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9   1337irr   2023 Jun 11, 6:28pm  



What do you all make of the options for ACI if they are getting bought at $34.10 a share and the deal closes in 2024?
10   Eman   2023 Jun 11, 7:30pm  

1337irr says



What do you all make of the options for ACI if they are getting bought at $34.10 a share and the deal closes in 2024?

Since a dividend of $6.85 was paid out in January, the expected deal closing price of $27.25 sometime in 2024. If you want to buy options, you’ll have to buy Jan 2025. The spreads on these call options are very wide, which means lack of liquidity.

If I’m a betting man, I’d buy $25/$27 debit call spreads for 40 cents or so. Gamble 40 cents for a chance to win $1.60 if the deal closes. High chance the deal will close if it gets approved, which seems to be the biggest hurdle.


11   1337irr   2023 Jun 11, 7:57pm  

@Eman makes sense given the regulatory concern is the biggest hold for ACI. I'm just going to buy shares and sell covered calls. Thanks!

On a side note, another company I invest in, UNFI, may spinoff their grocery stores. I wonder if Albertson & UNFI will team up on that end. UNFI owns Cubs.
12   Eman   2023 Jun 11, 9:16pm  

1337irr says

Eman makes sense given the regulatory concern is the biggest hold for ACI. I'm just going to buy shares and sell covered calls. Thanks!

On a side note, another company I invest in, UNFI, may spinoff their grocery stores. I wonder if Albertson & UNFI will team up on that end. UNFI owns Cubs.

This is a viable option. Collecting 2.4% dividend while selling covered calls and rolling it up and out if need be. I don’t know much about this stock. Good luck.
13   1337irr   2023 Aug 19, 10:35pm  

I think the merger is on...Lina Khan of the FTC is too busy with other things like breaking up Amazon, Meta, etc. She's not going to break-up a grocery store merger. I should probably buy some calls on ACI.

https://www.city-journal.org/article/ftc-chair-lina-khan-fails-upward

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/amazon-antitrust-suit-lina-khan-ftc/
15   1337irr   2023 Oct 14, 7:59pm  

WASHINGTON, Oct 12 (Reuters) - California Attorney General Rob Bonta said on Thursday that his office was concerned about Kroger's (KR.N) proposed deal to buy rival Albertsons (ACI.N) for $24.5 billion, and may sue to stop it. Bonta said the decision has not been made, but added: "Right now there's not a lot of reason not to sue." Bonta cited as concerns the prospect of higher prices for consumers, lower payments to California farmers, the potential for creating food deserts and possible adverse impacts on workers.

https://www.reuters.com/markets/deals/california-ag-says-he-may-sue-stop-kroger-buying-albertsons-2023-10-12/
16   AD   2023 Oct 14, 9:19pm  

1337irr says

Bonta cited as concerns the prospect of higher prices for consumers, lower payments to California farmers, the potential for creating food deserts and possible adverse impacts on workers.


Albertsons website states there are 124 Albertsons in California.

What are its nearby competitors other than Kroger ?

I do notice even in Florida panhandle that Dollar General has a grocery food section with fruits, vegetables, freezer section for chicken and fish, milk, eggs, etc.

Here in the Florida panhandle it is Walmart and its Sams Club, Publix, Winn Dixie and Piggly Wiggly, as well as Dollar General is starting to get in on grocery supplies.

,,,,
17   ForcedTQ   2023 Oct 14, 11:10pm  

ad says

1337irr says


Bonta cited as concerns the prospect of higher prices for consumers, lower payments to California farmers, the potential for creating food deserts and possible adverse impacts on workers.


Albertsons website states there are 124 Albertsons in California.

What are its nearby competitors other than Kroger ?

I do notice even in Florida panhandle that Dollar General has a grocery food section with fruits, vegetables, freezer section for chicken and fish, milk, eggs, etc.

