patrick.net

AmericanKulak says

The housing collapse is going to happen a couple of months or so after the rate first cut.

That's when the sellers won't see a sudden onslaught of buyers they're expecting, and realize they need to cut prices deeper.

WookieMan says

. Ultimately younger dads have gotten too passive.

What dads? Half of kids don't live with one.

Not aimed at you Wook, but it's very hard to get the mindset away from the Ward & June style family when it hasn't been the case in more than 40 years.

The Census is also guilty; what the Census is not considering is that Millies are in their "last chance" era to get married and still aren't marrying. In 2012 the average Millie was still in their early 20s. In 2022 they were in their early 30s. Millies being the largest fertile demographic.
https://www.census.gov/library/stories/2024/10/marriage-and-divorce.html

Ceffer says

Your fifteen minute city dream apartment in Miami.

That is about equal to the studio I lived in for $850 several years in the late 90s to early naughties. Except that looks like it'll get a regular refrigerator where I had one of those under the counter types smaller than a dishwasher with a shoe box freezer where anything not touching the metal defrosted.

I did have several more square feet of sleeping space though and a smaller bathroom.

Maga_Chaos_Monkey says

That is about equal to the studio I lived in for $850 several years in the late 90s to early naughties.

Hah if you were paying that much back then it was for one of two reasons.
It was a MIL quarters of a very nice house in a decent neighborhood, or you were paying by the week.
I remember back then many people that lived hand to mouth would get efficiencies by the week, because $150 to $200 a week was easier to cough up than paying $400 to $700 a month, or find a decent place in that range.
A shitbox multiplex showing in that video was most definitely a shitty ran down section 8 housing, owned by a slumlord. They smelt like bug spray and dog piss. Notice the lady in that video said as she walked out the unit. "Now lets look around outside at the rest of the property it's a nice upkept neighborhood. But she cut off before she ever panned out to the driveway, or the neighborhood.

There aren't any multi unit HUD places painted prison brown, and welfare beige, in any NICE neighborhoods in South Florida.

As for is $900 a good price for that unit. No but it's exhibit A for the trial for the hanging for whoever and whatever Scumbag rent seekers "colluded" to bring us to this point, that anyone would think it is a good price. People should be hung and shot for what they did to the world RE markets.

Tenpoundbass says

A shitbox multiplex showing in that video was most definitely a shitty ran down section 8 housing, owned by a slumlord. They smelt like bug spray and dog piss.

I once saw an apartment in South Florida like you described; there were chicken feathers and a dark red stain in the pantry, probably some Santeria Shrine. The rental agent and I booked it out of there.

Tenpoundbass says

Hah if you were paying that much back then it was for one of two reasons.

The two reasons: (1) It was on the San Francisco peninsula (2) During the dot com thing.

Yes there was section 8 in the building and it also smelled like dog, not dog piss but it had some 1960s nasty shag carpet. That is until the landlord was forced to replace it with the cheapest carpet available after the neighbor upstairs poured beans down the sink and flooded my unit with me in it.

I was a recent college undergrad and not making much money yet.

MolotovCocktail says

Boomers are dying and already bought in those regions. Average boomer is at minimum SS age. I think these builders thought the money train would keep coming. FL and AZ won't be a crash, but they're gonna eat shit for 10-20 years until Millennials start retiring.

I'll admit my lack of knowledge though. I don't think 55+ communities can be used as comps for value in standard residential areas with no age restrictions. So it might not be super bad. We only have I think two 55+ communities in my region. FL and AZ have a large chunk of that market. I never deal with a deal on one of those.

25,000 homes for sale in Lee County, that's crazy. Lee is/was a rural county that boomed mostly during COVID.

WookieMan says

Average boomer is at minimum SS age. I

All Boomers, if you put the stop year at 1960, are basically SS Eligible. The biggest birth year in US History was 57 so all of those are now SS ready.

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Yes demographics (i.e., census bureau data) is destiny as Ken Gronbach, an expert in demographics, stated this on Coast to Coast AM

I know Panama City, Florida and Bay County use that data as far as planning and advising such as for residential development

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https://www.realtor.com/realestateandhomes-detail/2144-Crawford-Ct_The-Villages_FL_32162_M68333-31400

this The Villages 1142 sq ft, 2 bedrm/2 bath single detached home sold brand new in 2005 for $159,900

just sold for $313,500 this month

here is another recent sale in The Villages https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/1918-Walden-Way-The-Villages-FL-32162/66225215_zpid/

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WookieMan says

We only have I think two 55+ communities in my region.

