patrick.net

The gym I frequent now is full of elderly male boomers all day, but moreso in the very early morning hours. They are nice chatty fellas but it's clear to me they can't wait to leave the house early am ;)

cisTits says

AmericanKulak says

From above article.


FAP FAP FAP FAP

Yes, vacation locations. Unless a toxic derailment happened in downtown Sevierville, TN :)

cisTits says

AmericanKulak says

From above article.


FAP FAP FAP FAP

Yes, vacation locations. Unless a toxic derailment happened in downtown Sevierville, TN :)

What's the inventory? A massive drop in sales might mean no one is selling and inventory is low. Those that NEED to buy will pay. Anything under 4-6 months will likely result in price increases or at least stabilize it. Number of sales means dick as a metric if no one is selling and staying put. Especially during February. That's when you list and aren't closing until April/May.

People want new places/houses by the start of summer once school is out. Next somewhat busy season is pre-holiday. Close in September or October so you can show off your new place to family at Thanksgiving and Christmas. If May-September inventory spikes, then maybe the bears are right. I'm not seeing it here in IL at least. We've had our exodus already. I wouldn't like owning in CA now. Austin, Nashville, Denver have a downside. I don't think rural, small towns will lose much if anything in any downturn. Cities are run like shit and Chicagoans are moving 60 miles out by me whenever something is available to buy, which is rare.

Enjoy it while it lasts, since everybody over 60 will probably be eventually killed, anyway, except the elites. Inching towards SS and Medicare is when you become a serious collecting creditor of the system. Then, lots of cheap real estate for everybody (until you reach the magic age, too!)

In Dallas-Fort Worth, 10 years ago the median home price was roughly $160,000. It hit $405,000 this summer. Moreover, 10 years ago the median 30-year fixed mortgage rate was about 3.4%– now it's more than double. The narrative is that there's an enormous housing shortage and everyone should borrow as much money as possible to buy as big of a house as possible–hurry up and don't miss out! However, the popular narrative is likely wrong.

Back in 2012, if you could cough up a 20% down payment, the principal and interest on the median house would set you back $567 per month– making it a no-brainer to buy a house. Now, under these same assumptions, the principal and interest payment is $2,155 per month.

The median income is up about 29% over the past 10 years in Texas, and the typical mortgage payment is up 280%. That's a terrible deal! Especially when you consider that the property taxes have tripled as well in many cases. Yes, there are plenty of people here old enough to remember paying much higher mortgage rates in the past. The difference is that they were paying it on a low-priced home, not paying many multiples of their salary just to buy a basic starter home at 7% interest. Roughly 75% of buyers have to use financing, so housing is extremely sensitive to higher rates.

But everybody is moving to Texas, right? People are, but not as many as you'd think. Texas is historically fairly cheap because there aren't a lot of constraints to supply, unlike California (which Texas is always compared to). But housing units per capita are roughly at 2008 levels, while prices are far higher. This is a clear argument that the housing boom was not caused by an actual "housing shortage," but rather by the Fed and global central banks artificially suppressing interest rates for years as a sort of economic science experiment that led to ~10% inflation and economic chaos.

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4545249-with-7-percent-mortgage-rates-its-game-over-for-the-housing-bubble?hasComeFromMpArticle=false

AmericanKulak says

You can easily have kids without being married.

That's not having kids that's having an albatross around your neck.

You're forced to pay for the kids until they are 18, and if you were never married your chances of getting joint custody is nill.
But the State of Florida anyway, will force you to pay Child support until the kid is 18. After the kid grows up, it's a 50/50 chance that the mother didn't brainwash the kid into loathing you for being absentee and resent you for all of the times you pissed and moaned about having to support them growing up.

AmericanKulak says

That's women. Not men.

It's both of them, most of the time it's no secret the woman is getting tired of their shit. The man chose to keep late hours ignoring his wife, going on weekend excisions to Baja with Clambo even though he bragged about all of the hot ass down there.

