I'm just asking if this is sustainable.
invite response
2023 Aug 15, 6:27pm 8,583 views 75 comments
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2
GreaterNYCDude
2023 Aug 15, 8:01pm
First you don't need 20% down. Yes it's advisable. Yes you avoid PMI, but it's not the right call for all buyers, particularly 1st timers.
Second. (And this was the hardest for me to understand when I was younger). An average salary does not mean one can buy an average price house.
Despite this, I agree with the premise. Housing was overvalued in 2004 and is once again almost 20 years later. As rates rike the "affordability" issue only gets worse.
As much as the knee jerk reaction is higher interest rates should result in lower price, historically that has not happened, at least not at first. If anything there is a slight "melt up" before the fall.
Last summer was the melt up... now we wait.
Personally, I'm expecting a long slow slide, not a drastic drop off like we had in 2008, unless the bottom completely falls out of the economy and uneployment spikes higher.
Second. (And this was the hardest for me to understand when I was younger). An average salary does not mean one can buy an average price house.
Despite this, I agree with the premise. Housing was overvalued in 2004 and is once again almost 20 years later. As rates rike the "affordability" issue only gets worse.
As much as the knee jerk reaction is higher interest rates should result in lower price, historically that has not happened, at least not at first. If anything there is a slight "melt up" before the fall.
Last summer was the melt up... now we wait.
Personally, I'm expecting a long slow slide, not a drastic drop off like we had in 2008, unless the bottom completely falls out of the economy and uneployment spikes higher.
3
richwicks
2023 Aug 15, 8:02pm
richwicks
2023 Aug 15, 8:02pm
Rubicon says
You don't know any blue collar workers, do you?
Nope, it’s not 49% of YOUR income. Which household makes 56k a year?? Those that claim they only make 56k per year likely have two additional jobs where they get paid under the table.
You don't know any blue collar workers, do you?
5
GNL
2023 Aug 15, 8:09pm
GNL
2023 Aug 15, 8:09pm
Rubicon says
You're contesting the averages? Are his numbers incorrect? Out of curiosity, what's the average income and home price in the Bay area?
Nope, it’s not 49% of YOUR income. Which household makes 56k a year?? Those that claim they only make 56k per year likely have two additional jobs where they get paid under the table. Come on now, in the Bay Area you are considered poverty level if you make 100k per year. In areas where you get by with 56k house prices won’t be anywhere near 400k.
You're contesting the averages? Are his numbers incorrect? Out of curiosity, what's the average income and home price in the Bay area?
6
GNL
2023 Aug 15, 8:19pm
GNL
2023 Aug 15, 8:19pm
Rubicon says
I think the point is the economic future of America is not so clear? Rubicon, why do you sound so angry? I thought $$ makes everyone smarter, better looking and happier. More $$ never did those things for me though.
You are missing the point.
There is no law that says that schmuck avg joe should or must afford a house. Median income doesn’t mean anything. In other countries the majority of people are life long renters. Just here in the US people think they deserve or are entitled to own their own house. If you make no more than the median household income you likely will never own and you are fucked. Paycheck to paycheck is your future.
I think the point is the economic future of America is not so clear? Rubicon, why do you sound so angry? I thought $$ makes everyone smarter, better looking and happier. More $$ never did those things for me though.
7
GreaterNYCDude
2023 Aug 15, 10:23pm
GNL says
Called posting while tired and not proof reading. Should have read
An average salary does not mean one can buy an average price house.
The lower end of the income range does not have the means to buy, causing the average price to be more than what an average salary can "afford".
That said the market is, once again, out of whack in most areas, particularly on the costs. 20 years on, similar story as before.
GreaterNYCDude says
prictimes
What is that?
Called posting while tired and not proof reading. Should have read
An average salary does not mean one can buy an average price house.
The lower end of the income range does not have the means to buy, causing the average price to be more than what an average salary can "afford".
That said the market is, once again, out of whack in most areas, particularly on the costs. 20 years on, similar story as before.
8
richwicks
2023 Aug 15, 10:25pm
richwicks
2023 Aug 15, 10:25pm
Rubicon says
HAHAHA!
No, it's not that at all.
Is that the fittest? No, that's just a regular thug of the mafia. As long as you think the system is fine, we'll have this fucking corrupt system.
As if we're in capitalism! The intelligence agencies made certain the Google, Twitter, and Facebook was "the internet". It's not but Google will never find any video on Bitchute, or Rumble, you can't link to those on Twitter, you can't talk about them on Facebook. Why do you think that is?
We have a kleptocracy, rule by the criminals. Survival of the fittest, sure, if you're mafia. The Sackler Family addicted a good portion of the United States to their drug, Oxycontin, which they FALSELY claimed wasn't addictive. What they did was hilariously evil, since the "drug wasn't addictive", instead of increasing the frequency doses, they told doctors to increase the level of the dose if the patient was still experiencing pain. This was guaranteed to addict the patient.
Here's a person that is "fit":
What he did, in the 1980's during the "AIDs epidemic" was force AZT to be the ONLY available drug for patients, DOCTORS were not allowed to experiment or try off label drugs. Sound familiar? AZT was a failed chemotherapy drug that didn't pass trials, because it just killed the patients before the cancer could. There's a movie about it, called The Dallas Buyer's club:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dallas_Buyers_Club
Remdesivir is also a failed cancer drug, withdrawn from the market, because it did so much damage to the liver and pancreas.
Both drugs were 100% useless to patients, neither had any efficacy at all, and both were dangerous and have no therapeutic uses.
