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I Have Some Bad News About the Economy


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2022 Oct 15, 5:36am   14,317 views  302 comments

by Patrick   ➕follow (61)   💰tip   ignore  

https://www.hennessysview.com/p/i-have-some-bad-news-about-the-economy?publication_id=572577&post_id=78488561&isFreemail=true


Accounts are widely out of balance

How bad, you might be asking yourself, will the economy get? We’re about to find out.




The orange line is US wealth. The blue line is US GDP. The gap is the amount of wealth American households and non-profits must surrender. You see, these two lines must move in lockstep. They do over time. When they get out of sync, something will put them back into sync.

The gap is debt.

Accounts must be settled. It’s called “a reckoning.” And the reckoning is here knocking on the door.

To put this gap into historical perspective, here’s an extended view of the same data with Dr. Hunt’s markups.




From 1951 to about 1997—the year the Monica Lewinsky story broke and Howe and Strauss published The Fourth Turning—the two lines moved in lockstep. Then Alan Greenspan decided to tinker, to grow wealth without growing GDP and without kicking off inflation. ...

What that gap represents is one of two things:

Money stolen from other people (other economies).

Money stolen from future generations of Americans.

How We Borrow from the Future
A few years ago, in the 1990s, we heard a lot of stories parents going to jail for identify theft perpetrated against their own children. About 1990, the government required babies to have a Social Security Number before they left the hospital. (I remember because it happened between our second and third children.)

Some shiftless parents soon realized they could apply for credit using their kids’ SSNs. They could default, and the creditor could do nothing. You can’t collect from a six-week-old infant.

This, of course, constituted credit fraud, so the parents who did this (and there were many) went to jail. (Not sure what happened to their kids who were left with no parents and lousy FICO score, but that’s not the point.)

The point is, all of us have been doing what those parents do only legally. The government allows us to run up our kids’ and grand kids’ debt as long as we do it with the government’s approved identity-theft programs.

So we did.

If you look at that chart, about 1/3 of our household and non-profit wealth is stolen from other generations or other countries. And we have to pay it back. Now. Or soon. ...

How We Borrow from the World
Some months ago, I wrote a series of posts about the US dollar (USD) as the world’s reserve currency and the petrodollar. (Here and here.) To summarize, almost all international debt is settled with USD regardless of the two local currencies involved. Britain settles its debts with Costa Rica in USD, etc. This includes the oil markets. Saudi Arabia, in turn, buys US treasuries (national debt) as a store of value for its copious oil profits. This allows the US run up massive debt knowing there’s always a market for our bonds.

Until there’s not.

Have you notice that Saudi Arbia is drifting out of the US orbit?

I wrote it about in those earlier posts, but the most certain sign of the Kingdom’s pending divorce with from Uncle Sam happened this week. Saudi Arabia disclosed that Joe Biden tried to strong-arm the Saudis into delaying OPEC+ oil production cuts until after the November elections. In diplomatic worlds, this was a slap in the face insult to the US and, particularly, to the Biden regime.

Rumors say Biden threatened to cut military sales to the Saudis if the OPEC+ cuts were announced before the elections. Not only did OPEC+ announce the cuts on its timetable, the Kingdom told the world about Biden’s threat (without disclosing the exact terms or names). Among “partners,” such public humiliation is a sign of pending breakup.

In return, the State Department and Joe Biden announced they would reevaluate the US’s strategic arrangements with Saudi Arabia after the election. That should be interesting.

What it means is that the US might not have as eager a buyer for debt as we’ve grown accustomed to. And that means the price of US treasuries will decline. Less demand means lower prices. When the price of bond goes down, the interest goes up. ...

I’m not saying the Saudis are about to stop taking our checks—I’m saying the for the first time since the Nixon administration, they’re acting like they might. Which means the are going to demand a bigger discount—the difference between the face value of the bond and sale price. That discount is the interest, and the bigger the discount, the less cash we have to spend tomorrow.

