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I Have Some Bad News About the Economy


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2022 Oct 15, 5:36am   14,402 views  302 comments

by Patrick   ➕follow (60)   💰tip   ignore  

https://www.hennessysview.com/p/i-have-some-bad-news-about-the-economy?publication_id=572577&post_id=78488561&isFreemail=true


Accounts are widely out of balance

How bad, you might be asking yourself, will the economy get? We’re about to find out.




The orange line is US wealth. The blue line is US GDP. The gap is the amount of wealth American households and non-profits must surrender. You see, these two lines must move in lockstep. They do over time. When they get out of sync, something will put them back into sync.

The gap is debt.

Accounts must be settled. It’s called “a reckoning.” And the reckoning is here knocking on the door.

To put this gap into historical perspective, here’s an extended view of the same data with Dr. Hunt’s markups.




From 1951 to about 1997—the year the Monica Lewinsky story broke and Howe and Strauss published The Fourth Turning—the two lines moved in lockstep. Then Alan Greenspan decided to tinker, to grow wealth without growing GDP and without kicking off inflation. ...

What that gap represents is one of two things:

Money stolen from other people (other economies).

Money stolen from future generations of Americans.

How We Borrow from the Future
A few years ago, in the 1990s, we heard a lot of stories parents going to jail for identify theft perpetrated against their own children. About 1990, the government required babies to have a Social Security Number before they left the hospital. (I remember because it happened between our second and third children.)

Some shiftless parents soon realized they could apply for credit using their kids’ SSNs. They could default, and the creditor could do nothing. You can’t collect from a six-week-old infant.

This, of course, constituted credit fraud, so the parents who did this (and there were many) went to jail. (Not sure what happened to their kids who were left with no parents and lousy FICO score, but that’s not the point.)

The point is, all of us have been doing what those parents do only legally. The government allows us to run up our kids’ and grand kids’ debt as long as we do it with the government’s approved identity-theft programs.

So we did.

If you look at that chart, about 1/3 of our household and non-profit wealth is stolen from other generations or other countries. And we have to pay it back. Now. Or soon. ...

How We Borrow from the World
Some months ago, I wrote a series of posts about the US dollar (USD) as the world’s reserve currency and the petrodollar. (Here and here.) To summarize, almost all international debt is settled with USD regardless of the two local currencies involved. Britain settles its debts with Costa Rica in USD, etc. This includes the oil markets. Saudi Arabia, in turn, buys US treasuries (national debt) as a store of value for its copious oil profits. This allows the US run up massive debt knowing there’s always a market for our bonds.

Until there’s not.

Have you notice that Saudi Arbia is drifting out of the US orbit?

I wrote it about in those earlier posts, but the most certain sign of the Kingdom’s pending divorce with from Uncle Sam happened this week. Saudi Arabia disclosed that Joe Biden tried to strong-arm the Saudis into delaying OPEC+ oil production cuts until after the November elections. In diplomatic worlds, this was a slap in the face insult to the US and, particularly, to the Biden regime.

Rumors say Biden threatened to cut military sales to the Saudis if the OPEC+ cuts were announced before the elections. Not only did OPEC+ announce the cuts on its timetable, the Kingdom told the world about Biden’s threat (without disclosing the exact terms or names). Among “partners,” such public humiliation is a sign of pending breakup.

In return, the State Department and Joe Biden announced they would reevaluate the US’s strategic arrangements with Saudi Arabia after the election. That should be interesting.

What it means is that the US might not have as eager a buyer for debt as we’ve grown accustomed to. And that means the price of US treasuries will decline. Less demand means lower prices. When the price of bond goes down, the interest goes up. ...

I’m not saying the Saudis are about to stop taking our checks—I’m saying the for the first time since the Nixon administration, they’re acting like they might. Which means the are going to demand a bigger discount—the difference between the face value of the bond and sale price. That discount is the interest, and the bigger the discount, the less cash we have to spend tomorrow.

That’s one way to close that gap. You reduce the amount of cash you get in return for a future promise to pay. The amount you owe stays the same, but the amount you get now gets smaller.

How Our Kids Get Their Money Back
Remember the two ways we built that gap between wealth and GDP? That’s the first way. The holder of US treasuries want to cash their bonds, and they don’t want to buy new ones.

