patrick.net

AmericanKulak says

Poor fools. In 2-3 years it'll be $250k

As far as the fools buying this one: https://www.realtor.com/realestateandhomes-detail/2144-Crawford-Ct_The-Villages_FL_32162_M68333-31400

It's peak market price was likely $430,000 in 2022 so it sold for about 28% less than that this month. It sold for $160,000 in 2005, so a 3% annual appreciation rate equates currently to around a $290,000 market price.

Bay County, Florida and Panama City it at least actively is diversifying its economy beyond the Navy and Air Force bases AND tourism and senior care, such as with Eastern Shipyard, Berg Pipe, Trane HVAC manufacturing plant, the maritime port, the industrial park at the airport, etc

https://www.mypanhandle.com/news/local-news/bay-county/new-projects-presented-at-the-bay-economic-development-alliance-meeting/

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AD says

Bay County, Florida and Panama City it at least actively is diversifying its economy beyond the Navy and Air Force bases AND tourism and senior care, such as with Eastern Shipyard, Berg Pipe, Trane HVAC manufacturing plant, the maritime port, the industrial park at the airport, etc

Millions of jobs to go. A few thousand is a drop in the bucket. FL's top employer is Publix, I guarantee NJ's top employer isn't Pathmark.

This is a subject that has been discussed for 40 years, and for those 40 years there are those who claim the industry in right around the corner to take advantage of Florida's rock bottom wages but fairly decently educated workforce, but it never happens. The state fills up with people far faster, and the mix remains the same. In fact, agra is declining (not that that offers large numbers of middle class jobs) and low-end (non-middle class salaries) services grow. Florida's problem is there is no job to upgrade INTO. There are only so many retail/bank managers for several bank tellers or store keyholders.

With an average income of about 55k - and that itself is fluffed up bigly by retirees bringing big fat Yankee Pensions - the median Florida home should be under $200k. $270k would be about 5x income.

Which it was, before the 21st century financialization era, and will be, once the influx stops, and in fact, it's already peaked and the COVID refugees and investors (both big, very fast, and the small ones in denial, more slowly) are fleeing.

The Affordability Crisis and the Demographic Crisis (with a sprinkle of low-end Service dependency) are hitting at the same time

I prefer asset price reductions and slashing down the pricing power on goods over wage increases. Landlords and Business hate both, they want low wages but skyrocketing asset values. Just like 19C British farmers wanted cheap labor but expensive grain.

AmericanKulak says

With an average income of about 55k - and that's fluffed up by retirees bringing big fat Yankee Pensions - the median Florida home should be under $200k. $270k would be about 5x income.

Again you see everything from the lens of central to south Florida and not the Florida panhandle specifically Panama City.

One of the advantages is that retirees and semi retirees like living on or near the beach in Panama City and being near their families and businesses within 10 hours drive in Louisville, Atlanta and Nashville.

Panama City has many facets like tourism, healthcare, shipyard, pipe and air conditioning manufacturing plants, and military bases.
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Panama City prices are declining along with the rest of the state, inventory is rising across all dwelling sizes, and days on market is up to 110 days from 90 last year.

It's not as bad as the SW / West Central Coast - yet.

AmericanKulak says

Panama City prices are declining along with the rest of the state, inventory is rising across all dwelling sizes, and days on market is up to 110 days from 90 last year.

It's not as bad as the SW / West Central Coast - yet.

I would not count out the Florida panhandle especially Panama City Florida. I know cause I see it firsthand as far as demographics and economic development like the participating in the local economic development alliance.

Yes somewhat count out the Tampa to Orlando to Daytona route or corridor, but it will reinvent itself and it will revitalize.

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https://finance.yahoo.com/news/florida-metro-foreclosure-capital-us-102500296.html

Lakeland, Florida had the nation’s highest foreclosure rate in 2024 among metro areas with at least 200,000 residents, according to real estate data firm ATTOM. One out of every 172 housing units had foreclosure filings.

AnotAD says

Bay County, Florida and Panama City it at least actively is diversifying its economy beyond the Navy and Air Force bases AND tourism and senior care, such as with Eastern Shipyard, Berg Pipe, Trane HVAC manufacturing plant, the maritime port, the industrial park at the airport, etc

This is another example of Bay County, Florida working to diversify the economy.

They also promote the local colleges like Gulf Coast State College and Florida State Panama City campus and Haney Technical School (local vocational college owned by the county).

They did the same thing in St. Lucie County 40 years ago. They got some warehouses and QVC, and then QVC closed, which was a warehouse anyway.