The "work hard and you'll get ahead" bullshit, is bullshit. Work with and support criminals and you'll get ahead - there's little chance of your prosecution but there's a chance. Work against the criminals, they'll buy you out, kill your, or imprison you. Remember this guy?
He's dead. He tattooed this on his arm:
Just before he was put in prison, and Jeffrey Epsteined.
Survival of the fittest. Hahaha. Survival of the vicious, that's it. Because MOST people are cattle, it's just going to get worse and worse and worse, until it's the Morlocks versus the Eloi. I'd say about 10% of the human race is left. The future is just barbarism.
The problem as I see is is the cattle I once considered human won't open their eyes, or ears - if the state tells them 2+2=3, they'll believe it today, and if they tell them 2+2=5 tomorrow, they'll believe it - and SINCERELY believe it. I cannot be stupid, and I don't think I can be evil, not evil like that. For years our own media reported that Ukraine was the most corrupt country in Europe, that it was filled with modern day Nazis and the next day, their fighting for democracy and freedumb. Overnight, people changed their "minds".
Let's not forget this asshole:
Fittest? That the fittest? HAHAHA.
“I think the point is the economic future of America is not so clear”
It couldn’t be clearer. Survival of the fittest.
HAHAHA!
No, it's not that at all.
Is that the fittest? No, that's just a regular thug of the mafia. As long as you think the system is fine, we'll have this fucking corrupt system.
As if we're in capitalism! The intelligence agencies made certain the Google, Twitter, and Facebook was "the internet". It's not but Google will never find any video on Bitchute, or Rumble, you can't link to those on Twitter, you can't talk about them on Facebook. Why do you think that is?
We have a kleptocracy, rule by the criminals. Survival of the fittest, sure, if you're mafia. The Sackler Family addicted a good portion of the United States to their drug, Oxycontin, which they FALSELY claimed wasn't addictive. What they did was hilariously evil, since the "drug wasn't addictive", instead of increasing the frequency doses, they told doctors to increase the level of the dose if the patient was still experiencing pain. This was guaranteed to addict the patient.
Here's a person that is "fit":
What he did, in the 1980's during the "AIDs epidemic" was force AZT to be the ONLY available drug for patients, DOCTORS were not allowed to experiment or try off label drugs. Sound familiar? AZT was a failed chemotherapy drug that didn't pass trials, because it just killed the patients before the cancer could. There's a movie about it, called The Dallas Buyer's club:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dallas_Buyers_Club
Remdesivir is also a failed cancer drug, withdrawn from the market, because it did so much damage to the liver and pancreas.
Both drugs were 100% useless to patients, neither had any efficacy at all, and both were dangerous and have no therapeutic uses.
The "work hard and you'll get ahead" bullshit, is bullshit. Work with and support criminals and you'll get ahead - there's little chance of your prosecution but there's a chance. Work against the criminals, they'll buy you out, kill your, or imprison you. Remember this guy?
He's dead. He tattooed this on his arm:
Just before he was put in prison, and Jeffrey Epsteined.
Survival of the fittest. Hahaha. Survival of the vicious, that's it. Because MOST people are cattle, it's just going to get worse and worse and worse, until it's the Morlocks versus the Eloi. I'd say about 10% of the human race is left. The future is just barbarism.
The problem as I see is is the cattle I once considered human won't open their eyes, or ears - if the state tells them 2+2=3, they'll believe it today, and if they tell them 2+2=5 tomorrow, they'll believe it - and SINCERELY believe it. I cannot be stupid, and I don't think I can be evil, not evil like that. For years our own media reported that Ukraine was the most corrupt country in Europe, that it was filled with modern day Nazis and the next day, their fighting for democracy and freedumb. Overnight, people changed their "minds".
Let's not forget this asshole:
Fittest? That the fittest? HAHAHA.
9
richwicks
2023 Aug 15, 10:57pm
richwicks
2023 Aug 15, 10:57pm
Rubicon says
I'm just pointing out that short sighted subhumans are making life intolerable for humans.
Who wants to live in a world of cattle and their predators, caught inbetween?
You want some good investment advice? Buy "defense" contractors, and "Big-Tech". They're not going to go bankrupt, both are directly supported by our government. SURE they'll enslave the population and murder people all over the world. Want to be involved with it? Go ahead.
You're being bought off for pennies, and your children and grandchildren, and further will be slaves or dead. We're a young society, run by sociopaths. Instead of reforming it, live it up while you can, no matter what horrific crime is being done. Eventually, our society will become so weak, we'll fall into complete despotism, and the game then will be "work for the government" - pretty close to that already.
I admire societies that engage in long term thinking, the US doesn't do this, Europe doesn't do this. They invite in refugees thinking they'll be docile slaves, they won't be able to control them, and in time, the refugees will exterminate the ones that invited them in. This very well may create chaos, like you see in Zimbabwe and South Africa - the ruling class doesn't care, and the ruling class will be killed off slowly, because there are societies that can organize against power.
Take it or leave it. I don’t believe in blaming the system or politicians or corruption. None of that stuff will improve your situation. It’s a waste of time.
I'm just pointing out that short sighted subhumans are making life intolerable for humans.
Who wants to live in a world of cattle and their predators, caught inbetween?
You want some good investment advice? Buy "defense" contractors, and "Big-Tech". They're not going to go bankrupt, both are directly supported by our government. SURE they'll enslave the population and murder people all over the world. Want to be involved with it? Go ahead.