Here in the Florida panhandle it is Walmart and its Sams Club, Publix, Winn Dixie and Piggly Wiggly, as well as Dollar General is starting to get in on grocery supplies.

,,,,


Raley’s, Safeway, Savemart, FoodsCo are some of the bigger ones. But I think Aldi actually owns Safeway/Vons and Albertsons so strike them as a competitor I guess.
18   Tenpoundbass   2023 Oct 15, 8:50am  

Albertsons' current stock price of $21.20 implies 29% upside if the merger goes through (as the current price excludes the $6.85 special dividend) and suggests that the market doubts the merger will proceed.


Albertsons Companies Inc - Class A
As of October 13, 2023 • 4:00 PM EDT
NYSE: ACI
22.40

Well it hasn't lost money.
19   AD   2023 Oct 15, 12:51pm  

ticker : ACI
.



.
20   zzyzzx   2023 Oct 17, 10:49am  

1337irr says

Camden is a Class A multifamily operator in many well known cities. It should do fine.


P/E is over 50.
21   fdhfoiehfeoi   2023 Nov 28, 6:14am  

"Yes, it is true, interest rates will decline, but not because the Fed did its job to slow inflation, but because the economy and stock market drop so hard into dangerous depths, that markets seek refuge in fixed interest rate instruments, such as U.S. Treasuries, and the Fed follows by necessity. This is our future - again. Not going to avoid it.

-Dr. Robert McHugh
22   1337irr   2023 Dec 14, 8:25am  

There is a high likelyhood ACI will jump to $26ish because the FTC hasn't done anything and the deal is supposed to start closing around the 15th.

https://cowboystatedaily.com/2023/12/06/kroger-forcing-ftcs-hand-to-approve-25-billion-merger-with-albertsons/

If that's the case, I'm rolling funds into ADMA.
23   AD   2023 Dec 14, 10:32am  

S&P 500 only about 150 points below its all time high set in late 2021 ....

Santa Claus rally

...
24   AD   2023 Dec 14, 10:45am  

NuttBoxer says


"Yes, it is true, interest rates will decline, but not because the Fed did its job to slow inflation, but because the economy and stock market drop so hard into dangerous depths, that markets seek refuge in fixed interest rate instruments, such as U.S. Treasuries, and the Fed follows by necessity. This is our future - again. Not going to avoid it.”

-Dr. Robert McHugh


yep as long as the stock market exists, there will always be cycles and asset rotations

so what pops next year that has been beaten down in 2022 to 2023 ? banks and healthcare stocks ?

i am expecting the 30 yr rate mortgage to drop next year as mortgage note holders will still get at least a 2% real return annually with 30 yr mortgage rates around 5.5%.

.
25   AD   2023 Dec 25, 8:04pm  

What do you all think of 3M ?

Its at 2013 price levels and down about 60% from its all time high in 2018. It is only up about 10% from 2007.

It has a dividend of 5.6%.

.
26   mell   2023 Dec 28, 2:03pm  

1337irr says

There is a high likelyhood ACI will jump to $26ish because the FTC hasn't done anything and the deal is supposed to start closing around the 15th.

https://cowboystatedaily.com/2023/12/06/kroger-forcing-ftcs-hand-to-approve-25-billion-merger-with-albertsons/

If that's the case, I'm rolling funds into ADMA.

ADMA chart looking pretty sweet, on autopilot here :)
27   AmericanKulak   2023 Dec 28, 2:14pm  

I guess mid 20s P/E ratios are the new normal, until "nobody could have foreseen"
28   1337irr   2024 Jan 2, 8:12pm  

I said screw it with ACI and the FTC, and jumped onto the ADMA bandwagon. Looking hard at SPOT and BROS because I got my bros to buy it :)
29   mell   2024 Jan 9, 9:12am  

1337irr says

I said screw it with ACI and the FTC, and jumped onto the ADMA bandwagon. Looking hard at SPOT and BROS because I got my bros to buy it :)

ADMA is a beauty, marching on Northbound

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