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Banking Problems are Just Starting
2023 Mar 22, 12:52am 27,032 views 161 comments
by Misc follow (2)
Comments 1 - 18 of 161 Next » Last » Search these comments
1
clambo
2023 Mar 22, 7:13am
Possible silver lining; if they stop raising interest rates the stock market will like it.
2
Misc
2023 Mar 25, 4:54pm
Collapses start off slow and then kinda go all at once
Here's an update on junk bond. Note the increase in the defualt rate over a 2 week period.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/junk-bond-defaults-eclipse-past-two-years-in-3-months-as-wall-street-braces-for-credit-crunch/ar-AA192CJr?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=U531&cvid=2a23142a0da84c1abcd08be76fe781f3&ei=26
There's also about $6 trillion corporate debt just one step above junk. Everyone knows it's a systemic risk with the corporations just playing games with the ratings agencies (once the downgrades happen it will be quite quick).
Here's an update on junk bond. Note the increase in the defualt rate over a 2 week period.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/junk-bond-defaults-eclipse-past-two-years-in-3-months-as-wall-street-braces-for-credit-crunch/ar-AA192CJr?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=U531&cvid=2a23142a0da84c1abcd08be76fe781f3&ei=26
There's also about $6 trillion corporate debt just one step above junk. Everyone knows it's a systemic risk with the corporations just playing games with the ratings agencies (once the downgrades happen it will be quite quick).
3
AD
2023 Mar 25, 11:51pm
AD
2023 Mar 25, 11:51pm
Misc says
Been keeping an eye on one of the big ETF's for junk (or high yield) bonds. Notice the big drop off back during the Great Recession.
.
.
Here's an update on junk bond. Note the increase in the defualt rate over a 2 week period.
Been keeping an eye on one of the big ETF's for junk (or high yield) bonds. Notice the big drop off back during the Great Recession.
.
.
5
RWSGFY
2023 Mar 27, 10:41pm
RWSGFY
2023 Mar 27, 10:41pm
Patrick says
This is precisely how the coveted "no FDIC" scenario looks like. What's so good about it?
This is precisely how the coveted "no FDIC" scenario looks like. What's so good about it?
6
gabbar
2023 Mar 28, 4:27am
gabbar
2023 Mar 28, 4:27am
Misc says
Confession: I do keep a couple of dollars hidden my mattress. Is there anything right or wrong with this?
What we've seen so far in problems with the banks is those that purchased long term bonds that went down in value as interest rates went up.
Some mainstream economist crunched the figures and came up with a $620 billion dollar hit to the banks balance sheets if these were marked to market. That is if they needed to be sold.
We haven't even gotten to the fun part yet. That's when borrowers start to not pay back their loans because they ran out of money they could borrow on their credit lines. Credit spreads are widening especially for junk bonds. They are now over a 5% spread to treasuries. That means companies are borrowing at about a rate of 8-9%. Companies trying to roll-over their outstanding debt are gonna find that they just can't pencil in anything except for losses at these new rates. Credit is simply going to dry up for a large swath of corporations.
Good luck to all with your investments.
https://www.axios.com/2023/03/21/high-yield-bond-spr...
Confession: I do keep a couple of dollars hidden my mattress. Is there anything right or wrong with this?
7
GNL
2023 Mar 28, 5:00am
GNL
2023 Mar 28, 5:00am
gabbar says
It depends on your reason for doing it.
Confession: I do keep a couple of dollars hidden my mattress. Is there anything right or wrong with this?
It depends on your reason for doing it.
8
gabbar
2023 Mar 28, 6:22am
gabbar
2023 Mar 28, 6:22am
GNL says
I don't trust banks, so I figured keeping some in the mattress won't harm anyone.
gabbar says
Confession: I do keep a couple of dollars hidden my mattress. Is there anything right or wrong with this?
It depends on your reason for doing it.
I don't trust banks, so I figured keeping some in the mattress won't harm anyone.
