patrick.net

But Cali equity locust!

It is listed for sale, but lets see what price it sells at, if it does sell.

Sales volume has been significantly decreasing.

A lot of potential buyers may wait this out as buyers do this based on them expecting a deflationary environment.

Ultimately, wage growth needs to catch up with housing cost inflation to realize a more affordable housing market.

One way to track that is home price to household income ratio.

A 30 year mortgage rate of 3% allows for that ratio to be around 5. Now that ratio should be no more than 4.

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How many more illegals squeezing into dwellings does it take for the prices to make sense? 4 families? 5?

Misc says

How many more illegals squeezing into dwellings does it take for the prices to make sense? 4 families? 5?

Honestly, not many. There are a few illegals but they are mostly in a different part of town.

ad says

It is listed for sale, but lets see what price it sells at, if it does sell.

2 bed, 1 bath less than 800 sq ft around here listed for $250 and it's "under contract" for $220, and they had waves of people going in and out, took them almost 2 months to get an offer.

In fairness, that place was maybe $120k in the mid 2010s. No way it's genuinely worth anything like $220k.

Florida's peak sales are in the winter, not the summer, since that's when the most snowbirds and visitors are here. So it should drop off more in the Summer.

ad says

It is listed for sale, but lets see what price it sells at, if it does sell.

Sales volume has been significantly decreasing.

A lot of potential buyers may wait this out as buyers do this based on them expecting a deflationary environment.

Ultimately, wage growth needs to catch up with housing cost inflation to realize a more affordable housing market.

One way to track that is home price to household income ratio.

A 30 year mortgage rate of 3% allows for that ratio to be around 5. Now that ratio should be no more than 4.

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That’s assuming no other debt. Auto loans, credit cards, adult toys (boats and stuff like that for the perverts) etc.

I stick to the 3 ratio no matter what. And I’d go lower than that if interest rates exceed 10% IF I had to buy for employment or whatever reason. But even current income and job situation I’m not spending $1m on a house.

Where I lived the real estate surely did not collapse, rather the opposite.

Florida has a few areas which are pretty nice and the guys from NYC, NJ, CT and elsewhere have discovered them.

If anyone planning to live or move in near future away from urban areas, it’s still a great opportunity to buy ideally mostly with cash. Given this never ending QE under different types, the high inflation never stops.
Sadly, gov numbers are comical if you live near coasts or expensive urban areas any point in time. Stop wasting your time. There is one thing I learned after observing for long time not only just US but elsewhere, cash has been always trash.

Black Rock is buying up houses in Florida and putting them up for double and triple. Eventually a strawman company will buy it, locking in the price of that neighborhood. When everyone else starts putting houses up for sale at 3 and 4 times the asking price. Nobody will even show up to put in an offer. So Blackrock will get it by offering a more reasonable price absent of any other would be buyers they'll get it. This is how they acquire whole neighborhoods.

Tenpoundbass says

Black Rock is buying up houses in Florida and putting them up for double and triple. Eventually a strawman company will buy it, locking in the price of that neighborhood. When everyone else starts putting houses up for sale at 3 and 4 times the asking price. Nobody will even show up to put in an offer. So Blackrock will get it by offering a more reasonable price absent of any other would be buyers they'll get it. This is how they acquire whole neighborhoods.

You probably meant to say Blackstone. These are the guys in the rental business.

Black Rock, Black Water, and Black Stone, anyone seeing a pattern here?

Tenpoundbass says

Black Rock, Black Water, and Black Stone, anyone seeing a pattern here?

Blackwater hasn't been a thing for a long time. Changed names at least 2 times already.

After the real estate market collapsed in 2008, money on the secondary market (about 95% of all home mortgages) completely disappeared. The Federal Reserve stepped in to rescue the housing market by purchasing up to $80 Billion per month in Mortgage Backed Securities (MBS).
Unbelievably, this went on for 10 years, and the Fed is still in the MBS business.

After artificially keeping interest rates at historic lows, the geniuses at the Fed are now attempting to play catch up by raising rates. The result of the Real Estate Bubble 2? Ongoing price drops, the return of upside down mortgages, walk aways, and millions of homes that will be foreclosed upon. In short, another collapse that will be far worse than 2008 debacle.

RayAmerica says

After the real estate market collapsed in 2008, money on the secondary market (about 95% of all home mortgages) completely disappeared. The Federal Reserve stepped in to rescue the housing market by purchasing up to $80 Billion per month in Mortgage Backed Securities (MBS).
Unbelievably, this went on for 10 years, and the Fed is still in the MBS business.