You're being bought off for pennies, and your children and grandchildren, and further will be slaves or dead. We're a young society, run by sociopaths. Instead of reforming it, live it up while you can, no matter what horrific crime is being done. Eventually, our society will become so weak, we'll fall into complete despotism, and the game then will be "work for the government" - pretty close to that already.
I admire societies that engage in long term thinking, the US doesn't do this, Europe doesn't do this. They invite in refugees thinking they'll be docile slaves, they won't be able to control them, and in time, the refugees will exterminate the ones that invited them in. This very well may create chaos, like you see in Zimbabwe and South Africa - the ruling class doesn't care, and the ruling class will be killed off slowly, because there are societies that can organize against power.
10
PeopleUnited
2023 Aug 16, 4:49am
PeopleUnited
2023 Aug 16, 4:49am
richwicks says
Richard. This is exactly how the Nazis talked. Subhumans were F-ing up the world and they needed to be purged from the earth. But it was a lie then and it is a lie now. The sheep, cattle, whatever you call the “subhumans” blind to their enslavers, they are the victims. They are not making life miserable, they are miserable. It’s the wealthy globalists that are behaving like animals, trading people and treating them like cattle.
richwicks says
That might happen on a small scale, but the global cabal of satanic banksters will not be defeated by their victims. It will take divine intervention to defeat them, and even that won’t come until the death cult elitists have essentially destroyed and enslaved most of the planet. This wealthy totalitarian class are actively working to get rid of anyone they cannot control. We are less than cattle to them.
I'm just pointing out that short sighted subhumans are making life intolerable for humans.
Who wants to live in a world of cattle and their predators, caught inbetween?
Richard. This is exactly how the Nazis talked. Subhumans were F-ing up the world and they needed to be purged from the earth. But it was a lie then and it is a lie now. The sheep, cattle, whatever you call the “subhumans” blind to their enslavers, they are the victims. They are not making life miserable, they are miserable. It’s the wealthy globalists that are behaving like animals, trading people and treating them like cattle.
richwicks says
the ruling class will be killed off slowly,
That might happen on a small scale, but the global cabal of satanic banksters will not be defeated by their victims. It will take divine intervention to defeat them, and even that won’t come until the death cult elitists have essentially destroyed and enslaved most of the planet. This wealthy totalitarian class are actively working to get rid of anyone they cannot control. We are less than cattle to them.
11
GNL
2023 Aug 16, 6:01am
GNL
2023 Aug 16, 6:01am
Well, what can be said? The American ideal is dying and some rejoice. Sad. No, it isn't all about housing and income but the result is shitganistan. I hope I am wrong. Those who have it good (I have it good like many others) don't seem to care about their very own progeny. THAT is sad. @Rubicon has a few(?) houses and thinks he's a Vanderbuilt (the Vanderbuilts actually contributed to society. No, I am not hailing the Vanderbuilts.). Hahaha, history is littered with family names that fell out of $$. No, $$ is not the root of happiness.
How do I know $$ isn't the root of happiness? My daughter married into a very wealthy family. I won't go into too much detail other than to say their family and extended family own much real estate (much) in an area not unlike Martha's Vineyard. Indoor pools, gated mansions, guest houses, celebrity neighbors etc. This is the real estate they own for fun. Many of their children are, in some way, not well.
@Rubicon, are you saying you're comparing yourself to Hunter Biden, Fauci and Sam Bankman? Wow, take a walk on the dark side.
How do I know $$ isn't the root of happiness? My daughter married into a very wealthy family. I won't go into too much detail other than to say their family and extended family own much real estate (much) in an area not unlike Martha's Vineyard. Indoor pools, gated mansions, guest houses, celebrity neighbors etc. This is the real estate they own for fun. Many of their children are, in some way, not well.
@Rubicon, are you saying you're comparing yourself to Hunter Biden, Fauci and Sam Bankman? Wow, take a walk on the dark side.
12
GNL
2023 Aug 16, 6:20am
GNL
2023 Aug 16, 6:20am
Rubicon says
Who has more comments on this thread? You or me? Hahaha. Honestly, I think you're a fraud.
And it won’t get better by being a keyboard warrior.
Who has more comments on this thread? You or me? Hahaha. Honestly, I think you're a fraud.
13
GNL
2023 Aug 16, 7:10am
GNL
2023 Aug 16, 7:10am
You make lots of assumptions. And again, you sound angry. What happened to $$ is the root of all happiness? RE isn't the only path to financial gain. Take a look all around you, lots of people, most even, make lots of money running businesses. Businesses, the entrepreneurs, are the pinnacle of a society. You remind me of a coked-out gambler (who had lots of $$) I knew years ago. She only ever talked about her wins. Never her losses. I'm sure you dollar cost averaged your shitcoin but you only mention when you bought at $4,000. This is what leads me to believe you're a fraud.
Some of us lament the lowering standards of what makes a great society. I assume you come from a shithole country and don't know what it takes to create/maintain a great society.
As far as the intended insult of "keyboard warrior" goes...I have never learned as much as I have until I became engaged in forums on the internet. I've learned a lot about all kinds of topics. I've learned even more about myself and formed entirely new beliefs. It's been a net positive.
Some of us lament the lowering standards of what makes a great society. I assume you come from a shithole country and don't know what it takes to create/maintain a great society.
As far as the intended insult of "keyboard warrior" goes...I have never learned as much as I have until I became engaged in forums on the internet. I've learned a lot about all kinds of topics. I've learned even more about myself and formed entirely new beliefs. It's been a net positive.