And the non married schmucks that piss and moan about men that would rather stay home and do the right thing by his family. Are the biggest losers of all. They never got it, and never will get it. They think they have all of the friends they need. Until the money is gone, and their health fades, and they are in the hospital dying broke and alone. All of your good time buddies,(Might be dead and gone by then too) wont be there with you.

Or worse your good time buddies go and get married and leave you to party alone, after helping convince you that's a suckers life. And at an age you can't make new friends, or find a long term woman.

Yeah those men who do the right thing by their family what a bunch of schmucks.

I keep telling my kids that choosing a life partner is the single most important decision they will ever make. So be freaking meticulous about that shit! Don’t just get married because she’s hot or he’s tall and has a good job. Get married to the right person for you.
All my kids are good looking, so they should never feel like they should have to settle for a crazy hot chick. Get a sane hot chick instead, with a good work ethic and good with kids. That’s what you want in a wife. It’s what I held out for, and it’s been a decision I can live with. It’s nice having someone to count on, someone on my team with whom I can celebrate all our wins as they are wins for the team not just us as individuals. We can collaborate on raising the kids, do couples dates, and generally do life together.
That’s my favorite part of marriage. It’s not all about the ass.

Tenpoundbass says

You're forced to pay for the kids until they are 18, and if you were never married your chances of getting joint custody is nill.
But the State of Florida anyway, will force you to pay Child support until the kid is 18. After the kid grows up, it's a 50/50 chance that the mother didn't brainwash the kid into loathing you for being absentee and resent you for all of the times you pissed and moaned about having to support them growing up.

50/50 Parental Custody is the Florida State Standard for a father who establishes paternity and pays support.

The "Piss and Moan for support" really means "The Mom spent the child support on her hair and nails and clothes"

Tenpoundbass says

They think they have all of the friends they need. Until the money is gone, and their health fades, and they are in the hospital dying broke and alone. All of your good time buddies,(Might be dead and gone by then too) wont be there with you.

Grey Divorces are the fastest growing divorce segment, and it's almost entirely women divorcing men just prior to their retirement for max payout, and endemic among boomers.

"You wanna die alone?!"

https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2017/03/09/led-by-baby-boomers-divorce-rates-climb-for-americas-50-population/

It's both of them, most of the time it's no secret the woman is getting tired of their shit. The man chose to keep late hours ignoring his wife, going on weekend excisions to Baja with Clambo even though he bragged about all of the hot ass down there.

TPB, for thousands of years, marriage was considered a burden for the man and society softened the blow by giving married men deference, tax cuts, final authority over spending (since he had the primary responsibility, only fair he have the final say) etc.. In the past few decades, just like with Fags and Trans and Unwed Mothers, all of a sudden Marriage is this Wonderful Boon for Men and They Oughta Be Lucky(tm) to have a nagging wife who is "Helping them live longer"(tm).

The real old movies, the ones before the 1950s, some guy on a desert island paradise and then stranded women show up and he's like "oh, crap, there goes paradise". As I kid I was like "Why is this guy upset he's got 3 gals to bang." Old School guy was wise: He knew he had three permanent adolescents to provide for now.

For me, I'm getting off the plantation. "But massah so good and wise, you jus' down appreciate yous lives da longer than if yous went out a West'a"

Tenpoundbass is talking about a scary scenario which I hope not to suffer.
I can say that as I have gotten a little older and have stayed in shape and my net worth has increased, people are still friendly to me.
The people on the scuba diving boat are all generally much younger than I, yet they're very nice to me.
As far as advanced age, I'm going to have some money set aside for this eventuality.
My parents both had difficulties; I can attest that my siblings were not particularly interested in them in their time of need.
Since I was the "black sheep" and had no WIFE controlling my life, I could change my circumstances to help my parents out.
I think having a female partner is fine; but I see no reason to give her a legal advantage over me and a club to beat me with if I piss her off.

Edit: In Florida the females are also friendly and fun to be around. The place where they are a pain is Santa Cruz, California.

