patrick.net

https://rudy.substack.com/p/reverse-logans-run

This is sort of like a reverse Logan’s Run - you kill everyone under age 30.

I firmly believe the rising cost of living - which has been intentional Fed and governmental policy - is perhaps the leading cause of our demographic dystopia.

https://www.coffeeandcovid.com/p/burning-man-ethos-friday-august-29

You will be unsurprised to learn that plummeting birthrates have a political dimension. The Financial Times ran the story yesterday, headlined, “Why progressives should care about falling birth rates.” The reason they should care wasn’t because humanity itself is at risk, or from fears of catastrophic economic collapse. No. The subheadline drolly cautioned, “Falling fertility levels are making the world more conservative.”




... The trendline is stark. The more progressive, the worse the birthrate. It seems so clear, in fact, that births have nearly become a proxy for anti-human political ideology.

Patrick says

. The trendline is stark. The more progressive, the worse the birthrate. It seems so clear, in fact, that births have nearly become a proxy for anti-human political ideology.

This is why cities die unless they bring in more ppl from outside. Roman cities were like this, too. San Francisco has been famous for having more licensed pets than kids in school.

Another thing to consider:

Childless people are less involved with threats to children. They're fine with drag queen story time. They never learn that part of the soul in INNATE and really not learned.

EDIT: fixed "lean" to "learn"

https://boriquagato.substack.com/p/a-simple-primer-on-replacement




Wow, you can see the change in the 1990s where Democrats decided to throw the working class overboard, and the working class moved over to the Republican Party, bringing their higher birth rate with them.

MolotovCocktail says

Patrick says

. The trendline is stark. The more progressive, the worse the birthrate. It seems so clear, in fact, that births have nearly become a proxy for anti-human political ideology.

This is why cities die unless they bring in more ppl from outside. Roman cities were like this, too. San Francisco has been famous for having more licensed pets than kids in school.

Christ, I felt an earthquake. So I have been right. I've been saying this for months. Glad you've finally admitted it.

WookieMan says

I've been saying this for months.

Sure pal, sure.

MolotovCocktail says

WookieMan says

I've been saying this for months.

Sure pal, sure.

What are you even talking about? Read my comments. Other users can corroborate that I've said cities are dying. Move out of them. I'm not wrong.

WookieMan says

What are you even talking about? Read my comments. Other users can corroborate that I've said cities are dying. Move out of them. I'm not wrong.

Again: "Sure pal, sure."

MolotovCocktail says

WookieMan says

What are you even talking about? Read my comments. Other users can corroborate that I've said cities are dying. Move out of them. I'm not wrong.

Again: "Sure pal, sure."

You sound like a 14 year old. I have one. Do you have a kid?

WookieMan says

MolotovCocktail says

WookieMan says

I've been saying this for months.

Sure pal, sure.

What are you even talking about? Read my comments. Other users can corroborate that I've said cities are dying. Move out of them. I'm not wrong.

Is Chicago dying? I visited last month - didn't look dead at all.

PS. Except for the ground floor of Trump tower - that was completely dead and vacant (at least on the river side).

WookieMan says

You sound like a 14 year old. I have one. Do you have a kid?

No. I sound like someone who calls out your bulkshit. If a 14 year old does it too, no big surprise there.

Patrick says

As Professor Larry Sabato says, "Demographics is destiny".

.

Good countries will raise strong armies and use them to keep out the riff-raff.

New book out on it. Good reading so far.

MolotovCocktail says

That means a lot of abandoned commercial and residential real estate as in South Korea is close to becoming a ghost town. And nearly zero housing starts for at least the next 50 years in South Korea.

What does that mean for geopolitics like its neighbor North Korea ?

.

AD says

What does that mean for geopolitics like its neighbor North Korea ?

You would need the same chart for them as well. It's not much different though.

zzyzzx says

AD says

What does that mean for geopolitics like its neighbor North Korea ?

You would need the same chart for them as well. It's not much different though.

Norks are pumping out ~1.8 kids* per woman. South Korea is currently around 0.72. North Korea's TFR is also higher than those of Russia (1.4), Japan (1.2), and China (1.0).

