patrick.net

Patrick says

RWSGFY says

What exactly is "personal" or worthy of moderation

Saying "this twit".

That's personal, being about him and not being about the topic.

Huh? "Remember this twit" is a common Internet phrase meaning "remember this post"
and originally referred to a post on Twitter, called "twits".

RWSGFY says

RWSGFY says

awaiting moderation

What exactly is "personal" or worthy of moderation in the promise to remember the prediction and revisit it later at 6 and 12 month mark? How insecure and butthurt the cunt who marked it personal must be?

Seemed like an intentional mis-spelling. If that wasn't the case, just needs to be edited. No problem at all with you calling out my prediction, or any of the previous one's I've made.

Debt to GDP peaked at 136 back in 2020 (source https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GFDEGDQ188S )

So that is good news if it is 120 as it has trended down and may continue to trend down as the government inflates its way out of a debt crisis.

But I agree, as the trade-off is that inflation is essentially a tax on the working and middle class to sustain the government's solvency.

They could raise taxes that expire in 3 years or make modest cuts to spending to reduce the debt.

It will be interesting to see what tax revenues are for 2022.

ad says

Debt to GDP peaked at 136 back in 2020 (source https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GFDEGDQ188S )

So that is good news if it is 120 as it has trended down and may continue to trend down as the government inflates its way out of a debt crisis.

But I agree, as the trade-off is that inflation is essentially a tax on the working and middle class to sustain the government's solvency.

They could raise taxes that expire in 3 years or make modest cuts to spending to reduce the debt.

It will be interesting to see what tax revenues are for 2022.

So, the way you bring the debt to GDP ratio down is to print more $$? Jeez, printing more $$ has 0 downsides?

Patrick says

RWSGFY says

What exactly is "personal" or worthy of moderation

Saying "this twit".

That's personal, being about him and not being about the topic.

Ok but in another thread a post that was later removed for being personal was subsequently quoted by another User and when it was marked personal you allowed the quoted remark which is still personal, to remain.

NuttBoxer says

lamb is by far the best ground meat you can have, super flavorful. Goat milk can take a little time to get used to. But my daughters all drink it, and we actually prefer it to cow milk.

I like lamb a lot if it's quality and cooked properly. I make some really good greek/gyro style meatballs with ground lamb and pork.

On the whole debt thing. We don't have to repay it. As mell said there will be a reset of the financial system to an extent. I don't think it will be a crisis or collapse, outside of some in the banking industry jumping out of buildings. You, we, us and the government don't have to repay it. No one can force us. The rest of the world is in worse shape by a long shot. Especially right now with the Ukraine shit and China virus still fucking up the supply chain.

I hate the inflation, we do need to tap the brakes on it if we can, but most people I know are doing substantially well. Most white collar workers and the blue collars here in IL always make bank if working for the government.

I liked the economy before Covid, but I'm just still not seeing a massive collapse of any kind. Recession for sure. Probably not as bad as the housing crash. We're going to look back 20 years from now and ultimately realize how bad that was. The saving grace is that it was a collapse in physical assets people need. Prices on a home can drop, but people still need a roof over their head (unless in CA, lol). And that's not a knock, just saying y'all have quite the homeless situation out there.

The supply chain issues are of biggest concern if you don't have the resources. I'm not a prepper, but I easily have 2 months of food in my house. When shit hits the fan, generally Americans are all hands on deck. Or so I hope. We'll see. This is what happens when POTUS doesn't lead. Confidence erodes. I think November could turn it around though. Our political cycle got fucked in 2020. I think it will get better, as what is happing now ain't working.

WineHorror1 says

So, the way you bring the debt to GDP ratio down is to print more $$? Jeez, printing more $$ has 0 downsides?

The tradeoff or downside is that the working stiffs or working class as well as those on limited income such as social security end up suffering the most.

There may be a 5% increase in social security payment but a vast majority of their expenses increased by 8%.

So they lose 3% of buying power.

This forces them to make cuts to spending as Walmart has reported today in its earning guidance and forecast in regards to inflationary conditions.

Seems like Wall Street and Main Street are expecting the Fed to raise the Fed Funds rate by 0.75% this week, that is from 1.75% to 2.5%.

It was 0.25% from around 2009 to 2016. It peaked at around 2.75% in 2018.

At least gas prices here in Florida panhandle went down from the recent peak of $4.75 to currently about $3.80.

.

I suspect Fed may try to raise the Fed Funds rate to at least 4.5% in order to give enough margin to lower rates without going back to a Zero Interest Rate Policy (ZIRP) like from 2009 to 2016.

Social Security and VA disability payments went up 5.9% at the end of 2021 yet inflation was 7.1% in 2021.

The federal government and Fed look at this as one way to distribute the burden. I would say slightly raise taxes on higher income earners for no more than 2 years and hold spending constant for two years. This is one way to reduce the debt to GDP ratio very quickly.

ad says

hold spending constant for two years

what is the chance of this happening???

Bd6r says

ad says

hold spending constant for two years

what is the chance of this happening???

0, of course.