That’s one way to close that gap. You reduce the amount of cash you get in return for a future promise to pay. The amount you owe stays the same, but the amount you get now gets smaller.

How Our Kids Get Their Money Back
Remember the two ways we built that gap between wealth and GDP? That’s the first way. The holder of US treasuries want to cash their bonds, and they don’t want to buy new ones.

The gap begins to shrink, and that shrinking is mostly in household wealth.

The second way is intergenerational theft. So how do our kids and grandkids force their accounts settled?

Have you heard about the labor participation rate? Have you heard about the labor shortage?

An odd thing about the jobs numbers in recent months. While the number of “new jobs,” also known as “new hires,” has been strong, the number of people working has been going down, down, down. Why is that? ...

The kids aren’t taking our post-dated checks, either. They’re simply not participating in the US economy—at least, not in the official US economy. They siphoning of that excess household wealth NOW, in the present. They are not working in ways that grows the blue line (GDP). They’re shrinking the gap by lowering the orange line (wealth).

Wonder where inflation is coming from? We’re spending the excess household wealth without increasing the products and services available to buy with it. Inflation is how future generations close that gap. They spend your excess wealth without producing. And it’s happening right before our eyes. ...

In truth, we will only lose our ill-gotten gains.

While, we didn’t personally rob from the kids and foreigners, we were participants in a rigged game—a game that’s getting unrigged in a hurry. We enjoyed the spoils of the petrodollar and zero interest rates.

This account-settling process is called a reckoning, which sound harsh because it is.

https://www.epsilontheory.com/hollow-men-hollow-markets-hollow-world-2/

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41   richwicks   2024 Feb 15, 12:02am  

WookieMan says


US debt is never getting paid. We fucked them and we'll fuck them harder as their demographics crash in China.


No, it's not, but this fucks us, not China.

You know what happens when countries don't pay interest to foreign holders of their debt? They stop accepting their currency. This makes the currency worthless outside of the country that defaulted on their debt. You know what this does to the currency? It makes it entirely worthless outside of the country, and quite often, within the country.

And the US won't default anyhow. Here's what will happen, and already has happened. The Federal Reserve will print up more money (well, create more digits in a computer), the "loan" this money to some 3rd party, and that 3rd party will buy Treasury Bills. You know what this is called?

Quantitative Easing.

This is why interest rates were so fucking low for so fucking long. The Federal Reserve just gave a bunch of money to banks, and then banks turned around and bought Treasury bills, so they didn't need YOUR money, they had billions freshly created by the Federal Reserve - so why pay you any interest at all?

Interest rates at this point, is dependent on foreign investment. If they don't get a return on their fucking investment, they aren't buying shit.

WookieMan says

China is toast. Russia is toast. We're going to import LNG to Europe. This has been a long term play. We've put China and Russia back 20-30 years. Europe did it on its own. We've cemented our world super power status for the rest of our lifetimes basically.


You are deluded. The US produces absolutely nothing the rest of the planet needs at this point. It only creates war. There will be a time where countries simply stop buying anything from the United States.

When the dollar eventually DOES fail, you know what will happen? Food will get really expensive, for US citizens and cheap for everybody outside of this nation. Farmers will become very wealthy, and they will start exporting to foreign nations.

Why do you think Bill Gates is the largest farmer in the United States?
42   Misc   2024 Feb 15, 1:08am  

The unemployment rate is 3.7%. All the government is hiring is DEI castoffs. It's cheaper than having them all running around, mass mobbing CVS stores.
43   AD   2024 Feb 15, 11:37pm  

.

Harry S Dent is on Coast To Coast AM now. He's predicting residential real estate to drop 50% in value and stock market to crash starting in 2025.

Dent says that we did not allow bad debt to be written off (or significantly written down) since 2009 and that economic growth has been all driven by the Federal Reserve and federal government unlike from 1994 to 2001.

Dent said bad debt and bad companies were allowed to naturally dissolve after the dot com bust.