14
Bd6r
2023 Aug 16, 7:38am
Bd6r
2023 Aug 16, 7:38am
GNL says
No it is not sustainable . Land prices in rural TX are up three to five-fold. A few acres near Round Rock sell for a million. Fifty unimproved acres near where we bought land two years ago now go for more than a million. This is ridiculous.
Housing video (short)
https://twitter.com/WallStreetSilv/status/1691280922358738944
No it is not sustainable . Land prices in rural TX are up three to five-fold. A few acres near Round Rock sell for a million. Fifty unimproved acres near where we bought land two years ago now go for more than a million. This is ridiculous.
15
PeopleUnited
2023 Aug 16, 7:46am
PeopleUnited
2023 Aug 16, 7:46am
It is ridiculous. But, there are people with essentially bottomless pockets, looking to drive up the cost of everything, so that the average person can’t afford anything.
16
Tenpoundbass
2023 Aug 16, 8:06am
Tenpoundbass
2023 Aug 16, 8:06am
He's way off on that 1995 prices. In 1995 a typical used Burbdale Ranchero house in your typical American non gated suburbs were running $65K on the low end, $97K average end, and $120K on the highish end. .The signs on the highway advertising the new fangled Gated Communities with the new proto McMansions were going for $130 to $190K. I know I was looking and dreaming for a house back then. It shot up over night from 2000 to 2001. I remember doing a carpet job in a house that just a few years early I was wanting to buy for $120K. The guy said he paid $220K it only got crazier every day after that.
17
HeadSet
2023 Aug 16, 8:09am
HeadSet
2023 Aug 16, 8:09am
Rubicon says
You are fortunate. I have found that with Property Managers (PM) that the monthly fee does not include finding a tenant when one moves out, they typically charge 1/2 month's rent to get a new tenant. I also noticed that PMs tend to send out the most expensive repair people. It once cost me $100 to replace a 50 cent toilet flapper. I have seen other instances where a wood picket fence was replaced with non-treated pickets and a roof replacement done without a tear-off, even though a tear-off was charged. The PM companies also want to keep deposits in their accounts, plus collect all rents themselves and send you the remains. Good luck getting your money if the PM company gets in financial trouble. Also, PM companies do not handle legal issues, you will be a "landlord" on the hook and not an "investor" here. I once had 10 rentals and only used a PM for one. Never again. I also know other landlords who will never use PM and advise against it. Exception is one of them who has over a hundred properties, but he owns the PM company.
I think owning rentals is one good way for an average Joe to build wealth but being a landlord is more like a part time job than a passive investment. You also have to take time to acquire these properties and deal with the financing.
As I said, you are very fortunate if you have handed off all efforts at $100 per property
Hey, all y'all on this blog, are any of you landlords with a property manager doing all the lifting? Maybe that works better in California.
I have a PM that charges me $100 per month per rental and deals with this shit.
You are fortunate. I have found that with Property Managers (PM) that the monthly fee does not include finding a tenant when one moves out, they typically charge 1/2 month's rent to get a new tenant. I also noticed that PMs tend to send out the most expensive repair people. It once cost me $100 to replace a 50 cent toilet flapper. I have seen other instances where a wood picket fence was replaced with non-treated pickets and a roof replacement done without a tear-off, even though a tear-off was charged. The PM companies also want to keep deposits in their accounts, plus collect all rents themselves and send you the remains. Good luck getting your money if the PM company gets in financial trouble. Also, PM companies do not handle legal issues, you will be a "landlord" on the hook and not an "investor" here. I once had 10 rentals and only used a PM for one. Never again. I also know other landlords who will never use PM and advise against it. Exception is one of them who has over a hundred properties, but he owns the PM company.
I think owning rentals is one good way for an average Joe to build wealth but being a landlord is more like a part time job than a passive investment. You also have to take time to acquire these properties and deal with the financing.
As I said, you are very fortunate if you have handed off all efforts at $100 per property
Hey, all y'all on this blog, are any of you landlords with a property manager doing all the lifting? Maybe that works better in California.
18
RC2006
2023 Aug 16, 8:12am
First let's get rid of 1995. 2019-2023 Covid and Biden/crazy libs fucked things up in that four year window. You could do the same thing with 1995 2004 2007 except then our economy wasn't wreck by the inflation we have had lat two years.
RC2006
2023 Aug 16, 8:12am
First let's get rid of 1995. 2019-2023 Covid and Biden/crazy libs fucked things up in that four year window. You could do the same thing with 1995 2004 2007 except then our economy wasn't wreck by the inflation we have had lat two years.
19
HeadSet
2023 Aug 16, 8:29am
HeadSet
2023 Aug 16, 8:29am
Rubicon says
Sounds like you did not inherit your fortune. Since this is a real estate blog, would you mind sharing how you acquired your first rental properties and how you got the financing? When I started out, banks would not loan to investors and my first 2 properties were FHA foreclosures that needed a ton of work which I did myself since I could not afford to hire out.
I hated driving a beater car because I had to live frugal and save money.
Sounds like you did not inherit your fortune. Since this is a real estate blog, would you mind sharing how you acquired your first rental properties and how you got the financing? When I started out, banks would not loan to investors and my first 2 properties were FHA foreclosures that needed a ton of work which I did myself since I could not afford to hire out.
20
RWSGFY
2023 Aug 16, 8:29am
RWSGFY
2023 Aug 16, 8:29am
The book I'm listening to right now says that typical PM company charges 1 month rent when they find a tenant and 1 months rent every time that tenant renews the lease. Is this really how it is on the ground? Seems expensive AF.