Man, the government doesn't give a fuck about the population. They actively attack it now. They don't need tax revenue, they just get as much fucking money as they want from the Federal Reserve.

ad says

The tradeoff or downside is that the working stiffs or working class as well as those on limited income such as social security end up suffering the most.

To start off, and at small scale. But over a long enough period of time, inflation takes everything, from all of us. Through booms we are encouraged to overspend, and through busts, our land and possessions are repo'd or sold for pennies on the dollar. All the while we pour more of our time into their system, and have less to show for it. Eventually we are reduced to subsistence living, and indentured servitude.

The only benefit of inflation, is to those running the presses.

You'll probably know this, but I'm not the only one who thinks the centralized economy is about to go down. Also has some good insights into the physical vs paper disconnect in gold and silver:

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/only-start-bill-holter-warns-whole-world-banana-republic

Have seen multiple reports of Europe bailing out their energy companies. We all remember how well bail-outs work... Seems like their getting quite desperate to stay afloat. Doesn't look like the Asian markets will get first dibs on starting the crash this time around.

Well Russia cut off the gas totally now so Europe is fucked unless Biden and the WEF/EU agree to drop sanctions.

ad says

Social Security and VA disability payments went up 5.9% at the end of 2021 yet inflation was 7.1% in 2021.

Fixed:
Social Security and VA disability payments went up 5.9% at the end of 2021 yet inflation was 15% in 2021.

The government intentionally under reports inflation.

Shaman says

Well Russia cut off the gas totally now so Europe is fucked unless Biden and the WEF/EU agree to drop sanctions.

Sanctions just accelerate the inevitable. They were fucked when they listened to Greta and assortment of other idiots and when they let in half of the Maghreb.

The Euros love to show Energy Production,not Consumption. Makes things look better than they are.

One month of "few months left" has passed.

RWSGFY says

One month of "few months left" has passed.

Something has to give. Current Time (TM) is eerily similar to what was going on right before USSR collapsed. Crazies coming out of woodwork, wild swings in politics, subdued-for-now inflation accelerating, etc.

Last time , I checked the world’s 3rd largest economy Japan is still afloat with a Debt to GDP ratio of over 250%.

I believe the discussion about “ you can’t slaughter your own animals “ is in regards to a highly publicized Amish farmer who refused to follow USDA guidelines/regulations for selling organic meat across state lines . Anytime meat is sold ,especially across state lines you have violated a number of laws. Any homegrown livestock / or game meat slaughtered for personal use doesn’t violate any state / Fed law .That’s why when you go on the east side and see families raising chickens /goats/pigs a USDA agent isn’t knocking on their door . The limits on how much fish/crab were allowed to catch is for a number of reasons ,one of whichh is we’re not selling it for public consumption

Regarding social security and inflation
COLA is determined by A COLA effective for December of the current year is equal to the percentage increase (if any) in the CPI-W from the average for the third quarter of the current year to the average for the third quarter of the last year in which a COLA became effective.
While I would agree those on SS should get more and there’s is other avenues they can seek out .The reason SS benefits are meaner is to keep other taxpayers from retiring early
Regarding rasing taxes on the” rich” is much like why they hired 80IRS agents to audit us not them -it’s not going to happen .But there’s really no need to raise taxes period .Collect taxes on off -shore tax havens that are nothing but money laundering for the super rich .Money made in US or even overseas should be taxed . Estimated amount is 5 trillion dollars .Tax that money at their tax rate adding penalties and listen to them scream like hogs before the slaughter.

latitude38 says

Anytime meat is sold ,especially across state lines you have violated a number of laws.

Let's not confuse law with morality comrade.

NuttBoxer says

Let's not confuse law with morality comrade.

I'd even say lets not confuse law with common sense. I buy meat from farm neighbors who butcher animals and sell them to people they know, and this meat tastes much better that one in supermarkets, is probably more healthy, definitely comes from animals who lived a much more happy life than ones who are kept in industrial Mooschwitzes yet both me and my neighbor are breaking idiotic laws.

Bd6r says

Current Time (TM) is eerily similar to what was going on right before USSR collapsed.

Yes, it very much reminds me of that time as well, from what I could see of it over here. I think I remember a tank firing into the Kremlin but I don't think it killed anyone.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-14589691

Hopefully we can also have a bloodless coup and then restore the Constitution, human rights, and legitimate elections.

href="/post/1346762?start=48#comment-1875308">Patrick says

Hopefully we can also have a bloodless coup and then restore the Constitution, human rights, and legitimate elections.

We just had a bloodless coup. Everybody knows it.

We are all waiting anxiously, or obliviously, for the next thing to happen; Black Swan, October surprise, false flag, who knows?

If the Dems lose November it means the beginning of "Investigations". The dramatic questionings will be so entertaining. The leaked info will be questionable, but plausible. The political theatre will be wonderful!

Onvacation says

If the Dems lose November it means the beginning of "Investigations". The dramatic questionings will be so entertaining. The leaked info will be questionable, but plausible. The political theatre will be wonderful!

The lack of any real consequences for stealing the election will be amazing!

