patrick.net

Patrick says

I wonder how many acts of intercourse he got per kid. Isn't there a per capita mileage adjustment or something?

INSIDIOUS PROJECT.


Take in infinity third worlds, but getting Western Countries to the replacement rate is an INSIDIOUS PROJECT

DemoralizerOfPanicans says

INSIDIOUS PROJECT.


Take in infinity third worlds, but getting Western Countries to the replacement rate is an INSIDIOUS PROJECT

Amish TFR is 7ish.

Patrick says

WookieMan says

Work on your own yard and not some illegal landscaper. Get some exercise so you're not fat.

Even better, transform that front lawn into a garden and get:

1. exercise
2. sun
3. food
4. savings on food and landscaping
5. connection to nature, knowing how things grow

Here in the silicon valley (a.k.a.: desert), the water for the food would cost more than importing food from elsewhere. If you could get your home declared as a "farm" with the water and tax benefits that entails, you could probably make it work. On the other hand, if you're not working hard at a high-tech job and earning a lot of money, your best move would be ot flee. If you are working at a high-tech job and earning a lot of money, then you'd be better off spending the extra time further pursuing that avenue.

MolotovCocktail says

Amish TFR is 7ish.

I've read that their fundamental limit is the amount of affordable but fertile farm land to expand into. Some of them have gone to Central and South America.

They also have an inbreeding problem since their initial numbers were fairly small.

SunnyvaleCA says

Here in the silicon valley (a.k.a.: desert), the water for the food would cost more than importing food from elsewhere.

True, but it's not about the money. It always costs more to raise your own food because mega-farms have such economies of scale.

It's about a measure of independence and the other benefits above, exercise, sun, etc. Even coding is like that: dependency vs duplication. Do you make your program dependent on some library which could disappear or change, or inline that library?

I've often wondered how much water falls on the roof of my house per year, how much I could collect via the gutters, and whether it would help significantly with watering.

I've read that in some places, it's actually illegal to collect the water that falls on your house, as if that could make a significant impact to water supplies. I watch San Francisquito Creek fill up and dump into the bay every winter. Seems more like such a law is designed to discourage independence.

https://x.com/Sargon_of_Akkad/status/1988690358734069823

Why isn't a TradCath like Nick with a huge following not getting married? He doesn't even have a girlfriend yet. He's almost 30.

SunnyvaleCA says

Here in the silicon valley (a.k.a.: desert), the water for the food would cost more than importing food from elsewhere.

The Santa Clara Valley used to be highly productive farmland.

https://www.openspaceauthority.org/agriculture

https://rudy.substack.com/p/the-increasing-economic-fragility

Karl Denninger:

Our solution to inflation in the 1970s - which was mostly Nixon and Ford, but Carter got the blame for it - the solution to that was to force women out of the house and into the workforce. And when that started…you had the whole generation that was called latchkey kids. You came home from school and basically you’re in the house until mom got home, right? Well, then we ratcheted that down to the point that now you need daycares for infants. Well, okay. That for a couple of kids is, what, 30 grand a year? $30,000 a year. Thousand dollar a month per kid, something like this, right? You can’t make that work unless you’ve got a $150,000 income between the two of you. Your wife goes to work, or you go to work, and when neither of you stays home, you both go to work. Basically, none of that second salary ends up going to the improvement in your standard of living because it all gets sucked up by the health care and the child care costs if you have children.

So, what happens? People decide not to have any kids. How do they get away from it? Well, that’s one way. That’s a veto you can’t overrule. And you see it in the data. It’s very clear. It takes 20 years to decide to have a child and grow that child to adulthood from the time you make the decision. You don’t get the kid in the workforce being productive for 20 years. Like it or not, that’s the way it works. If we continue to do this in another 10 or 20 years, you’re not going to have to worry about house prices. You’re not going to have to worry about asset prices, because you’re not going to have any people who are going to be able to wipe the old people’s ass. And there aren’t going to be any young people that want to buy your house when you don’t need the large house anymore.

Inflation, which caused this disaster, is 100% a creation of the Federal Reserve, stealing from everyone every day.

The Fed must be abolished, interest rates set by the market alone, and money must be defined as silver by weight.

AD says

Booger says

Nicaragua is a 53 and has not much excuse compared to Somalia which has been under constant civil war for at least 30 years

https://worldpopulationreview.com/country-rankings/average-iq-by-country

.

WorldPopulationReview uses the data of the International IQ test average IQ by country report. Somalia isn't present in the ranking due to insufficient data, and Nicaragua is lower in the ranking with an IQ of 88.7.

IQ scores below 70 are clinically considered an indicator of Intellectual Disability, so it's very unlikely for any country to have an average IQ below that threshold.

