patrick.net

Isn't housing going down for next few years ?

They may have great div but if stock goes down it will not net much. Real question is when is best time to buy reits and which ones.

KgK one says

They may have great div but if stock goes down it will not net much. Real question is when is best time to buy reits and which ones.

Camden is a Class A multifamily operator in many well known cities. It should do fine.

1337irr says

Camden is a Class A multifamily operator in many well known cities. It should do fine.

You may be right, not wanting to argue, but I don't see much in cities going well through 2024-25. They might be able to pick up some deals, but if they don't have the cashflow to sustain it could get ugly. I wouldn't want to be in any major metro area. People are leaving and it will continues as the election cycle crime picks up.

If Trump is the nominee expect massive riots and disruption. Especially if the polls look like shit for the Dem nominee. Fact Biden hasn't even announced at this point is opening the floodgates of shit. Let's put it that way.

WookieMan says

If Trump is the nominee expect massive riots and disruption. Especially if the polls look like shit for the Dem nominee. Fact Biden hasn't even announced at this point is opening the floodgates of shit. Let's put it that way.

They're already working on the next Floyd.

1337irr says

Camden is a Class A multifamily operator in many well known cities. It should do fine.

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It is at same stock price as it was in early 2020. Low P/E of only 17.7 and a dividend yield of 3.75%

GuruFocus gives it a very high GF rank of 87 out of 100, which the ranking is based on profitability, growth, momentum, valuation, and financial health.

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Friendly reminder about REITs like CPT.
While most REIT dividends are taxable as ordinary income, they also get one very valuable tax break for investors who qualify. It all comes back to a REIT's fundamental form as an investor-owned real estate portfolio.
Specifically, REIT dividends are generally considered to be pass-through income, similar to money earned by an LLC and passed through to its owners. The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act created a tax deduction called the qualified business income deduction, or QBI deduction for short. Often referred to as the pass-through deduction, this allows taxpayers to deduct as much as 20% of their income that comes from pass-through sources. And ordinary income distributions from REITs qualify.

What do you all make of the options for ACI if they are getting bought at $34.10 a share and the deal closes in 2024?

1337irr says

What do you all make of the options for ACI if they are getting bought at $34.10 a share and the deal closes in 2024?

Since a dividend of $6.85 was paid out in January, the expected deal closing price of $27.25 sometime in 2024. If you want to buy options, you’ll have to buy Jan 2025. The spreads on these call options are very wide, which means lack of liquidity.

If I’m a betting man, I’d buy $25/$27 debit call spreads for 40 cents or so. Gamble 40 cents for a chance to win $1.60 if the deal closes. High chance the deal will close if it gets approved, which seems to be the biggest hurdle.

@Eman makes sense given the regulatory concern is the biggest hold for ACI. I'm just going to buy shares and sell covered calls. Thanks!

On a side note, another company I invest in, UNFI, may spinoff their grocery stores. I wonder if Albertson & UNFI will team up on that end. UNFI owns Cubs.

1337irr says

Eman makes sense given the regulatory concern is the biggest hold for ACI. I'm just going to buy shares and sell covered calls. Thanks!

On a side note, another company I invest in, UNFI, may spinoff their grocery stores. I wonder if Albertson & UNFI will team up on that end. UNFI owns Cubs.

This is a viable option. Collecting 2.4% dividend while selling covered calls and rolling it up and out if need be. I don’t know much about this stock. Good luck.

I think the merger is on...Lina Khan of the FTC is too busy with other things like breaking up Amazon, Meta, etc. She's not going to break-up a grocery store merger. I should probably buy some calls on ACI.

https://www.city-journal.org/article/ftc-chair-lina-khan-fails-upward

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/amazon-antitrust-suit-lina-khan-ftc/

https://www.supermarketnews.com/retail-financial/kroger-albertsons-may-sell-stores-cs-wholesale-grocers-anticipation-merger-deal

WASHINGTON, Oct 12 (Reuters) - California Attorney General Rob Bonta said on Thursday that his office was concerned about Kroger's (KR.N) proposed deal to buy rival Albertsons (ACI.N) for $24.5 billion, and may sue to stop it. Bonta said the decision has not been made, but added: "Right now there's not a lot of reason not to sue." Bonta cited as concerns the prospect of higher prices for consumers, lower payments to California farmers, the potential for creating food deserts and possible adverse impacts on workers.

https://www.reuters.com/markets/deals/california-ag-says-he-may-sue-stop-kroger-buying-albertsons-2023-10-12/

1337irr says

Bonta cited as concerns the prospect of higher prices for consumers, lower payments to California farmers, the potential for creating food deserts and possible adverse impacts on workers.

