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Why the US Housing Market hasn't Crashed yet (repeat of 2008?)


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2023 Jul 20, 6:56pm   4,095 views  43 comments

by Cash   ➕follow (1)   💰tip   ignore  

We're now over one year into a US Housing Downturn that started in the middle of 2022, when a combination of sky-high prices, rising interest rates, and an economic slowdown triggered a massive collapse in homebuyer demand that is still ongoing in the middle of 2023.

But despite this collapse in buyer demand, home prices have remained resilient, only declining by 1% YoY on a national basis, and up to 15% in the hardest hit markets. To date, the decline in the Housing Market registers more as a modest correction rather than a crash.

This slow pace of initial price declines is now leading many homebuyers and real estate investors to believe that the Housing Market won't ever crash, and that we'll be stuck with high prices into the foreseeable future.

Is this true? Well, let's look into the data, step by step, so you as a homebuyer or investor can uncover truth about when this Housing Market will crash.

8 data points
https://www.reventure.app/blog/why-the-us-housing-market-hasnt-crashed-yet-repeat-of-2008

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20   RC2006   2023 Jul 21, 7:06pm  

Inflation. If your dollar goes down by % in value hard assets go up %. Housing and stocks should have crashed multiple times the last ten years but at each point market was manipulated by rates and inflation.
21   HeadSet   2023 Jul 21, 7:19pm  

RC2006 says

Housing and stocks should have crashed multiple times the last ten years

Or at least adjusted.
22   GreaterNYCDude   2023 Jul 21, 10:33pm  

The past 20 years have been an anomaly. Low rates, low inflation, even with a few recessions along the way. Now the pendulum has swung back. Historically rates average well above 5% and housing prices are 4.5x ones average income.

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MORTGAGE30US/

https://www.longtermtrends.net/home-price-median-annual-income-ratio/

Now that rates are 6% (or more) one would THINK prices should drop but there has been a combination of institutional investors entering the market AND a lack of sellers for reasons cited above.

Prices may not go up much more in the next 1 to 3 years, and may well stay flat, but the market won't return to "normal" (if it ever does) until wages rise, and I don't see that happening anytime soon, particularly with inflation "cooling off" relative to where it was six months or a year ago. It gives companies an excuse to limit wage growth.

If inflation. Is "only" 4% then you can't expect a 5% raise, unless you have a solid union behind you.
23   AD   2023 Jul 22, 12:33am  

GreaterNYCDude says

If inflation. Is "only" 4% then you can't expect a 5% raise, unless you have a solid union behind you.


yeah, that is why you got to make your savings work for you such as put it in a total stock market index fund

also work a side gig such as 90 minutes of working online surveys while watching TV at night ...that can earn you about $10 for 90 minutes...

earn $200 a month and save that also in an index fund to increase your income which compensates for your wage increases not keeping up with housing cost increases..

.
24   GNL   2023 Jul 22, 6:13am  

RC2006 says

Inflation. If your dollar goes down by % in value hard assets go up %. Housing and stocks should have crashed multiple times the last ten years but at each point market was manipulated by rates and inflation.

Our entire economy is fake and manipulated. IMO
25   DOGEWontAmountToShit   2023 Jul 22, 7:54am  

ad says

No desperate sellers... home builders are careful to not add a glut of housing ...


Yes they are desperate. They just can't afford to buy another house with a 7% mortgage.

Home builders have been adding. Just not much in Califirnia. And they are being forced to lower their prices or finance with rate downs (5% builders financed mortgages).
26   HeadSet   2023 Jul 22, 8:31am  

Trollhole says

And they are being forced to lower their prices or finance with rate downs

Anyone here remember the "3-2-1 buydowns" of the 1980s?
27   GNL   2023 Jul 22, 9:38am  

Rubicon says


Do you know a better economy or country than the US?