I think all of the selfish people who said.
"There's no way I'll bring a kid into this world."
Are part of the bigger problem. Just maybe, their kids may have been the ones to go on, and kick the shit out of all of the fuckers, that makes living so fucked up, people have this line of thinking. The majority of the kids born were born into ass kissing parents who looked at parenting as some social experiment about their feelz and the current thing in regards to rearing children. That lot got it so fucking wrong, what is missing is the jaded Fathers, who stuck around in spite of the situation. And took no shit from their kids or wife. For that Father was the best father of all, and raised kids that could see the world for what it is, instead of the way self help books describe.

What we rarely see with the generations under 50. I have never heard a nary one of them say.

"My Mama didn't raise no fool!"

Now what did Boomers and Gen-Xers mean by that? Surely they aren't suggesting their mother tutored them into being a Mensa society genius.
They simply meat they got their asses beat for all of the stupid shit they did, to the point they were wise enough to know and recognize danger, and precarious situations, that could legally imperil them or know a sour deal when they saw it.

The generations now, all they know is their parents thought they were a foot ball to pass back and forth and quarrel over. There is no imparted wisdom in those arrangements.

Never knock a couple trying hard not to raise a fool.

clambo says

Tenpoundbass is talking about a scary scenario which I hope not to suffer.

My buddy Pito in his last two weeks was having regrets. He was talking about a girl he should have married, and the house he almost bought. He lived hand to mouth like he was 16 all the way until the very end. He would shirk any responsibility adulting beyond owning a vehicle and working(Just enough to pay his bills and feed his head).

I really thought he was going to pull through, I didn't realize he was as sick as he was. I knew he was affected by the clot shot, but I suspected that if the Clot shot didn't kill him outright with a heart attack or stroke, then perhaps his body was going to repair and heal itself. In the end he died alone in the hospital, no friends and family by his side. Had he had an immediate family of wife and kids, then perhaps they would have clued me in on how serious it was, and that he code three times and I need to get down there and visit him.
I saw him just the day before he went into the hospital and died the next day. He said to me, "Well I guess this is it, if I don't see you any more it's been real" to which I said. "Man don't talk like that, is it really that bad Pito." He just smiled and said no I'll be OK. I didn't want to encourage him to die, so I didn't fawn over it much. I wasn't informed when he went to the hospital the next day. Even his room mate figured he was just going to the hospital for a few days, and be back out after a few days on an IV drip.

@clambo
Have you ever considered adopting? Having someone else to take care of gives you a reason to live and establishes meaning in life. You don’t have to be married to adopt. And it would offer you a solid connection to another person who’s going to be an adult by the time you’re truly old. It might just be the best thing you ever did.

AmericanKulak says

All those boomers whose median age is 66 in the next decade getting COPD, CHF, and broken hips unable to keep up and mow their .25-.5 acre, 3-4 bed/1.5-2.5 bed home.

All those boomers still married about to experience the Grey Divorce wave and having to sell to split equity, then having to survive on one half retirement.

Taking glee in peoples' misery - classy.

AmericanKulak says

...the most relaible stat in Social Science, Demographics. Just as inflation was caused by Boomers all entering the workforce, family formation, and peak earning years around the early 70s, so will the housing bust be driven by Boomers entering their 70s in the 2020s.

Maybe this is one reason the southern border is wide open.

Al_Sharpton_for_President says

Taking glee in peoples' misery - classy.

Lighten up, Francis. I'm just having dark humor and being salty about aging. No matter how Hip some Boomers are, age is coming for them as it will for me.

If you read my later posts, you can read between the lines and see I am PO'd about boomer dudes getting Finraped just before/at retirement.

At some point in time "No Fault" needs to be combined with "No Thing". Like after 20 years, if you leave without a cause, you leave without a payout.

Robert Sproul says

Maybe this is one reason the southern border is wide open.

Check from the government, check from a corporation paying for an employee, check from a private citizen.

As long as the check comes, the landlord is happy. Of all of them the latter is the most likely not to pay on time.