Dent left southern California and is living in Puerto Rico due to weather and tax advantages. I pasted an article below about Dent.

%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%

reference: https://www.thinkadvisor.com/2023/10/16/harry-dent-crash-of-a-lifetime-coming-in-2024/

People think I’m crazy when I say the stock market will go down 86% on the S&P — the worst case but also my most likely case,” Harry Dent Jr., the candid, controversial strategist, argues in an interview with ThinkAdvisor.

“People say, ‘Harry, the Fed won’t let that happen,’” says Dent. “Well, in the end, when there’s a battle between God and central bankers, I’m going to bet on God!”

Several of Dent’s forecasts have been off-base, but the “Contrarian’s Contrarian” has been on target with some significant prognostications (see: https://www.thinkadvisor.com/2021/12/22/harry-dents-stock-market-economic-predictions-1999-2021-how-did-they-turn-out ) .

He correctly predicted Japan’s 1989 bubble burst and recession, the dotcom crash and the populist surge that thrust Donald Trump into the presidency.

For several years now, Dent has been forecasting “the crash of a lifetime.” Now, he says, 2024 will be the year it hits — “two years later than it should have,” according to his calculations. But “it’s starting now,” he insists.
44   AD   2024 Feb 15, 11:41pm  

The above article where Harry S Dent says the market will crash in 2024 is dated in October 2023. Dent says to watch the market in January 2024 and if it is a bad month then the market will be bad in 2024.

Not sure how all this can be during an election year with the Democrats in the White House, unlike in 2008 when the market started to crash.

I go back and recall seeing Senator "The Penguin" (Chuck Schumer) smirking when the banks were starting to fail a couple of months before the November 2008 election.

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45   AD   2024 Feb 16, 12:14am  

richwicks says


The US produces absolutely nothing the rest of the planet needs at this point. It only creates war. There will be a time where countries simply stop buying anything from the United States.

When the dollar eventually DOES fail, you know what will happen? Food will get really expensive, for US citizens and cheap for everybody outside of this nation. Farmers will become very wealthy, and they will start exporting to foreign nations.

Why do you think Bill Gates is the largest farmer in the United States?


Rich, the United States of America does produce. I can see it within my own eyes as their is a Trane air condition plant and a shipyard within 15 minute drive. There is a pipe factory owned by Borusan Berg Pipe and an Oceaneering factory, also.

And we live in a major tourist area.

I can drive north about 30 minutes to Southport and Vernon and there is a lot of agriculture like strawberries and sweet potatoes, and a lumber mill.

I think the USA is self sufficient as far as energy and food. So adequate supply will be available to not cause hyperinflation. And go to Ammo Land website and look at all the ammo made in the USA.

Very Respectfully, AD

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46   AD   2024 Feb 16, 1:03am  

Also Rich Wicks I see more and more people fixing things and being more self sufficient.

I am seeing this more locally as well as nationally with libraries being more of a cultural and educational center such as with repair events, and its not just about lending out books and DVDs.

Also our local library has volunteer events on how to fix and upgrade computers (i.e., switch to Linux Ubuntu) instead of throwing them out and buying new ones.

We need to collectively work together and innovate together, by leveraging the concept of synergy. That is how we can improve (or at least maintain) the standard of living within our communities.

https://americanlibrariesmagazine.org/2023/05/01/fix-it-yourself/

https://americanlibrariesmagazine.org/2017/09/01/libraries-everything-maintenance-repair-cafe/

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47   richwicks   2024 Feb 16, 2:50am  

AD says


I think the USA is self sufficient as far as energy and food. So adequate supply will be available to not cause hyperinflation.


I'm not disputing the US can produce everything people need. What you are forgetting is that producers will be able to EXPORT at a tremendous profit, and as a result, they won't bother selling internally.

