patrick.net

HeadSet says

HeadSet says

WookieMan says

I don't play the stock game, but I'd be shorting if I was a gambler.

Tesla Stock trading about $170 today. Let's check back later and see if shorting would have won.

Tesla has dropped below $150, so a short position would have won.

I think it's just beginning. I don't think it will be a blood bath, but it's simple market saturation for a product 4-8% of society would buy. I can promise you between the kids goofing off around town and my walks, there's not a single Tesla or EV in our town with 800 homes.

You simply cannot sell them to rural folks. Suburban folks yes. City yes. But it's still a low percentage besides cities. I was just at a track meet yesterday in hill billy IL. 1,000 people with the kids. I'd guess 300-400 cars. Not one Tesla. No EV's at all. Maxed out parking, so yes I drove around the lot quite a bit as I was late. When you have that many cars and there's not ONE, that business model is not sustainable.

Then throw out the Pontiac Aztec of trucks and you've fucked yourself. I actually like Musk, but he's making some big mistakes. I'd keep shorting it, but again, not advice as I don't do individual stocks. I really don't see now it's going to work. High prices, government subsidies needed to break even, no infrastructure support, etc. It's a recipe for disaster.

Car rental operator Hertz (HTZ) reported it lost another $200 million due to its EV gamble.

In its first quarter earnings report, Hertz said it “upsized” its prior EV fleet drawdown plans by an additional 10,000 EVs, which led to the company incurring a $195 million charge to vehicle depreciation for writing down the value of EVs held for sale.

The company previously said it would sell off 20,000 EVs from its fleet, meaning it will now dispose of 30,000 EVs in its fleet through the end of 2024. Add today’s charge to the $245 million write-down taken in Q4, and the company has now lost $440 million on its EV gambit.

Hertz’s EV fleet — which once stood at 60,000 EVs, will be cut down to half that at 30,000 EVs. A third of Hertz’s EV fleet was from Tesla (TSLA), with the rest coming from Polestar (PSNY), Volvo (VLVLY), and Chevrolet (GM).

For the quarter, Hertz reported an adjusted loss of $1.28 a share, wider than the $0.44 loss analysts were expecting. Hertz reported an adjusted net income loss of $392 million, more than double the $147 million loss expected.

Hertz stock was down 20% in midday trading.

Hertz’s depreciation per unit (DPU) soared to $592 in the first quarter, jumping from the $498 it saw last quarter and more than double the $253 it reported in Q1 last year. Hertz blamed the deterioration in DPU on losses from the sales of gas-powered vehicles as well as on losses from the market value of EVs in its fleet and from the disposition of other EVs.

There weren’t just financial costs to Hertz’s EV bet. Last month, Hertz’s then-CEO Stephen Scherr, who spearheaded the plan to go all in on EVs, was replaced by Gil West, former COO of GM’s Cruise autonomous unit and, prior to that, COO of Delta Air Lines.

"Fleet and direct operating costs weighed on this quarter's performance," Hertz CEO Gil West said in a statement. "We're tackling both issues — getting to the right supply of vehicles at an acceptable capital cost while at the same time driving productivity up and operating costs down."

Funny thing: i did rent EVs from them several times, but not at full price - they offered them as replacement for a small sedan I usually rent (and usually don't get - they always upgrade me to midsize or bigger). It sorta worked for me, but I found the whole Supercharger thing annoying (Herz doesn't include 120V/240V adapters with their EVs, so no charging at home). We also have cheap (albeit slow) chargers at work and it was better than sitting and fingerfucking my phone for 20-40 min on end at Superchargers.

https://youtube.com/shorts/0XRgYf8Rd4o?si=-l_sJaHJWhhOKUll

Only driven one Tesla and didn't notice this, but it's worth noting. If they're shit cars that's even worse. One short clip, but I don't know, wouldn't surprise me.

WookieMan says

https://youtube.com/shorts/0XRgYf8Rd4o?si=-l_sJaHJWhhOKUll

Only driven one Tesla and didn't notice this, but it's worth noting. If they're shit cars that's even worse. One short clip, but I don't know, wouldn't surprise me.