I'm 55-- but am renting a house in a 55+. I like it, it's quiet, no barking dogs, there is privacy and a green belt behind me and lots of wildlife comes through the yard (low rod iron fence that the deer easily jump and the other stuff just slips through) that I catch on web cameras. Also lots of q-tips driving around all over the place in golf carts haha... There were about 30 of them that came by in a Trump parade before the election. I happened to be in the garage cleaning it out so I cheered them on. The neighbor lady across the street with the Kamala sign came out and gave me the stink eye.

Gated too.

Right now I'm in an Olympic IQ competition with some squirrels vs. my bird feeder and I've made a comeback and am winning at this point. I may need to cut another cedar tree branch if they pull ahead again though.

Some of the house design is weird though. The dishwasher is about 3 feet away from the sink and elevated. So I get water all over the floor transferring the plates. I think I get it though. It's so I don't have to bend over so far to set/get dishes from the washer.

My landlord made me promise to keep it on the down low and not go to the quite nice clubhouse.

AD says

just sold for $313,500 this month

Poor fools. In 2-3 years it'll be $250k. This happens every 10-15 years like clockwork in Florida (forget the financial crisis, there was a dip in the 90s and 70s too) and the price downturn is just beginning. Places like Austin and Dallas, TX too.

Inventory is still rising dramatically and buyer interest collapsing.

The Homeloaners and Small Investors keep fluffing a clear correction, while homebuilders have finally cut prices way back after failing to save themselves with teaser rates and freebies. The dumb money will wait and wait until life events force them to act, then they will all cut drastically in tandem. It's already happening with coastal condos. SFHs and Townhomes are next.

AD says

here is another recent sale in The Villages https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/1918-Walden-Way-The-Villages-FL-32162/66225215_zpid/

Oh man, I hope that is a MN or NJ state employee for their own sake. Hoo wee, the prop tax on that must be insane, not to mention the insurance.

BTW, there are some bad things about Florida. For one, they let the shady insurance bankruptcy key personnel and investors come back before the 7 year ban period and only to be fined fractional to their salary and non-salary benefits. They should have imprisoned them.

AmericanKulak says

Poor fools. In 2-3 years it'll be $250k

As far as the fools buying this one: https://www.realtor.com/realestateandhomes-detail/2144-Crawford-Ct_The-Villages_FL_32162_M68333-31400

It's peak market price was likely $430,000 in 2022 so it sold for about 28% less than that this month. It sold for $160,000 in 2005, so a 3% annual appreciation rate equates currently to around a $290,000 market price.

Bay County, Florida and Panama City it at least actively is diversifying its economy beyond the Navy and Air Force bases AND tourism and senior care, such as with Eastern Shipyard, Berg Pipe, Trane HVAC manufacturing plant, the maritime port, the industrial park at the airport, etc

https://www.mypanhandle.com/news/local-news/bay-county/new-projects-presented-at-the-bay-economic-development-alliance-meeting/

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AD says

Bay County, Florida and Panama City it at least actively is diversifying its economy beyond the Navy and Air Force bases AND tourism and senior care, such as with Eastern Shipyard, Berg Pipe, Trane HVAC manufacturing plant, the maritime port, the industrial park at the airport, etc

Millions of jobs to go. A few thousand is a drop in the bucket. FL's top employer is Publix, I guarantee NJ's top employer isn't Pathmark.

This is a subject that has been discussed for 40 years, and for those 40 years there are those who claim the industry in right around the corner to take advantage of Florida's rock bottom wages but fairly decently educated workforce, but it never happens. The state fills up with people far faster, and the mix remains the same. In fact, agra is declining (not that that offers large numbers of middle class jobs) and low-end (non-middle class salaries) services grow. Florida's problem is there is no job to upgrade INTO. There are only so many retail/bank managers for several bank tellers or store keyholders.

With an average income of about 55k - and that itself is fluffed up bigly by retirees bringing big fat Yankee Pensions - the median Florida home should be under $200k. $270k would be about 5x income.

Which it was, before the 21st century financialization era, and will be, once the influx stops, and in fact, it's already peaked and the COVID refugees and investors (both big, very fast, and the small ones in denial, more slowly) are fleeing.

The Affordability Crisis and the Demographic Crisis (with a sprinkle of low-end Service dependency) are hitting at the same time

I prefer asset price reductions and slashing down the pricing power on goods over wage increases. Landlords and Business hate both, they want low wages but skyrocketing asset values. Just like 19C British farmers wanted cheap labor but expensive grain.

AmericanKulak says

With an average income of about 55k - and that's fluffed up by retirees bringing big fat Yankee Pensions - the median Florida home should be under $200k. $270k would be about 5x income.