The gap begins to shrink, and that shrinking is mostly in household wealth.

The second way is intergenerational theft. So how do our kids and grandkids force their accounts settled?

Have you heard about the labor participation rate? Have you heard about the labor shortage?

An odd thing about the jobs numbers in recent months. While the number of “new jobs,” also known as “new hires,” has been strong, the number of people working has been going down, down, down. Why is that? ...

The kids aren’t taking our post-dated checks, either. They’re simply not participating in the US economy—at least, not in the official US economy. They siphoning of that excess household wealth NOW, in the present. They are not working in ways that grows the blue line (GDP). They’re shrinking the gap by lowering the orange line (wealth).

Wonder where inflation is coming from? We’re spending the excess household wealth without increasing the products and services available to buy with it. Inflation is how future generations close that gap. They spend your excess wealth without producing. And it’s happening right before our eyes. ...

In truth, we will only lose our ill-gotten gains.

While, we didn’t personally rob from the kids and foreigners, we were participants in a rigged game—a game that’s getting unrigged in a hurry. We enjoyed the spoils of the petrodollar and zero interest rates.

This account-settling process is called a reckoning, which sound harsh because it is.

https://www.epsilontheory.com/hollow-men-hollow-markets-hollow-world-2/

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17   zzyzzx   2024 Jan 8, 10:53am  

ad says

Its due to stock market and effect of very low interest rates.


FIXED:
Its due to the housing market and effect of very low interest rates.

I really don't think that the stock market is in as much of a bubble as the housing market.
18   AD   2024 Jan 8, 12:57pm  

zzyzzx says


really don't think that the stock market is in as much of a bubble as the housing market.


da tru tru

house price to income ratio is off the chart ... stock valuation is not ...

https://www.multpl.com/s-p-500-pe-ratio
19   AD   2024 Jan 13, 12:40am  

.

need a more productive, motivated and educated workforce...

that improves standard of living and ensures greater value in the economy as unit costs remains the same or decreases over an extended time line ...
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20   AD   2024 Jan 13, 12:58am  

.

Google laying off hundreds of workers and NBC News laying off several dozen staff as well as Twitch laying off about 35% of workforce (~ 500 workers let go).

Seems like there won't be a soft landing as far as the jobs market going into November of this year.
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21   RWSGFY   2024 Jan 13, 9:40am  

ad says


.

Google laying off hundreds of workers and NBC News laying off several dozen staff as well as Twitch laying off about 35% of workforce (~ 500 workers let go).

Seems like there won't be a soft landing as far as the jobs market going into November of this year.
.



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To be fair they were hiring like mad and paying top dollar for almost anybody who could fog a mirror. One of my shooting buddies is a mid-level manager in one of the companies on that list and his bosses basically forced him to hire couple of people who were far from being a good fit for the team. The message was "stop searching, hire whoever you have in the pipeline FUCKING NOW". And they were offered compensation in the same ballpark as their hiring manager. Guess who's out now.
22   GNL   2024 Jan 13, 10:45am  

RWSGFY says

Guess who's out now.

Not the hiring manager, I hope.
23   ForcedTQ   2024 Jan 13, 11:22am  

They did that so they could fire those new hires and show cuts. But they had to have them hired before the hiring freeze.
24   Maga_Chaos_Monkey   2024 Jan 13, 11:44am  

In larger biotechs I've worked in when layoffs come around they wipe out the new youngest employees alongside the older long time employees. This helps them say, "See! No ageism!".
25   AD   2024 Jan 25, 9:46am  

.

As of end of 2023, annual GDP up 3.3% compared to estimate of 2%: https://www.cnbc.com/2024/01/25/gdp-q4-2023-the-us-economy-grew-at-a-3point3percent-pace-in-the-fourth-quarter.html

Not sure if this is being over reported and they will adjust this down after the upcoming November election.

My concern is they will under report PCE to convince the Federal Reserve to decrease the Federal Funds rate to continue the stock market rally.

PCE is reported tomorrow: https://www.bea.gov/data/personal-consumption-expenditures-price-index

The Biden White House narrative is to claim there is a soft landing with no recession (or very mild recession if any) for 2024. Its the same style propaganda with James Carville and "its the economy stupid" back in 1992.