The USSR exported vodka and energy supplies because the ruble was worthless. American companies WERE there, but to get money out of the country, they took out commodities of the country. That's how the export trade worked. We can expect a similar situation, but it will be with food. McDonald's famously purchased vodka to sell within the United States. Coke did something similar.

AD says

Also Rich Wicks I see more and more people fixing things and being more self sufficient.


This is good news. One thing I really worry about is people's dependence. It's not just themselves that they are screwing, but everybody else.

Take laptops for example, you can't fix them, but you can't get a laptop you CAN fix because people will buy devices that are impossible to fix. You can't fix an iPhone. I still use a desktop, simply because they last forever, and they are easy to work on. This computer is around 7 years old, and I expect to continue to use it for another 10 years without a problem. I will replace the HDD on it, probably the power supply (I have a crap one!), but this is still more than I need and maybe in another 5 years, a mid range laptop will be as powerful as this is.

Server hardware is great.
48   Rin   2024 Feb 16, 6:01am  

Here's a chart which is very telling, Gold/S&P500 ratio



It shows something different than the simplistic notion that Gold is a hedge against inflation (or sudden hyperinflation). It shows that when QE was on full time and the S&P500 had its biggest run up, Gold was "bearish" or from the priced Gold in USDs perspective, sideways. But using the S&P500 as the denominator, it gives a better picture of what's going on.

Basically, the price of Gold can stay relatively constant, but then the market could crash.
49   richwicks   2024 Feb 16, 4:13pm  

Rin says

Here's a chart which is very telling, Gold/S&P500 ratio



It shows something different than the simplistic notion that Gold is a hedge against inflation (or sudden hyperinflation). It shows that when QE was on full time and the S&P500 had its biggest run up, Gold was "bearish" or from the priced Gold in USDs perspective, sideways. But using the S&P500 as the denominator, it gives a better picture of what's going on.

Basically, the price of Gold can stay relatively constant, but then the market could crash.


Price the S&P against Gold and Silver over the last 100 years. I have a graph of that somewhere, and when I get around to it, I will post it along with data. Price the national debt in terms of the commodities, or any commodity. People are simply unaware, and are encouraged to invest in their own slavery.
50   AD   2024 Feb 17, 1:15am  

richwicks says

I'm not disputing the US can produce everything people need. What you are forgetting is that producers will be able to EXPORT at a tremendous profit, and as a result, they won't bother selling internally.


I see your point as far being able to sell American goods to countries that desire or value them and willing to pay in their more valuable currency.

And then the American goods producers have more buying power by being paid with more valuable foreign currency.

In a way, that could apply to recent Mexico as far as manufacturing American cars like the Ford Maverick truck for the American and Canadian markets.

But I don't think that will apply to basic necessities like food and energy as well as bullet which are all made or originated in the USA. So the basics will be available as far as sustaining a minimum standard of living in the USA.

But more advanced production such as the USA returning to manufacturing of electronics will likely be more tailored to rich foreigners like Singapore and Norway.

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51   AD   2024 Feb 17, 1:27am  

richwicks says

People are simply unaware, and are encouraged to invest in their own slavery.


Rich, so you think they are making poor investments by investing in something like Vanguard Moderate Growth Fund (60% stocks/40% investment grade bonds) ?

What are you then investing in such as for your 401k and IRA ? I'm not sure if you can buy silver coins like Silver Eagles as far as IRA contribution, but you can buy Silver Trust (ticker SLV). I know that is not advisable if you think the currency and economic system is going to nearly collapse.

I've mentioned before that the dollar would be managed to sustain at least some standard of living.

People will be forced to be more innovative and self sufficient as part of adjusting to any decrease in currency or dollar value, and I have faith local communities will assist with this type of economic renaissance.

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52   Rin   2024 Feb 17, 8:31pm  

richwicks says

Price the S&P against Gold and Silver over the last 100 years.


At the same time, being a classic 'Gold Bug' isn't the best way to build an income portfolio. That's why we have dividend stocks like Rio Tinto, Altria, and British-American Tobacco.