Again you see everything from the lens of central to south Florida and not the Florida panhandle specifically Panama City.

One of the advantages is that retirees and semi retirees like living on or near the beach in Panama City and being near their families and businesses within 10 hours drive in Louisville, Atlanta and Nashville.

Panama City has many facets like tourism, healthcare, shipyard, pipe and air conditioning manufacturing plants, and military bases.
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Panama City prices are declining along with the rest of the state, inventory is rising across all dwelling sizes, and days on market is up to 110 days from 90 last year.

It's not as bad as the SW / West Central Coast - yet.

AmericanKulak says

Panama City prices are declining along with the rest of the state, inventory is rising across all dwelling sizes, and days on market is up to 110 days from 90 last year.

It's not as bad as the SW / West Central Coast - yet.

I would not count out the Florida panhandle especially Panama City Florida. I know cause I see it firsthand as far as demographics and economic development like the participating in the local economic development alliance.

Yes somewhat count out the Tampa to Orlando to Daytona route or corridor, but it will reinvent itself and it will revitalize.

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https://finance.yahoo.com/news/florida-metro-foreclosure-capital-us-102500296.html

Lakeland, Florida had the nation’s highest foreclosure rate in 2024 among metro areas with at least 200,000 residents, according to real estate data firm ATTOM. One out of every 172 housing units had foreclosure filings.

AnotAD says

Bay County, Florida and Panama City it at least actively is diversifying its economy beyond the Navy and Air Force bases AND tourism and senior care, such as with Eastern Shipyard, Berg Pipe, Trane HVAC manufacturing plant, the maritime port, the industrial park at the airport, etc

This is another example of Bay County, Florida working to diversify the economy.

They also promote the local colleges like Gulf Coast State College and Florida State Panama City campus and Haney Technical School (local vocational college owned by the county).

They did the same thing in St. Lucie County 40 years ago. They got some warehouses and QVC, and then QVC closed, which was a warehouse anyway.

Florida does do a good job with tech training, but eventually they realize how much better both wages are elsewhere. About 1/3 of my HS Grad class moved to other states.

Cabinet installer in the Villages pays $2 over minimum wage.
We got to install them custom cabinets, custom kitchens, deliver-iver-ieeees for $15/hr.
Look at that Yoyo.
That's the way you don't do it.
Lug that shit from your truck in 90 Degrees with 90% humidity
Oh, that's the way you don't do it.
East Virginia rents on a West Virginia mountain mamma salary.
https://www.ziprecruiter.com/co/Kitchen-Tune-Up-The-Villages-and-Chain-of-Lakes/Jobs/--in-Florida
I didn't go looking for this, it popped up when doing state/city comparisons.

"It's an unskilled job!" No, it's not:
Excellent attention to detail and ability to follow directions.
Able to drill for hinges.
Able to install doors and drawer fronts.
Able to install roll-out trays in cabinets.
Ability to safely operate power hand tools including a table saw, band saw, power hand saw, router, planer, and powered nail gun.

It also looks like you're prebuilding at least some cabinets offsite, too.

Cutting custom kitchen cabinetry to size != unskilled slapping Chipotle beans in a box.

Notice no mention of health insurance, just pizza parties (so typical Florida business, LOL)

AmericanKulak says

Lug that shit from your truck in 90 Degrees with 90% humidity

Sauna workout? Not bad if you're fat. No gym membership.

WookieMan says

Sauna workout? Not bad if you're fat. No gym membership.

You also have to assemble and install it, for the lofty sum of $15/hr, no health insurance.

Maybe Mr. Olsen will give you a $10 tip, which was mighty handsome back in 1985 when he was a yung fella just startin out

WookieMan says

Lug that shit from your truck in 90 Degrees with 90% humidity

No way it gets that bad as far as the heat index (which is 122) in even South Florida.

For Panama City Beach, if it is 90 degs or more then the humidity is rarely over 60%, which means the heat index is always no more than around 100 during the hottest days of the year.

As far as American Kulak comment about Florida offering tech and vocational training, that definitely also applies a lot to Bay County and Panama City. They heavily train locally at Haney Tech for nursing/medical, electrician, plumber, car mechanic and HVAC technician.

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AD says

No way it gets that bad as far as the heat index (which is 122) in even South Florida.

LOL, Florida Summers are infamous, and they begin about May and last till October.

Panama City isn't San Diego, it's about the same as NOLA or Mobile, hot and sweaty half the year. It's at pretty much the same latitude with the same climate on the same body of water.