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26   AD   2024 Jan 27, 3:36pm  

.

https://dnyuz.com/2024/01/27/a-famed-analysts-final-forecast-is-the-fall-of-the-u-s-economy/

“The dollar is finished as the world’s reserve currency,” Mr. Bove said matter-of-factly, perched in an armchair outside his home office just north of Tampa, from which he predicted that China will overtake the U.S. economy. No other analysts will say the same because they are, as he put it, “monks praying to money,” unwilling to speak out on the mainstream financial system that employs them.

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27   HeadSet   2024 Jan 27, 6:29pm  

AD says

“The dollar is finished as the world’s reserve currency,”

I have been hearing that since the 1990s.
28   DOGEWontAmountToShit   2024 Jan 27, 8:43pm  

AD says

“The dollar is finished as the world’s reserve currency,” Mr. Bove said matter-of-factly, perched in an armchair outside his home office just north of Tampa, from which he predicted that China will overtake the U.S. economy. No other analysts will say the same because they are, as he put it, “monks praying to money,” unwilling to speak out on the mainstream financial system that employs them.


China is fucked.
29   DOGEWontAmountToShit   2024 Jan 27, 8:45pm  

HeadSet says

AD says


“The dollar is finished as the world’s reserve currency,”

I have been hearing that since the 1990s.


Yep.

"The dollar is falling! The dollar is falling!"


30   AD   2024 Feb 5, 7:41pm  

HeadSet says


I have been hearing that since the 1990s.


See below November 2023 article:

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/7-6-trillion-us-government-040643412.html

$7.6 trillion in interest-bearing US public debt will mature within a year, Apollo's chief economist said in September.

That represents 31% of all outstanding US government debt, adding upward pressure on rates.

This explains why Pocahontas (Senator Warren) and Biden White House is pressuring the Federal Reserve to lower the Fed Funds rate. Jerome Powell said they may lower it from 5.5% to 4.6% this year with inflation ranging from 2% to 3%. PCE, the Fed's preferred inflation measure, is at 2.6%.
31   WookieMan   2024 Feb 5, 8:24pm  

UkraineIsFucked says

China is fucked.

Lol. 100% correct. Has this not been known for almost 2 decades?

US debt is never getting paid. We fucked them and we'll fuck them harder as their demographics crash in China. We're moving out manufacturing. China is a rudderless ship and they don't even know it. We can easily exist in this hemisphere without China. All you CA cats barely leave the state. Look at the chip factory near Anthem, AZ. The structures are like 2 miles long.

China is toast. Russia is toast. We're going to import LNG to Europe. This has been a long term play. We've put China and Russia back 20-30 years. Europe did it on its own. We've cemented our world super power status for the rest of our lifetimes basically.
32   Patrick   2024 Feb 5, 9:06pm  

WookieMan says

We're going to import LNG to Europe.


That's far more expensive that piping it from Russia. I think the pipelines will come back.

Russia seems to be doing fine lately even after Biden sabotaged Nordstream. China does have financial issues at the moment though.
33   AmericanKulak   2024 Feb 5, 9:32pm  

Yeah, the RMB isn't going to replace the dollar as the World's Reserve Currency until it's used... outside of China.

The BRICS is a joke because the S is imploding like all Turd World decolonized states do. It's just happening in slower motion because there are still millions of Whites. GDP is about the same it was 15 years ago, only bumping up temporarily in the flight to commodities in the Financial Crisis before crashing right back, but the Black population continues to explode. When (not if) EFF gets more seats, this will accelerate as ANC will have to move further to the Fannon Left to recapture lost votes. Brazil is a mess. India will not willingly collaborate with China for generations to come.
34   mell   2024 Feb 5, 9:41pm  

In terms of power grids Northern/Western Europe is light years ahead of the US (anywhere). Outages are pretty much unknown
35   AD   2024 Feb 6, 12:38am  

Patrick says

Russia seems to be doing fine lately


True Patrick, as even the Kiev Independent is stating that Russia is doing well despite the economic sanctions: https://kyivindependent.com/russias-increased-wartime-spending-catapults-economy-into-growth/

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36   WookieMan   2024 Feb 6, 4:28am  

mell says

In terms of power grids Northern/Western Europe is light years ahead of the US (anywhere). Outages are pretty much unknown

Yeah, but they don't have things like tornados and thunderstorms (frequently at least). Snow and freezing temps are mild at the lower altitudes. It doesn't start on fire like the US west. No hurricanes. They don't have vast farmland they have to build transmission lines through. We have so many weak spots due to geography.

