patrick.net

AD says

mell says

That is true, but it makes real estate in places like Connecticut cheaper, where nice Waterfront mansions have slipped below $2MM over the years of the business and people exodus from the state.

just like housing is "cheap" in the high income, property and sales tax shitholes like Illinois

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Relatively, yeah. Only CA is perma expensive so far. $800k gets you a nicely upkept 3-4 bedroom house in the IL burbs, in CA a 2 bedroom starter shack in need of renovation.

mell says

Relatively, yeah. Only CA is perma expensive so far. $800k gets you a nicely upkept 3-4 bedroom house in the IL burbs, in CA a 2 bedroom starter shack in need of renovation.

that cause of the weather, beach, mountains, and culture there ... I'll admit California is still attractive as you can go to hike the mountains within a 2 hour drive or got to Catalina Island and it has a lot of cultural appeal

let alone it is a major job center as far as tech jobs, Hollywood, etc

whereas Illinois is hemorrhaging jobs

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AD says

whereas Illinois is hemorrhaging jobs

No. There's plenty of jobs. Maybe Chicago. The rest of the state is fine. Has been for a couple years. We already had our exodus. I don't like our governor, but things are much better here. Still have the pension debt issues, but housing is fine. It's actually doing well. mell says

Relatively, yeah. Only CA is perma expensive so far. $800k gets you a nicely upkept 3-4 bedroom house in the IL burbs, in CA a 2 bedroom starter shack in need of renovation.

Way cheaper than $800k. $400k gets you a new home here. Sure you can spend more in uppity suburbs, but the schools are shitty even though they say they're good. There are areas by me that a 3/2.1 is going for $250-300k brand new. Not a shitty neighborhood either.

Coastal areas just pay more for homes. When the buyers dry up, the prices will crater and they will. CA is unique with foreign buyers so that's a hard market to predict. FL is at the end of the covid and boomer buzz and ran out of booze in my opinion. I don't think prices will do well. I'm usually looking at vacations and not housing prices, so I could be wrong.

The housing collapse is going to happen a couple of months or so after the rate first cut.

That's when the sellers won't see a sudden onslaught of buyers they're expecting, and realize they need to cut prices deeper.

WookieMan says

FL is at the end of the covid and boomer buzz and ran out of booze in my opinion. I don't think prices will do well.

A 3 bedroom , 2.5 bath, 2 car garage townhome in my neighborhood in Panama City Beach sold for $299,000 two months ago when the 30 yr mortgage rate was at least 7%. It could have sold for at most $335,000 back in early 2022 when the 30 yr mortgage rate was 3%.

I think a townhome like this will bottom around 80% of the peak price, so around $268,000 by spring 2026.

This is based on 30 yr mortgage rate of around 5.5% and that price is at an affordability level similar to with the 3% rate in early 2022.

The same townhome sold for $187,000 in 2016 so that means around a 4% annual appreciation from 2016 to 2026.

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What I hope is household income continues to increase in the Florida panhandle while housing costs (mortgage or rent as well as property insurance) remain flat for the next two years.

Household income in Panama City Beach increased about 20% since early 2022 to present day, while a townhome sells for about 10% less than it did in early 2022 and rent seems to be at summer 2021 price level.

I was able to keep my property insurance (HO 3) premium the same at $1900 for 2025 for our townhome about 2 miles from the beach by increasing the deductible from $1000 to $2500 for a replacement value of around $275,000.

My wife & I knew a lady that was a long time former Florida resident. She was a very sharp business lady. While discussing a possible move to Florida with her, she emphatically told us "don't ever buy real estate in Florida." She went on to describe specific examples of the "notoriously shoddy construction practices," along with her assertion that "most of the housing in Florida is built upon swamp land." We never made the move and I'm glad we didn't.

Regarding the collapse of the Champlain Tower South in Surfside, it often takes time for shoddy construction practices to show up, but eventually they do. I wouldn't be the slightest bit surprised see more of this down the road, and that too will have a major impact on Florida real estate prices in the future.