Since the S&P500 is being driven by a handful of tech stocks, those stocks can crash the index w/o the price of Gold jumping from $2K/oz to $5K/oz like all the Gold Bugs predict, year after year.

I believe in swing trading the QQQ and then, in place of compounding the earnings into more QQQ, divest them into dividend stocks with a sliver in PMs.
53   AD   2024 Feb 18, 9:08pm  

.

https://www.cnn.com/2024/02/17/business/productivity-boom-inflation-economy-strong-soft-landing/index.html

Another possibility is that companies became more productive last year in anticipation of a recession that never happened, according to economists. The job market last year was robust, but some major companies still cut costs, including through layoffs. For example, Microsoft, Meta, 3M, and Citigroup cut thousands of jobs last year.

“A lot of those companies that laid people off because they were expecting a significant slowdown are now lean and mean,” John Min, chief economist at Monex USA, told CNN. “But the economy did well, so that translated into higher productivity, supporting higher wage growth and fending off inflation from accelerating.”
54   AD   2024 Feb 18, 9:11pm  

Rin says

I believe in swing trading the QQQ and then, in place of compounding the earnings into more QQQ, divest them into dividend stocks with a sliver in PMs.


How do you swing trade ? what do you use ? Relative Strength Indicator (14) ? MACD ? put-to-call ratio (volume and open interest) ?

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55   richwicks   2024 Feb 18, 9:16pm  

AD says

But I don't think that will apply to basic necessities like food and energy as well as bullet which are all made or originated in the USA.


When Argentina went through a currency crisis around 200, the farmers became insanely wealthy and the population was on the edge of starvation.
56   richwicks   2024 Feb 18, 9:21pm  

AD says


Rich, so you think they are making poor investments by investing in something like Vanguard Moderate Growth Fund (60% stocks/40% investment grade bonds) ?


I think buying Google is like taking a gun to your child's head and pulling the trigger.

People don't understand what these companies are. They are surveillance. We aren't entering a police state, we're there.

Do you have any idea how easy it is to end crime today? A 7/11 gets robbed. Not only do they have a camera, an infrared camera is cheap. It's a trivial matter at this point to plaster the face of the perpetrator all over the net, and even if the face is covered, we can see beyond that.

But we don't do this, why?

There's absolutely ZERO interest in reducing crime or making our society better by our government. None.

Let's say that facial recognition isn't that good, right? Let's say that 1 times out of a 100 it's wrong but 99% of the time it's right. Any idea how easy it is to track down criminals NOW? But they don't do it. We could be in a crime free practical utopia now, and there are governments implementing this, but not our government.

Why isn't there a central point for each location "This man robbed the 7/11 at address X in your local area [Picture], if you recognize this person and turn him in, $$$ reward. Contact YYYY"

Most obvious thing in the world, but NOPE.

Did the perpetrator have a cell phone on them? Then they are known. You can find their location by triangulation, follow them back to their home, get them, easy peasy. 15 years ago I thought this would be done, but NOPE. It can be done, easily, but it's not. Why not? Our government WANTS crime, they WANT chaos.
57   AD   2024 Feb 18, 9:30pm  

richwicks says

Did the perpetrator have a cell phone on them? Then they are known. You can find their location by triangulation, follow them back to their home, get them, easy peasy. 15 years ago I thought this would be done, but NOPE. It can be done, easily, but it's not. Why not? Our government WANTS crime, they WANT chaos.


yep, Cloward Piven Strategy and anarcho tyranny

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58   WookieMan   2024 Feb 19, 6:41am  

richwicks says

There's absolutely ZERO interest in reducing crime or making our society better by our government. None.

In CA I guess. I know enough of the tech and have seen it in governmental uses here in IL. I've seen the the back end of it. They can track you in a car at stop lights.