There's a reason the world was developed in Europe first. Climate. You could grow crops and not die from natural disasters. War is the biggest issue. Maybe a heat wave occasionally.

Patrick says

That's far more expensive that piping it from Russia. I think the pipelines will come back.

Russia seems to be doing fine lately even after Biden sabotaged Nordstream. China does have financial issues at the moment though.

We can't believe the news that comes from Russia or China or anywhere. Even in the US. Russia is for sure hurting. The oligarchs and higher ups are fine, but your common Russian is absolutely hurting. Russia has lost more men in two years than we did in 20 in two wars. I know US Vets that were cheated on or left their state for greener pastures. It's the reality of war. GDP goes down when women leave and men are dying. Russia is in the tank.
37   AmericanKulak   2024 Feb 7, 10:00pm  

There's less distance to cross in Continental Europe. There's hardly a place in Germany where you'd drive more than an hour from one city to the next. You could start at middle of the Harz Mountains and be in either Hannover, Braunschweig, Leipzig, Magdeberg, Gottingen, etc. in under or an hour. If you drove along the Rhine or Danube or Oder, you'd hit an entirely new city (not a satellite or commuter city) every half hour. Same thing in Italy or France.

About half the US you could leave a city like Burlington or Cheyanne or Las Vegas or Salt Lake and not hit another city as large or larger for hours upon hours in most directions. EDIT: Forgot about Montreal from Burlington, only two hours, but that's the only direction.

Total aside: Montpelier, VT is not a city, I've been there. There isn't a single traffic light near the State House, which is tiny, and I think only a couple in the whole city. There are many churches or libraries bigger than the VT State House. It's smaller in size and population with fewer amenities than Florence, OR (which unlike Montpelier, has a McDs), if you've ever been.

Take a virtual drive:
https://www.google.com/maps/@44.2613535,-72.5809733,3a,75y,301.53h,86.81t/data=!3m6!1e1!3m4!1s8cDzCjzerSOI_izxawdYIg!2e0!7i16384!8i8192?entry=ttu
38   AmericanKulak   2024 Feb 7, 10:21pm  

WookieMan says


We can't believe the news that comes from Russia or China or anywhere. Even in the US.

This is a problem that some folks don't understand. Just because the US MSM is lying sacks of shit, doesn't mean PressTV or the MiddleEastEye or AlJeezera or Sputnik is telling the unvarnished or only a slightly embellished version of the truth. They're pushing a line on certain subjects HARD, esp. when that opinion conflicts with Western geopolitical interests.

Killing Suleimani shut the Iranians and their proxies up for years. Giving them cash always results in them getting their proxies to act up. Both when Obama did it and now that Biden/Kerry deposited billions in their Qatari bank account. The way to keep Iran behaved is to smack their elite like top IRGC Generals, not uselessly drone bomb their proxies footsoldiers or underlings, when they act up.
39   AD   2024 Feb 7, 11:18pm  

AmericanKulak says

Killing Suleimani shut the Iranians and their proxies up for years. Giving them cash always results in them getting their proxies to act up.


Yep, give the bully your lunch money does not guarantee he is not going to slap you around and rough you over especially in front of others.

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40   AD   2024 Feb 14, 11:39pm  

I thank Mish at Mish Talk website for this type of informative reporting.

The pandemic-spending spree and party is over. The economy is not great no matter what the Democrat narrative is.

I just hope the Federal Reserve does not get bullied into quantitative easing and/or lowering interest rates for at least the next 6 months.
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41   richwicks   2024 Feb 15, 12:02am  

WookieMan says


US debt is never getting paid. We fucked them and we'll fuck them harder as their demographics crash in China.


No, it's not, but this fucks us, not China.

You know what happens when countries don't pay interest to foreign holders of their debt? They stop accepting their currency. This makes the currency worthless outside of the country that defaulted on their debt. You know what this does to the currency? It makes it entirely worthless outside of the country, and quite often, within the country.