Ok, so as long as it's the best horse in the glue factory, all is good? That's aiming low. Manipulation = corruption. So, are you saying corruption is ok as long as it isn't as corrupt as the others? I assure you, this government is corrupt to the bone. If something doesn't change, you ain't seen nothing yet.
28   GNL   2023 Jul 22, 11:21am  

Is that why the country you came from is a shithole?
29   GNL   2023 Jul 22, 11:43am  

This country is sinking like a turd but who cares as long as its better than the rest. LMAO
30   GNL   2023 Jul 22, 1:01pm  

Rubicon says

One key to success is to look at what’s possible. Aim high and work hard. Bitching and complaining is easier than getting your lazy ass up - i get that. Some
Get up in the morning blaming others. I get up in the morning seeing lots of opportunities to make it big in this awesome country. Let’s go 🇺🇸

Bitches and complainers usually do the blue collar jobs. Someone has to do it until we can replace them with robots.

Don't put words in people's mouths. That's gaslighting.
31   FortwayeAsFuckJoeBiden   2023 Jul 22, 9:57pm  

Rubicon says

One key to success is to look at what’s possible. Aim high and work hard. Bitching and complaining is easier than getting your lazy ass up - i get that. Some
Get up in the morning blaming others. I get up in the morning seeing lots of opportunities to make it big in this awesome country. Let’s go 🇺🇸

Bitches and complainers usually do the blue collar jobs. Someone has to do it until we can replace them with robots.


just so you understand, disdain for blue collar is how america went downhill. there were years when blue collar single income could provide for family
32   AD   2023 Jul 22, 10:12pm  

GNL says

This country is sinking like a turd but who cares as long as its better than the rest. LMAO


There are ways to notice if not measure this such as crime stats (assuming they are comprehensive and authentic) as well as standard of living metrics ike following Rent to Household Income Ratio.

Are things that we took for granted such as reliable electricity and a good doctor something of the past ?

Are there rolling blackouts ? Is it hard to get an appointment to a good family doctor ?

.
33   GNL   2023 Jul 23, 4:47am  

Rubicon says

Sry bud, wasn’t meant as gaslighting. Just some good advice / life lesson.

Patrick.net is probably 100% way above average on the income/wealth/IQ scale but, yeah, be sure to school us.
34   GNL   2023 Jul 23, 4:50am  

ad says


GNL says


This country is sinking like a turd but who cares as long as its better than the rest. LMAO


There are ways to notice if not measure this such as crime stats (assuming they are comprehensive and authentic) as well as standard of living metrics ike following Rent to Household Income Ratio.

Are things that we took for granted such as reliable electricity and a good doctor something of the past ?

Are there rolling blackouts ? Is it hard to get an appointment to a good family doctor ?


Hopefully I'm way off base. I guess if the private sector can avoid following the government's example of eliminating meritocracy and such we can trundle along until blue skies return. The leftists sure are putting in a good day's work on fucking everything up though. My goodness, look at all the damage they are purposely causing. Yes, it is mostly(?) not widespread? I have grandchildren and that it my focus when it comes to thinking about what is coming. Again, hopefully I am wrong. It's the commenters who sing about lollipops lasting forever who I look at as polyannas. No bueno. IMO
35   WookieMan   2023 Jul 23, 9:14am  

GNL says

It's the commenters who sing about lollipops lasting forever who I look at as polyannas. No bueno. IMO

It's the lesser of 256 evils or whatever number of countries it is. CA alone is the 5th largest country GDP wise on its own. Factor in NY, FL, OH, IL, etc. We have 5-7 states that beat the #2 on the list for GDP. We have 45 more with resources that are above anyone.

I wouldn't say everything is great, but there's a floor and a ceiling. Our ceiling is WAAAAAAAAY higher than any other country on this planet. And the floor is also high. Basically, we ain't going anywhere and you're not getting better elsewhere. There are problems for sure, don't get me wrong. Corruption and fraud are rampant. Guess what? It's exponentially worse in other countries to their detriment. We participate in it, but we're #1. We're top dog and that ain't changing for at least 2 decades outside of a legit world war which is another impossibility of attacking the US without nukes. Not happening.