Hell, since the 1920's Florida real estate has been a scam - over a century. Are we all surprised?

https://nypost.com/2025/01/13/real-estate/homes-are-piling-up-on-the-market-in-florida-there-are-2-big-reasons-why/

Homes are piling up on the market in Florida — there are 2 big reasons why

I'd love it if people listened to me at some point.

Both Florida and Texas led the way in new construction during the pandemic, attempting to satisfy increasing demand from out-of-staters flocking to their warmer shores.

Home Builders Weekly, which tracks new-construction projects in Florida, reported that in 2024, there was a 10% year-over-year increase in new-construction permits—with Northeast Florida seeing a 25% increase year over year.

Zillow
Zestimate®

$505,900

Also Zillow
Estimated sales range

$460,000 - $551,000

But finally Zillow
Estimated net proceeds

$370,505

Meanwhile I tell every picklehead Rent seeking baller that calls me, the house is not for sale, but it would take a million dollars to get me to think about moving. To which one moron asked, "Well has the house been recently updated?" To which I informed her, "You don't get the homework assignment" then hung up.

AmericanKulak says

The housing collapse is going to happen a couple of months or so after the rate first cut.

That's when the sellers won't see a sudden onslaught of buyers they're expecting, and realize they need to cut prices deeper.

Ahem.

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Florida ranks very high for K-12 public education, and higher than California.

Yes Florida is more of a roller coaster economy for residential real estate compared to California, but its still a great state. This makes it an attractive state for those looking to wanting to move from their current state.

https://www.usnews.com/news/best-states/rankings/education/prek-12

https://www.usnews.com/news/best-states/rankings-index

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zzyzzx says

Months of inventory is the better metric. All those houses could sell and stay at that level and prices wouldn't move. If you have 12 months inventory that's a problem. 6 months is a roughly stable market. It's how fast the inventory moves.

Also that's only one metro. Really doesn't mean much big picture. Tampa area is Boomer centric. They're dying. Kids sell the house. Not a big shocker for FL. Visited plenty of times, but wouldn't live there. The beach areas are chaos, no parking and yes, the beaches suck there.

AD says

Florida ranks very high for K-12 public education, and higher than California.

Florida was close to bottom for many decades. The past decade or so of Ed Reform and Higher Standards worked magic.

AmericanKulak says

AD says

Florida ranks very high for K-12 public education, and higher than California.

Florida was close to bottom for many decades. The past decade or so of Ed Reform and Higher Standards worked magic.

I don't see it in the areas I go in FL, but they're tourist areas, so kids could be from out of state. Ultimately schools are local and who they hire and the board.

I've seen dumb ass kids everywhere though. Ultimately younger dads have gotten too passive. I don't put up with shit. I'll get after other people's kids if they're at my house. I will pop off and it's usually only one time and then it become thank you and sorry Mr John Doe. I'm embarrassed by the parents around my age. I should be chewing the adults out and not parenting for them.

Your fifteen minute city dream apartment in Miami.

AmericanKulak says

The housing collapse is going to happen a couple of months or so after the rate first cut.

That's when the sellers won't see a sudden onslaught of buyers they're expecting, and realize they need to cut prices deeper.

WookieMan says

. Ultimately younger dads have gotten too passive.

What dads? Half of kids don't live with one.

Not aimed at you Wook, but it's very hard to get the mindset away from the Ward & June style family when it hasn't been the case in more than 40 years.

The Census is also guilty; what the Census is not considering is that Millies are in their "last chance" era to get married and still aren't marrying. In 2012 the average Millie was still in their early 20s. In 2022 they were in their early 30s. Millies being the largest fertile demographic.
https://www.census.gov/library/stories/2024/10/marriage-and-divorce.html

Ceffer says

Your fifteen minute city dream apartment in Miami.