There are +85F +80% Humidity days, plural, for days at a time, several times a year in New Jersey and Virginia and Ohio and Pennsylvania, much less Florida. Florida summers are a whole other level, there's few breaks. It's as often more humid and steamy after a thunderstorm than before it.

https://weatherspark.com/y/18686/Average-Weather-in-Fort-Lauderdale-Florida-United-States-Year-Round

And Tampa isn't much nicer in the summer.




50% of all days are "Opressive" and 20-30% of all days "Miserable" in Tampa from May to Oct

There's a reason people avoid living in Florida in Summer and why there are misters and A/C rest areas at Universal and Disney.

And a reason my electric bill is $70 Nov-Apr and $140 in May-Oct

Panama City, where about 50% of days from May to Mid-October are steamy and miserable. And 90% of the summer - and it often stays in the 80s with heavy humidity at night, too. There's a big reason snowbirds don't come back until after Thanksgiving and leave around Easter

Punta Gorda hits 2008 levels of housing inventory
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yckv2HAm-XE

AmericanKulak says

Panama City isn't San Diego, it's about the same as NOLA or Mobile, hot and sweaty half the year. It's at pretty much the same latitude with the same climate on the same body of water.

There are +85F +80% Humidity days, plural, for days at a time, several times a year in New Jersey and Virginia and Ohio and Pennsylvania, much less Florida. Florida summers are a whole other level, there's few breaks. It's as often more humid and steamy after a thunderstorm than before it.

I've never seen it get above 60% relative humidity in Panama City Beach when the thermometer reports at least 90 degrees Fahrenheit. So yes, it depends on what you define as muggy in regards to the "heat index". But yes, it is humid or muggy weather from mid June to mid September, but so is New York City during that period.
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AD says

I've never seen it get above 60% relative humidity in Panama City Beach when the thermometer reports at least 90 degrees Fahrenheit. So yes, it depends on what you define as muggy in regards to the "heat index". But yes, it is humid or muggy weather from mid June to mid September, but so is New York City during that period.

I like the humidity was my point in my previous comment. IL is humid as can be during the summer as well. I'll sweat using a rider mower. Sweating is good for you though. Purges' crap out of your body. Then take a cold shower. Also good for you.

Dry heat like AZ I feel like someone put me on a pan in the oven and is baking me. I'll take humidity 10 out of 10 times. All it takes is a fan to cool you down with humidity. In AZ a fan is just a convection oven. Just cooks you evenly.

AD says

I've never seen it get above 60% relative humidity in Panama City Beach when the thermometer reports at least 90 degrees Fahrenheit.

WookieMan says

I like the humidity was my point in my previous comment.

I gotcha, but the recorded weather records for the region show the high humidity WITH high temps is normal for about half the year.

All it takes is a fan to cool you down with humidity.

Wow, my view is 180. You can't get cool in high humidity without A/C, since a shower doesn't relieve the wetness and a fan just blows the steam around. In dry heat you can find the shade or use water to cool you off. Also you can keep items like paper in the garage or outside on the deck without it getting moldy and rotten.

https://amp.bradenton.com/news/business/real-estate-news/article304039881.html

Sarasota, Manatee home values tumble, marking one of the biggest drops nationwide

Sarasota County saw a 7% decline over the past year, with Manatee close behind at 5%, according to the latest data from Zillow Home Value Index.

AmericanKulak says

Wow, my view is 180. You can't get cool in high humidity without A/C, since a shower doesn't relieve the wetness and a fan just blows the steam around. In dry heat you can find the shade or use water to cool you off. Also you can keep items like paper in the garage or outside on the deck without it getting moldy and rotten.

I agree as evaporative cooling (or a swamp cooler method) does not work when the relative humidity is greater than around 40%.

The key is to reduce the humidity inside and we keep ours around 60% during the hottest days of summer.

Right now in Panama City Beach the dry bulb temperature is 82 degrees and the humidity is 75%, which means a "heat index" of 88.

During July it usually gets up to 90 degrees with humidity of 60% with a corresponding heat index of 100.

Florida panhandle is in extreme caution for about 3 months of the year, but I have not seen in it danger region of the heat index chart. But the great thing is it's beach weather generally from 1 March to end of November.

It has been discussed as far as Florida affordability crisis and compare to other states that pay better. I suspect the below job in Maine would pay only $25 an hour in Panama City, Florida, versus around $35 in Maine.