21
GNL
2023 Aug 16, 8:42am
GNL
2023 Aug 16, 8:42am
Rubicon says
Yet another stupid assed assumption.
You, just like my in-laws always try to find something bad in people who are wealthy.
Yet another stupid assed assumption.
22
RWSGFY
2023 Aug 16, 8:57am
RWSGFY
2023 Aug 16, 8:57am
Rubicon says
Interesting. The book is not CA-specific. The author even explicitly advices against investing in expensive areas.
RWSGFY says
The book I'm listening to right now says that typical PM company charges 1 month rent when they find a tenant and 1 months rent every time that tenant renews the lease. Is this really how it is on the ground? Seems expensive AF.
I don’t pay even close to that. I could see that in CA. But everything is overpriced in CA.
Interesting. The book is not CA-specific. The author even explicitly advices against investing in expensive areas.
23
FortwayeAsFuckJoeBiden
2023 Aug 16, 9:18am
no one has crystal ball, but our entire society is not sustainable.
24
Robert Sproul
2023 Aug 16, 12:50pm
Rubicon says
"Take it or leave it. I don’t believe in blaming the system or politicians or corruption. None of that stuff will improve your situation. It’s a waste of time."
Viktor Frankl
25
RWSGFY
2023 Aug 16, 1:25pm
RWSGFY
2023 Aug 16, 1:25pm
FortwayeAsFuckJoeBiden says
"Long term everybody is dead"
no one has crystal ball, but our entire society is not sustainable.
"Long term everybody is dead"
26
AmericanKulak
2023 Aug 16, 2:03pm
AmericanKulak
2023 Aug 16, 2:03pm
Rubicon says
It's part of the American Dream.
There is no law guaranteeing 1-2+% real estate appreciation or the rule of 72 on the stock market, either, but in a few years when the peak birth year starts needing to downsize/assisted living, and prices collapse, the same investors will be howling the government/fed needs to intervene as they deserve their income and ROI. Sicilian properties are given away for some taxes and repairs, entire islands are abandoned as the government can't support the aged and rapidly declining population on them; once upon a time a modest piece of land in Sicily went for a sack of gold. People couldn't afford it, so the emmigrated to the US, Canada, and Argentina. Once upon a time, suburban Detroit housing was the dream of many.
The same NYT and Economist that tells middle America to suck it up, racists, will be screeching for intervention.
It's coming, demographics are inevitable. The life expectancy for somebody born in the 1950s is the mid 70s. That's life expectancy, not "Assisted Living needs" or "Nursing Home Warehousing" expectancy. People will be in those a few years before they die, they're doing so right now. In less than a decade we're going to have a downsizing-by-neccessity explosion.
"The kids will inherit it"
Some will, some won't. Especially if Mom and Dad boomer brought a new retirement condo/house and there's an outstanding mortgage that Millie the Millennial can't afford with her $40k/year Starbucks income 5 states away from her job. She'll probably sell it if she can and pocket any difference to spend on Boxed Wine and Mexxxx-iii-coo, Girls!. There are millions like her.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XBnQjGGkCuY
Those who can afford it may want to sell as they don't want to be arsed with renting it out, paying for a property manager, etc. Since it's probably not their childhood home in most cases, but Parent's Retirement Home in the Villages, in Arizona, or in Lake Boca Vista, Jerry, they have no sentimental attachment.
The dark secret about immigration, especially in Europe, is it isn't only about controlling demand for wages/workforce but also about filling the rentals which is the top cash flow source of the Elite. If Europe wasn't engaged in mass extreme hyperimmigration, housing costs would be declining YoY for the 2nd decade now.
Don't be fooled by the currently low inventory. There are many thinking they can outwait the high rates, and many are deluded into thinking 3-4% mortgages are the norm. They never were. We're close to the post war average now. That new house prices (as I've mentioned in other posts) are competitive with 30 year old used houses and in many cases, esp. after builder financing and covering closing costs, are cheaper, is a sign of what's coming.
* The Builders are not as optimistic as the Home Loaners waiting to sell are.
* Banks are laying off mortgage personnel
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rWbDRQ0mfbI
* A Demographic begging for $100k student loan relief is not ready to slap $300k-$1M on a place.
You are missing the point.
There is no law that says that schmuck avg joe should or must afford a house. Median income doesn’t mean anything. In other countries the majority of people are life long renters. Just here in the US people think they deserve or are entitled to own their own house. If you make no more than the median household income you likely will never own and you are fucked. Paycheck to paycheck is your future.
It's part of the American Dream.
There is no law guaranteeing 1-2+% real estate appreciation or the rule of 72 on the stock market, either, but in a few years when the peak birth year starts needing to downsize/assisted living, and prices collapse, the same investors will be howling the government/fed needs to intervene as they deserve their income and ROI. Sicilian properties are given away for some taxes and repairs, entire islands are abandoned as the government can't support the aged and rapidly declining population on them; once upon a time a modest piece of land in Sicily went for a sack of gold. People couldn't afford it, so the emmigrated to the US, Canada, and Argentina. Once upon a time, suburban Detroit housing was the dream of many.
The same NYT and Economist that tells middle America to suck it up, racists, will be screeching for intervention.
It's coming, demographics are inevitable. The life expectancy for somebody born in the 1950s is the mid 70s. That's life expectancy, not "Assisted Living needs" or "Nursing Home Warehousing" expectancy. People will be in those a few years before they die, they're doing so right now. In less than a decade we're going to have a downsizing-by-neccessity explosion.