Florida does do a good job with tech training, but eventually they realize how much better both wages are elsewhere. About 1/3 of my HS Grad class moved to other states.

Cabinet installer in the Villages pays $2 over minimum wage.
We got to install them custom cabinets, custom kitchens, deliver-iver-ieeees for $15/hr.
Look at that Yoyo.
That's the way you don't do it.
Lug that shit from your truck in 90 Degrees with 90% humidity
Oh, that's the way you don't do it.
East Virginia rents on a West Virginia mountain mamma salary.
https://www.ziprecruiter.com/co/Kitchen-Tune-Up-The-Villages-and-Chain-of-Lakes/Jobs/--in-Florida
I didn't go looking for this, it popped up when doing state/city comparisons.

"It's an unskilled job!" No, it's not:
Excellent attention to detail and ability to follow directions.
Able to drill for hinges.
Able to install doors and drawer fronts.
Able to install roll-out trays in cabinets.
Ability to safely operate power hand tools including a table saw, band saw, power hand saw, router, planer, and powered nail gun.

It also looks like you're prebuilding at least some cabinets offsite, too.

Cutting custom kitchen cabinetry to size != unskilled slapping Chipotle beans in a box.

Notice no mention of health insurance, just pizza parties (so typical Florida business, LOL)

AmericanKulak says

Lug that shit from your truck in 90 Degrees with 90% humidity

Sauna workout? Not bad if you're fat. No gym membership.

WookieMan says

Sauna workout? Not bad if you're fat. No gym membership.

You also have to assemble and install it, for the lofty sum of $15/hr, no health insurance.

Maybe Mr. Olsen will give you a $10 tip, which was mighty handsome back in 1985 when he was a yung fella just startin out

WookieMan says

Lug that shit from your truck in 90 Degrees with 90% humidity

No way it gets that bad as far as the heat index (which is 122) in even South Florida.

For Panama City Beach, if it is 90 degs or more then the humidity is rarely over 60%, which means the heat index is always no more than around 100 during the hottest days of the year.

As far as American Kulak comment about Florida offering tech and vocational training, that definitely also applies a lot to Bay County and Panama City. They heavily train locally at Haney Tech for nursing/medical, electrician, plumber, car mechanic and HVAC technician.

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AD says

No way it gets that bad as far as the heat index (which is 122) in even South Florida.

LOL, Florida Summers are infamous, and they begin about May and last till October.

Panama City isn't San Diego, it's about the same as NOLA or Mobile, hot and sweaty half the year. It's at pretty much the same latitude with the same climate on the same body of water.

There are +85F +80% Humidity days, plural, for days at a time, several times a year in New Jersey and Virginia and Ohio and Pennsylvania, much less Florida. Florida summers are a whole other level, there's few breaks. It's as often more humid and steamy after a thunderstorm than before it.

https://weatherspark.com/y/18686/Average-Weather-in-Fort-Lauderdale-Florida-United-States-Year-Round

And Tampa isn't much nicer in the summer.




50% of all days are "Opressive" and 20-30% of all days "Miserable" in Tampa from May to Oct

There's a reason people avoid living in Florida in Summer and why there are misters and A/C rest areas at Universal and Disney.

And a reason my electric bill is $70 Nov-Apr and $140 in May-Oct

Panama City, where about 50% of days from May to Mid-October are steamy and miserable. And 90% of the summer - and it often stays in the 80s with heavy humidity at night, too. There's a big reason snowbirds don't come back until after Thanksgiving and leave around Easter

Punta Gorda hits 2008 levels of housing inventory
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yckv2HAm-XE

AmericanKulak says

Panama City isn't San Diego, it's about the same as NOLA or Mobile, hot and sweaty half the year. It's at pretty much the same latitude with the same climate on the same body of water.

There are +85F +80% Humidity days, plural, for days at a time, several times a year in New Jersey and Virginia and Ohio and Pennsylvania, much less Florida. Florida summers are a whole other level, there's few breaks. It's as often more humid and steamy after a thunderstorm than before it.

I've never seen it get above 60% relative humidity in Panama City Beach when the thermometer reports at least 90 degrees Fahrenheit. So yes, it depends on what you define as muggy in regards to the "heat index". But yes, it is humid or muggy weather from mid June to mid September, but so is New York City during that period.
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AD says

I've never seen it get above 60% relative humidity in Panama City Beach when the thermometer reports at least 90 degrees Fahrenheit. So yes, it depends on what you define as muggy in regards to the "heat index". But yes, it is humid or muggy weather from mid June to mid September, but so is New York City during that period.