Fact is our corruption and manipulation just has to be better than the rest. And it is with our resources, demographics and population. China is screwed bigly. India is a shit hole where the smart migrate out. That's 1/3rd of the world population roughly. Africa is dead. Europe is dying. Russia is a moron. Canada and Mexico rely on us. South America is stagnant. There's zero other areas with positivity. Maybe southeast Asia.

I'm generally negative, but when you look at the broad picture, our situation ain't bad.
36   RedStar   2023 Jul 23, 11:26am  

WookieMan says

I'm generally negative, but when you look at the broad picture, our situation ain't bad.


We are, however, in a rapid political and economic decline, the rate of which is both amazing and terrifying at the same time. Probably just a few elections and a generation away from losing our most important constitutional rights, our freedoms, and our national identity. It's not me I'm scared for...its my kids.

And I'm still waiting for the car market bubble to implode.
37   Maga_Chaos_Monkey   2023 Jul 23, 11:35am  

RedStar says

And I'm still waiting for the car market bubble to implode.


As am I. In 2 weeks my car will be old enough to buy beer.
38   WookieMan   2023 Jul 23, 11:37am  

RedStar says

Probably just a few elections and a generation away from losing our most important constitutional rights, our freedoms, and our national identity. It's not me I'm scared for...its my kids.

I'm not disagreeing, but I think my kids are going to be smarter than me or my parents. Or grandparents. I've got 3 at the age of 10-13. They know exponentially more than I did by that age. We're talking by a lot. I don't know if that's good or bad. My kids piss me off, so not patting them on the back, but the younger generations coming up are smarter than anyone thinks.

That said, females I'm not certain of. I don't know how that plays out. Marriage and family formation which is critical to the future is important. I'm 40. At some point at 80+ I'm probably gonna need help unless I'm that unicorn. So far I'm not certain they have that capacity. My mom is taken care of. We have a plan and we'll take care of it. My MIL is another joke, but whatever. You deal with shit as it's served to you.
39   GNL   2023 Jul 23, 12:22pm  

RedStar says

WookieMan says


I'm generally negative, but when you look at the broad picture, our situation ain't bad.


We are, however, in a rapid political and economic decline, the rate of which is both amazing and terrifying at the same time. Probably just a few elections and a generation away from losing our most important constitutional rights, our freedoms, and our national identity. It's not me I'm scared for...its my kids.

And I'm still waiting for the car market bubble to implode.

This is my concern more than money. Yes, America is still good. But why be content when it's actually getting worse and anyone can see what our politicians are doing?

If we were to go by what the founders of this country did, we would see that wealth is not as important as other things.
40   GNL   2023 Jul 23, 12:40pm  

Not concerned right?

https://twitter.com/ppv_tahoe/status/1664475915886141440

To be followed up with vigilantism? Won't effect you, right?

https://twitter.com/RobberyFaiI/status/1682848614660587520
41   Eman   2023 Jul 23, 4:53pm  

GNL says

Not concerned right?

https://twitter.com/ppv_tahoe/status/1664475915886141440

To be followed up with vigilantism? Won't effect you, right?

https://twitter.com/RobberyFaiI/status/1682848614660587520

The 2nd video clip is likely from Brazil?
42   Eman   2023 Jul 23, 4:54pm  

GNL says

Not concerned right?

https://twitter.com/ppv_tahoe/status/1664475915886141440

To be followed up with vigilantism? Won't effect you, right?

https://twitter.com/RobberyFaiI/status/1682848614660587520

The 1st video, Democrats voted for it. Now, everyone is paying for it. More theft loss = higher prices for everyone else.
43   GNL   2023 Jul 23, 4:57pm  

All true. Let's see what happens if Newsome becomes prez. It's the trajectory of the country that I am concerned about. How does anyone think countries become shitholes? It happens like what we are seeing. We have immigrents tell us exactly this. Anyway, good luck to all. Be good to one another and respect each other. Rich or poor. There are good and bad rich people same as there are good and bad poor people. If you for sure know who those bad people are, well, then do what you got to do. LOL

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