patrick.net

Those photos don't prove shit. Every new subdivision looks like that. They don't magically appear out of nowhere overnight do they?

That area is where I'll be renting in about 2 months.

What area is that?

Okay, I'm assuming @Maga lives in San Antonio still due to his prior posts. That looks like NW SA... I just texted one of my best friends from high school about this thread he says:

"Sales are softening
I'm still trying to build 151 homes
Career record
But the bubble will pop

It seems to be a cycle"

I saw him 2 months ago and he mentioned this. I asked how the fuck someone could build that many homes and he says he just drives around waving his arms in the air asking his people to, "please build homes!"

He's been working for the largest builder in that area for the past 25 years. Probably largest nation wide.

He didn't confirm hiring mexicans to guard stuff but @maga probably spoke to some other builder.

Oh, I own a few in the area as well and I'm still getting at least 5 text messages a week asking if I'd sell to them. I just block the number and delete. I was probably getting 10/day a year to several months ago. Before that I never got any or they were super rare. Maybe a mailer.

WineHorror1 says

Those photos don't prove shit. Every new subdivision looks like that. They don't magically appear out of nowhere overnight do they?

Exactly. Surveillance at construction area is very normal. In fact the builder has a good reputation nationally to build homes with good value for the selling prices. If I remember correctly one of my friends in near east Dallas, TX bought one from them who is very happy. There could be a minor price correction. I do not know what will happen in the immediate future but for sure the free thin air printed $Ts given to top 1% will popup all over and flood sooner than later that the (massive) inflation will continue in one-way the other. I will never believe gov inflation numbers that NEVER applies to where I am at bay area which is a total junk.
As per @just_passing_through it could be
https://www.meritagehomes.com/state/tx/san-antonio
https://www.meritagehomes.com/state/tx/san-antonio/scenic-crest---classic-series
the starter home classic series $430,000/1831 sft = $235/sft should not be a bad deal for a brand new home with 10year warranty.
The sft rate will go down significantly I guess below $200 if you consider larger homes. Looks like the large ones beyond 2,303sft are either already gone or not released yet.

Patrick says

What area is that?

San Antonio Texas.

just_passing_through says

That area is where I'll be renting in about 2 months.

Hope you work in the area. Traffic is really bad at times.

If they had built homes for middle class people, they could still sell all that they could make.

McMansions will be eating cash poor people alive with electrical heating/cooling costs with natural gas prices. US natural gas prices are at $9mm BTU.

MAGA says

Hope you work in the area. Traffic is really bad at times.

I'll spend money in the area but work remotely in SF. No joke about the traffic. Completely different city vs. when I lived there 25 years ago.

Where I live they should call new developments "Stonehenge" because the houses are so close together that only during the solstice does light penetrate the gaps.

1337irr says

McMansions will be eating cash poor people alive with electrical heating/cooling costs with natural gas prices. US natural gas prices are at $9mm BTU.

My wife's aunt in Colorado said the builders there are no longer allowed to install gas fireplaces. She said it was a "green" initiative.

HeadSet says

My wife's aunt in Colorado said the builders there are no longer allowed to install gas fireplaces. She said it was a "green" initiative.

All new construction in California does away with natural gas. It's insane.

I think propane tanks are going to become a thing here in time.

What? They just did away with wood fireplaces, and now gas fireplaces too?

Patrick says

What? They just did away with wood fireplaces, and now gas fireplaces too?

In certain jurisdictions, the super intelligent planners have forbade new installations of natural gas pipelines to new residential. This is not the case for the entire state.

At least until 2030 when it will be forbade to install a new natural gas furnace or water heater in a residence. These asshats are nuts.

richwicks says

I think propane tanks are going to become a thing here in time.

I used prices from PG&E base rates. The propane cost is dirt cheap lowest, though $3.49 seems average at most other places. Let me know if prices seem way off....
https://www.amsenergy.com/fuel-cost-calculator/



As you can see, a lot depends of heat pump efficiency. The average heat pump has a COP value of about 3.7 at 47°F. That means it has 370% efficiency. For comparison, electric space heaters have a COP value of 1.0 and have 100% efficiency. At temperatures below 0°F, the COP value of heat pumps can be close to 1 or even below 1.
Per https://learnmetrics.com/at-what-temperature-does-a-heat-pump-stop-working/

Doing away with natty gas appliances in new homes for “green” reasons is double retarded. Natural gas is one of the absolute cleanest energy sources. And its replacement electric heat is 1)much less efficient, 2)the power in winter is going to have to come from oil, natural gas, coal, or nuclear, 3) you lose 25% of the power in transmission line resistance.

Basically you’re taking a known quantity and making less efficient, less earth friendly, and more expensive. Only a democrat could ruin something so thoroughly and still believe they’re making it better.

Shaman says

3) you lose 25% of the power in transmission line resistance.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) estimates that annual electricity transmission and distribution (T&D) losses averaged about 5% of the electricity transmitted and distributed in the United States in 2017 through 2021.

$0.25/kWh is not happening in CA PG&E territory, try a minimum of $0.33/kWh and soon to go up a shit ton.

Booger says

Where I live they should call new developments "Stonehenge" because the houses are so close together that only during the solstice does light penetrate the gaps.

Not to mention getting clues to the location of the Ark of the Covenant and getting gratuitously vaporized.

HeadSet says

My wife's aunt in Colorado said the builders there are no longer allowed to install gas fireplaces. She said it was a "green" initiative.

Marin County mandates all-electric new residential and commercial construction.

Beginning next year (2023), all new residential and commercial construction in Marin must be all electric.

Marin County supervisors voted unanimously on Tuesday to approve an ordinance mandating the change effective Jan. 1. The supervisors voiced support for the move in October.

https://www.mercurynews.com/2022/11/16/marin-county-mandates-all-electric-new-construction/

All in the name of reducing greenhouse gas emissions, the ignorant fools….

ForcedTQ says

All in the name of reducing greenhouse gas emissions, the ignorant fools….

Okay, I'll bite. Why do you think this is a bad thing?
You can burn the natural gas for heat (at 85%) efficiency.
Or you can use it to run a gas turbine with CHP at 45% efficiency to generate electricity.
Use it in an electric resistance heater and you're producing almost twice as much CO2. Oh no!
But wait, you use it to run a heat pump in your home to get 3 times energy that you put into it.
So for the same amount of CO2 you get either
.85 heating units (gas furnace) or
1.35 heating units (heat pump). And yes, you can subtract out 5% for transmission line losses.
Now add renewable/nuclear to the electric generation mix and CO2 emissions continue to go down. YMMV.

BTW, thanks for the head up about the PG&E rate increases. Yikes! (that said, makes my solar pay off sooner...)