That's a big difference. If the Norks hold this for another 25 years while the Sorks lose a much larger huge chunk of their population, they'll be able to roll right into the South.

A TFR of 1.0 means that in two generations, 75% population reduction. And in three, 93%. It's not linear. A generation being defined as 25 years.

^^^ this is what peeps don't get about demographic collapse. It isn't demographic decline on steroids. It is its own animal and usually is terminal.

South Korea is fucked. Ukraine has a worse TFR and that is because of the war.

https://www.macrotrends.net/global-metrics/countries/prk/north-korea/fertility-rate

* if their stats can be believed.

Back to Boomers.

One thing that can't really be shorted is Sportsball.

GenX slightly less into sports than Boomers but once the Boomers go, Millies are far less and far smaller households, and Zoomies hardly at all, so Pro and College Sports will be nowhere near as profitable.

In 10-15 years, the great Sportsball decline will probably be the death knell of the Legacy Network Channels.

Cable TV Programming will have to become streaming, another thing that will die within 20 years. Talking to some seniors while exchanging a router: "What do you mean you don't have a Cable Box?"

Just like Newspapers were blithely confident in the mid-late 90s about their future, as were many Department Stores, so is Sportsball today.

(And no, I'm not happy about the end of Sportsball. While I think it once took up too much air in the room, It's now one LESS thing that culturally unites Americans)

DemoralizerOfPanicans says

Cable TV Programming will have to become streaming, another thing that will die within 20 years.

Interesting. Plain old over-the-air TV broadcasts will outlive cable. It may even be that ATSC-3 standard will give a new lease on life to OTA broadcasts, as ATSC-3 is interactive and can charge per view if wanted.

Another Dismal Science thought:

Boomer Men will pass / become invalid faster than the Women. Many Grey Karens we see at protests are the older side of Boomer Women. So the red wave might subside somewhat from that end.

On the other hand, Men generally own more housing than Women, since men get borrrrrred and want a channnnnge less often and actually pay their mortgage before shopping for knick knacks and trips.

DemoralizerOfPanicans says

One thing that can't really be shorted is Sportsball.

GenX slightly less into sports than Boomers but once the Boomers go, Millies are far less and far smaller households, and Zoomies hardly at all, so Pro and College Sports will be nowhere near as profitable.

Already hit the floor with it. Gambling and fantasy changed the dynamic. Ratings won't be great, but you're going to have multiple gambling companies fighting for ad space. Viewership will be lower, but gambling, beer and car ads will stay strong. Stadium concession, tickets and fees with that. Baseball and hockey are in the worst position if you have a losing team.

Golf in my opinion is really the only genuine sport. 1-2 strokes on the leaderboard could be $500k. If you're in the top five on day four of a tournament it's highly unlikely you throw the round. Football is probably the worst with fixed games and betting. Team game, but a quarterback, cornerback, wide receiver, kicker and even coaches can throw games. Hell linemen with offsides penalties. I don't like sports betting but over/under score wise shouldn't be allowed. Point spread is bad too. It's so easy to throw a game. Just do win or loss and the game would have more integrity if there's gonna be gambling.

https://www.coffeeandcovid.com/p/the-new-american-century-wednesday

The President began by tackling mass immigration. It was one of the most direct and unstinting condemnations of open borders that you could possibly have prayed for. President Trump started by accusing the United Nations of basically attacking the US through a manufactured migration crisis. I am not exaggerating:

Not only is the UN not solving the problems it should. Too often, it's actually creating new problems for us to solve. The best example is the number one political issue of our time, the crisis of uncontrolled migration. It's uncontrolled. Your countries are being ruined. The United Nations is funding an assault on Western countries and their borders.
In 2024, the UN budgeted $372 million in cash assistance to support an estimated 624,000 migrants journeying into the United States. Think of that, the UN is supporting people that are illegally coming into the United States, and then we have to get them out. The UN also provided food, shelter, transportation, and debit cards to illegal aliens, can you believe that, on the way to infiltrate our southern border.
The UN is supposed to stop invasions. Not create them. And not finance them.