And the US won't default anyhow. Here's what will happen, and already has happened. The Federal Reserve will print up more money (well, create more digits in a computer), the "loan" this money to some 3rd party, and that 3rd party will buy Treasury Bills. You know what this is called?

Quantitative Easing.

This is why interest rates were so fucking low for so fucking long. The Federal Reserve just gave a bunch of money to banks, and then banks turned around and bought Treasury bills, so they didn't need YOUR money, they had billions freshly created by the Federal Reserve - so why pay you any interest at all?

Interest rates at this point, is dependent on foreign investment. If they don't get a return on their fucking investment, they aren't buying shit.

WookieMan says

China is toast. Russia is toast. We're going to import LNG to Europe. This has been a long term play. We've put China and Russia back 20-30 years. Europe did it on its own. We've cemented our world super power status for the rest of our lifetimes basically.


You are deluded. The US produces absolutely nothing the rest of the planet needs at this point. It only creates war. There will be a time where countries simply stop buying anything from the United States.

When the dollar eventually DOES fail, you know what will happen? Food will get really expensive, for US citizens and cheap for everybody outside of this nation. Farmers will become very wealthy, and they will start exporting to foreign nations.

Why do you think Bill Gates is the largest farmer in the United States?
42   Misc   2024 Feb 15, 1:08am  

The unemployment rate is 3.7%. All the government is hiring is DEI castoffs. It's cheaper than having them all running around, mass mobbing CVS stores.
43   AD   2024 Feb 15, 11:37pm  

.

Harry S Dent is on Coast To Coast AM now. He's predicting residential real estate to drop 50% in value and stock market to crash starting in 2025.

Dent says that we did not allow bad debt to be written off (or significantly written down) since 2009 and that economic growth has been all driven by the Federal Reserve and federal government unlike from 1994 to 2001.

Dent said bad debt and bad companies were allowed to naturally dissolve after the dot com bust.

Dent left southern California and is living in Puerto Rico due to weather and tax advantages. I pasted an article below about Dent.

%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%

reference: https://www.thinkadvisor.com/2023/10/16/harry-dent-crash-of-a-lifetime-coming-in-2024/

People think I’m crazy when I say the stock market will go down 86% on the S&P — the worst case but also my most likely case,” Harry Dent Jr., the candid, controversial strategist, argues in an interview with ThinkAdvisor.

“People say, ‘Harry, the Fed won’t let that happen,’” says Dent. “Well, in the end, when there’s a battle between God and central bankers, I’m going to bet on God!”

Several of Dent’s forecasts have been off-base, but the “Contrarian’s Contrarian” has been on target with some significant prognostications (see: https://www.thinkadvisor.com/2021/12/22/harry-dents-stock-market-economic-predictions-1999-2021-how-did-they-turn-out ) .

He correctly predicted Japan’s 1989 bubble burst and recession, the dotcom crash and the populist surge that thrust Donald Trump into the presidency.

For several years now, Dent has been forecasting “the crash of a lifetime.” Now, he says, 2024 will be the year it hits — “two years later than it should have,” according to his calculations. But “it’s starting now,” he insists.
44   AD   2024 Feb 15, 11:41pm  

The above article where Harry S Dent says the market will crash in 2024 is dated in October 2023. Dent says to watch the market in January 2024 and if it is a bad month then the market will be bad in 2024.

Not sure how all this can be during an election year with the Democrats in the White House, unlike in 2008 when the market started to crash.

I go back and recall seeing Senator "The Penguin" (Chuck Schumer) smirking when the banks were starting to fail a couple of months before the November 2008 election.

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45   AD   2024 Feb 16, 12:14am  

richwicks says


The US produces absolutely nothing the rest of the planet needs at this point. It only creates war. There will be a time where countries simply stop buying anything from the United States.

When the dollar eventually DOES fail, you know what will happen? Food will get really expensive, for US citizens and cheap for everybody outside of this nation. Farmers will become very wealthy, and they will start exporting to foreign nations.

Why do you think Bill Gates is the largest farmer in the United States?


Rich, the United States of America does produce. I can see it within my own eyes as their is a Trane air condition plant and a shipyard within 15 minute drive. There is a pipe factory owned by Borusan Berg Pipe and an Oceaneering factory, also.

And we live in a major tourist area.

