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Today is the day! Sell stocks, invest bonds!
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2022 Nov 11, 8:30am 8,928 views 74 comments
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68
AD
2024 May 30, 10:20pm
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2024 May 30, 10:20pm
The stock market is erasing a lot of the COVID pandemic gains.
On one of several websites that track the stock market metrics, I saw that the inflation-adjusted S&P 500 is at the same level it was in October 2021 and only about 13.5% above its January 2021 level.
https://www.multpl.com/inflation-adjusted-s-p-500
This equates to an average annualized real gain of about 3.7% from January 2021.
I suspect it may drop from 3.7% to below 2% by this September as evidenced by recent major earnings disappointments such as today by SalesForce.
Historically the S&P 500's real annual gain or return is at least 7%.
On one of several websites that track the stock market metrics, I saw that the inflation-adjusted S&P 500 is at the same level it was in October 2021 and only about 13.5% above its January 2021 level.
https://www.multpl.com/inflation-adjusted-s-p-500
This equates to an average annualized real gain of about 3.7% from January 2021.
I suspect it may drop from 3.7% to below 2% by this September as evidenced by recent major earnings disappointments such as today by SalesForce.
Historically the S&P 500's real annual gain or return is at least 7%.
70
AD
2024 Jul 27, 10:46pm
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2024 Jul 27, 10:46pm
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As far as the above post, I was expecting once interest rates decrease a little more and then steady, then the Vanguard Total Bond Market fund (ticker: BND) will steady also.
It was $90 in July 2020 and bottomed to $68 last October, when the 10 year Treasury peaked to 5% (which is now at 4.2%). BND is now $73.
BND average annual return is 2.9% since its creation in April 2007.
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As far as the above post, I was expecting once interest rates decrease a little more and then steady, then the Vanguard Total Bond Market fund (ticker: BND) will steady also.
It was $90 in July 2020 and bottomed to $68 last October, when the 10 year Treasury peaked to 5% (which is now at 4.2%). BND is now $73.
BND average annual return is 2.9% since its creation in April 2007.
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73
FortwayeAsFuckJoeBiden
2024 Jul 28, 9:59am
Eman says
I think real report card comes from god and soul, perhaps the world we leave behind in some ways, and footsteps we followed. i’ve seen poor and people with no opportunity in life never making it, and i’ve seen people who succeeded financially despite hardships. it’s all over the place. I’m sure you’ve seen it all too. at the end we are just dust in the wind.
richwicks says
Eman says
DD214 says
As much as some don’t like to admit, this is partially true.
I guess Sam Bankman Fried, Bernie Madoff, Ghislane Maxwell, Jeffrey Epstein, Nancy Pelosi, Joe Biden, Jeff Zuckerberg, Jeff Bezos, Bill Gates, etc are just really good people doing quite well. It's not like they are just criminals or something...
That was why I said it’s partially true as there will always be some exceptions. However, it’s generally true in most cases. 😂
I think real report card comes from god and soul, perhaps the world we leave behind in some ways, and footsteps we followed. i’ve seen poor and people with no opportunity in life never making it, and i’ve seen people who succeeded financially despite hardships. it’s all over the place. I’m sure you’ve seen it all too. at the end we are just dust in the wind.
74
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2024 Aug 28, 11:48pm
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2024 Aug 28, 11:48pm
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As far as bonds, stocks and economy, notice everytime the 10 Yr minus 2 Yr is no more than Zero, within a year there is a recession.
Look at the 2024 values, and if this trend or pattern is true, then expect a recession within 6 to 9 months.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/T10Y2Y
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As far as bonds, stocks and economy, notice everytime the 10 Yr minus 2 Yr is no more than Zero, within a year there is a recession.
Look at the 2024 values, and if this trend or pattern is true, then expect a recession within 6 to 9 months.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/T10Y2Y
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I reinvested my investments in bonds yesterday, and switched my kids’ 529 college savings plan investments to bonds today. So I’m putting my own money on this bet, and I’m going all in.
BEAR MARKET alert!