I've been in a room of a million person county and they have cameras that can recognize you in a car. That's why I laugh at people about trying to protect their privacy. The game is over. You lost. Trust me. I've seen systems at minor governmental levels that are beyond the scope anyone even knows about.
59   fdhfoiehfeoi   2024 Feb 19, 7:20am  

Seems that Gates, Bezos, and Zuckerberg have all sold off a large number of shares the past past few months. What do they know that you don't..?
60   HeadSet   2024 Feb 19, 8:16am  

richwicks says

Did the perpetrator have a cell phone on them? Then they are known. You can find their location by triangulation, follow them back to their home, get them, easy peasy. 15 years ago I thought this would be done, but NOPE. It can be done, easily, but it's not. Why not? Our government WANTS crime, they WANT chaos.

It was done to track down the J6 crowd.
61   AD   2024 Feb 19, 3:12pm  

richwicks says


There's absolutely ZERO interest in reducing crime or making our society better by our government. None.


But the locals including Bay County Sheriff Office does post video and photos to respond to crime and to prevent further crime.

I hope you enjoy the videos above in the Facebook page, Rich :-)

https://www.facebook.com/christinei2/posts/10110363805003561

This site Josie on the Go and Rickey Stokes News page have frequent posts (with links) like the one above and below.
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.

I wish we could send some of these hood rats to B.A.C.A.H's hood. Those snarky, smug and super over-achieving Yellow and White Liberals in California need a good taste of this. By the way, where is Marcus ? I think Marcus is a public school teacher in Calfornia and he use to post a lot on Patnet.

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62   Rin   2024 Feb 19, 8:24pm  

AD says


Rin says

I believe in swing trading the QQQ and then, in place of compounding the earnings into more QQQ, divest them into dividend stocks with a sliver in PMs.

How do you swing trade ? what do you use ? Relative Strength Indicator (14) ? MACD ? put-to-call ratio (volume and open interest) ?


I'm keeping it simple, the bullish trend & momentum are confirmed by the price action > 120 day EMA the 14 period ADX > 25.

Then, the oscillation of the smoothed (%D) 21 period Stochastic RSI circa 15% and 85%, give the oversold and overbought zones for entry & exit.

And at most, the changing slope of the MCAD histogram, as it peaks & then diminishes or vice versa, give the price action exhaustion areas. This is a way
of exiting the trade if the slope flats out before the Stochastic RSI gives a confirmation.

And I don't short any of this as the bulls are clearly in charge and have even driven the MCAD histogram & StochRSI levels to higher highs, after a pause.
63   Maga_Chaos_Monkey   2024 Feb 19, 9:01pm  

richwicks says

Why not?


Hopefully it's because a lot of people still value privacy and don't want to be tracked by the government.

I'd imagine those "a lot of people" are Gen-X or older IF that's even true.
64   Maga_Chaos_Monkey   2024 Feb 19, 9:11pm  

WookieMan says

The game is over. You lost. Trust me.


Probably. I have a great fuzz buster that has GPS (from 2007 no less; paid an extra $50 to get one with those rare BLUE LEDs; you should see my reef tank now) that I didn't buy for speeding. At one point in the SF bay area traffic cameras were popping up everywhere (deep in neighborhoods) and it had a database you can update to detect those, speed traps, bridges that have fallen out etc.,. I believe the cameras were outlawed. They certainly disappeared.

It remembers where X/K/Ka signals are coming from (yes, I disable X and K) and blocks false non-cop signals (always come from same gps coords over time) so it's super quiet and true. It also has a you're about to get a ticket notification system: laser detector.

I still use it (fuck, cops everywhere in Texas vs. Cali!) even though I get notices from tech that may be arguable better in the rental cars I drive in. (Mine is nearly 22 years old)

Last month I got a ticket in the mail from Leon Valley. I was behind a 3rd wheel making a left at an intersection and he didn't know how to drive it. He fucking stopped in the middle of the intersection for a while with me behind him and the light changed.