That is about equal to the studio I lived in for $850 several years in the late 90s to early naughties. Except that looks like it'll get a regular refrigerator where I had one of those under the counter types smaller than a dishwasher with a shoe box freezer where anything not touching the metal defrosted.

I did have several more square feet of sleeping space though and a smaller bathroom.

Maga_Chaos_Monkey says

That is about equal to the studio I lived in for $850 several years in the late 90s to early naughties.

Hah if you were paying that much back then it was for one of two reasons.
It was a MIL quarters of a very nice house in a decent neighborhood, or you were paying by the week.
I remember back then many people that lived hand to mouth would get efficiencies by the week, because $150 to $200 a week was easier to cough up than paying $400 to $700 a month, or find a decent place in that range.
A shitbox multiplex showing in that video was most definitely a shitty ran down section 8 housing, owned by a slumlord. They smelt like bug spray and dog piss. Notice the lady in that video said as she walked out the unit. "Now lets look around outside at the rest of the property it's a nice upkept neighborhood. But she cut off before she ever panned out to the driveway, or the neighborhood.

There aren't any multi unit HUD places painted prison brown, and welfare beige, in any NICE neighborhoods in South Florida.

As for is $900 a good price for that unit. No but it's exhibit A for the trial for the hanging for whoever and whatever Scumbag rent seekers "colluded" to bring us to this point, that anyone would think it is a good price. People should be hung and shot for what they did to the world RE markets.

Tenpoundbass says

A shitbox multiplex showing in that video was most definitely a shitty ran down section 8 housing, owned by a slumlord. They smelt like bug spray and dog piss.

I once saw an apartment in South Florida like you described; there were chicken feathers and a dark red stain in the pantry, probably some Santeria Shrine. The rental agent and I booked it out of there.

Tenpoundbass says

Hah if you were paying that much back then it was for one of two reasons.

The two reasons: (1) It was on the San Francisco peninsula (2) During the dot com thing.

Yes there was section 8 in the building and it also smelled like dog, not dog piss but it had some 1960s nasty shag carpet. That is until the landlord was forced to replace it with the cheapest carpet available after the neighbor upstairs poured beans down the sink and flooded my unit with me in it.

I was a recent college undergrad and not making much money yet.

MolotovCocktail says

Boomers are dying and already bought in those regions. Average boomer is at minimum SS age. I think these builders thought the money train would keep coming. FL and AZ won't be a crash, but they're gonna eat shit for 10-20 years until Millennials start retiring.

I'll admit my lack of knowledge though. I don't think 55+ communities can be used as comps for value in standard residential areas with no age restrictions. So it might not be super bad. We only have I think two 55+ communities in my region. FL and AZ have a large chunk of that market. I never deal with a deal on one of those.

25,000 homes for sale in Lee County, that's crazy. Lee is/was a rural county that boomed mostly during COVID.

WookieMan says

Average boomer is at minimum SS age. I

All Boomers, if you put the stop year at 1960, are basically SS Eligible. The biggest birth year in US History was 57 so all of those are now SS ready.

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Yes demographics (i.e., census bureau data) is destiny as Ken Gronbach, an expert in demographics, stated this on Coast to Coast AM

I know Panama City, Florida and Bay County use that data as far as planning and advising such as for residential development

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https://www.realtor.com/realestateandhomes-detail/2144-Crawford-Ct_The-Villages_FL_32162_M68333-31400

this The Villages 1142 sq ft, 2 bedrm/2 bath single detached home sold brand new in 2005 for $159,900

just sold for $313,500 this month

here is another recent sale in The Villages https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/1918-Walden-Way-The-Villages-FL-32162/66225215_zpid/

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WookieMan says

We only have I think two 55+ communities in my region.