The seasick passengers is on the driver. My wife used to do this annoying "speed up - slow down - speed up" schtick. With aggressive regen it could be more pronounced than with the engine braking, but it's still on the driver.

The build quality is definitely not super: one of the Teslas I rented had what seemed to be a loose nut rolling under the floor from one side to another in every turn.

Ford’s electric vehicle unit reported that losses soared in the first quarter to $1.3 billion, or $132,000 for each of the 10,000 vehicles it sold in the first three months of the year, helping to drag down earnings for the company overall.

Ford, like most automakers, has announced plans to shift from traditional gas-powered vehicles to EVs in the coming years. But it is the only traditional automaker to break out results of its retail EV sales. And the results it reported Wednesday show another sign of the profit pressures on the EV business at Ford and other automakers.

The EV unit, which Ford calls Model E, sold 10,000 vehicles in the quarter, down 20% from the number it sold a year earlier. And its revenue plunged 84% to about $100 million, which Ford attributed mostly to price cuts for EVs across the industry. That resulted in the $1.3 billion loss before interest and taxes (EBIT), and the massive per-vehicle loss in the Model E unit.

RWSGFY says

The build quality is definitely not super: one of the Teslas I rented had what seemed to be a loose nut rolling under the floor from one side to another in every turn.

Not your empty beer bottle?

RWSGFY says

Ford’s electric vehicle unit reported that losses soared in the first quarter to $1.3 billion,

Odd that it did not affect Ford stock.

HeadSet says

RWSGFY says

The build quality is definitely not super: one of the Teslas I rented had what seemed to be a loose nut rolling under the floor from one side to another in every turn.

Not your empty beer bottle?

I only drink beer from cans while driving. Besides, how would it get UNDER the floor?

HeadSet says

RWSGFY says

Ford’s electric vehicle unit reported that losses soared in the first quarter to $1.3 billion,

Odd that it did not affect Ford stock.

It did. But not dramatically, because the EV losses were offset by ICE profits.

RWSGFY says

I only drink beer from cans while driving. Besides, how would it get UNDER the floor?

Run over a drunk?

RWSGFY says

I only drink beer from cans while driving.

Good idea. Opening a beer bottle with your teeth cause tooth loss if you hit a pothole.

HeadSet says

RWSGFY says

I only drink beer from cans while driving.

Good idea. Opening a beer bottle with your teeth cause tooth loss if you hit a pothole.

It's very nice of you to assume I even have teeth. Thanks!

HeadSet says

RWSGFY says

I only drink beer from cans while driving. Besides, how would it get UNDER the floor?

Run over a drunk?

Many times, but the same question arises: how does the bottle get above the battery (and under the floor).

Right now Subaru does $241 per month, no money down, no security deposit 3 yr lease on Solterra EV. There is no way they are not losing money on this deal.

And Hyundai offers $239 per month, no down, no sec deposit, 24 months, 12K miles per year lease on Ionic 6.

This is on supposedly $46K car.

RWSGFY says

Many times, but the same question arises: how does the bottle get above the battery (and under the floor).

Drunk Mechanic.

RWSGFY says

And Hyundai offers $239 per month, no down, no sec deposit, 24 months, 12K miles per year lease on Ionic 6.

This is on supposedly $46K car.

I'm guessing they get government subsidies on the build/parts AND the sale.

Either way EV's don't make sense long term. My cheap Lipo batter on my golf cart was $1,300. I can physically flip the cart on its side if I want. Now toss a heavy battery in a 2klbs+ vehicle that needs to go 200 miles or so. That's a $10k battery at minimum. The warranty is going to start eating profits when they need to replace batteries.

The Tesla plant in Fremont is about 2000 feet from the Hayward Fault, considered by geologists as the most dangerous fault in the U.S. and the most likely major fault for the Next Big One.

Toyota bz4x in a RWD form can now be leased for $229 per month, $0 down, $0 security deposit for 36 months with 12K miles allowance.

RWSGFY says

Toyota bz4x in a RWD form can now be leased for $229 per month, $0 down, $0 security deposit for 36 months with 12K miles allowance.

May get one for my daughter. Why not when they are that cheap? She only drives local.

HeadSet says

RWSGFY says

Toyota bz4x in a RWD form can now be leased for $229 per month, $0 down, $0 security deposit for 36 months with 12K miles allowance.

