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78
AmericanKulak
2024 Aug 18, 10:40pm
AmericanKulak
2024 Aug 18, 10:40pm
The housing collapse is going to happen a couple of months or so after the rate first cut.
That's when the sellers won't see a sudden onslaught of buyers they're expecting, and realize they need to cut prices deeper.
That's when the sellers won't see a sudden onslaught of buyers they're expecting, and realize they need to cut prices deeper.
79
AD
2024 Aug 18, 11:41pm
AD
2024 Aug 18, 11:41pm
WookieMan says
A 3 bedroom , 2.5 bath, 2 car garage townhome in my neighborhood in Panama City Beach sold for $299,000 two months ago when the 30 yr mortgage rate was at least 7%. It could have sold for at most $335,000 back in early 2022 when the 30 yr mortgage rate was 3%.
I think a townhome like this will bottom around 80% of the peak price, so around $268,000 by spring 2026.
This is based on 30 yr mortgage rate of around 5.5% and that price is at an affordability level similar to with the 3% rate in early 2022.
The same townhome sold for $187,000 in 2016 so that means around a 4% annual appreciation from 2016 to 2026.
.
FL is at the end of the covid and boomer buzz and ran out of booze in my opinion. I don't think prices will do well.
A 3 bedroom , 2.5 bath, 2 car garage townhome in my neighborhood in Panama City Beach sold for $299,000 two months ago when the 30 yr mortgage rate was at least 7%. It could have sold for at most $335,000 back in early 2022 when the 30 yr mortgage rate was 3%.
I think a townhome like this will bottom around 80% of the peak price, so around $268,000 by spring 2026.
This is based on 30 yr mortgage rate of around 5.5% and that price is at an affordability level similar to with the 3% rate in early 2022.
The same townhome sold for $187,000 in 2016 so that means around a 4% annual appreciation from 2016 to 2026.
.
80
AD
2024 Aug 19, 12:01am
AD
2024 Aug 19, 12:01am
What I hope is household income continues to increase in the Florida panhandle while housing costs (mortgage or rent as well as property insurance) remain flat for the next two years.
Household income in Panama City Beach increased about 20% since early 2022 to present day, while a townhome sells for about 10% less than it did in early 2022 and rent seems to be at summer 2021 price level.
I was able to keep my property insurance (HO 3) premium the same at $1900 for 2025 for our townhome about 2 miles from the beach by increasing the deductible from $1000 to $2500 for a replacement value of around $275,000.
Household income in Panama City Beach increased about 20% since early 2022 to present day, while a townhome sells for about 10% less than it did in early 2022 and rent seems to be at summer 2021 price level.
I was able to keep my property insurance (HO 3) premium the same at $1900 for 2025 for our townhome about 2 miles from the beach by increasing the deductible from $1000 to $2500 for a replacement value of around $275,000.
81
RayAmerica
2024 Aug 19, 10:55am
RayAmerica
2024 Aug 19, 10:55am
My wife & I knew a lady that was a long time former Florida resident. She was a very sharp business lady. While discussing a possible move to Florida with her, she emphatically told us "don't ever buy real estate in Florida." She went on to describe specific examples of the "notoriously shoddy construction practices," along with her assertion that "most of the housing in Florida is built upon swamp land." We never made the move and I'm glad we didn't.
Regarding the collapse of the Champlain Tower South in Surfside, it often takes time for shoddy construction practices to show up, but eventually they do. I wouldn't be the slightest bit surprised see more of this down the road, and that too will have a major impact on Florida real estate prices in the future.
Regarding the collapse of the Champlain Tower South in Surfside, it often takes time for shoddy construction practices to show up, but eventually they do. I wouldn't be the slightest bit surprised see more of this down the road, and that too will have a major impact on Florida real estate prices in the future.
82
stereotomy
2024 Aug 19, 11:07am
stereotomy
2024 Aug 19, 11:07am
Hell, since the 1920's Florida real estate has been a scam - over a century. Are we all surprised?
83
zzyzzx
2025 Jan 14, 6:29am
zzyzzx
2025 Jan 14, 6:29am
https://nypost.com/2025/01/13/real-estate/homes-are-piling-up-on-the-market-in-florida-there-are-2-big-reasons-why/
Homes are piling up on the market in Florida — there are 2 big reasons why
Homes are piling up on the market in Florida — there are 2 big reasons why
84
WookieMan
2025 Jan 14, 6:48am
WookieMan
2025 Jan 14, 6:48am
I'd love it if people listened to me at some point.
Both Florida and Texas led the way in new construction during the pandemic, attempting to satisfy increasing demand from out-of-staters flocking to their warmer shores.
Home Builders Weekly, which tracks new-construction projects in Florida, reported that in 2024, there was a 10% year-over-year increase in new-construction permits—with Northeast Florida seeing a 25% increase year over year.
85
Tenpoundbass
2025 Jan 14, 3:08pm
Tenpoundbass
2025 Jan 14, 3:08pm
Zillow
Zestimate®
$505,900
Also Zillow
Estimated sales range
$460,000 - $551,000
But finally Zillow
Estimated net proceeds
$370,505
Meanwhile I tell every picklehead Rent seeking baller that calls me, the house is not for sale, but it would take a million dollars to get me to think about moving. To which one moron asked, "Well has the house been recently updated?" To which I informed her, "You don't get the homework assignment" then hung up.
Zestimate®
$505,900
Also Zillow
Estimated sales range
$460,000 - $551,000
But finally Zillow
Estimated net proceeds
$370,505
Meanwhile I tell every picklehead Rent seeking baller that calls me, the house is not for sale, but it would take a million dollars to get me to think about moving. To which one moron asked, "Well has the house been recently updated?" To which I informed her, "You don't get the homework assignment" then hung up.
« First « Previous Comments 78 - 85 of 85 Search these comments
2015 - Sold For $155k
2/8/2019 Sold $209,000
Now? Asking $400,000
So we're to believe in 4 years, that this house legit went up almost double. Or in a decade went up almost triple.
Another one:
https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/3802-Sunbeam-Ct-Merritt-Island-FL-32953/43404282_zpid/?mmlb=g%2C13
11/25/2013 Sold
$193,500
-3.2%
$98/sqft
2/14/2023 Listed for sale
$514,900
+166.1%
$261/sqft
Source: DBAMLS #1105834 Report a problem
Both of these houses were minimally updated. The first one was built in the 1960s.
I got half dozen more examples. Here's another, it was just under $250k in what looks like a Steelolanogranite Realtor Flip Special in 2019, before COVID. It was purchased late 2018 for under $172k. Now they want almost $500k for it just 5 years later.
https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/356-W-Dover-St-Satellite-Beach-FL-32937/43448773_zpid/
If you're curious, check out Palm Bay and Melbourne on the mainland. 1950s/1960s Space Program small cinderblock specials, some with no Central Air, are going for almost the same as brand new construction much larger and more modern.