*********************************

We are hiring!
Job Title: Bus Mechanic
Location: 341 Bath Road, Brunswick, ME
Job Type: 3-5 Days a Week
Shift: 7:30-4:30
Company Overview:
Maine Bus Company, located in Brunswick, ME, is dedicated to providing safe, reliable, and efficient transportation services across the region. We’re looking for a dependable and skilled Bus Mechanic to join our team and help keep our fleet operating at its best.
Position Summary:
As a Bus Mechanic, you’ll perform inspections, maintenance, and repairs on school and commercial buses. This includes diagnosing mechanical and electrical problems, ensuring vehicle safety, and maintaining detailed service records.
Key Responsibilities:
• Perform preventive maintenance on diesel engines
• Diagnose and repair engines, transmissions, brakes, suspensions, and electrical systems
• Inspect and service HVAC, exhaust, and fuel systems
• Maintain accurate records of services and repairs
• Respond to road calls and provide emergency repairs when necessary
• Ensure compliance with DOT and state safety standards
Requirements:
• Must have your own tools
• High school diploma or GED
• 5+ years of experience with heavy vehicle or diesel repair (bus experience preferred)
• Valid driver’s license (CDL Class B with Passenger endorsement preferred or willingness to obtain)
• ASE certifications preferred
• Strong mechanical and diagnostic skills
• Ability to lift, bend, and work in varying conditions
• Attention to detail and commitment to safety
Compensation:
- $30-$40/hour depending on experience
Apply Today:
Apply in person at:
Maine Bus Company
341 Bath Road
Brunswick, ME 04011
Or email your resume to: brian@mainebuscompany.com
207-725-7189

AmericanKulak says

Panama City, where about 50% of days from May to Mid-October are steamy and miserable.

In Panama City Beach it is now 85 Degs Fahrenheit and 71% humid and sunny; heat index is around 92, so borderline caution and extreme caution :-(

but during the summer the humidity usually is 55% if the temp is in lower 90s so the heat index usually peaks around 100

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AD says

but during the summer the humidity usually is 55% if the temp is in lower 90s so the heat index usually peaks around 100

The historical weather records say otherwise. It's just like the rest of Florida and the Gulf Coast. Swimmin' in your shorts and drippin' like a mop, in Summer.

It's like other cities along the North shore of the Gulf of America: Mobile, Galveston, and NOLA, not San Diego. Nobody ever says "Wow, it's a dry heat here in Alabama in July"

AmericanKulak says

AD says

but during the summer the humidity usually is 55% if the temp is in lower 90s so the heat index usually peaks around 100

The historical weather records say otherwise. It's just like the rest of Florida and the Gulf Coast. Swimmin' in your shorts and drippin' like a mop, in Summer.

It's like other cities along the North shore of the Gulf of America: Mobile, Galveston, and NOLA, not San Diego. Nobody ever says "Wow, it's a dry heat here in Alabama in July"

Same goes for east coast like New Jersey, except you can comfortably go to the beach from beginning of March to end of November in the Florida panhandle.

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from June 2020 Reader's Digest page 73

I'm surprised Florida panhandle is average as it's beach weather from March 1 to November 30 and its great for kayaking and boating.

I'm not surprised about Illinois being below average.

AD says

March 1 to November 30 and its great for kayaking and boating.

And sweating your balls off just to walk to the mailbox within 2 minutes of leaving the A/C hahaha

AmericanKulak says

AD says

March 1 to November 30 and its great for kayaking and boating.

And sweating your balls off just to walk to the mailbox within 2 minutes of leaving the A/C hahaha

I like that though. Better than feeling like an oven. Golfed once in 110ºF temps in AZ and it was miserable. I'll take FL any day of the year. I wear long sleeves and pants in warm weather so the bugs won't bother me in humid location FL or an IL summer day.

San Diego area has the best weather in the country. Winter or summer. I like FL, though have never done August or September due to hurricanes. May I think is the best time in the Panhandle. Water is warming up, temps are solid and not generally humid.

WookieMan says

AmericanKulak says

AD says

March 1 to November 30 and its great for kayaking and boating.

And sweating your balls off just to walk to the mailbox within 2 minutes of leaving the A/C hahaha

I like that though. Better than feeling like an oven. Golfed once in 110ºF temps in AZ and it was miserable. I'll take FL any day of the year. I wear long sleeves and pants in warm weather so the bugs won't bother me in humid location FL or an IL summer day.

San Diego area has the best weather in the country. Winter or summer. I like FL, though have never done August or September due to hurricanes. May I think is the best time in the Panhandle. Water is warming up, temps are solid and not generally humid.

Exactly Wookie, you will not sweat your balls off by not wearing long sleeve cotton shirts and jeans

Wear this along with nylon (i.e., BREATHABLE) gym pants

https://www.walmart.com/ip/Mens-Athletic-Performance-Shirt-Long-Sleeve-Light-Blue-Mahi-M/215970851

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