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Today is the day! Sell stocks, invest bonds!


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2022 Nov 11, 8:30am   8,932 views  74 comments

by Shaman   ➕follow (4)   💰tip   ignore  

The market had a nice bump (exactly as I predicted) https://patrick.net/post/1347675/2022-10-05-the-stock-market-is-wrong-the-economy?start=1#comment-1891329 post election, indeed rising over the couple of weeks before the election. We have reached another peak, and the optimism will dribble out of the market quickly. I firmly expect drops in stock value to be the rule going forward for a few months. First it will be tax loss realization, as investors take losses they can write off on taxes for this year. That will depress stock prices, which will mean they will hold off on buying more for a while. This will become a self-perpetuating trend as more bad economic news rolls in. I expect heavy stock value losses in the early parts or next year. Perhaps even all year long as we saw in 2008.

I reinvested my investments in bonds yesterday, and switched my kids’ 529 college savings plan investments to bonds today. So I’m putting my own money on this bet, and I’m going all in.

BEAR MARKET alert!

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74   AD   2024 Aug 28, 11:48pm  

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As far as bonds, stocks and economy, notice everytime the 10 Yr minus 2 Yr is no more than Zero, within a year there is a recession.

Look at the 2024 values, and if this trend or pattern is true, then expect a recession within 6 to 9 months.

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/T10Y2Y

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