9
GNL
2023 Mar 28, 10:42am
GNL
2023 Mar 28, 10:42am
gabbar says
Stacking PMs under your mattress might be a better option than cash.
GNL says
gabbar says
Confession: I do keep a couple of dollars hidden my mattress. Is there anything right or wrong with this?
It depends on your reason for doing it.
I don't trust banks, so I figured keeping some in the mattress won't harm anyone.
Stacking PMs under your mattress might be a better option than cash.
10
HeadSet
2023 Mar 28, 2:17pm
HeadSet
2023 Mar 28, 2:17pm
GNL says
More convenient to pay hookers.
gabbar says
Confession: I do keep a couple of dollars hidden my mattress. Is there anything right or wrong with this?
It depends on your reason for doing it.
More convenient to pay hookers.
11
ElYorsh
2023 Mar 28, 9:23pm
The stock market and the economy in general feels like the movie Ocean's 13. The part where they are making the hotel shake withe the "one that dug from the French side"
12
Misc
2023 Mar 29, 5:29pm
The 2 banks that went down took out a hit on the FDIC of about $22.5 billion. The majority of the losses were for amounts over the $250k per account. The fund had $128 billion in assets at the end of last year. The fund was already below statutory limits. The fund only charges fees on the accounts for up to the $250k. The FDIC is wondering how much extra to charge and who to charge for the shortage.
14
fdhfoiehfeoi
2023 May 8, 1:30pm
fdhfoiehfeoi
2023 May 8, 1:30pm
RWSGFY says
FDIC exists to bail out the banks, not the users. Real insurance would be privatized, and would cost more the more leveraged the bank. Under FDIC, banks are incentivized to take as much risk as possible, because the Fed guarantees their bailout.
No FDIC = real insurance = no zombie banks = no bailouts.
Yet another victim of central banking propaganda...
This is precisely how the coveted "no FDIC" scenario looks like. What's so good about it?
FDIC exists to bail out the banks, not the users. Real insurance would be privatized, and would cost more the more leveraged the bank. Under FDIC, banks are incentivized to take as much risk as possible, because the Fed guarantees their bailout.
No FDIC = real insurance = no zombie banks = no bailouts.
Yet another victim of central banking propaganda...
15
GNL
2023 May 8, 1:41pm
GNL
2023 May 8, 1:41pm
NuttBoxer says
Makes perfect sense. It's the banks, financial sector and corporations that own the world. Prove me wrong.
RWSGFY says
This is precisely how the coveted "no FDIC" scenario looks like. What's so good about it?
FDIC exists to bail out the banks, not the users. Real insurance would be privatized, and would cost more the more leveraged the bank. Under FDIC, banks are incentivized to take as much risk as possible, because the Fed guarantees their bailout.
No FDIC = real insurance = no zombie banks = no bailouts.
Yet another victim of central banking propaganda...
Makes perfect sense. It's the banks, financial sector and corporations that own the world. Prove me wrong.
16
Booger
2023 May 8, 3:12pm
Booger
2023 May 8, 3:12pm
Misc says
Which will affect housing prices at some point.
Credit is simply going to dry up for a large swath of corporations.
Which will affect housing prices at some point.
Comments 1 - 18 of 161 Next » Last » Search these comments
Some mainstream economist crunched the figures and came up with a $620 billion dollar hit to the banks balance sheets if these were marked to market. That is if they needed to be sold.
We haven't even gotten to the fun part yet. That's when borrowers start to not pay back their loans because they ran out of money they could borrow on their credit lines. Credit spreads are widening especially for junk bonds. They are now over a 5% spread to treasuries. That means companies are borrowing at about a rate of 8-9%. Companies trying to roll-over their outstanding debt are gonna find that they just can't pencil in anything except for losses at these new rates. Credit is simply going to dry up for a large swath of corporations.
Good luck to all with your investments.
https://www.axios.com/2023/03/21/high-yield-bond-spreads-show-increasing-recession-jitters