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Two Years is Generous


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2022 Jul 22, 4:18pm   11,556 views  88 comments

by fdhfoiehfeoi   ➕follow (0)   💰tip   ignore  

I think we have months left. Lots have been in our place before, and denied history like many will now. But the arrogance of thinking somehow we're special, that the rules don't apply to us will end bitterly. Prepare while you still can.

"Today the US government’s debt to GDP ratio is about 120% and its budget deficit is forecast to be about 7% of GDP this year A 300 basis point [interest rate] hike should increase the budget deficit to about 11% of GDP. Since 1991, all 18 other governments with deficits exceeding 11% of GDP and debt to GDP ratios exceeding 110% defaulted within two year. Thus, the Fed could soon be trapped: raising rates could trigger default and not raising them could leave inflation unchecked. Similar dilemmas in other countries have often caused extreme crises, e.g., Argentina Brazil, and Venezela; the US may soon join the club.

- Luke Gromen in FFTT Tree Rings, 15 July 2022, quoting Hirschman Capital Year-End 2021 Letter.

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64   RWSGFY   2022 Sep 6, 10:26am  

One month of "few months left" has passed.
65   Bd6r   2022 Sep 6, 10:35am  

RWSGFY says

One month of "few months left" has passed.

Something has to give. Current Time (TM) is eerily similar to what was going on right before USSR collapsed. Crazies coming out of woodwork, wild swings in politics, subdued-for-now inflation accelerating, etc.
66   latitude38   2022 Sep 6, 11:19am  

Last time , I checked the world’s 3rd largest economy Japan is still afloat with a Debt to GDP ratio of over 250%.

I believe the discussion about “ you can’t slaughter your own animals “ is in regards to a highly publicized Amish farmer who refused to follow USDA guidelines/regulations for selling organic meat across state lines . Anytime meat is sold ,especially across state lines you have violated a number of laws. Any homegrown livestock / or game meat slaughtered for personal use doesn’t violate any state / Fed law .That’s why when you go on the east side and see families raising chickens /goats/pigs a USDA agent isn’t knocking on their door . The limits on how much fish/crab were allowed to catch is for a number of reasons ,one of whichh is we’re not selling it for public consumption
67   latitude38   2022 Sep 6, 11:53am  

Regarding social security and inflation
COLA is determined by A COLA effective for December of the current year is equal to the percentage increase (if any) in the CPI-W from the average for the third quarter of the current year to the average for the third quarter of the last year in which a COLA became effective.
While I would agree those on SS should get more and there’s is other avenues they can seek out .The reason SS benefits are meaner is to keep other taxpayers from retiring early
Regarding rasing taxes on the” rich” is much like why they hired 80IRS agents to audit us not them -it’s not going to happen .But there’s really no need to raise taxes period .Collect taxes on off -shore tax havens that are nothing but money laundering for the super rich .Money made in US or even overseas should be taxed . Estimated amount is 5 trillion dollars .Tax that money at their tax rate adding penalties and listen to them scream like hogs before the slaughter.
68   fdhfoiehfeoi   2022 Sep 6, 4:08pm  

latitude38 says

Anytime meat is sold ,especially across state lines you have violated a number of laws.


Let's not confuse law with morality comrade.
69   Bd6r   2022 Sep 6, 4:15pm  

NuttBoxer says


Let's not confuse law with morality comrade.

I'd even say lets not confuse law with common sense. I buy meat from farm neighbors who butcher animals and sell them to people they know, and this meat tastes much better that one in supermarkets, is probably more healthy, definitely comes from animals who lived a much more happy life than ones who are kept in industrial Mooschwitzes yet both me and my neighbor are breaking idiotic laws.
70   Patrick   2022 Sep 6, 4:22pm  

Bd6r says


Current Time (TM) is eerily similar to what was going on right before USSR collapsed.