I'm 55-- but am renting a house in a 55+. I like it, it's quiet, no barking dogs, there is privacy and a green belt behind me and lots of wildlife comes through the yard (low rod iron fence that the deer easily jump and the other stuff just slips through) that I catch on web cameras. Also lots of q-tips driving around all over the place in golf carts haha... There were about 30 of them that came by in a Trump parade before the election. I happened to be in the garage cleaning it out so I cheered them on. The neighbor lady across the street with the Kamala sign came out and gave me the stink eye.

Gated too.

Right now I'm in an Olympic IQ competition with some squirrels vs. my bird feeder and I've made a comeback and am winning at this point. I may need to cut another cedar tree branch if they pull ahead again though.

Some of the house design is weird though. The dishwasher is about 3 feet away from the sink and elevated. So I get water all over the floor transferring the plates. I think I get it though. It's so I don't have to bend over so far to set/get dishes from the washer.

My landlord made me promise to keep it on the down low and not go to the quite nice clubhouse.

AD says

just sold for $313,500 this month

Poor fools. In 2-3 years it'll be $250k. This happens every 10-15 years like clockwork in Florida (forget the financial crisis, there was a dip in the 90s and 70s too) and the price downturn is just beginning. Places like Austin and Dallas, TX too.

Inventory is still rising dramatically and buyer interest collapsing.

The Homeloaners and Small Investors keep fluffing a clear correction, while homebuilders have finally cut prices way back after failing to save themselves with teaser rates and freebies. The dumb money will wait and wait until life events force them to act, then they will all cut drastically in tandem. It's already happening with coastal condos. SFHs and Townhomes are next.

AD says

here is another recent sale in The Villages https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/1918-Walden-Way-The-Villages-FL-32162/66225215_zpid/

Oh man, I hope that is a MN or NJ state employee for their own sake. Hoo wee, the prop tax on that must be insane, not to mention the insurance.

BTW, there are some bad things about Florida. For one, they let the shady insurance bankruptcy key personnel and investors come back before the 7 year ban period and only to be fined fractional to their salary and non-salary benefits. They should have imprisoned them.

AmericanKulak says

Poor fools. In 2-3 years it'll be $250k

As far as the fools buying this one: https://www.realtor.com/realestateandhomes-detail/2144-Crawford-Ct_The-Villages_FL_32162_M68333-31400

It's peak market price was likely $430,000 in 2022 so it sold for about 28% less than that this month. It sold for $160,000 in 2005, so a 3% annual appreciation rate equates currently to around a $290,000 market price.

Bay County, Florida and Panama City it at least actively is diversifying its economy beyond the Navy and Air Force bases AND tourism and senior care, such as with Eastern Shipyard, Berg Pipe, Trane HVAC manufacturing plant, the maritime port, the industrial park at the airport, etc

https://www.mypanhandle.com/news/local-news/bay-county/new-projects-presented-at-the-bay-economic-development-alliance-meeting/

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AD says

Bay County, Florida and Panama City it at least actively is diversifying its economy beyond the Navy and Air Force bases AND tourism and senior care, such as with Eastern Shipyard, Berg Pipe, Trane HVAC manufacturing plant, the maritime port, the industrial park at the airport, etc

Millions of jobs to go. A few thousand is a drop in the bucket. FL's top employer is Publix, I guarantee NJ's top employer isn't Pathmark.

This is a subject that has been discussed for 40 years, and for those 40 years there are those who claim the industry in right around the corner to take advantage of Florida's rock bottom wages but fairly decently educated workforce, but it never happens. The state fills up with people far faster, and the mix remains the same. In fact, agra is declining (not that that offers large numbers of middle class jobs) and low-end (non-middle class salaries) services grow. Florida's problem is there is no job to upgrade INTO. There are only so many retail/bank managers for several bank tellers or store keyholders.

With an average income of about 55k - and that itself is fluffed up bigly by retirees bringing big fat Yankee Pensions - the median Florida home should be under $200k. $270k would be about 5x income.

Which it was, before the 21st century financialization era, and will be, once the influx stops, and in fact, it's already peaked and the COVID refugees and investors (both big, very fast, and the small ones in denial, more slowly) are fleeing.