Then he drew a line in the sand: America won’t take it anymore, and he called on Europe to stand up to it, too:

America belongs to the American people. And I encourage all countries to take their own stand in defense of their citizens as well. You have to do that. You're destroying your countries. They're being destroyed. Europe is in serious trouble. They've been invaded by a force of illegal aliens like nobody's ever seen before. Illegal aliens are pouring into Europe, and nobody's doing anything to change it, to get them out. It's not sustainable.
And because they choose to be politically correct, they're doing just absolutely nothing about it.
Both the immigration and their suicidal energy ideas will be the death of Western Europe if something is not done immediately. This cannot be sustained. What makes the world so beautiful is that each country is unique, but to stay this way, every sovereign nation must have the right to control their own borders.
Your countries are going to hell.

He’s not wrong. Headline from the UK Telegraph, July:

The Telegraph
Elite police squad to monitor anti-migrant posts on social media
Concerns for free speech mount as Home Office creates team to flag signs of potential unrest

I'm the President of the United States, but I worry about Europe. I love Europe. I love the people of Europe, and I hate to see it being devastated by energy and immigration. This double-tailed monster destroys everything in its wake, and they cannot let that happen any longer. You're doing it because you want to be nice, you want to be politically correct and you're destroying your heritage.

My parents owned 5.5 acres. We had a 1 acre garden and the front yard was 1 acre. As a child I was in charge of garden weeding and cutting the front yard with a push mower. And they wondered why I couldn’t gain weight.

SharkyP says

My parents owned 5.5 acres. We had a 1 acre garden and the front yard was 1 acre. As a child I was in charge of garden weeding and cutting the front yard with a push mower. And they wondered why I couldn’t gain weight.

That was good for you. Your father sounds like a good one.

https://x.com/MoreBirths/status/1973172864233722194

MolotovCocktail says

https://x.com/MoreBirths/status/1973172864233722194

Feminism has done a job. There are college-educated Millie Chicks who "Know about biology" claiming they can easily have babies into their 40s. It's not a minority view, many believe that thanks to years of Feminist programming. In reality, having a first child in the 40s is extremely expensive, not guaranteed to work, if lucky you will have just one.

Another new cope is that "old sperm" is responsible. Eggs are the large gamete and don't get renewed; sperm is the small gamete and is renewed every few days. Birth defects are overwhelmingly due to aged eggs.

DemoralizerOfPanicans says

Birth defects are overwhelmingly due to aged eggs.

Correct, as the 40+ ladies use young donor sperm.

DemoralizerOfPanicans says

Another new cope is that "old sperm" is responsible. Eggs are the large gamete and don't get renewed; sperm is the small gamete and is renewed every few days. Birth defects are overwhelmingly due to aged eggs.

I used to sit by this guy at work. Super cool dude but he wore earbuds everywhere I saw him in the building. At his desk, in the lunchroom, in the bathroom. I gave him a hard time one day and told him his life has a sound track.

Anyhoo, it turns out, for Autism at least there is also a link with older men. First time older men got any blame for anything. If I recall he said something like it explained ~50% of cases. The structural variants in the paper are basically big chucks of dna in chromosomes missing. Or flipped around. Or moved somewhere else they don't belong.

I did an AI search:

William Brandler's prominent autism research focuses on the genetic architecture of autism spectrum disorder (ASD), specifically the contribution of rare inherited genetic mutations in noncoding regions of the genome. His key research findings and publications include:

Paternally inherited noncoding structural variants contribute to autism

Key finding: Brandler and his colleagues discovered that children with ASD are more likely to inherit specific structural variants in noncoding DNA from their fathers.

Significance: This finding added to the understanding of ASD's genetic roots beyond previously identified de novo (spontaneous) mutations in protein-coding regions. It suggests that rare, inherited, noncoding variants with intermediate effects play a role in increasing the risk for autism.

Publication: This research was published in Science in 2018 under the title, "Paternally inherited cis-regulatory structural variants are associated with autism".

Personalized therapeutic interventions

Key finding: In a 2015 review paper, Brandler and Jonathan Sebat discussed the shift toward personalized therapeutic interventions for ASD, given the diversity of genetic causes and underlying biochemical pathways.