Yes, it very much reminds me of that time as well, from what I could see of it over here. I think I remember a tank firing into the Kremlin but I don't think it killed anyone.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-14589691

Hopefully we can also have a bloodless coup and then restore the Constitution, human rights, and legitimate elections.
71   Onvacation   2022 Sep 6, 4:58pm  

href="/post/1346762?start=48#comment-1875308">Patrick says

Hopefully we can also have a bloodless coup and then restore the Constitution, human rights, and legitimate elections.

We just had a bloodless coup. Everybody knows it.

We are all waiting anxiously, or obliviously, for the next thing to happen; Black Swan, October surprise, false flag, who knows?

If the Dems lose November it means the beginning of "Investigations". The dramatic questionings will be so entertaining. The leaked info will be questionable, but plausible. The political theatre will be wonderful!
72   Bd6r   2022 Sep 6, 5:36pm  

Onvacation says

If the Dems lose November it means the beginning of "Investigations". The dramatic questionings will be so entertaining. The leaked info will be questionable, but plausible. The political theatre will be wonderful!

The lack of any real consequences for stealing the election will be amazing!
73   latitude38   2022 Sep 6, 9:37pm  

Nuttboxer says that I’m confusing rule of law with morality . To some extent that’s why the USDA has had an ongoing battle with Amos Miller/ Miller Meats .This is nothing new in fact it goes back to ‘19 . Miller has refused to comply with the regulations and has numberous violations . I gather you seen to think it goes against free market principles ,it’s actually there to preserve free market. Of course as with all gvt agencies they tend to overeach .Tyler Durban points out misleading labels or outright lying to the consumer cage free , open range ,grass fed can lead to unfair competition .Where the meat came from ,their organic practice ,illegal dumping ,unsafe procedures , packaging so on .We imported nearly 2 Billion lbs of beef si far this year . The Reichleiter hasn’t t issued a blood and soil directive from the centralized economic policy board
74   mell   2022 Sep 7, 6:05am  

Bd6r says

RWSGFY says


One month of "few months left" has passed.

Something has to give. Current Time (TM) is eerily similar to what was going on right before USSR collapsed. Crazies coming out of woodwork, wild swings in politics, subdued-for-now inflation accelerating, etc.

I don't think it has to be big, it's a declining standard of living like the boiling frog. People may take it for a while, esp. since the deadbeats can get almost anything for free these days, and the standard of living hasn't declined enough since the Trump golden years. But agreed on rising tensions in general, Europe and US.
75   Bd6r   2022 Sep 7, 8:37am  

mell says

I don't think it has to be big, it's a declining standard of living like the boiling frog. People may take it for a while, esp. since the deadbeats can get almost anything for free these days, and the standard of living hasn't declined enough since the Trump golden years.

May be Venezuela is a better analogy. A few decades ago they were well-off, but now not so much. Decline of standards was slow initially but then really quick.
76   fdhfoiehfeoi   2022 Sep 7, 1:01pm  

latitude38 says

it’s actually there to preserve free market. Of course as with all gvt agencies they tend to overeach .Tyler Durban points out misleading labels or outright lying to the consumer cage free , open range ,grass fed can lead to unfair competition .Where the meat came from ,their organic practice ,illegal dumping ,unsafe procedures , packaging so on .


Regulation of any kind is literally the antithesis of free market. But that wasn't my point at all. Only commies, fascists, and religious fanatics insist on law above right and wrong.

Funny you bring up mis-labeling. If you read into the case more you'd find the FDA sprays all meat with non-organic chemicals, and it's never labeled anywhere. I'm actually looking for a new source of local meat because my current CSA will only guarantee no FDA if I buy whole animal.
77   fdhfoiehfeoi   2022 Sep 7, 1:05pm  

mell says

I don't think it has to be big, it's a declining standard of living like the boiling frog. People may take it for a while, esp. since the deadbeats can get almost anything for free these days, and the standard of living hasn't declined enough since the Trump golden years. But agreed on rising tensions in general, Europe and US.