I like the humidity was my point in my previous comment. IL is humid as can be during the summer as well. I'll sweat using a rider mower. Sweating is good for you though. Purges' crap out of your body. Then take a cold shower. Also good for you.

Dry heat like AZ I feel like someone put me on a pan in the oven and is baking me. I'll take humidity 10 out of 10 times. All it takes is a fan to cool you down with humidity. In AZ a fan is just a convection oven. Just cooks you evenly.

AD says

I've never seen it get above 60% relative humidity in Panama City Beach when the thermometer reports at least 90 degrees Fahrenheit.

WookieMan says

I like the humidity was my point in my previous comment.

I gotcha, but the recorded weather records for the region show the high humidity WITH high temps is normal for about half the year.

All it takes is a fan to cool you down with humidity.

Wow, my view is 180. You can't get cool in high humidity without A/C, since a shower doesn't relieve the wetness and a fan just blows the steam around. In dry heat you can find the shade or use water to cool you off. Also you can keep items like paper in the garage or outside on the deck without it getting moldy and rotten.

https://amp.bradenton.com/news/business/real-estate-news/article304039881.html

Sarasota, Manatee home values tumble, marking one of the biggest drops nationwide

Sarasota County saw a 7% decline over the past year, with Manatee close behind at 5%, according to the latest data from Zillow Home Value Index.

AmericanKulak says

Wow, my view is 180. You can't get cool in high humidity without A/C, since a shower doesn't relieve the wetness and a fan just blows the steam around. In dry heat you can find the shade or use water to cool you off. Also you can keep items like paper in the garage or outside on the deck without it getting moldy and rotten.

I agree as evaporative cooling (or a swamp cooler method) does not work when the relative humidity is greater than around 40%.

The key is to reduce the humidity inside and we keep ours around 60% during the hottest days of summer.

Right now in Panama City Beach the dry bulb temperature is 82 degrees and the humidity is 75%, which means a "heat index" of 88.

During July it usually gets up to 90 degrees with humidity of 60% with a corresponding heat index of 100.

Florida panhandle is in extreme caution for about 3 months of the year, but I have not seen in it danger region of the heat index chart. But the great thing is it's beach weather generally from 1 March to end of November.

It has been discussed as far as Florida affordability crisis and compare to other states that pay better. I suspect the below job in Maine would pay only $25 an hour in Panama City, Florida, versus around $35 in Maine.

*********************************

We are hiring!
Job Title: Bus Mechanic
Location: 341 Bath Road, Brunswick, ME
Job Type: 3-5 Days a Week
Shift: 7:30-4:30
Company Overview:
Maine Bus Company, located in Brunswick, ME, is dedicated to providing safe, reliable, and efficient transportation services across the region. We’re looking for a dependable and skilled Bus Mechanic to join our team and help keep our fleet operating at its best.
Position Summary:
As a Bus Mechanic, you’ll perform inspections, maintenance, and repairs on school and commercial buses. This includes diagnosing mechanical and electrical problems, ensuring vehicle safety, and maintaining detailed service records.
Key Responsibilities:
• Perform preventive maintenance on diesel engines
• Diagnose and repair engines, transmissions, brakes, suspensions, and electrical systems
• Inspect and service HVAC, exhaust, and fuel systems
• Maintain accurate records of services and repairs
• Respond to road calls and provide emergency repairs when necessary
• Ensure compliance with DOT and state safety standards
Requirements:
• Must have your own tools
• High school diploma or GED
• 5+ years of experience with heavy vehicle or diesel repair (bus experience preferred)
• Valid driver’s license (CDL Class B with Passenger endorsement preferred or willingness to obtain)
• ASE certifications preferred
• Strong mechanical and diagnostic skills
• Ability to lift, bend, and work in varying conditions
• Attention to detail and commitment to safety
Compensation:
- $30-$40/hour depending on experience
Apply Today:
Apply in person at:
Maine Bus Company
341 Bath Road
Brunswick, ME 04011
Or email your resume to: brian@mainebuscompany.com
207-725-7189

AmericanKulak says

Panama City, where about 50% of days from May to Mid-October are steamy and miserable.

In Panama City Beach it is now 85 Degs Fahrenheit and 71% humid and sunny; heat index is around 92, so borderline caution and extreme caution :-(

but during the summer the humidity usually is 55% if the temp is in lower 90s so the heat index usually peaks around 100

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AD says

but during the summer the humidity usually is 55% if the temp is in lower 90s so the heat index usually peaks around 100

The historical weather records say otherwise. It's just like the rest of Florida and the Gulf Coast. Swimmin' in your shorts and drippin' like a mop, in Summer.