A camera maybe 300ft in the air and 1/8th of a mile away got me. My car was such a small portion of the original picture. As far as I know there is no app for those.
65   Maga_Chaos_Monkey   2024 Feb 19, 9:13pm  

HeadSet says

It was done to track down the J6 crowd.


Yeah, a week before or so I told my dad: This is a trap. I hope these people don't bring their cell phones.
66   Maga_Chaos_Monkey   2024 Feb 19, 9:17pm  

AD says

I wish we could send some of these hood rats to B.A.C.A.H's hood. Those snarky, smug and super over-achieving Yellow and White Liberals in California need a good taste of this.


Probably not. I don't think he lives in one of those neighborhoods but instead what was a blue collar normal neighborhood that also appreciated a fuck ton vs. the fortress areas. He probably already has both hood rats and regular people but I suspect the hood rats are being pushed out.

East San Jose?
67   AD   2024 Feb 19, 10:50pm  

Rin says

if the slope flats out before the Stochastic RSI gives a confirmation


The slope flats out means the MACD is steady or constant ?

and for how long ? which MACD ? 200 minus 50 ? do you use exponential moving average or simple moving average ?

RSI is helpful as far as 14 day trading period. Look at ticker "GOOGL" with a RSI(14) now around 30. Not sure if there is enough downside risk toward $135 this week. Seems more upside potential for GOOGL this week.

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68   WookieMan   2024 Feb 19, 11:38pm  

just_passing_through says

Probably. I have a great fuzz buster that has GPS (from 2007 no less; paid an extra $50 to get one with those rare BLUE LEDs; you should see my reef tank now) that I didn't buy for speeding. At one point in the SF bay area traffic cameras were popping up everywhere (deep in neighborhoods) and it had a database you can update to detect those, speed traps, bridges that have fallen out etc.,. I believe the cameras were outlawed. They certainly disappeared.

Driving wise, I know you said it wasn't for speeding, but I just drive like a geezer. I also know how stop lights at least are programmed from fiends and clients of my wife. I can see the light a quarter mile out (since I'm mostly rural) and know to let off the pedal or speed up timing wise. Also check your lights on your car. I check them once a week. That's what you'll get pulled over for 7 out of 10 times. Not speeding. Gotta be going 15-20 over for them to want to get out of the car and potentially get shot.

I'm lazy and don't do my own oil changes. When I arrive they ask me what services I want. Check my head lights, turn signals, brake light and license plate light. Then I say oil change. A $15 head light change is cheaper than a lot of driving outcomes I put myself in. We always get hotels at events. $150 versus $5k for a DUI? I consider it insurance.

Knocking on wood currently, I was last pulled over speeding when I was 18. My car was searched and I was groped by a female cop in a pat down. She somehow missed 20 beers in my back pack... Dry county on Sundays at my wife's college at the time. My backpack was literally the only thing in the car. One of my first anecdotal experiences where I realized most people suck at their job. That was an easy $150 more in revenue. And I agreed to be searched. Was sober. Kind of a crazy experience as basically a kid still. It was a mini van as well. She thought I was hauling drugs to a college town in Western IL.
69   Rin   2024 Feb 20, 7:41am  

AD says

and for how long ? which MACD ? 200 minus 50 ? do you use exponential moving average or simple moving average ?


I'm taking a much more simplistic approach to using the MCAD, all defaults (12,26,9) & EMAs, and you can tell easily where the price exhaustion points are for the QQQ. The caveat is that the price action stays above the 120 day EMA for the market to be bullish.


70   AD   2024 Feb 20, 7:55am  

Rin says

The caveat is that the price action stays above the 120 day EMA for the market to be bullish.


That happened around 23 October 2023 ?

Now the stock is well above the 120 day EMA, so is a false bottom now forming ?

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71   Rin   2024 Feb 20, 8:07am  

AD says

That happened around 23 October 2023 ?

Now the stock is well above the 120 day EMA, so is a false bottom now forming ?