After artificially keeping interest rates at historic lows, the geniuses at the Fed are now attempting to play catch up by raising rates. The result of the Real Estate Bubble 2? Ongoing price drops, the return of upside down mortgages, walk aways, and millions of homes that will be foreclosed upon. In short, another collapse that will be far worse than 2008 debacle.

I call bullshit.

Brilliant response. Care to elaborate?

RayAmerica says

Brilliant response. Care to elaborate?

No, I'm just putting it out there.

Tenpoundbass says

Black Rock is buying up houses in Florida and putting them up for double and triple.

Also Invitation Homes Inc

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https://www.reddit.com/r/florida/comments/1266ujb/i_cant_afford_to_live_here_anymore_whats_everyone/

I can't afford to live here anymore. What's everyone else doing about it?

My homeowners insurance is now $5000/yr, flood $6000/ yr. I had flood and homeowners claims with hurricane Ian. Taxes also increased another $1000/ year. My mortgage interest rate is low, but it doesn't matter when I can't afford taxes and insurance. I want to leave because i cant afford this. However, my family is all here in Florida and I want to stay a part of their lives. I know I'm not alone. I feel so stressed and defeated. What is everyone else doing?

zzyzzx says

My homeowners insurance is now $5000/yr, flood $6000/ yr.

A $5000 annual HO-3 policy means their home is likely worth at least $800,000. And they have to live within a 100 year flood plain or zone to be paying $6000 a year for flood insurance.

I pay $1550 a year for HO-3 and $500 a year for FEMA flood insurance for a $300,000 townhome (3bedrm, 2.5 bath, 2 car garage) built in 2016 and is 2 miles from the beach in the Florida panhandle.

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The problem with central and north Florida lofty RE prices. Their market is based on those in the big markets, selling their house for big profits, and their exit plan it to move to a Central or North Florida town. But what has been attractive about that model was the retiree atmosphere there, and those houses have been below 200K. When it gets over that, what in the fuck am I going to sell my South Florida crap shack for $500 to $700K only to have to move to a back water Central Florida town and have to pay $500 to $700?

Exactly, TPB.

We're in the denial phase, where homesellers and especially "I wanna downsize and retire" types are hoping things "Get back to normal" over the next year with the interest rates.

In about 6-12 months, it'll be panic phase, as housesellers start cutting 5% a month to try to be first to dump.

There is no housing shortage in the mid/upper tiers. All the shortage is in 2 bed, 1-1.5 baths. The housing stock no longer reflects modern needs.

SINK/DINK/SMOKEM millfucks and empty nest boomers don't need more than 2-3 beds. Most of the zero lots and the old 60s-2000s era suburban homes are designed for 4-person families.

SMOKEM: Single Moms One Kid Entering Middleage

By 2030, 40% of Women over 30 will be single and childless, and 30% will be SMOKEM

cisTits says

in a job market that is collapsing harder than it is for tech.

If you can't get a job you're a common retard. That's all. Companies are paying bonuses even if you're not in the field or have a college degree. They need humans to work. I can sign a $10k bonus offer in a week for a whole plethora of real, non-BS jobs. Most tech jobs are shit so managers don't have to do the work.

Some of you guys live in la la land. Maybe it's your region or you're bitching about your luck. I think pretty much most users here (not all) are within 100 miles of a coast. You don't live in the reality the rest of the country does.

No one needs to move besides for work. Most mortgages outside of the last year are all still low interest or paid off. So even if they have to sell they'll be fine. Sales volume drops when interest rates rise. I mean come on, this isn't brain surgery. Investors won't sell because they're cash flowing, so just keep the building/unit/commercial space. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=122RU




https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MSPUS

The prices are crashing in YOUR location. Just because you're down on your luck value wise in your area and don't have the cash to make a move, doesn't mean people aren't doing well elsewhere. We're literally below the inventory trend line in fucking spring selling season to get in a house by summer and a touch above the trend line for median sales price.

IL had its exodus. You guys in CA are just starting to feel it. Sorry. It's not that way everywhere else. Interest rates will stall appreciation, but this isn't a crash unless Biden or the FED completely fuck something up. Which is 70% likely. Have the gun powder ready, but this will be nothing like 2006-8. High floor on price drops, if any in most areas.