It's like other cities along the North shore of the Gulf of America: Mobile, Galveston, and NOLA, not San Diego. Nobody ever says "Wow, it's a dry heat here in Alabama in July"

AmericanKulak says

AD says

but during the summer the humidity usually is 55% if the temp is in lower 90s so the heat index usually peaks around 100

The historical weather records say otherwise. It's just like the rest of Florida and the Gulf Coast. Swimmin' in your shorts and drippin' like a mop, in Summer.

It's like other cities along the North shore of the Gulf of America: Mobile, Galveston, and NOLA, not San Diego. Nobody ever says "Wow, it's a dry heat here in Alabama in July"

Same goes for east coast like New Jersey, except you can comfortably go to the beach from beginning of March to end of November in the Florida panhandle.

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from June 2020 Reader's Digest page 73

I'm surprised Florida panhandle is average as it's beach weather from March 1 to November 30 and its great for kayaking and boating.

I'm not surprised about Illinois being below average.

AD says

March 1 to November 30 and its great for kayaking and boating.

And sweating your balls off just to walk to the mailbox within 2 minutes of leaving the A/C hahaha

AmericanKulak says

AD says

March 1 to November 30 and its great for kayaking and boating.

And sweating your balls off just to walk to the mailbox within 2 minutes of leaving the A/C hahaha

I like that though. Better than feeling like an oven. Golfed once in 110ºF temps in AZ and it was miserable. I'll take FL any day of the year. I wear long sleeves and pants in warm weather so the bugs won't bother me in humid location FL or an IL summer day.

San Diego area has the best weather in the country. Winter or summer. I like FL, though have never done August or September due to hurricanes. May I think is the best time in the Panhandle. Water is warming up, temps are solid and not generally humid.

WookieMan says

AmericanKulak says

AD says

March 1 to November 30 and its great for kayaking and boating.

And sweating your balls off just to walk to the mailbox within 2 minutes of leaving the A/C hahaha

I like that though. Better than feeling like an oven. Golfed once in 110ºF temps in AZ and it was miserable. I'll take FL any day of the year. I wear long sleeves and pants in warm weather so the bugs won't bother me in humid location FL or an IL summer day.

San Diego area has the best weather in the country. Winter or summer. I like FL, though have never done August or September due to hurricanes. May I think is the best time in the Panhandle. Water is warming up, temps are solid and not generally humid.

Exactly Wookie, you will not sweat your balls off by not wearing long sleeve cotton shirts and jeans

Wear this along with nylon (i.e., BREATHABLE) gym pants

https://www.walmart.com/ip/Mens-Athletic-Performance-Shirt-Long-Sleeve-Light-Blue-Mahi-M/215970851

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WookieMan says

I like that though. Better than feeling like an oven. Golfed once in 110ºF temps in AZ and it was miserable. I'll take FL any day of the year. I wear long sleeves and pants in warm weather so the bugs won't bother me in humid location FL or an IL summer day.

Exact opposite. I'll take an oven over a sauna every day and twice on Sunday.

Shade actually helps in low humidity.

Just like I prefer the Air Fryer over the Sogginator (my name for Microwaves)

AmericanKulak says

Another one:
https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/3802-Sunbeam-Ct-Merritt-Island-FL-32953/43404282_zpid/?mmlb=g%2C13

11/25/2013 Sold
$193,500
-3.2%
$98/sqft

2/14/2023 Listed for sale
$514,900
+166.1%
$261/sqft
Source: DBAMLS #1105834 Report a problem

It sold for $450,000 in April 2023 before the housing market started to freeze up

It sold for $134,000 in 2000, and was built in 1997

Went up in value about 5.5% annually from 2000 to 2023 :-/

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AmericanKulak says

Just like I prefer the Air Fryer over the Sogginator (my name for Microwaves)

In agreement. That's for food though. I don't microwave a thing for myself. As a human I'd rather sweat than be put in an oven.

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this 3 bedroom , 2.5 bath, 1 car garage unit in Panama City Beach currently rents for $1895 which is same price it may have rented in 2021
rents have steadied or have dropped some which helps the working class like the hospitality and service workers on the beach

https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/1609-Annabellas-Way-Panama-City-Beach-FL-32407/87635669_zpid/

My forecast is townhomes in Panama City Beach will drop about 20 to 25% from their all time highs set in early 2022, which are almost the same price level at the peak of the 2003-2006 Bill Clinton Housing Bubble.

............