"The kids will inherit it"
Some will, some won't. Especially if Mom and Dad boomer brought a new retirement condo/house and there's an outstanding mortgage that Millie the Millennial can't afford with her $40k/year Starbucks income 5 states away from her job. She'll probably sell it if she can and pocket any difference to spend on Boxed Wine and Mexxxx-iii-coo, Girls!. There are millions like her.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XBnQjGGkCuY
Those who can afford it may want to sell as they don't want to be arsed with renting it out, paying for a property manager, etc. Since it's probably not their childhood home in most cases, but Parent's Retirement Home in the Villages, in Arizona, or in Lake Boca Vista, Jerry, they have no sentimental attachment.
The dark secret about immigration, especially in Europe, is it isn't only about controlling demand for wages/workforce but also about filling the rentals which is the top cash flow source of the Elite. If Europe wasn't engaged in mass extreme hyperimmigration, housing costs would be declining YoY for the 2nd decade now.
Don't be fooled by the currently low inventory. There are many thinking they can outwait the high rates, and many are deluded into thinking 3-4% mortgages are the norm. They never were. We're close to the post war average now. That new house prices (as I've mentioned in other posts) are competitive with 30 year old used houses and in many cases, esp. after builder financing and covering closing costs, are cheaper, is a sign of what's coming.
* The Builders are not as optimistic as the Home Loaners waiting to sell are.
* Banks are laying off mortgage personnel
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rWbDRQ0mfbI
* A Demographic begging for $100k student loan relief is not ready to slap $300k-$1M on a place.
27
RayAmerica
2023 Aug 16, 2:56pm
RayAmerica
2023 Aug 16, 2:56pm
I wasn't going to write about this, but seeing that no one else has touched on this subject, here goes. The boring part that everyone knows about first:
Back when the residential real estate market collapsed in 2008, it did so primarily because of the sloppiness and greed that entered into all facets of the real estate market. Mortgage officers were making a killing not only on new mortgages, but on re-fis, in which the vast majority of homeowners did 'cash-out refis,' receiving cash that had been accumulated via inflation, while believing that prices will continue to rise. In an effort to make even more money, mortgage companies began offering more and more incentives, such as no documentation loans (often referred to as Liar Loans) etc. Appraisers were pressured to 'hit the number,' knowing that if they didn't, they would be ignored when it came to assigning appraisers in the future, which led to a great deal of fudging the numbers. Of course real estate agents went along for the ride. And, don't forget the consumer, who also wanted to 'make a killing' through either buying or selling.
Here's where it gets interesting; prior to this monumental collapse, Mortgage Backed Securities (MBS) were considered to be AAA rated. MBS made up approximately 98% of all home mortgages, which were sold on what is known as the Secondary Market, where large bundles were packaged on Wall Street, and sold to investors for a handling fee. When the collapse hit in 2008 and the rampant fraud was exposed, millions of homeowners, now underwater on their loans, lost their homes, or, simply walked away. As mortgage payments were no longer being paid by millions of people, the investment funds collapsed as well. Quite literally, the Secondary Market completely disappeared, leaving the industry with nowhere to go to sell their mortgages.
The Federal Reserve quietly stepped in and began a program in which they were buying MBS at the rate of $80 Billion per month, and have been doing so (some months are $60 Billion) ever since the collapse in 2008. THAT , and that alone is the explanation for the crazy inflation that we have seen ... virtually all of it fueled by the purchases of MBS by the Fed, which also kept interest rates at historic lows for over 10 years. Now that rates are being forced up by the Fed as a means to control inflation, prices will no doubt fall. IMO, we are going to end up with a catastrophe, probably much worse than that of 2008.
Back when the residential real estate market collapsed in 2008, it did so primarily because of the sloppiness and greed that entered into all facets of the real estate market. Mortgage officers were making a killing not only on new mortgages, but on re-fis, in which the vast majority of homeowners did 'cash-out refis,' receiving cash that had been accumulated via inflation, while believing that prices will continue to rise. In an effort to make even more money, mortgage companies began offering more and more incentives, such as no documentation loans (often referred to as Liar Loans) etc. Appraisers were pressured to 'hit the number,' knowing that if they didn't, they would be ignored when it came to assigning appraisers in the future, which led to a great deal of fudging the numbers. Of course real estate agents went along for the ride. And, don't forget the consumer, who also wanted to 'make a killing' through either buying or selling.
Here's where it gets interesting; prior to this monumental collapse, Mortgage Backed Securities (MBS) were considered to be AAA rated. MBS made up approximately 98% of all home mortgages, which were sold on what is known as the Secondary Market, where large bundles were packaged on Wall Street, and sold to investors for a handling fee. When the collapse hit in 2008 and the rampant fraud was exposed, millions of homeowners, now underwater on their loans, lost their homes, or, simply walked away. As mortgage payments were no longer being paid by millions of people, the investment funds collapsed as well. Quite literally, the Secondary Market completely disappeared, leaving the industry with nowhere to go to sell their mortgages.
The Federal Reserve quietly stepped in and began a program in which they were buying MBS at the rate of $80 Billion per month, and have been doing so (some months are $60 Billion) ever since the collapse in 2008. THAT , and that alone is the explanation for the crazy inflation that we have seen ... virtually all of it fueled by the purchases of MBS by the Fed, which also kept interest rates at historic lows for over 10 years. Now that rates are being forced up by the Fed as a means to control inflation, prices will no doubt fall. IMO, we are going to end up with a catastrophe, probably much worse than that of 2008.