Significance: Their paper emphasizes how the growing understanding of specific autism genes and causal variants supports the use of clinical genetic testing to inform personalized therapy for individuals with ASD.

Publication: This was published in the Annual Review of Medicine under the title, "From de novo mutations to personalized therapeutic interventions in autism".

High diversity of de novo mutations

Key finding: Brandler was a co-author on a 2016 paper that uncovered a high diversity and complex clustering of de novo (spontaneous) mutations in subjects with autism. The study's method for analyzing whole-genome sequencing identified structural mutations that were previously undetectable.

Significance: This research showed that a high rate of structural mutations contributes to the genetic risk for ASD.

Publication: "Frequency and Complexity of De Novo Structural Mutation in Autism" was published in the American Journal of Human Genetics.

Handedness and autism genetics

Key finding: Brandler has also published research on related neurodevelopmental topics, including a study examining the genetic relationship between handedness and autism.
Publication: "The genetic relationship between handedness and neurodevelopmental disorders" was published in 2013 in PubMed.

These papers highlight Brandler's contributions to understanding the complex genetic landscape of autism, particularly the role of noncoding DNA and inherited risk factors.

Just Autism, we never discussed the myriad of other genetic diseases people can get from rotten eggs.

Maga_Chaos_Monkey says

Just Autism, we never discussed the myriad of other genetic diseases people can get from rotten eggs.

If old eggs or old sperm was the problem, then we would have seen a history where the latest born kids in large families would be autistic.

HeadSet says

If old eggs or old sperm was the problem, then we would have seen a history where the latest born kids in large families would be autistic.

I don't know that this is not true. What we do know: Structural variants (SVs) in CREs were preferentially transmitted from fathers to children with ASD.

So we find the structural defect in the dad (sperm or sperm generating cells), then in the child and it maps to ASD.

A CRE (cis-regulatory element) is a region of non-coding DNA that regulates the transcription of nearby genes. CREs function by binding to transcription factors—proteins that control when, where, and how much a gene is expressed.

I looked if I could find any trend with the latest born kids:

- Some studies suggest firstborn children may have a slightly higher risk of autism compared to later-born siblings.

- Other research indicates that increasing birth order is associated with more severe autism phenotypes at diagnosis, meaning later-born children who are diagnosed may show greater symptom severity.

- A significant factor is interpregnancy interval (the time between births): both very short (<12 months) and very long (>6 years) intervals are linked to a higher risk of autism in the younger sibling, regardless of birth order.

- Having an older sibling with autism is a strong risk factor, increasing the younger sibling’s risk by up to 14 times, but this is not due to birth order itself.

So there are a lot of other reasons for this. Like Tylenol lol... I think vaccines too but that's just my opinion.

What is interesting about Will's research as it isn't a theory it's empirical data. For a long time that type of data couldn't be collected due to limits of tech.

You make a good point though. It could be that the 'old dad' effect is simply swamped by other factors. Doesn't mean it's not a factor though.

This guy writes a good article on the effects of demographic collapse OTHER than economic.

South Korea, which stands at 0.75 births per woman. In 1 generation, the working-age population of South Korea will contract from what it is now (51.5 million people) to 19 million people.

That is economically apocalyptic.

By 2035 (10 years from now), China is estimated to have a population of 400 million people above the age of 60.
.
.
.
So far, no nation has managed to turn around a negative fertility rate. Expect this to become a wedge issue between future political parties.
.
.
.
If current trends continue, then by the year 2200, the Amish will represent the majority of American citizens. In the year 1900, there were only a few thousand Amish people. As of 2018, there were approaching 350,000 Amish people. As of 2025, the current Amish population is estimated to be around 400,000

https://alwaysthehorizon.substack.com/p/demographic-decline-a-long-term-sociology

And this:

https://youtu.be/BZORu7EkpyM?si=_Srgra0nvyFtW7n_

Bush Jr cracked West Virginia as it went Republican in 2000 and stayed that way.

https://wvmetronews.com/2022/02/15/demography-is-destiny/

https://x.com/DrewPavlou/status/1980550166479605926