But a falling population means he has to offer more sq ft for the price, or lower his prices. It also means a smaller labor force with the same housing stock and thus higher demand for wages. And that don't make him happy, so he opens the gates.

Shaman says

I keep telling my kids that choosing a life partner is the single most important decision they will ever make. So be freaking meticulous about that shit! Don’t just get married because she’s hot or he’s tall and has a good job. Get married to the right person for you.

I would tell young guys insisting on engaging in the most mentally and fiscally risky decision they will ever make in their life (short of being drafted into a WW2 type situation) is to: Demand her Credit Report, mortgage the starter house in mom or dad's name before tying the knot, and spell out everything, like when and how the wife will become a SAHM if at all, and the distribution of assets in divorce, and definitely a prenup (which are tossed in Cali 50% of the time, but hey, do it anyway).

BTW, all this shit was normal for any person with any kind of assets and was insisted upon by their parents, and it's still a thing among old wealthy families

@Tenpoundbass is right - marriage used to be a family alliance. Alliances had clauses once enshrined by law (which have since WW2 radically changed) and by legal agreements in the early 20th and definitely the 19th going back centuries before that which judges almost always upheld to the letter. For example, before Family Courts existed and not that long ago, Divorces were handled by general Judges - County, City, State - like any other contract law between any kind of party.

It's now "Free Love" - which is the Free Love they were talking about from the late 19th, to the flappers in the 20s, until it became reality with the massive divorce law changes in the 1950s and 1960s. "Free Love" is not that traditional..

As for the new Family Law Courts, they are dominated by Lesbians and Feminists or Incompetents (but I repeat myself) too stupid and dangerous for the Bar to recommend them to oversee a "Real" Court, not even a Muni court that handles moving violations. Their sole job is to get the guy to pay as much as possible, for as long as possible within the law, so the State has as little exposure to paying welfare in as many cases as possible. They also work for Corporate Socialism, as 80% of consumer spending is female, and single fathers with custody raise the kids less expensively but the woman will soon be on welfare.

@Shaman
I think you make a good point.
I have a male friend who is much younger who was a neighbor in Jupiter, FL and he would probably be helpful when I am advanced in age.
However presently I'm with a girl in Mexico who is also younger than I am who wants to care for me if I stay with her.

Marriage in Mexico is interesting; you can choose "separate assets" as your form of marriage before you do the deed.
This is clever; you don't need a prenuptial agreement to protect yourself from financial ruin.

I'm considering marriage because I can decrease my 1040 taxes by 50% if I file "married filing jointly" and the female has no USA income.

Age changes are sometimes sudden; I was a gym rat and walked 10 hours per week and went to the beach and went scuba diving until I went on Medicare.
After one scuba dive in California walking back to the truck over sand with all my gear and weights on, I was fucked. My groin was killing me and months later I saw my X-Rays and the cause of the problem; arthritis.

Dysfunctional Families, that there's a load of bullshit the Godless Childless Loveless Commies coined to conn the American Nuclear family into believing that a Family with occasional disputes and discord, is somehow toxic and should be disbanded for the kid's sake. But then it turned out that it fucked those kids up to have their family structure ripped out from under them over a few petty words from Lesbian and Commie fag authors.

clambo says

My groin was killing me and months later I saw my X-Rays and the cause of the problem; arthritis.

Nah, it is because you weren't fully vaxxed. Seriously, be glad you stayed in shape, or it would have been sooner and worse.

Tenpoundbass says

Dysfunctional Families, that there's a load of bullshit the Godless Childless Loveless Commies coined to conn the American Nuclear family into believing that a Family with occasional disputes and discord, is somehow toxic and should be disbanded for the kid's sake. But then it turned out that it fucked those kids up to have their family structure ripped out from under them over a few petty words from Lesbian and Commie fag authors.

Yes, yet traditionalists need to be honest about how Grandpa Joe and certainly the Great+ Grandpas had to occasionally smack a wife's ass, could legally conceal money from wives, women needed permission to use husband's cards or cash, banks would not let wives access safety deposit boxes, etc.