May get one for my daughter. Why not when they are that cheap? She only drives local.

The problem I see with Tesla is a market saturation thing. Certain people, like me, will NEVER buy an EV. Even once we're empty nesters in about 10 years. We have the fuel and oil network in place. We don't have the electric capacity to get to a certain level without unlocking nuclear to go ape shit on power production. Hybrids are and have been the answer.

My mom is currently on her way to my house. 90 mile range roughly on electric to get to my house. When she goes back home she either has gas in the tank or can top off with a quick 3 minute fuel up. She lives a touch over an hour away. If we had hills, no chance she'd make it back if she had a Tesla round trip. So even for a widow a model 3 wouldn't work and is more expensive than the RAV 4 that she currently has.

I don't do individual stocks generally. Contemplating shorting. The ugly cyber truck will be a flash in the pan for the moment, but 2-5 year outlook in my opinion is awful if the batteries actually last 10 years. Who is going to buy it? You can get cheaper cars with better utility. Most people are not that into speed and car shit. They just want what is cheapest for the utility they'll use it for.

0-60 times don't matter to me. I know how to drive and NOT get pulled over for driving recklessly.

RWSGFY says

12K miles allowance.

Per year?

RWSGFY says

I only drink beer from cans while driving. Besides, how would it get UNDER the floor?

My great grandfather cut a hole in the bottom of the floor of his truck so he could dump beer cans/bottles if he got pulled over. Apparently back in the day Iowans worked their butts off during the growing / harvest season and they sat around drinking their asses off in the winter time.

WookieMan says

if the batteries actually last 10 years. Who is going to buy it?

Haven't plenty of people already bought knowing in 10 years the battery is going to need to be replaced or the vehicle junked?

Booger says

Haven't plenty of people already bought knowing in 10 years the battery is going to need to be replaced or the vehicle junked?

I had an early Prius. Those batteries were freaking expensive. I traded the car before the battery needed replacement, but after the car was off warranty I always had a large accrual for the battery.

After about 100k miles I would ask the dealer service advisor for a quote for a replacement. I think it was about $5k for the battery (not including labor). I suppose that would be OK for another 100k miles, but the warranty for the replacement battery was for ONE YEAR.

If we take care of them, ICE Toyotas last freaking forever. The only major repair on my 2006 Tacoma, with 105k miles, was rebuilding the clutch master cylinder. That's it.

Everyone will be forced into the EV platform. Government is the worst pox on all of humanity.

B.A.C.A.H. says

I think it was about $5k for the battery (not including labor). I suppose that would be OK for another 100k miles,

$5k quote for battery + $600 labor! = $5.6k / 150k lifetime miles warranty = battery costs $.0373/mile

https://www.toyota.com/priusprime/faq/
A 13.6-kWh battery pack, an EPA-estimated all-electric driving range of up to 44 miles.
44 miles on full charge / 13.6 KHw capacity = 3.2 mi/KWh
Operating cost based on the price at different tiers around:
$0.48 /KWh / 3.2 mi = $.150/mi, for 150k*$.150=$22.5k + $5.6k=$28k
$0.42 /KWh / 3.2 mi = $.131/mi, for 150k*$.131=$19.6k + $5.6k=$25k
$0.35 /KWh / 3.2 mi = $.109/mi, for 150k*$.109=$16.4k + $5.6k=$22k

Just for fun comparison on electric drive alone with my other ICE vehicle which costs me >$4.75 / 31 mpg ~= $.153/mile
Typical operating cost for 150k miles * $0.153 ~= $23k + oil change maintenance (150k/5k)*$.1k = 3k = $26k

Of course elect and gas prices vary based on the year. But based on the the snapshot of the current prices, the overall costs of Prius are not too different from my ICE costs!

Blue says

$5k quote for battery + $600 labor! = $5.6k / 150k lifetime miles warranty = battery costs $.0373/mile

That's great for folks who are buying nowadays. But the warranties were not as generous on the 2001 Prius.

I think the original purchase battery warranty on my 2001 Prius was 5 years with some miles. After the five years I began an accrual for a replacement. I don't remember how many miles they had on the battery warranty but I think it was less than 100k.