Albertsons website states there are 124 Albertsons in California.

What are its nearby competitors other than Kroger ?

I do notice even in Florida panhandle that Dollar General has a grocery food section with fruits, vegetables, freezer section for chicken and fish, milk, eggs, etc.

Here in the Florida panhandle it is Walmart and its Sams Club, Publix, Winn Dixie and Piggly Wiggly, as well as Dollar General is starting to get in on grocery supplies.

,,,,

ad says

1337irr says

Bonta cited as concerns the prospect of higher prices for consumers, lower payments to California farmers, the potential for creating food deserts and possible adverse impacts on workers.

Albertsons website states there are 124 Albertsons in California.

What are its nearby competitors other than Kroger ?

I do notice even in Florida panhandle that Dollar General has a grocery food section with fruits, vegetables, freezer section for chicken and fish, milk, eggs, etc.

Here in the Florida panhandle it is Walmart and its Sams Club, Publix, Winn Dixie and Piggly Wiggly, as well as Dollar General is starting to get in on grocery supplies.

,,,,

Raley’s, Safeway, Savemart, FoodsCo are some of the bigger ones. But I think Aldi actually owns Safeway/Vons and Albertsons so strike them as a competitor I guess.

Albertsons' current stock price of $21.20 implies 29% upside if the merger goes through (as the current price excludes the $6.85 special dividend) and suggests that the market doubts the merger will proceed.

Albertsons Companies Inc - Class A
As of October 13, 2023 • 4:00 PM EDT
NYSE: ACI
22.40

Well it hasn't lost money.

ticker : ACI
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1337irr says

Camden is a Class A multifamily operator in many well known cities. It should do fine.

P/E is over 50.

"Yes, it is true, interest rates will decline, but not because the Fed did its job to slow inflation, but because the economy and stock market drop so hard into dangerous depths, that markets seek refuge in fixed interest rate instruments, such as U.S. Treasuries, and the Fed follows by necessity. This is our future - again. Not going to avoid it.”

-Dr. Robert McHugh

There is a high likelyhood ACI will jump to $26ish because the FTC hasn't done anything and the deal is supposed to start closing around the 15th.

https://cowboystatedaily.com/2023/12/06/kroger-forcing-ftcs-hand-to-approve-25-billion-merger-with-albertsons/

If that's the case, I'm rolling funds into ADMA.

S&P 500 only about 150 points below its all time high set in late 2021 ....

Santa Claus rally

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NuttBoxer says

"Yes, it is true, interest rates will decline, but not because the Fed did its job to slow inflation, but because the economy and stock market drop so hard into dangerous depths, that markets seek refuge in fixed interest rate instruments, such as U.S. Treasuries, and the Fed follows by necessity. This is our future - again. Not going to avoid it.”

-Dr. Robert McHugh

yep as long as the stock market exists, there will always be cycles and asset rotations

so what pops next year that has been beaten down in 2022 to 2023 ? banks and healthcare stocks ?

i am expecting the 30 yr rate mortgage to drop next year as mortgage note holders will still get at least a 2% real return annually with 30 yr mortgage rates around 5.5%.

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What do you all think of 3M ?

Its at 2013 price levels and down about 60% from its all time high in 2018. It is only up about 10% from 2007.

It has a dividend of 5.6%.

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1337irr says

There is a high likelyhood ACI will jump to $26ish because the FTC hasn't done anything and the deal is supposed to start closing around the 15th.

https://cowboystatedaily.com/2023/12/06/kroger-forcing-ftcs-hand-to-approve-25-billion-merger-with-albertsons/

If that's the case, I'm rolling funds into ADMA.

ADMA chart looking pretty sweet, on autopilot here :)

I guess mid 20s P/E ratios are the new normal, until "nobody could have foreseen"

I said screw it with ACI and the FTC, and jumped onto the ADMA bandwagon. Looking hard at SPOT and BROS because I got my bros to buy it :)

1337irr says

I said screw it with ACI and the FTC, and jumped onto the ADMA bandwagon. Looking hard at SPOT and BROS because I got my bros to buy it :)

ADMA is a beauty, marching on Northbound