3
0

Today is the day! Sell stocks, invest bonds!


               
2022 Nov 11, 8:30am   12,498 views  83 comments

by Shaman   follow (4)  

The market had a nice bump (exactly as I predicted) https://patrick.net/post/1347675/2022-10-05-the-stock-market-is-wrong-the-economy?start=1#comment-1891329 post election, indeed rising over the couple of weeks before the election. We have reached another peak, and the optimism will dribble out of the market quickly. I firmly expect drops in stock value to be the rule going forward for a few months. First it will be tax loss realization, as investors take losses they can write off on taxes for this year. That will depress stock prices, which will mean they will hold off on buying more for a while. This will become a self-perpetuating trend as more bad economic news rolls in. I expect heavy stock value losses in the early parts or next year. Perhaps even all year long as we saw in 2008.

I reinvested my investments in bonds yesterday, and switched my kids’ 529 college savings plan investments to bonds today. So I’m putting my own money on this bet, and I’m going all in.

BEAR MARKET alert!

Comments 1 - 3 of 83       Last »     Search these comments

1   clambo   2022 Nov 11, 9:17am  

YOLO baby.
I have to decide what to do with my upcoming RMD money.
I'm just patiently waiting (hoping) for WFC to get up to $54.
Maybe I will buy something high yield besides my Vanguard High Yield funds (stocks, corporate bonds, munis)
I am curious about the covered call funds which pay monthly.
2   Hircus   2022 Nov 11, 9:40am  

clambo says


I am curious about the covered call funds which pay monthly.


I was thinking about those recently. The good is if all they do is sell covered calls, it seems unlikely they could blow up on you. The price should be pretty stable unless demand for calls falls through the floor, destroying their ability to generate income.

But I can also think of a new risk. Selling covered calls basically makes constant bets about how much capital appreciation will occur in a given time period, and is willing to discard the excess returns above the expected level in exchange for income. If the underlying stocks experience a sudden burst in value, possibly due to inflation adjustments, this might sting. Seems to me a covered call fund is likely to get devalued by inflation quite a bit more than an equivalent fund which just holds the same stocks, IF the inflation price adjustments are sudden/unexpected/bursty. But maybe the fund managers can anticipate some of it.
3   Shaman   2022 Nov 11, 10:09am  

FarmersWon says

Too late.
You took all the losses and will lose on gains too.
Should have done few months ago.


A few months ago (August) the DOW had an extremely short term peak of 33900. I just sold at 400 less than that. I feel pretty good about my timing. If your crystal ball works better perhaps you can share?

Comments 1 - 3 of 83       Last »     Search these comments

Please register to comment:

api   best comments   contact   latest images   memes   one year ago   users   suggestions   gaiste