IQ of Somalia

The reported average IQ for Somalia varies significantly across different sources, with estimates ranging from 67 to 92.57. One source citing a 2006 study by Richard Lynn and Tatu Vanhanen claims an average IQ of 68 for Somalia, a figure that has been widely criticized and discredited due to flawed methodology and lack of representative data This estimate, which assumes Somalia's IQ is an average of Ethiopia and Kenya based on unrepresentative samples, has been described as a "fake number" and is not supported by rigorous research Other sources provide higher estimates: a 2025 analysis from IQ-Global Test reports an average IQ of 92.57 based on over 100 responses, ranking Somalia 148th globally Another source, IQ Haven, reports an average of 72.67 based on a high-range IQ test, though this data is from 2022 and may not reflect the broader population A 2017 study of Somali refugees in Kenya found an average IQ of 66.8, slightly lower than the 68 estimate, but this sample is not representative of the entire population Additional claims, such as an average IQ of 84 or 85, are based on broader regional assessments that consider factors like conflict and education access The inconsistency among these figures highlights the challenges in measuring national IQ averages, particularly in countries with limited infrastructure and data collection

https://search.brave.com/search?q=iq+of+somalia&source=desktop&conversation=7185a82b9d6b482f8eb771&summary=1

The very highest estimate is 92, based on 100 responses, rather than a general population sampling. Most research done points to well below 90.

Patrick says

That for a couple of kids is, what, 30 grand a year? $30,000 a year. Thousand dollar a month per kid, something like this, right? You can’t make that work unless you’ve got a $150,000 income between the two of you. Your wife goes to work, or you go to work, and when neither of you stays home, you both go to work. Basically, none of that second salary ends up going to the improvement in your standard of living because it all gets sucked up by the health care and the child care costs if you have children.

This used to work when neighborhoods were full of older Silent Gen/Greatest Gen empty nester housewives. Who were happy to watch younger kids for a few extra bucks a week and still young/healthy enough and in quantity to do so. It collapsed when they aged out and most women worked.

Consanguineous marriage, particularly between first or second cousins, is reported to be relatively common in certain regions of Somalia, though data varies significantly by clan and region. A 2019 genetic study of Ethiopian Somalis found that 48.7% of individuals were products of first or second cousin marriages, with an average inbreeding coefficient (FROH) of 0.018, which is higher than the typical coefficient for second cousin offspring.
Regional rates in similar cultures range from 44% to 63%.

In northern Somalia, traditional marriage practices often involve contracting unions between previously non-related families to establish new alliances.
In southern Somalia, the preferred spouse is often a patrilateral parallel cousin, either real or classificatory.
While cousin marriage is not universally common across all Somali clans, it is more prevalent in certain groups, particularly those with stronger ties to Arab heritage.
Some sources indicate that it is more common in smaller clans or among specific subgroups, such as the Reer Badiya, though it is often arranged or encouraged by older family members to strengthen familial bonds.

https://search.brave.com/search?q=consanguinity+by+country+somalia&source=web&conversation=e974c1a33ec94232cbc86b&summary=1

From perplexity.ai:

Meta‑style reviews and classic studies suggest an average drop of about 2.5–3.5 IQ points for children of first cousins (about 0.15–0.25 standard deviations).

Some individual studies in highly inbred populations report larger differences (up to 8–10 points), but those settings often combine multiple generations of consanguinity and other risk factors, so they are not typical for a one‑off first‑cousin marriage.

More important than the small shift in average IQ is the increased risk at the low end:

A classic analysis estimated the risk of “mental retardation” (IQ <70 in older terminology) rising from about 1.2% with unrelated parents to about 6.2% for children of first cousins.

This is thought to be due to recessive disease alleles becoming homozygous more often when parents share ancestry at many loci.

One point I learned in too many years of biology in college is that everyone has a few defective genes making nonfunctional proteins, but normally, you also have a different gene from the other parent at the same locus (as gene locations are called).

The other gene is unlikely to also happen to be defective, so most genetic diseases require inheriting the same bad gene from both parents. This is why inbreeding causes problems.

There is an opposite effect, called "outbreeding depression" in which it's beneficial to disable a gene in a certain environment. A simple example is genes for dark skin. In sunny climates, these genes help protect the skin, but in northern climates, they result in vitamin D deficiency and a resulting increase in disease. So in northern climates, people with broken genes for melanin did better in life when they got the same broken gene from both parents via inbreeding, eventually displacing people with dark skin completely in Europe. So a bit of inbreeding helped them, and outbreeding hurt them.

Also interesting: a vast number of your genes code for the brain and for joint structure, so typical signs of inbreeding are retardation and defective joints.