28
richwicks
2023 Aug 16, 3:11pm
richwicks
2023 Aug 16, 3:11pm
PeopleUnited says
Who do you think I'm talking about? Are the people that lied about the pandemic, and created hysteria, and lied to the population for 2 years - are they human? The people that insisted you take an untested vaccine for a disease which 99.9% of the population survived - are they human? The people that have lied us into 7 wars, and are lying about Ukraine now - are they human?
WHO do you think I'm talking about? The Nazis run this country. You know why we go to war, it makes money for defense contractors and a other affiliated contractors.
Those are the predators.
PeopleUnited says
You can't wake them up, I've been trying for 30 years. It's no longer my responsibility. If these people could do basic simple reasoning, we could have stayed out 7 wars, Ukraine would have never happened.
But they continue to listen to known liars and propagandists. Doesn't matter if you point out they are liars and propagandists. People still listen to Rachael Maddow after 4 years of "Russian Collusion", she helped restart the fucking Cold War, people still listen to her - IF they can be considered people.
I don't want to associate myself with the Nazis, who are predators, nor the cattle who are the victims. I'm neither one. We could make use of our incredible technology to improve this world for everything, not just people.
PeopleUnited says
Yes they will. What keeps people supporting this system is they have a stake in it, fighting it, they will lose that stake. When nobody has a stake in it, it will collapse.
Richard. This is exactly how the Nazis talked. Subhumans were F-ing up the world and they needed to be purged from the earth.
Who do you think I'm talking about? Are the people that lied about the pandemic, and created hysteria, and lied to the population for 2 years - are they human? The people that insisted you take an untested vaccine for a disease which 99.9% of the population survived - are they human? The people that have lied us into 7 wars, and are lying about Ukraine now - are they human?
WHO do you think I'm talking about? The Nazis run this country. You know why we go to war, it makes money for defense contractors and a other affiliated contractors.
Those are the predators.
PeopleUnited says
The sheep, cattle, whatever you call the “subhumans” blind to their enslavers, they are the victims.
You can't wake them up, I've been trying for 30 years. It's no longer my responsibility. If these people could do basic simple reasoning, we could have stayed out 7 wars, Ukraine would have never happened.
But they continue to listen to known liars and propagandists. Doesn't matter if you point out they are liars and propagandists. People still listen to Rachael Maddow after 4 years of "Russian Collusion", she helped restart the fucking Cold War, people still listen to her - IF they can be considered people.
I don't want to associate myself with the Nazis, who are predators, nor the cattle who are the victims. I'm neither one. We could make use of our incredible technology to improve this world for everything, not just people.
PeopleUnited says
That might happen on a small scale, but the global cabal of satanic banksters will not be defeated by their victims.
Yes they will. What keeps people supporting this system is they have a stake in it, fighting it, they will lose that stake. When nobody has a stake in it, it will collapse.
30
EBGuy
2023 Aug 16, 3:54pm
RayAmerica says
There was a brief period of time, starting in 2018, when the Fed was actually selling off their MBS holdings. That didn't last long...
The Federal Reserve quietly stepped in and began a program in which they were buying MBS at the rate of $80 Billion per month, and have been doing so (some months are $60 Billion) ever since the collapse in 2008.
There was a brief period of time, starting in 2018, when the Fed was actually selling off their MBS holdings. That didn't last long...
31
EBGuy
2023 Aug 16, 3:59pm
And, interestingly, the Fed was buying COMMERICIAL MBSes at the beginning of the pandemic. Thankfully it is a piddly $8 billion (out of $2.5 trillion of MBSes).
32
Waitup
2023 Aug 16, 4:06pm
Waitup
2023 Aug 16, 4:06pm
The median house price jumped from $260k to $419k in 4 years? Is this legit?
34
RayAmerica
2023 Aug 16, 5:04pm
RayAmerica
2023 Aug 16, 5:04pm
Waitup says
No, it's not legit. We've been in a phony real estate market (and economy) since the crash of 2008. The entire economic balloon is being floated by inflationary economics ... the wanton printing of 'money' without restraint. Also, the USA has benefitted since the close of WW II when the dollar was made the reserve currency for the civilized world. That enabled the US to spend without any regard for the future. Now however, there is a major push to create a global, or regional, currency in order to challenge the American dollar. If and when that actually happens, it will be lights out for this economy.
The median house price jumped from $260k to $419k in 4 years? Is this legit?
No, it's not legit. We've been in a phony real estate market (and economy) since the crash of 2008. The entire economic balloon is being floated by inflationary economics ... the wanton printing of 'money' without restraint. Also, the USA has benefitted since the close of WW II when the dollar was made the reserve currency for the civilized world. That enabled the US to spend without any regard for the future. Now however, there is a major push to create a global, or regional, currency in order to challenge the American dollar. If and when that actually happens, it will be lights out for this economy.
35
just_passing_through
2023 Aug 16, 5:08pm
just_passing_through
2023 Aug 16, 5:08pm
RWSGFY says
My PM is a broker in the family so I get it for free. He tells me the going rate is 10-12% for gross rent in San Antonio plus listing fees but that was several years ago. When I list that's free to me too but I typically pay the agent that shows it to the renter I select $400-500.
I've checked out local PM websites and they run from cheap with little service to some with many levels of service to choose from that can get pricey.