The Affordability Crisis and the Demographic Crisis (with a sprinkle of low-end Service dependency) are hitting at the same time

I prefer asset price reductions and slashing down the pricing power on goods over wage increases. Landlords and Business hate both, they want low wages but skyrocketing asset values. Just like 19C British farmers wanted cheap labor but expensive grain.

AmericanKulak says

With an average income of about 55k - and that's fluffed up by retirees bringing big fat Yankee Pensions - the median Florida home should be under $200k. $270k would be about 5x income.

Again you see everything from the lens of central to south Florida and not the Florida panhandle specifically Panama City.

One of the advantages is that retirees and semi retirees like living on or near the beach in Panama City and being near their families and businesses within 10 hours drive in Louisville, Atlanta and Nashville.

Panama City has many facets like tourism, healthcare, shipyard, pipe and air conditioning manufacturing plants, and military bases.
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Panama City prices are declining along with the rest of the state, inventory is rising across all dwelling sizes, and days on market is up to 110 days from 90 last year.

It's not as bad as the SW / West Central Coast - yet.

AmericanKulak says

Panama City prices are declining along with the rest of the state, inventory is rising across all dwelling sizes, and days on market is up to 110 days from 90 last year.

It's not as bad as the SW / West Central Coast - yet.

I would not count out the Florida panhandle especially Panama City Florida. I know cause I see it firsthand as far as demographics and economic development like the participating in the local economic development alliance.

Yes somewhat count out the Tampa to Orlando to Daytona route or corridor, but it will reinvent itself and it will revitalize.

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https://finance.yahoo.com/news/florida-metro-foreclosure-capital-us-102500296.html

Lakeland, Florida had the nation’s highest foreclosure rate in 2024 among metro areas with at least 200,000 residents, according to real estate data firm ATTOM. One out of every 172 housing units had foreclosure filings.

AnotAD says

Bay County, Florida and Panama City it at least actively is diversifying its economy beyond the Navy and Air Force bases AND tourism and senior care, such as with Eastern Shipyard, Berg Pipe, Trane HVAC manufacturing plant, the maritime port, the industrial park at the airport, etc

This is another example of Bay County, Florida working to diversify the economy.

They also promote the local colleges like Gulf Coast State College and Florida State Panama City campus and Haney Technical School (local vocational college owned by the county).

They did the same thing in St. Lucie County 40 years ago. They got some warehouses and QVC, and then QVC closed, which was a warehouse anyway.

Florida does do a good job with tech training, but eventually they realize how much better both wages are elsewhere. About 1/3 of my HS Grad class moved to other states.

Cabinet installer in the Villages pays $2 over minimum wage.
We got to install them custom cabinets, custom kitchens, deliver-iver-ieeees for $15/hr.
Look at that Yoyo.
That's the way you don't do it.
Lug that shit from your truck in 90 Degrees with 90% humidity
Oh, that's the way you don't do it.
East Virginia rents on a West Virginia mountain mamma salary.
https://www.ziprecruiter.com/co/Kitchen-Tune-Up-The-Villages-and-Chain-of-Lakes/Jobs/--in-Florida
I didn't go looking for this, it popped up when doing state/city comparisons.

"It's an unskilled job!" No, it's not:
Excellent attention to detail and ability to follow directions.
Able to drill for hinges.
Able to install doors and drawer fronts.
Able to install roll-out trays in cabinets.
Ability to safely operate power hand tools including a table saw, band saw, power hand saw, router, planer, and powered nail gun.

It also looks like you're prebuilding at least some cabinets offsite, too.

Cutting custom kitchen cabinetry to size != unskilled slapping Chipotle beans in a box.

Notice no mention of health insurance, just pizza parties (so typical Florida business, LOL)

AmericanKulak says

Lug that shit from your truck in 90 Degrees with 90% humidity

Sauna workout? Not bad if you're fat. No gym membership.