Florida Housing Market Mirroring 2008 Crash—Real Estate Analyst

https://www.newsweek.com/florida-housing-mirroring-2008-crash-analyst-2067158

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I researched "Hathaway Luxury Apartments" in Panama City Beach (within 1 mile of Hathaway Bridge). It's a huge area where they cleared countless amounts of southern pine trees, as it looks like at least 200 apartment units will be built.

The agent for the Hathaway Luxury Apartment LLC is
Marvin Setness - Controller - RD Offutt Company

I wonder why a major potato company (RD Offutt Company from North Dakota) is an apartment developer in Panama City Beach 😕

But they stopped construction about 4 months ago after they cleared the land, perhaps waiting for the rental market to improve, and/or for interest rates to drop.

Rents seem to remain at 2021 or 2022 levels for at least townhomes on the beach and I don't trust the mega apartment complexes like Urban Blu as they are very deceitful.

US Department of Justice is suing Real Page which is used by apartment complexes to collude on rent.

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WookieMan says

In agreement. That's for food though. I don't microwave a thing for myself. As a human I'd rather sweat than be put in an oven.

Microwave devotion is a boomer thing mostly, maybe a few Xers who grew up with that as the primary cooking method. I think it's because it came out when they were kids and is always the "Hot New Thing in the Kitchen" in their mind.

I've seen Boomers look at me aghast when I've not had a microwave. And as if I didn't understand I could get one at the Thrift Shop. No, I just don't use it much, I have one now pretty much as a hotbox to keep food in if I'm making a multi-course meal.

"What about boiling water"? A $20 new electric kettle does the same thing faster, safer, larger quantity.

An unplugged microwave is a good place to toss cell phones and small laptops in case of an EMP attack.

If there was an emp attack, wouldn’t it fry the cell towers and wifi networks anyway? Only hope would be starlink type orbiting internet, but that is assuming that you still have a power source to charge your devices.

PeopleUnited says

If there was an emp attack, wouldn’t it fry the cell towers and wifi networks anyway? Only hope would be starlink type orbiting internet, but that is assuming that you still have a power source to charge your devices.

Starlink depends on computer servers in Bastrop, Texas. Use analog systems like a mid 1970s car (or earlier), and HAM radios that are not digital. Wish I had a Volkswagen Beetle built in 1970s.

AD says

I researched "Hathaway Luxury Apartments" in Panama City Beach (within 1 mile of Hathaway Bridge). It's a huge area where they cleared countless amounts of southern pine trees, as it looks like at least 200 apartment units will be built.

The agent for the Hathaway Luxury Apartment LLC is
Marvin Setness - Controller - RD Offutt Company

I wonder why a major potato company (RD Offutt Company from North Dakota) is an apartment developer in Panama City Beach 😕

But they stopped construction about 4 months ago after they cleared the land, perhaps waiting for the rental market to improve, and/or for interest rates to drop.

Rents seem to remain at 2021 or 2022 levels for at least townhomes on the beach and I don't trust the mega apartment complexes like Urban Blu as they are very deceitful.

US Department of Justice is suing Real Page which is used by apartment complexes to collude on rent.

.

My wife is a property manager and they conduct “Market Surveys” to keep up on pricing. These are phone calls and physical tours of neighboring apartment complexes to see what their rent and amenities are. I’m more than sure this is a tool used to collude also. I fail to see how the colluding could be stopped.

Glock-n-Load says

My wife is a property manager and they conduct “Market Surveys” to keep up on pricing. These are phone calls and physical tours of neighboring apartment complexes to see what their rent and amenities are. I’m more than sure this is a tool used to collude also. I fail to see how the colluding could be stopped.

Market research is not collusion. Collusion is when a group of landlords get together and agree on pricing.

HeadSet says

Glock-n-Load says

My wife is a property manager and they conduct “Market Surveys” to keep up on pricing. These are phone calls and physical tours of neighboring apartment complexes to see what their rent and amenities are. I’m more than sure this is a tool used to collude also. I fail to see how the colluding could be stopped.

Market research is not collusion. Collusion is when a group of landlords get together and agree on pricing.

And how do you think they do it? Maybe it isn’t explicit but, it can surely be accomplished like this. Tell me why they would do these market surveys then instead of just running their own businesses according to their own books/accounting? I imagine also, that collusion is very difficult to prove.

Glock-n-Load says

I imagine also, that collusion is very difficult to prove.

You'd need smoking gun evidence likely to prove antitrust behavior like collusion on depressing wages within a sector or industry, or collusion on rent prices.

I guess hidden camera video would be that, and doubt there would be a paper trail like emails.