Nuttboxer says that I’m confusing rule of law with morality . To some extent that’s why the USDA has had an ongoing battle with Amos Miller/ Miller Meats .This is nothing new in fact it goes back to ‘19 . Miller has refused to comply with the regulations and has numberous violations . I gather you seen to think it goes against free market principles ,it’s actually there to preserve free market. Of course as with all gvt agencies they tend to overeach .Tyler Durban points out misleading labels or outright lying to the consumer cage free , open range ,grass fed can lead to unfair competition .Where the meat came from ,their organic practice ,illegal dumping ,unsafe procedures , packaging so on .We imported nearly 2 Billion lbs of beef si far this year . The Reichleiter hasn’t t issued a blood and soil directive from the centralized economic policy board

Bd6r says

RWSGFY says

One month of "few months left" has passed.

Something has to give. Current Time (TM) is eerily similar to what was going on right before USSR collapsed. Crazies coming out of woodwork, wild swings in politics, subdued-for-now inflation accelerating, etc.

I don't think it has to be big, it's a declining standard of living like the boiling frog. People may take it for a while, esp. since the deadbeats can get almost anything for free these days, and the standard of living hasn't declined enough since the Trump golden years. But agreed on rising tensions in general, Europe and US.

mell says

I don't think it has to be big, it's a declining standard of living like the boiling frog. People may take it for a while, esp. since the deadbeats can get almost anything for free these days, and the standard of living hasn't declined enough since the Trump golden years.

May be Venezuela is a better analogy. A few decades ago they were well-off, but now not so much. Decline of standards was slow initially but then really quick.

latitude38 says

it’s actually there to preserve free market. Of course as with all gvt agencies they tend to overeach .Tyler Durban points out misleading labels or outright lying to the consumer cage free , open range ,grass fed can lead to unfair competition .Where the meat came from ,their organic practice ,illegal dumping ,unsafe procedures , packaging so on .

Regulation of any kind is literally the antithesis of free market. But that wasn't my point at all. Only commies, fascists, and religious fanatics insist on law above right and wrong.

Funny you bring up mis-labeling. If you read into the case more you'd find the FDA sprays all meat with non-organic chemicals, and it's never labeled anywhere. I'm actually looking for a new source of local meat because my current CSA will only guarantee no FDA if I buy whole animal.

mell says

I don't think it has to be big, it's a declining standard of living like the boiling frog. People may take it for a while, esp. since the deadbeats can get almost anything for free these days, and the standard of living hasn't declined enough since the Trump golden years. But agreed on rising tensions in general, Europe and US.

It has been slow. Decline started in 1913, over a hundred years ago. Why has it dragged out longer? We print the reserve currency. That's the only reason. '08 started back in the early 2000's. Regardless of how slow it starts, the end is always quick and for many, unexpected. Given the amount of leverage we've created with this one, implosion will be spectacular.

Obviously I missed my timeline here, but I still may be closest of any patnetter.

https://zerohedge.com/markets/something-just-snapped-consumers-panic-search-pawn-shop-near-me

Over 400,000 jobs created last month.

Along with record number of people quitting and credit card debt going sky high. I trust government job numbers as much as I trust Hunter Biden to watch my coke.

If it fails it fails. Is even half the population even productive at this point? CA takers passed makers a few years ago.

NuttBoxer says

Along with record number of people quitting and credit card debt going sky high. I trust government job numbers as much as I trust Hunter Biden to watch my coke.

I agree with the Hunter comment. But you're in CA or basically East CA in Yuma. The rest of the country is fine. You're witnessing the collapse of CA, not the United States. CA would be the 5th largest country on the planet as a stand alone. It's going to seem dire when you're living it. I did in IL for about 10-15 years.

At some point even the richest of the rich aren't going to want to be there. Once the real exodus is done CA is toast. The tax revenue will plummet. We're talking 30-50% of state income taxes and other fees. I know you guys love it out there, but it's only going to get worse. Not a little. A lot.

Shaman says

Well Russia cut off the gas totally now so Europe is fucked unless Biden and the WEF/EU agree to drop sanctions.

Aaaaand here we are next summer and gas pricise in Europe are lower than prior to the Soviet aggression. No sanctions dropped in meantime.

Uncle Joe (Stalin) was right: nobody is irreplaceable. Especially if your main product is something as crude and unsofisticated as, well, crude oil and natural gas.

Eric Holder says

Aaaaand here we are next summer and gas pricise in Europe are lower than prior to the Soviet aggression. No sanctions dropped in meantime.

How are they cheaper? Though some manipulation in the commodities markets?

It's the WEST that breaks supply and demand rules. It's the WEST that now ignores capitalism and Austrian economics. Supply / Cost / Demand are artificially disconnected. This will just lead to shortages in time.

richwicks says

How are they cheaper?

Literally. More supply, more export routes. Cheaper. Fact. No amount of reeeee can change that.

I know, it's unfair to the accolytes of Soviet Inevitabilty*, but real life has this habit of gut-checking ideas.

*)The idea of Soviet Inevitability is that since Soviets always win the best everybody else can do is surrender quickly and on somewhat less horrible terms.