Recession Redefinition

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2022 Jul 26, 9:39am   455 views  13 comments

by AmericanKulak   ➕follow (7)   💰tip   ignore  

Here they go, over at the WH/NBER:

What is a recession? While some maintain that two consecutive quarters of falling real GDP constitute a recession, that is neither the official definition nor the way economists evaluate the state of the business cycle. Instead, both official determinations of recessions and economists’ assessment of economic activity are based on a holistic look at the data—including the labor market, consumer and business spending, industrial production, and incomes. Based on these data, it is unlikely that the decline in GDP in the first quarter of this year—even if followed by another GDP decline in the second quarter—indicates a recession.

The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) Business Cycle Dating Committee—the official recession scorekeeper—defines a recession as “a significant decline in economic activity that is spread across the economy and that lasts more than a few months.” The variables the committee typically tracks include real personal income minus government transfers, employment, various forms of real consumer spending, and industrial production. Notably, there are no fixed rules or thresholds that trigger a determination of decline, although the committee does note that in recent decades, they have given more weight to real personal income less transfers and payroll employment.


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2   Ceffer   2022 Jul 26, 10:04am  

It's not a recession until WE say it's a recession, bitch. Just because the paycheck to paycheck family has experienced a real world drop of 15 to 20 percent of their spending value doesn't mean shit. Do I need Alan Greenspan to moneysplain it to you?
4   Al_Sharpton_for_President   2022 Jul 28, 8:13am  

A mostly peaceful recession.
5   Patrick   2022 Jul 28, 9:51am  


yes, it's a recession
when you're right, argue facts, when you're wrong, argue with the dictionary ...

it’s getting downright silly how the people who claim to be running the world seem unable to identify anything and either believe that they can prevent the chickens from noticing that they are being eaten by renaming the fox a bunny and telling everyone that bunnies don’t eat birds...
6   AmericanKulak   2022 Jul 29, 1:15am  

Wikipedia editors removes "Two consecutive quarters..." from page, then locks it.

9   Patrick   2022 Jul 30, 5:41pm  


WASHINGTON, D.C. — Democrats quickly issued a redefinition of the word "loss" after getting stomped in the congressional baseball game by the Republicans, who shut out the Democrats 10-0.

Nancy Pelosi held a press conference announcing that a "loss" is now defined as losing a baseball game by at least 20 runs, saying that sports experts have long disagreed on the exact definition of a loss.

"Yes, some sports commentators have defined 'loss' as any game in which you have fewer runs than the opposing team," acknowledged Pelosi. "But there has never been an officially accepted definition. And many experts are saying this was not actually a loss."

Pelosi went on to say that some experts say a loss is actually three or more consecutive losses, while other say a loss is defined only by what's in your heart, and that everyone is truly a winner.

"Good morning," she added suddenly. "Sunday... m-m-morn... morning?"

At publishing time, Democrats had called for abolishing the congressional baseball game altogether after their tough non-loss loss.
12   Patrick   2022 Jul 31, 8:59am  


Amazon shrinks staff by 100,000, joining Netflix and Google in hiring slowdown

Uh, if you get rid of 100,000 people, that is not a "hiring slowdown". That is a massacre.

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