Right now, the ADX is strong, the smoothed StochRSI is in oversold territory but hasn't reversed its slope (towards upward) so all it's looking good that this is a real "bottom" in formation in terms of another bounce. I want at least the StochRSI to slope upwards as its heading into 15% or the MCAD histogram's slope to flatten again.
72   AD   2024 Feb 20, 8:13am  

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Check out Googl. It dropped to a RSI (14 days) of around 30. Look at how much its been beaten down

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and very low ratios for put to call (volume today and open interest) for this Friday's contracts expiration

https://www.barchart.com/stocks/quotes/GOOGL/put-call-ratios

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look at the very high premiums such as $148 strike... 96% chance of expiring out of money yet an annualized gain of at least 14% ... the rule for me is that the % expiring out of the money added to the gain needs to equal at least 100%

if I am at risk of being in the money such as the stock is around $147 on Wednesday afternoon, then I am rolling it up by "buy to close" and then "sell to open" with a strike of at least $149 for the next week's Friday expiration.

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73   AD   2024 Feb 20, 9:43am  

Rin says

I want at least the StochRSI to slope upwards


you look for RSI clearing past a recent low by increasing at least 15% from that low ?

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74   Misc   2024 Feb 25, 5:01am  

So now California is projected to have a budget shortfall of $73 billion.

I personally don't know how accurate that forecast is because if a sizeable number of Nvidia employees cash out their stock options...well Newsom could even have a budget surplus to give even more free money to illegals.

Stock market gains don't directly tie into the CPI, but all that free money from Nvidia gains...well some of it will find its way into real estate (last count 32% of existing home sales were all cash)...the rest well it's a free money smorgasbord for all kinds of consumer spending.

We will have to see how the rest of the year pans out for stock market gains.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/california-faces-deficit-difficulty-as-predictions-show-26-rise-to-73-billion/ss-BB1iQTSk?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=U531&cvid=f001f92aff72416eabc692f76d67b360&ei=26
75   fdhfoiehfeoi   2024 Feb 29, 11:37am  

That would be a net loss of nearly $100 billion. The budget was plus about $30 billion.
76   fdhfoiehfeoi   2024 Feb 29, 11:37am  

Another insider, the Waltons sold $4.5 billion worth of shares recently. If you're holding stock you should be getting very nervous...
77   AD   2024 Feb 29, 12:25pm  

NuttBoxer says


Another insider, the Waltons sold $4.5 billion worth of shares recently. If you're holding stock you should be getting very nervous...


Walmart stock has increased about 12% a year over the last 5 years, excluding reinvesting its +1.2% annual dividend.... a lot of this is driven by the pandemic spending and inflation was about 23% over last 5 years (compared to Walmart stock appreciating 77%)

They could be cashing out as part of a plan just like Bezos is cashing out his Amazon stock, and Bill Gates reducing his ownership of Microsoft going back ton the early 2000's.
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79   AD   2024 Feb 29, 1:59pm  

UkraineIsFucked says

Hey PatNet Fed Rate Cut Experts!

WTF ya gonna do now?


The only matter is that overall inflation or PCE is now at 2.4% for the last 12 months and likely the Fed will be politically pressured by the Democrats to cut the Fed Funds rate from 5.5% to 4.5% if annual PCE averages less than 2.75% for at least 6 consecutive months.

Again, go back to the recent interview of Jerome Powell by 60 Minutes when he said rate cuts are possible if inflation remains between 2 and 3%.

I see the Biden Admin doing whatever it can to make sure there is no spike in gasoline and diesel prices until after election day.

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80   AD   2024 Feb 29, 3:04pm  

.

Mish at Mish Talk and The Wolfman at Wolf Street have been covering rental cost. They both have been tracking median household income and its real or inflation adjusted increases when reporting about household costs and standard of living.

Right now for Bay County, FL, anecdotally the cost of living continues to be manageable for the average service worker making $15 an hour and renting a bedroom in a 3 bedroom townhome within 2 miles of the beach.

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