I can drive north about 30 minutes to Southport and Vernon and there is a lot of agriculture like strawberries and sweet potatoes, and a lumber mill.

I think the USA is self sufficient as far as energy and food. So adequate supply will be available to not cause hyperinflation. And go to Ammo Land website and look at all the ammo made in the USA.

Very Respectfully, AD

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46   AD   2024 Feb 16, 1:03am  

Also Rich Wicks I see more and more people fixing things and being more self sufficient.

I am seeing this more locally as well as nationally with libraries being more of a cultural and educational center such as with repair events, and its not just about lending out books and DVDs.

Also our local library has volunteer events on how to fix and upgrade computers (i.e., switch to Linux Ubuntu) instead of throwing them out and buying new ones.

We need to collectively work together and innovate together, by leveraging the concept of synergy. That is how we can improve (or at least maintain) the standard of living within our communities.

https://americanlibrariesmagazine.org/2023/05/01/fix-it-yourself/

https://americanlibrariesmagazine.org/2017/09/01/libraries-everything-maintenance-repair-cafe/

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47   richwicks   2024 Feb 16, 2:50am  

AD says


I think the USA is self sufficient as far as energy and food. So adequate supply will be available to not cause hyperinflation.


I'm not disputing the US can produce everything people need. What you are forgetting is that producers will be able to EXPORT at a tremendous profit, and as a result, they won't bother selling internally.

The USSR exported vodka and energy supplies because the ruble was worthless. American companies WERE there, but to get money out of the country, they took out commodities of the country. That's how the export trade worked. We can expect a similar situation, but it will be with food. McDonald's famously purchased vodka to sell within the United States. Coke did something similar.

AD says

Also Rich Wicks I see more and more people fixing things and being more self sufficient.


This is good news. One thing I really worry about is people's dependence. It's not just themselves that they are screwing, but everybody else.

Take laptops for example, you can't fix them, but you can't get a laptop you CAN fix because people will buy devices that are impossible to fix. You can't fix an iPhone. I still use a desktop, simply because they last forever, and they are easy to work on. This computer is around 7 years old, and I expect to continue to use it for another 10 years without a problem. I will replace the HDD on it, probably the power supply (I have a crap one!), but this is still more than I need and maybe in another 5 years, a mid range laptop will be as powerful as this is.

Server hardware is great.
48   Rin   2024 Feb 16, 6:01am  

Here's a chart which is very telling, Gold/S&P500 ratio



It shows something different than the simplistic notion that Gold is a hedge against inflation (or sudden hyperinflation). It shows that when QE was on full time and the S&P500 had its biggest run up, Gold was "bearish" or from the priced Gold in USDs perspective, sideways. But using the S&P500 as the denominator, it gives a better picture of what's going on.

Basically, the price of Gold can stay relatively constant, but then the market could crash.
49   richwicks   2024 Feb 16, 4:13pm  

Rin says

Here's a chart which is very telling, Gold/S&P500 ratio



It shows something different than the simplistic notion that Gold is a hedge against inflation (or sudden hyperinflation). It shows that when QE was on full time and the S&P500 had its biggest run up, Gold was "bearish" or from the priced Gold in USDs perspective, sideways. But using the S&P500 as the denominator, it gives a better picture of what's going on.

Basically, the price of Gold can stay relatively constant, but then the market could crash.


Price the S&P against Gold and Silver over the last 100 years. I have a graph of that somewhere, and when I get around to it, I will post it along with data. Price the national debt in terms of the commodities, or any commodity. People are simply unaware, and are encouraged to invest in their own slavery.
50   AD   2024 Feb 17, 1:15am  

richwicks says

I'm not disputing the US can produce everything people need. What you are forgetting is that producers will be able to EXPORT at a tremendous profit, and as a result, they won't bother selling internally.


I see your point as far being able to sell American goods to countries that desire or value them and willing to pay in their more valuable currency.

And then the American goods producers have more buying power by being paid with more valuable foreign currency.

In a way, that could apply to recent Mexico as far as manufacturing American cars like the Ford Maverick truck for the American and Canadian markets.

But I don't think that will apply to basic necessities like food and energy as well as bullet which are all made or originated in the USA. So the basics will be available as far as sustaining a minimum standard of living in the USA.