"Shuddup, Margeret. Make me a sandwich. No more lace doillies. If you sneak into my desk and steal another $5, it's to the moon, Alice."

Now most of those wife management techniques are illegal/actionable and will put a man in jail or lose half his wealth. They were perfectly normal in Granddad's day. You don't need to go back that far to see it in Media as acceptable, and even starting a laugh track: The Honeymooners, or the McClintock movies (Donovan's Reef). In the lifetime of people living today.

Trads ignore the Fact of Historical Male Dominance in Marriage







(Note the women in this scene laughing as well - "Boy, she really pushed him too far and she's getting her comeuppance, hahaha")

This can't be ignored, since family/marriage is the cornerstone of society. Truthfully, female wilding is a top reason we are where we are. Nor is it all a "Side effect" of other things as Trads try to claim, it's actually a major Driving Thing. There's a reason all of civilization puts the women under the man's rubric, and it starts falling apart when they aren't.

Nor all husband's and men where abusive cads, there no shortage of fish monger wives,with a constant sour scorn. the true partnerships didn't make compelling stories. That's why we only think of the extremes.

Tenpoundbass says

Nor all husband's and men where abusive cads, there no shortage of fish monger wives,with a constant sour scorn. the true partnerships didn't make compelling stories. That's why we only think of the extremes.

Of course.

But there were means of reigning in female bad behavior by men, especially earlier in the marriage when they were young and the woman tried to dominate the man and he gave her some spankings now and again. Today, that's totally illegal.

Now we're utterly dependent on women being "Good" which, if you know girls and women, is a shit bet because All women/girls misbehave and Shit Test periodically. The reason they were better in the previous generations is because running a Shit Test too long had consequences from the man, and Men were regarded as Prizes for women not the other way around. Didn't need to be physical, he could simply take away her allowance for hair or fripperies.

When dating, men can also simply get up and leave as a shit test check.

When married with kids, men can't just get up and leave.

AmericanKulak says

There's a reason all of civilization puts the women under the man's rubric, and it starts falling apart when they aren't.

This is true. Women's minds are as different from men's minds as women's bodies are different from men's bodies.

Example: women have no inclination to defend borders because they know they will be taken care of, or at least not killed, no matter which men are in control. Men know that they will be killed or enslaved by invading men. For men, it is literally a matter of life and death to defend the border.

Patrick says

Example: women have no inclination to defend borders because they know they will be taken care of, or at least not killed, no matter which men are in control. Men know that they will be killed or enslaved by invading men. For men, it is literally a matter of life and death to defend the border.

Yes.

There's one caveat to this. Older women past their fertility know their sons and grandsons and husbands and brothers will be killed, which makes them more likely to want to stop invaders. They can't have THEIR offspring, with no chance of making more, exterminated.

Young women know they can start again with Bak Tok, even if their family and kids are killed, and have more. Also, Bak Tok is now proven a superior male for killing her husband defending the walls..

The marriage debate is almost comical; anyone who thinks clearly knows it almost always benefits the female and not the male.

I remember hearing about the social norms in the 1940s and 1950s.
Before contraception went beyond diaphrams and condoms and abortion was legal, there was huge social pressure to be married to get action.

Now it's all available everywhere.

Guys get more of certain attributes as they age which women like; I was recently told by a younger female that she liked my personality. Without listing the attributes, I am sure that some of them improved as I got older. Obviously if I were Brad Pitt she'd not worry about those, but on the other hand, my age isn't a detriment from her point of view because she was attracted more to my personality than the hair on my temples. This girl is not a broke loser, and she's not seeking cash from me.

Women get negative attributes as they age; they look worse of course, but they also sometimes are bitter and worried compared to the positive outlook of younger girls.

clambo says

The marriage debate is almost comical; anyone who thinks clearly knows it almost always benefits the female and not the male.

clambo says

Women get negative attributes as they age; they look worse of course, but they also sometimes are bitter and worried compared to the positive outlook of younger girls.

