by Patrick ➕follow (59) ignore (2)
« First « Previous Comments 421 - 460 of 465 Next » Last » Search these comments
WookieMan says
Illegals are a non-factor. Small used car dealers will sell to anyone with a pulse. They don't care about legal status because they can repo the car the minute you miss a 25% interest payment and still walk out ahead. That's the game.
Not if the car is south of the border.
Hawaii tourism industry is in recession
https://www.sfgate.com/hawaii/article/hawaii-travel-visitors-summer-decline-20383620.php
Hawaii tourism industry is in recession
Job market is not doing good:
Someone will give me shit, but I look at roughly 3 things I can see in my area. Lumber, Trains and Jets at the local airport. Lumber I know they have plans to expand their lot. Freight trains are running every 20 minutes through town. $20-50M jets are at both small airports near me.
there simply is no housing crash and there is no recession
no need for prices to crash as not enough home owners are heading for the exits as far as fire sales of their homes
AD says
no need for prices to crash as not enough home owners are heading for the exits as far as fire sales of their homes
If houses on the markets are not selling because the sellers can't/won't lower their prices to those buyers can afford, then there is only one, inevitable outcome: a crash
it's maybe a neutral to buyers market now.
mell says
it's maybe a neutral to buyers market now.
Compared to 5 years ago it is not a buyers market. It’s actually probably more of a sellers market despite interest rates much higher than 5 years ago. Houses sell pretty quick in much neck of the woods, most of the good ones sell at or before they even have an open house. So if anything it is a Sellers, bankers and cash buyers market. The people buying on credit are really screwed right now, which is why they just keep building more and more apartments for the serfs to live in.
about 40% of homes are owned without mortgages
They are actively lowering it from what I have seen, which is what makes the prices stagnate. They come on the market with an expectation by the seller of 5% compounding interest p.a. since they bought it, and when nobody bites they start lowering them, and then they sell anywhere between 5%-20% of the original ask. But they all sell within 1-6 months except for very few.
As I mentioned maybe going back to 2022, the air may slowly be let out of the housing asset balloon or bubble but its not likely to crash. It likely will drop a little over time while household income increases about 2.5% a year.
They are actively lowering it from what I have seen
AD says
about 40% of homes are owned without mortgages
Yes, and that rate of no-mortgage homes has been steadily rising over the last decade. Only partly due to aging retirees, as about half of these paid for home are owned by people not yet at retirement age.
But a whopping 85% of those job gains came in just two sectors, according to calculations by Mike Konczal, a former Biden economic official: education and health care.
mell says
They are actively lowering it from what I have seen, which is what makes the prices stagnate. They come on the market with an expectation by the seller of 5% compounding interest p.a. since they bought it, and when nobody bites they start lowering them, and then they sell anywhere between 5%-20% of the original ask. But they all sell within 1-6 months except for very few.
That is the same situation as around here (coastal Virginia). I am also seeing a few bank foreclosures on upscale homes like this:
Do not let that $400k "asking price" fool you. That is a beachfront home that will fetch at least $1 million even in a foreclosure sale.
About this home
2525 Manion Dr is a 4,324 square foot house on a 0.89 acre lot with 3 bedrooms and 3 bathrooms. - it last sold on June 14, 2002 for $759,000. Based on Redfin's Williamsburg data, we estimate the home's value is $1,329,036.
price declines.
If the prices go back to 2020 levels I will be shocked. But if interest rates don’t go back to 2020 levels even a modest correction will still not make housing more affordable. And mark my words, if interest rates do go back to 2020 levels, prices will stabilize if not rise even higher.
Price declines as in a majority of people selling houses for less than they paid for them?
Some of those who bought in the past 5 years though may sell for a small loss.
Price declines as in a majority of people selling houses for less than they paid for them?
Doubtful. But I do agree all real estate is local, so maybe coastal enclaves where prices rose higher than incomes allow, of course there will be corrections. But in many places there will be no correction, as there was no bubble. Just a growing disparity between the haves and have nots.
If the prices go back to 2020 levels I will be shocked. But if interest rates don’t go back to 2020 levels even a modest correction will still not make housing more affordable. And mark my words, if interest rates do go back to 2020 levels, prices will stabilize if not rise even higher.
The only way we see housing become more affordable in the next 5 years is if people start losing jobs en masse. Of course if that happens we will see plenty of supply and cratering demand (except by investors not SFH owners).
I believe this it be the most accurate forecast. Especially the comment "Just a growing disparity between the haves and have nots." I also believe this disparity will only get worse.
GNL says
I believe this it be the most accurate forecast. Especially the comment "Just a growing disparity between the haves and have nots." I also believe this disparity will only get worse.
Disparity is a false metric. The "have nots" are living the best quality life ever. As for how much the "haves" have: you can eat, drink and fuck only so much until you reach your physical limitations, so the difference between having $100M and $100B are basically moot.
« First « Previous Comments 421 - 460 of 465 Next » Last » Search these comments
patrick.net
An Antidote to Corporate Media
1,314,950 comments by 15,568 users - WookieMan online now