt.com/business/595122-west-losing-gold-east/
203   stereotomy   2024 Apr 16, 6:28pm  

Patrick says




Can someone explain this graph?

The key here is "real rates"; i.e., inflation-adjusted. If inflation is high, bond rates net inflation plummet, since bonds lag inflation. Gold prices in general follow asset prices, which are the first to rise before general consumer price inflation; i.e. asset price inflation is a leading indicator of general inflation (often by multiple years in advance).

Look at the late 1970's - gold shot up as well has housing prices. Then the Fed put interest rates close to 20% (which was much greater than the inflation rate, so "real" rates skyrocketed) and crashed the banking system, the housing market, gold, and the industrial economy.
204   fdhfoiehfeoi   2024 May 13, 7:57am  

"Austin cookie delivery firm Tiff's Treats is branching out from chocolate chips to gold bullion. Riding a wave of global interest in the precious metal, the new initiative is a way for the cookie delivery company to expand its appeal in this Amazon-fueled age of immediate gratification. Instead of paying about $21 for a box of a dozen chocolate chip cookies to be delivered to your friend, coworker or loved one, you can now pay roughly $2,500 for what the company deems its "bullion bundle" — a box of cookies plus a one-ounce, 24-karat bar of gold. The price of the package fluctuates with the daily gyrations of gold.

In South Korea: Aside from ramen and sausages, South Korea’s convenience stores have a new popular item on the menu — gold bars. The country’s largest convenience store chain, CU, has been collaborating with the Korea Minting and Security Printing Corporation (KOMSCO) to offer customers mini gold bars — and they’re selling like hot cakes.

A variety of finger-nail sized gold bars weighing between 0.1 gram and 1.87 gram have been up for sale at CU outlets since April. A 1.87-gram bar sells for 225,000 won ($165.76) and a 0.5-gram bar sells for 77,000 won.

Priced at 113,000 won each, 1 gram bars were sold out within two days, according to local news reports. The bars come with congratulatory messages, birthday wishes and even designs for personality types.

People in their 30s were most active in purchasing these gold bars, accounting for over 41% of the total sales since their launch, according to CU’s commerce phone app Pocket CU. Those in their 40s make up 35.2% of the sales, followed by people in their 50s at 15.6%. People in their 20s accounted for 6.8% of all sales.
"

- Franklin Sanders
205   stereotomy   2024 May 13, 8:27am  

The only problem with the "consumer gold" is when you try to sell it for anywhere near the price at which you bought it - try a 50% haircut at least. The big question for "consumer gold" (as opposed to "collectible" coins or good delivery bars) is provenance. For all anyone knows, it's gold-plated tungsten (which is virtually identical in density to gold). Plus, there is the BSA/AML aspect, "Why do you have so much gold, are you a terrorist or money launderer?" You have to clear 30% just to net out on the collectibles tax, to which gold is subject.

No, gold for most people is an insurance policy against the resolution of the Triffin Dilemma; namely, the dissolution of Bretton Woods / Petrodollar.
207   stereotomy   2024 Aug 17, 11:16am  

It's not quite the Rubicon, but gold crossed $2500 at closing on Friday:



From about $250 in 2000 to $2500 today. Not bad for a lump of metal. But muh Bitcoin . . . suck on a tulip bulb.
208   AD   2024 Aug 17, 8:45pm  

stereotomy says


It's not quite the Rubicon, but gold crossed $2500 at closing on Friday:



From about $250 in 2000 to $2500 today. Not bad for a lump of metal. But muh Bitcoin . . . suck on a tulip bulb.


Gold went up about 10% annually over last 24 years.

I would not put no more than $30,000 or 3% of assets (whichever is greater) in Bitcoin as a hedge in a fiat currency environment.

.
209   AD   2024 Aug 17, 9:15pm  

From what I'm reading of various Wall Street pundits recommendations to high wealth clients (+$3 million in stocks/ETFs/liquid assets), put 3% of assets in a Bitcoin ETF, 6% in gold and silver, and 6% in an oil and gas ETF.
210   stereotomy   2024 Nov 11, 7:22am  

Well, I have to agree with Stephanie Pomboy - I'll take the short-term hit on gold as long as we don't have globomomo WWIII:


211   Maga_Chaos_Monkey   2024 Nov 11, 9:00am  

Looks like a buying opportunity is approaching. Maybe. It's still way up.
212   stereotomy   2025 Jan 31, 4:54am  

At the end of the month, a rally to put the lazy metal above $2800:



Every dog gets its day.
213   MolotovCocktail   2025 Feb 1, 7:29am  

Each cellphone contains ~0.034 grams of gold.


214   AD   2025 Feb 23, 1:14pm  



215   stereotomy   2025 Mar 18, 2:08pm  

Back when I started this homage to Mega in July 2022, gold was around $1800.



All I can say is "You've come a long way baby."
216   KgK one   2025 Mar 18, 2:47pm  

If rates go down, gold should go up even more.

How much upside do you guys predict
217   Misc   2025 Mar 18, 3:55pm  

KgK one says

How much upside do you guys predict


Do you think there is real gold in Ft Knox ????
218   stereotomy   2025 Mar 18, 5:33pm  

KgK one says


If rates go down, gold should go up even more.

How much upside do you guys predict

Way back in the day on iTulip, EJ predicted the price of gold would ultimately have to rise to the point where it fully backed all USD currency in circulation. At that time (2014-ish) it was north of $10K. Since iTulip is no more, I hope @Patrick doesn't mind me giving this recap.