Younger girls don't have a positive outlook. An old dude chasing younger girls is the real sucker. There's a set up where the dude is just a patsy being played like a cheap kazoo.
Every young girl I knew growing up that had an Olderman that thought she was just crazy about him. Had a double life, when she left his house at 8 or 9 o'clock. She would go spend money and resources gleaned from Pops on her same age boyfriend. Sure there are exceptions to the rule but anyone that would bitch about being exploited by a wife in a marriage, then turn around and claim banging younger hot broads is less exploitative. Is a damn fool or blind.
I've never seen a hot younger girl court a broke dude over 50 that didn't have loads of money in the banks and had resources he was willing to spend on her every whim.

Tenpoundbass says

Younger girls don't have a positive outlook. An old dude chasing younger girls is the real sucker. There's a set up where the dude is just a patsy being played like a cheap kazoo.

Taking a 22 year old to Ruby Tuesday for a burger and beer, buy her some chotskies, and bang her. Maybe she gives the hoodie you brought her in the mall to her skinny ass weedhead gamer boyfriend who is sitting at home watching anime.

OR

Taking a 42 year old to a nice Italian Restaurant, spend 4x more, listen to her talk about her boring ass work drama, her cats, the vineyard wine sampling she did last week with her girlfriends who then stayed at the AirBNB, her ex husband she left when the kids were grown, taking half the $350k home equity yet she blew through it all in a year with nothing to show for it but "experiences" from taking a cruise to the Bahamas with her alcoholic wine aunt girlfriends and all-new furniture in her rented apartment. How she's a catch because she makes $52k/year at Mid State Office Supply as Senior Accounts Payable Clerk. She tells you how she intends to spend the rest of her life on stupid ass "Travelling" every last dollar of her income with nothing saved.

Then she gets heartburn and she's already getting into menopause and doesn't want to fuck, please drop her home or pay for her Uber.

It's really not hard for any guy to take out 20-30 year old chicks these days and get some pussy; whereas 35+ chicks keep adding to lists of what they "Demand" and they "Know their worth". And they aren't DTF unless they've got baby rabies and are working on entrapment.

The big myths:
Postmenopausal women like to fuck (they don't, although a few do get a boost in sex drive, that's because they exhibit less estrogen and more testosterone but that also makes them have more hair all over and develop masculine facial features)

Older women "know what they like" - and it's you spending money on them for nothing in return. No more "I don't know" as to what restaurant, but whatever restaurant it is, is going to be EXPENSIVE. No dinner, No little sea side redneck bar

Older women are "easier to get along with and more comfortable in their own skin" - the first is a line, and the second is "more comfortable talking about their IBS symptoms, and being less anxious about their celluloid ridden, wrinkly old eye bags with extra hair all over her body".

clambo says

Women get negative attributes as they age; they look worse of course, but they also sometimes are bitter and worried compared to the positive outlook of younger girls.

Yep.

Again, this 50 year old Finance chick starts off reasonable, tells everybody that "100" men she worked with explained they date younger because the women are easier to get along with not so much for beauty, then she demonstrates exactly why older men don't want her, proving that she like most of her peers has more baggage than Delta Airlines Lost and Found
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t2dmCPkfh3Y

It's natural, normal, legal, and ethical for proven accomplished men in middle age to get with fertile young women. It's repeated many, many times in the Bible. It was the norm until very recently, like this century. Half the married characters in Victorian novels is a 40-year old Man back from the Empire or Overseas marrying a 20-year old - hell, Watson from Sherlock Holmes, who was a stock character to play the Everyman interacting with Holmes.

The 1950s era trads point to is already two waves into Feminism. Real Trad is pre first wave, like before 1890, for thousands upon thousands of years.

Who's chasing girls?
A "broke dude over 50"=a loser, no girls want him.

What I see is that the girls in mid 40's are more clingy because they know they've got fewer opportunities left to them.

The younger one whom I may meet randomly (it's not typical; like lightning or a tornado) seem not to care about the future so much as having fun now.

