patrick.net

AmericanKulak says

There's already a recession: Biden's Economic Council suddenly changed the definition

Okay 1st and 2nd quarters of 2022 had negative GDP growth, but GDP has recovered after that. But it could be shortlived as GDP can have two consecutive negative growth quarters from now until election day 2024.

I wonder if we are still in a bear market though since the S&P 500 is down about 11% from its all time high of 4818 set in December 2021. Recall it dropped about 33% around April 2020 and 21% in October 2022.
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ad says

Okay 1st and 2nd quarters of 2022 had negative GDP growth, but GDP has recovered after that.

It's pretty hard to believe anything the government says. Not saying it isn't true.

I give credit to Fox Business on this article today: https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/new-data-reveals-crash-not-since-great-depression-could-hit-2024

They report M2 money supply dropping rapidly while still prices remain high. They mention how money supply and prices both dropped precipitously during the Great Depression.

I hope we see CPI reported this month (for September 2023) at a monthly gain of less than 0.3% and an annual gain of less than 3.5%.

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Ahhhhh, those crazy kids at Credit Suisse blew something up. For those keeping track, a TBTF (too big to fail) bank failed. The depositors made it out without losses. Bond and stock holders...well not so much. Banksters think they will get government bailouts, but I'm gonna bet the next TBTF that goes is gonna get Nationalized. Could be that by trying to save the banks' depositors, that country's government could collapse.

TBTF banks don't really lend to each other nowadays (haven't since September 17, 2019). They cannot therefore count on funds from other banks. They are reliant on Central banks.

There is probably gonna be more bank crisis coming up. We could see rapid movements in currencies. There have been a lot of one way bets on a stronger dollar (with plenty of leverage on those trades). Everyone thinks they can exit their trades before other actors can.

There may be a re-pricing event coming.

Misc says

TBTF banks don't really lend to each other nowadays (haven't since September 17, 2019)

This isn't being discussed enough - the overnight lending facilities essentially froze up in fall of 2019 and then, COVID OMG!!! and the fed spigots were opened.

I talked about it, when it happened. Scamdemic was cover to prevent a collapse they couldn't control, and distract from the fact most 1% are pedophiles.

Here's a guy that is sorta knowledgeable, who sees problems coming up in the banking sector.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/the-whole-banking-sector-is-uninvestable-steve-eisman-of-big-short-fame-warns-about-mounting-challenges-for-financial-institutions-here-s-what-he-s-betting-on-instead/ar-AA1hV1BH?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=U531&cvid=e04f71507eb94568a9fc01d67f717067&ei=20

He simply sees decreased profitability, but his gut tells him to avoid the sector like the plague. Some people know the extent that the banks are simply lying on their quarterly financials. Who knows? Maybe someone will call them out on their fraud. If not this quarter, then definitely after they report 4th quarter earnings.

Misc says

Some people know the extent that the banks are simply lying on their quarterly financials

How does one know that every company is not lying on their earnings reports? No one is checking it, right? If someone/somebody is checking the numbers, how accurate are these checks? And the impacts of deliberately playing with numbers?

gabbar says

Misc says

Some people know the extent that the banks are simply lying on their quarterly financials

How does one know that every company is not lying on their earnings reports? No one is checking it, right? If someone/somebody is checking the numbers, how accurate are these checks? And the impacts of deliberately playing with numbers?

With banks there are dozens of regulators embedded in the banks themselves. With the TBTF there are hundreds embedded, The regulators don't really question the banks. They simply review the numbers provided. It takes a little work to get fraudulent numbers into the system.