But more advanced production such as the USA returning to manufacturing of electronics will likely be more tailored to rich foreigners like Singapore and Norway.

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51   AD   2024 Feb 17, 1:27am  

richwicks says

People are simply unaware, and are encouraged to invest in their own slavery.


Rich, so you think they are making poor investments by investing in something like Vanguard Moderate Growth Fund (60% stocks/40% investment grade bonds) ?

What are you then investing in such as for your 401k and IRA ? I'm not sure if you can buy silver coins like Silver Eagles as far as IRA contribution, but you can buy Silver Trust (ticker SLV). I know that is not advisable if you think the currency and economic system is going to nearly collapse.

I've mentioned before that the dollar would be managed to sustain at least some standard of living.

People will be forced to be more innovative and self sufficient as part of adjusting to any decrease in currency or dollar value, and I have faith local communities will assist with this type of economic renaissance.

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52   Rin   2024 Feb 17, 8:31pm  

richwicks says

Price the S&P against Gold and Silver over the last 100 years.


At the same time, being a classic 'Gold Bug' isn't the best way to build an income portfolio. That's why we have dividend stocks like Rio Tinto, Altria, and British-American Tobacco.

Since the S&P500 is being driven by a handful of tech stocks, those stocks can crash the index w/o the price of Gold jumping from $2K/oz to $5K/oz like all the Gold Bugs predict, year after year.

I believe in swing trading the QQQ and then, in place of compounding the earnings into more QQQ, divest them into dividend stocks with a sliver in PMs.
53   AD   2024 Feb 18, 9:08pm  

.

https://www.cnn.com/2024/02/17/business/productivity-boom-inflation-economy-strong-soft-landing/index.html

Another possibility is that companies became more productive last year in anticipation of a recession that never happened, according to economists. The job market last year was robust, but some major companies still cut costs, including through layoffs. For example, Microsoft, Meta, 3M, and Citigroup cut thousands of jobs last year.

“A lot of those companies that laid people off because they were expecting a significant slowdown are now lean and mean,” John Min, chief economist at Monex USA, told CNN. “But the economy did well, so that translated into higher productivity, supporting higher wage growth and fending off inflation from accelerating.”
54   AD   2024 Feb 18, 9:11pm  

Rin says

I believe in swing trading the QQQ and then, in place of compounding the earnings into more QQQ, divest them into dividend stocks with a sliver in PMs.


How do you swing trade ? what do you use ? Relative Strength Indicator (14) ? MACD ? put-to-call ratio (volume and open interest) ?

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55   richwicks   2024 Feb 18, 9:16pm  

AD says

But I don't think that will apply to basic necessities like food and energy as well as bullet which are all made or originated in the USA.


When Argentina went through a currency crisis around 200, the farmers became insanely wealthy and the population was on the edge of starvation.
56   richwicks   2024 Feb 18, 9:21pm  

AD says


Rich, so you think they are making poor investments by investing in something like Vanguard Moderate Growth Fund (60% stocks/40% investment grade bonds) ?


I think buying Google is like taking a gun to your child's head and pulling the trigger.

People don't understand what these companies are. They are surveillance. We aren't entering a police state, we're there.

Do you have any idea how easy it is to end crime today? A 7/11 gets robbed. Not only do they have a camera, an infrared camera is cheap. It's a trivial matter at this point to plaster the face of the perpetrator all over the net, and even if the face is covered, we can see beyond that.

But we don't do this, why?

There's absolutely ZERO interest in reducing crime or making our society better by our government. None.

Let's say that facial recognition isn't that good, right? Let's say that 1 times out of a 100 it's wrong but 99% of the time it's right. Any idea how easy it is to track down criminals NOW? But they don't do it. We could be in a crime free practical utopia now, and there are governments implementing this, but not our government.

Why isn't there a central point for each location "This man robbed the 7/11 at address X in your local area [Picture], if you recognize this person and turn him in, $$$ reward. Contact YYYY"

Most obvious thing in the world, but NOPE.

Did the perpetrator have a cell phone on them? Then they are known. You can find their location by triangulation, follow them back to their home, get them, easy peasy. 15 years ago I thought this would be done, but NOPE. It can be done, easily, but it's not. Why not? Our government WANTS crime, they WANT chaos.

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