The original battery was replaced in 2005 because of a recall. They replaced the battery with a new one but did not extend the warranty. The Prius got 45 - 50 mpg. I traded in that 2001 Prius at around 150,000 miles in 2017.

We also had a 2000 Camry that got about 32 mpg on the highway and 23-24 mpg in town. The only repair was replacing the radiator that began a slight leak along a seam, at around 125,000 miles. Kept that car till 2017, about 165,000 miles and the radiator was the only repair. I loved that Camry and was sorry to give it up.

Blue says

But based on the the snapshot of the current prices, the overall costs of Prius are not too different from my ICE costs!

Yup.

B.A.C.A.H. says

After about 100k miles I would ask the dealer service advisor for a quote for a replacement. I think it was about $5k for the battery (not including labor). I suppose that would be OK for another 100k miles, but the warranty for the replacement battery was for ONE YEAR.

Back in the day, a company called Discount Cab in AZ had a fleet of 200 Prius. The head manager told me that they routinely got 300,000 miles out of them on the original batteries.

Hybrids keep the battery conditioned by switching from gas to electric. For all of the panning I gave the Prius over its ugly design. They are a darn sight better than fully electric cars.

HeadSet says

Back in the day, a company called Discount Cab in AZ had a fleet of 200 Prius. The head manager told me that they routinely got 300,000 miles out of them on the original batteries.

They are perfect for cabs & Uber in that way. Designed to work best for short, stop & go urban trips. And cheap for the utility value.

Shit tube, but came across this gem this morning. https://youtu.be/HIs8zudJFzg?si=zM5NIP_KGyN-GSvH

The Cyber Truck is and will be a dud after this initial hype. Long watch, but TL:DR or watch, it can't even get 100 miles towing with a trailer that isn't insanely big. No pull through chargers so you have to unhitch and charge for 40-60 minutes to get another 85 or so miles. You kind of buy a truck to tow on trips or for work.

Everyone needs a break driving long distances, but every 85 miles is a joke and do an hour of work/waiting to charge. There's parts of the country you won't find a gas station on that stretch of road, let alone a super charger. It's a daily driver with no utility at $100k. Like all Teslas. Until Musk comes up with a full sized SUV I don't see much growth. Millennials are having kids now and sedans ain't gonna work, nor a truck that can't do what it's supposed to do.

WookieMan says

it can't even get 100 miles towing with a trailer that isn't insanely big.

I bet someone puts some extra batteries in the truck! This guy drove 1800 miles in a Tesla without stopping to charge:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hHhf223jGIE

In particular the part where he runs an onboard loud generator overnight in the parking lot of his hotel while he sleeps is hilarious. It runs all day too while he's driving.

just_passing_through says

I bet someone puts some extra batteries in the truck!

That I would think is dangerous.

I've worked on high powered EV charging systems. I had to watch a safety video in which I had to see several people killed through their carelessness. I'm an EE, but I work almost entirely in software, but I wouldn't fuck around with the systems. A short is an uncontrollable release of energy, and it doesn't matter if you deprive it of oxygen, it will "burn" apparently, it's just a release of energy.

EV's are just a bad idea in general. They are super heavy cars, they cut through road barriers like butter, they are NOT road safe, several other problems, but you don't ever have to go to a gas station. That's the only advantage.

richwicks says

but you don't ever have to go to a gas station. That's the only advantage.

Just a charging station for 30 minutes to get 85 miles and have to unhook your trailer to access the charger... wasting at least 60 minutes. Wave of the future. Lol. No non-gay is going to buy this truck. I tow weekly for the most part. It's literally unusable besides being a fag magnet with no actual utility.

None of these EV trucks can get 100 miles with an average trailer. What the fuck was the point in buying it? You don't buy a truck to look like a gay. Elon fucked up bigly on this one the more I research it. This is a flash in the pan type thing. He'll sell them to the gays, but it won't be profitable long term.

I laughed at the guy as he drove past me…well, I laughed at his wife in the passenger seat actually.

What a stupid assed vehicle.

WookieMan says

Just a charging station for 30 minutes to get 85 miles and have to unhook your trailer to access the charger... wasting at least 60 minutes. Wave of the future. Lol. No non-gay is going to buy this truck. I tow weekly for the most part. It's literally unusable besides being a fag magnet with no actual utility.