Such a radical revaluation of gold could only be accomplished by a government on the verge of compete debt default and potential hyperinflation. One scenario was that all the foreign dollars would flood back into the US - Europe and Asia selling off UST, the breaking of the petrodollar, and the collapse of US MIC arms sales to recycle dollars. This would trigger hyperinflation as the US could only print money to fund itself - nobody else would want dollars. When demand collapses and supply is too high - yeah, guess the outcome.

Given the massive increase in M2 and M3, it would probably take a price of $50K to restore solvency to the successor to the USD under the above scenario. I.e., not quite Zimbabwe levels, but a revaluation of 50K or 100K old USD to 1 new USD backed by gold. Real or otherwise tangible assets would ultimately retain some value, but in the short- to intermediate-term chaos there would be fire sales.

One of the reasons EJ gave for wrapping up iTulip was that the US economy was essentially fraudulent, and conventional valuation and macroeconomic interpretations did not apply to a completely contrived economy. IOW, we are living in a Soviet-styled fake economy, where everyone pretends it works until it doesn't. Who's left holding the bag then?
219   stereotomy   2025 Mar 18, 5:42pm  

@Patrick - I don't know if you had links to iTulip back in the day (2000's) or whether I found it from a link on HousingPanic (Kief was awesome). But I'm generous enough to thank you both for collectively saving my financial ass at least twice since the 'naughties.
220   Patrick   2025 Mar 18, 6:04pm  

Yes, I remember iTulip. There are still references to it on the site:

https://patrick.net/comments?start=-40&cs=iTulip

Though I probably also linked to it a lot in my housing links, which I'm not sure I have a record of anymore.
221   stereotomy   2025 Apr 10, 5:36pm  

Shit - Gold rimming $3200 now. It's gotta be the chicoms buying like mf's. Everything else is tanking.

Edit: $3206
222   EBGuy   2025 Apr 22, 12:42am  

Gold to silver ratio is over 105 right now -- which is insane. Bought some paper silver last week (SLV). The rubber band that hold these metals to one another is stretched tight. Something's gotta give...
223   AD   2025 Apr 22, 9:55am  



224   AD   2025 Apr 22, 9:58am  

MolotovCocktail says

Each cellphone contains ~0.034 grams of gold.





That is about $4 worth of gold in each cell phone

So how much labor is required to remove the gold ?

What is the net profit of this type of business ?

.
225   AD   2025 May 10, 9:54am  

The three major gold bull runs in modern history: 1980, 2011, and 2024–2025.
1. The 1980 Gold Spike
Peak: $850/oz in January 1980
(Adjusted for inflation in 2024 dollars: ~$3,200/oz)
Drivers:
• Runaway inflation (CPI > 13%)
• Oil shocks and stagflation
• Iranian Revolution and U.S. hostage crisis
• Weak U.S. dollar and declining trust in fiat currency
• Low interest in holding dollars due to negative real returns
Crash:
Once Fed Chair Paul Volcker hiked interest rates above 20% to tame inflation, gold collapsed. By 1982, gold fell by over 60%.

2. The 2011 Gold Peak
Peak: $1,920/oz in September 2011
(Inflation-adjusted to 2024: ~$2,600/oz)
Drivers:
• 2008 financial crisis aftershock
• Fear of bank failures and sovereign debt crises (e.g., Greece)
• Quantitative easing (QE) and rising U.S. debt
• Zero interest rates, making gold more attractive
• Concerns about U.S. credit downgrade (S&P downgraded U.S. debt in 2011)
Crash:
As global markets stabilized and interest rate hikes returned post-2013, gold lost nearly 40% over the next few years.

3. The 2024–2025 Gold Surge (Ongoing)
Peak (so far): Over $3,400/oz in 2025
(Uncharted territory—not just inflation-adjusted peak, but nominal all-time high)
Current Drivers:
• Record U.S. debt (~$35T+) and rising deficit
• Inflation fears remain even as CPI moderates
• Geopolitical instability: wars, China-U.S. tensions, uncertain global leadership
• Growing loss of faith in fiat currencies
• Central bank gold buying at record levels (especially China, Russia, BRICS)
• Interest in de-dollarization and hedging against U.S. fiscal risk
• Domestic political instability in the U.S. (fears of authoritarianism, currency controls, etc.)
Is it a bubble or just a shift?
Too soon to say—but unlike 1980 or 2011, this surge is not occurring in isolation. It’s part of a broader re-evaluation of global financial systems, fiat vulnerability, and U.S. dollar dominance.

Comparison Chart Summary
Year Peak Price (Nominal) Inflation-Adjusted Key Driver Outcome
1980 $850/oz ~$3,200/oz Inflation, oil crisis, geopolitical fear Crashed post-Volcker
2011 $1,920/oz ~$2,600/oz Financial crisis, QE, debt ceiling drama Fell post-recovery
2025 $3,400+/oz All-time high Sovereign debt, inflation hedging, de-dollarization Still climbing
226   stereotomy   2025 May 10, 8:40pm  

This may be either the end game of the Triffin Dilemma or a prelude to a new variation of fiat dollars akin to the invention of the Petrodollar in the 1970-80's.

The dollar is becoming almost an article of faith, just like Nuclear Fusion. So near, and yet so far . . .

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