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My father saved a combined $12,000 per year in income and property taxes by moving to Florida around 2012.

The Florida real estate trend will continue as those who 1. have money 2. can do arithmatic move away from states like New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, etc.

Around North Palm Beach County I have seen numerous residential projects in just a few years, with thousands of units.

An example is Nautilus 2020, another one nearby is Ritz Carlton Residences; in Jupiter Azure and Alton, Caretta under construction in Juno Beach.

Locals will not be buying the new ones, nor Azure; some locals and young transplants are in Alton.

clambo says

My father saved a combined $12,000 per year in income and property taxes by moving to Florida around 2012.

The Florida real estate trend will continue as those who 1. have money 2. can do arithmatic move away from states like New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, etc.

Around North Palm Beach County I have seen numerous residential projects in just a few years, with thousands of units.

An example is Nautilus 2020, another one nearby is Ritz Carlton Residences; in Jupiter Azure and Alton, Caretta under construction in Juno Beach.

Locals will not be buying the new ones, nor Azure; some locals and young transplants are in Alton.

That is true, but it makes real estate in places like Connecticut cheaper, where nice Waterfront mansions have slipped below $2MM over the years of the business and people exodus from the state.

mell says

That is true, but it makes real estate in places like Connecticut cheaper, where nice Waterfront mansions have slipped below $2MM over the years of the business and people exodus from the state.

just like housing is "cheap" in the high income, property and sales tax shitholes like Illinois

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in Florida, housing is making more people more "house poor" because of increase in property insurance and HOA fees

but just as in Nassau County, New York (Long Island), housing prices will go down if property tax goes up a lot more as the pricing point accounts for the home ownership costs.

I had to make an adjustment to my property insurance (HO-3) for our 3 bedrm, 2.5 bath, 2 car garage townhome about 2 miles from the beach of Florida panhandle, whereas the deductible was increased from $1000 to $2500 so my annual property insurance premium is $1900, and not $2300 for a replacement value of $250,000.

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AD says

mell says

That is true, but it makes real estate in places like Connecticut cheaper, where nice Waterfront mansions have slipped below $2MM over the years of the business and people exodus from the state.

just like housing is "cheap" in the high income, property and sales tax shitholes like Illinois

.

Relatively, yeah. Only CA is perma expensive so far. $800k gets you a nicely upkept 3-4 bedroom house in the IL burbs, in CA a 2 bedroom starter shack in need of renovation.

mell says

Relatively, yeah. Only CA is perma expensive so far. $800k gets you a nicely upkept 3-4 bedroom house in the IL burbs, in CA a 2 bedroom starter shack in need of renovation.

that cause of the weather, beach, mountains, and culture there ... I'll admit California is still attractive as you can go to hike the mountains within a 2 hour drive or got to Catalina Island and it has a lot of cultural appeal

let alone it is a major job center as far as tech jobs, Hollywood, etc

whereas Illinois is hemorrhaging jobs

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AD says

whereas Illinois is hemorrhaging jobs

No. There's plenty of jobs. Maybe Chicago. The rest of the state is fine. Has been for a couple years. We already had our exodus. I don't like our governor, but things are much better here. Still have the pension debt issues, but housing is fine. It's actually doing well. mell says

Relatively, yeah. Only CA is perma expensive so far. $800k gets you a nicely upkept 3-4 bedroom house in the IL burbs, in CA a 2 bedroom starter shack in need of renovation.

Way cheaper than $800k. $400k gets you a new home here. Sure you can spend more in uppity suburbs, but the schools are shitty even though they say they're good. There are areas by me that a 3/2.1 is going for $250-300k brand new. Not a shitty neighborhood either.

Coastal areas just pay more for homes. When the buyers dry up, the prices will crater and they will. CA is unique with foreign buyers so that's a hard market to predict. FL is at the end of the covid and boomer buzz and ran out of booze in my opinion. I don't think prices will do well. I'm usually looking at vacations and not housing prices, so I could be wrong.

The housing collapse is going to happen a couple of months or so after the rate first cut.

That's when the sellers won't see a sudden onslaught of buyers they're expecting, and realize they need to cut prices deeper.

WookieMan says

FL is at the end of the covid and boomer buzz and ran out of booze in my opinion. I don't think prices will do well.

A 3 bedroom , 2.5 bath, 2 car garage townhome in my neighborhood in Panama City Beach sold for $299,000 two months ago when the 30 yr mortgage rate was at least 7%. It could have sold for at most $335,000 back in early 2022 when the 30 yr mortgage rate was 3%.

I think a townhome like this will bottom around 80% of the peak price, so around $268,000 by spring 2026.

This is based on 30 yr mortgage rate of around 5.5% and that price is at an affordability level similar to with the 3% rate in early 2022.

The same townhome sold for $187,000 in 2016 so that means around a 4% annual appreciation from 2016 to 2026.

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What I hope is household income continues to increase in the Florida panhandle while housing costs (mortgage or rent as well as property insurance) remain flat for the next two years.

Household income in Panama City Beach increased about 20% since early 2022 to present day, while a townhome sells for about 10% less than it did in early 2022 and rent seems to be at summer 2021 price level.

I was able to keep my property insurance (HO 3) premium the same at $1900 for 2025 for our townhome about 2 miles from the beach by increasing the deductible from $1000 to $2500 for a replacement value of around $275,000.

My wife & I knew a lady that was a long time former Florida resident. She was a very sharp business lady. While discussing a possible move to Florida with her, she emphatically told us "don't ever buy real estate in Florida." She went on to describe specific examples of the "notoriously shoddy construction practices," along with her assertion that "most of the housing in Florida is built upon swamp land." We never made the move and I'm glad we didn't.

Regarding the collapse of the Champlain Tower South in Surfside, it often takes time for shoddy construction practices to show up, but eventually they do. I wouldn't be the slightest bit surprised see more of this down the road, and that too will have a major impact on Florida real estate prices in the future.

Hell, since the 1920's Florida real estate has been a scam - over a century. Are we all surprised?

https://nypost.com/2025/01/13/real-estate/homes-are-piling-up-on-the-market-in-florida-there-are-2-big-reasons-why/

Homes are piling up on the market in Florida — there are 2 big reasons why

I'd love it if people listened to me at some point.

Both Florida and Texas led the way in new construction during the pandemic, attempting to satisfy increasing demand from out-of-staters flocking to their warmer shores.

Home Builders Weekly, which tracks new-construction projects in Florida, reported that in 2024, there was a 10% year-over-year increase in new-construction permits—with Northeast Florida seeing a 25% increase year over year.

Zillow
Zestimate®

$505,900

Also Zillow
Estimated sales range

$460,000 - $551,000

But finally Zillow
Estimated net proceeds

$370,505

Meanwhile I tell every picklehead Rent seeking baller that calls me, the house is not for sale, but it would take a million dollars to get me to think about moving. To which one moron asked, "Well has the house been recently updated?" To which I informed her, "You don't get the homework assignment" then hung up.