I'm not defending this vehicle. Most people that own trucks where I live, don't need them.

I think EVs are a disaster, and I'm probably North America's authority on DIN and 15118 DC fast charging standards. I've worked on this shit, I know it innately, and I left it in disgust. I'm probably the only asshole that knows how EXI encoding works, including the stupid asshole "architects" that mandated it as a standard. I spent 2 years going through all the bugs of the actual "example implementation" and completely reversed engineered it because the RFI was bullshit that didn't explain it. In fact the RFI was so fucking wrong, that their example was incorrect, I decoded it and implemented it using their standard coding model that was released as Javascript - totally unusable in a real work environment, too slow. Total fucking garbage gets made as standards because everybody is too pussy to admit they have no idea how the fuck it works, and if they did understand it, they would certainly reject it. It's all fraud.

I are a enginerd. I look at these disasters of design, and wonder, what the fuck am I doing? I'm not solving a problem. I'm helping create one. Electric vehicles are not a solution, at least not yet. I know this is a boondoggle. Sure, we can make them, but it doesn't solve a problem. The problem exists because the governments have mandated "this is a problem", it's not an actual problem. CO2 is not destroying the planet, and even if it was, electric vehicles do NOTHING to solve this problem, if anything, they consume MORE fossil fuels.

Keep it stupid simple, or keep it simple, stupid - that's still my motto. Logic and thinking is tough enough without adding stupidity into the equation.

I can be a CTO, but I can't be a fraud, that's a limiting factor for me. I'm not stupid enough to lie through ignorance, and I'm not evil enough to lie intentionally. Imagine, competence is a limiting factor now. A doctor that properly recognized that the mRNA "vaccines" didn't work, or ventilators didn't work, or that possibly steroids or Ivermectin DID work, they got fired. That's my position. I still have a duty to all you fuckers to tell the truth, much to my detriment.

There is no reward for being right, but... I can't be wrong either. I mean, I can't lie, and if I determine everybody else is wrong, I will call them out on it, and the weight of the world drops down on me. There's no support for that! There's a thread here how our society won't survive incompetency, and I see it everywhere, and if I spot it too soon, oh, well, I'm not a team player in the fraud. "Oh, your company is all bullshit, this is why" "Shhhhhhh - we're making money from the government, shut the fuck up!". Hahahaha.

I just can't do the Asch Conformity test and agree. I can't. I'm in the 10%. I'm in that tiny percentage that if I see the longest line, no matter how many people say it's not the longest line, I still will because I don't trust any of you, I trust my own senses and ability. You'd think this would be a strength, it absolutely is not, even when I'm right, and sometimes I'm wrong as well. I'm right more than I am wrong. I was right about the Iraq War, the Afghanistan war, the Syrian war, the bombing of Libya, the Ukraine war, the Gaza war. The last two EVENTUALLY you will realize I'm correct about, after years of you shitting on me. There will be no apologies. There never are.

You might properly see this as rambling and far off subject, but I see an ENTIRE industry in a dead end, and it's obvious to me it is. I might as well talk to a brick wall as to try to convince people they are barking up the wrong tree. I just thought people didn't know, I just didn't realize propaganda reached this far and this wide. Even into science and technology it reaches. Independent thinkers are hated even when they are right, can save billions of wasted dollars, they are despised and I'm one of them.

I finally got my free 1 month trial of Tesla's "Full Self Driving" this past weekend.

I had some pretty high expectations going in - and they were greatly exceeded. I've been driving around all week running my normal errands and haven't had a single intervention for safety. Just a couple for navigation where it wasn't taking my preferred route. It drives so smooth and natural. It also accelerates very nicely and aggressively. My only complaint is that Biden's Commies running NHTSA forced Tesla nerf the FSD to come to complete stops at stop signs. Easy enough to push through with a tap on the gas.

From a busy Costco parking lot with cars and pedestrians everywhere, I just tell it to drive home and it figures its way out of the parking lot and drives me all the way home and parks in front of the house.

This shit is the real deal.

Can't wait to take it up to the LA office tomorrow. Will see if it can make it door to door without any interventions.