Either way, I'm not worried; it's a liberating feeling when you actually don't care what happens in situations; lately I feel upset about current events but not about my relationships.

Tenpoundbass says

Nor all husband's and men where abusive cads, there no shortage of fish monger wives,with a constant sour scorn. the true partnerships didn't make compelling stories. That's why we only think of the extremes.

That's the thing.

A young guy coming home and seeing the lace doillies and $20 missing from his drawer would give his wife a spanking and HER parents would approve, and the neighbors would titter at her when they heard the gossip. "That's Betty for you. Let me tell you, young buck, you got your work cut out for ya, she's always had more Moxie than is good for a lady. We tried to raise her right and didn't spare the rod, but thank goodness she's not my problem anymore." - your father in law, 1949

Calling up the bank and telling them to not give any money to the wife and administering a spank on the buns was NOT considered cad behavior. Today, the first is impossible and the second would get you in the slammer and you'd be all but unemployable with that DV conviction for 5 slaps on her rump over your knee.

Cad behavior was being marginally employed with a drinking problem and beating your wife for a nothing. Not laying down the law as breadwinner.

AmericanKulak says

The big myths:
Postmenopausal women like to fuck (they don't)

Correct. For many it is painful. And they do not compensate by giving BJs.

AmericanKulak says

The collapse of Blackrock/investor owned SFHs,

another stock i'm tracking as far as housing market is Invitation Homes Inc

it is down 33% and is a company that buys homes and then rents them

also i track the home builder etf (ticker: ITB) which is down 19% only
.

ad says

AmericanKulak says

The collapse of Blackrock/investor owned SFHs,

another stock i'm tracking as far as housing market is Invitation Homes Inc

it is down 33% and is a company that buys homes and then rents them

also i track the home builder etf (ticker: ITB) which is down 19% only
.

Yeah, it's pretty crazy.

I'm stunned the DR Horton stock price has recovered so well.



They built a ton of housing in Central and Central East Coast Florida, and they are sitting on a ton of unsold houses and half empty lot developments.

AmericanKulak says

They built a ton of housing in Central and Central East Coast Florida, and they are sitting on a ton of unsold houses and half empty lot developments.

Good point, this excessive inventory will get absorbed as Florida is one of the fastest growing states. I suspect the 30 year mortgage rate will eventually settle between 5 and 5.5% within the next 6 to 9 months. 2023 is going to be a slow year.

I think the Establishment including Fed are wanting the Fed Funds rate to be decreased in 2024 to help Biden (or the Democrat nominee) in the Presidential election cycle.

It is being managed (or choreographed / orchestrated) that a recession will be declared in 2023 and a recovery will be announced by late summer 2024.

.

I too think interest rates will be decreased in time for the 2014 election.
I guess I have to just postpone my delusions of financial grandeur for a while longer.

BTW I wasn't calling anyone out in my posts, I was just over generalizing and painting with a broad stroke. Like I think most posts in this thread were also doing.

"It's siesta time."

ad says

Good point, this excessive inventory will get absorbed as Florida is one of the fastest growing states. I suspect the 30 year mortgage rate will eventually settle between 5 and 5.5% within the next 6 to 9 months. 2023 is going to be a slow year.

I think the Establishment including Fed are wanting the Fed Funds rate to be decreased in 2024 to help Biden (or the Democrat nominee) in the Presidential election cycle.

It is being managed (or choreographed / orchestrated) that a recession will be declared in 2023 and a recovery will be announced by late summer 2024.

Agreed on all counts.

One thing that makes me smile is that used house sellers are trying to get $350 for a 1979 3 bed/2 bath/carport with maybe 1400 sq ft. Meanwhile the home builders have 4 bed/2.5 baths, brand spanking new, 2 car garage going for $370 they're trying to dump.

.

Housing starts are below 1993 levels and clearly below 2007 levels :-/

It could be a 15 to 20 year cycle (from 2010 to 2025) whereas housing bottoms by 2025.

Look at how housing starts bottomed around 1990 and peaked at 2016.

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