It has been slow. Decline started in 1913, over a hundred years ago. Why has it dragged out longer? We print the reserve currency. That's the only reason. '08 started back in the early 2000's. Regardless of how slow it starts, the end is always quick and for many, unexpected. Given the amount of leverage we've created with this one, implosion will be spectacular.
78   fdhfoiehfeoi   2023 Jul 6, 10:50am  

Obviously I missed my timeline here, but I still may be closest of any patnetter.

https://zerohedge.com/markets/something-just-snapped-consumers-panic-search-pawn-shop-near-me
79   GNL   2023 Jul 6, 12:04pm  

Over 400,000 jobs created last month.
80   fdhfoiehfeoi   2023 Jul 6, 1:24pm  

Along with record number of people quitting and credit card debt going sky high. I trust government job numbers as much as I trust Hunter Biden to watch my coke.
81   RC2006   2023 Jul 6, 1:27pm  

If it fails it fails. Is even half the population even productive at this point? CA takers passed makers a few years ago.
82   WookieMan   2023 Jul 6, 1:38pm  

NuttBoxer says

Along with record number of people quitting and credit card debt going sky high. I trust government job numbers as much as I trust Hunter Biden to watch my coke.

I agree with the Hunter comment. But you're in CA or basically East CA in Yuma. The rest of the country is fine. You're witnessing the collapse of CA, not the United States. CA would be the 5th largest country on the planet as a stand alone. It's going to seem dire when you're living it. I did in IL for about 10-15 years.

At some point even the richest of the rich aren't going to want to be there. Once the real exodus is done CA is toast. The tax revenue will plummet. We're talking 30-50% of state income taxes and other fees. I know you guys love it out there, but it's only going to get worse. Not a little. A lot.
83   Eric Holder   2023 Jul 6, 3:06pm  

Shaman says


Well Russia cut off the gas totally now so Europe is fucked unless Biden and the WEF/EU agree to drop sanctions.


Aaaaand here we are next summer and gas pricise in Europe are lower than prior to the Soviet aggression. No sanctions dropped in meantime.

Uncle Joe (Stalin) was right: nobody is irreplaceable. Especially if your main product is something as crude and unsofisticated as, well, crude oil and natural gas.
84   richwicks   2023 Jul 6, 3:13pm  

Eric Holder says

Aaaaand here we are next summer and gas pricise in Europe are lower than prior to the Soviet aggression. No sanctions dropped in meantime.


How are they cheaper? Though some manipulation in the commodities markets?

It's the WEST that breaks supply and demand rules. It's the WEST that now ignores capitalism and Austrian economics. Supply / Cost / Demand are artificially disconnected. This will just lead to shortages in time.
85   Eric Holder   2023 Jul 6, 3:14pm  

richwicks says


How are they cheaper?


Literally. More supply, more export routes. Cheaper. Fact. No amount of reeeee can change that.

I know, it's unfair to the accolytes of Soviet Inevitabilty*, but real life has this habit of gut-checking ideas.

*)The idea of Soviet Inevitability is that since Soviets always win the best everybody else can do is surrender quickly and on somewhat less horrible terms.
86   stereotomy   2023 Jul 6, 3:24pm  

NuttBoxer says

Funny you bring up mis-labeling. If you read into the case more you'd find the FDA sprays all meat with non-organic chemicals, and it's never labeled anywhere. I'm actually looking for a new source of local meat because my current CSA will only guarantee no FDA if I buy whole animal.

Same boat here. Every place I move to, I try to find local farmers that optimally sell by the cut or, worst case, by the quarter. I've seen what good meat does for a body. My son is growing like a weed - he eats 1-2 lbs of meat a day.
87   Onvacation   2023 Jul 6, 3:25pm  

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88   fdhfoiehfeoi   2023 Jul 7, 9:03am  

stereotomy says

Same boat here. Every place I move to, I try to find local farmers that optimally sell by the cut or, worst case, by the quarter. I've seen what good meat does for a body. My son is growing like a weed - he eats 1-2 lbs of meat a day.


My wife was moving away from a lot of animal products, but noticed some health issues. Now that she's eating more meat, and drinking bone broth daily, she has more energy, sleeps better, and hair and nails have improved.

Still using my same CSA farmer. His FDA processing facility only sprays citric acid. And most important test, we always feel great eating meat from his farm.

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