The book I'm listening to right now says that typical PM company charges 1 month rent when they find a tenant and 1 months rent every time that tenant renews the lease. Is this really how it is on the ground? Seems expensive AF.
My PM is a broker in the family so I get it for free. He tells me the going rate is 10-12% for gross rent in San Antonio plus listing fees but that was several years ago. When I list that's free to me too but I typically pay the agent that shows it to the renter I select $400-500.
I've checked out local PM websites and they run from cheap with little service to some with many levels of service to choose from that can get pricey.
36
just_passing_through
2023 Aug 16, 5:11pm
just_passing_through
2023 Aug 16, 5:11pm
RayAmerica says
At least 10 years to start getting concerned about that. First India just backed out in the near to medium term and second it would need to have a deep deep pool of liquidity / bond market before it worked well at all and that will take lots of time.
If and when that actually happens, it will be lights out for this economy.
At least 10 years to start getting concerned about that. First India just backed out in the near to medium term and second it would need to have a deep deep pool of liquidity / bond market before it worked well at all and that will take lots of time.
37
richwicks
2023 Aug 16, 5:11pm
richwicks
2023 Aug 16, 5:11pm
Eric Holder says
No no no.
We are the 4th Reich. How can you not see this? We've been lied into 7 wars, you can't even name them, we have constant propaganda, and corporations control our government. Our FDA is nothing more than PR for big pharma, we're all being spied upon constantly (everything you say or hear in a year fits in 10 GB or so, that's $1 worth of storage at this point - so I guarantee the government just collects it), we cannot talk openly, we are constantly censored, our our "news" media is propaganda and will never inform you.
Maddow is just part of that. Sean Hannity is as well. They all are, Anderson Cooper, and all the assholes you know as the talking heads.
Our nation has attacked and bombed Afghanistan, Iraq, Pakistan, Libya, Syria, Somalia, and Yemen. How many people dead? What were the actual reasons for these attacks? I'm looking for answers, and even I don't know and I try very hard.
99.99% of Americans can't even identify what nations our government has attacked, nobody knows how many people have been killed. We're the Nazi regime of this century.
I fully believe that Maui was an internal attack. I know 9/11 likely was, I know for certain that the 1993 WTC bombing was. I can't convince anybody, I can't get them to open their eyes. Our government is a tyrannical fascist system, and nobody recognizes it. It's maddening.
richwicks says
she helped restart the fucking Cold War
Oh, Putler is female now?
No no no.
We are the 4th Reich. How can you not see this? We've been lied into 7 wars, you can't even name them, we have constant propaganda, and corporations control our government. Our FDA is nothing more than PR for big pharma, we're all being spied upon constantly (everything you say or hear in a year fits in 10 GB or so, that's $1 worth of storage at this point - so I guarantee the government just collects it), we cannot talk openly, we are constantly censored, our our "news" media is propaganda and will never inform you.
Maddow is just part of that. Sean Hannity is as well. They all are, Anderson Cooper, and all the assholes you know as the talking heads.
Our nation has attacked and bombed Afghanistan, Iraq, Pakistan, Libya, Syria, Somalia, and Yemen. How many people dead? What were the actual reasons for these attacks? I'm looking for answers, and even I don't know and I try very hard.
99.99% of Americans can't even identify what nations our government has attacked, nobody knows how many people have been killed. We're the Nazi regime of this century.
I fully believe that Maui was an internal attack. I know 9/11 likely was, I know for certain that the 1993 WTC bombing was. I can't convince anybody, I can't get them to open their eyes. Our government is a tyrannical fascist system, and nobody recognizes it. It's maddening.
38
just_passing_through
2023 Aug 16, 5:15pm
just_passing_through
2023 Aug 16, 5:15pm
richwicks says
Well it wasn't. I have dozens of friends who were on the ground there. The tall dry grass catches on fire uphill from there frequently but the winds usually aren't blowing through the valley like that (or even in that direction) most of the time. It was powerlines falling over catching things on fire as-usual but turned into a blow torch this time.
I do like @ceffer's conspiracy theories though!
I fully believe that Maui was an internal attack.
Well it wasn't. I have dozens of friends who were on the ground there. The tall dry grass catches on fire uphill from there frequently but the winds usually aren't blowing through the valley like that (or even in that direction) most of the time. It was powerlines falling over catching things on fire as-usual but turned into a blow torch this time.
I do like @ceffer's conspiracy theories though!
39
just_passing_through
2023 Aug 16, 5:16pm
just_passing_through
2023 Aug 16, 5:16pm
Also all manner of dumbassery from the government. This asshole takes the cake so far: https://twitter.com/EndWokeness/status/1691909193656152465
40
richwicks
2023 Aug 16, 5:21pm
richwicks
2023 Aug 16, 5:21pm
just_passing_through says
I don't know.
I'm past the age of drawing conclusions quickly. We'll find out in a few years.
Don't be so quick to trust your government not to do something evil, they do it all the time. January 6th is one obvious example. The fallout from these fires, will tell us what happened. I know it's difficult to see your government as an enemy, but if you really knew their history, it's pretty trivial.
Time will tell. I know that Syria was something the US instigated, Libya was not attacked "to prevent a humanitarian crisis", the Hussein wasn't making a "weapons of mass destruction program", and Russia didn't "invade Ukraine for no reason at all".
Of course they will take this treachery and murder at home in time. I think in 5 years time, you'll suspect, but time will tell. I don't honestly know at this point, but I know this government, it's a bunch of murderers and thugs.
What they depend on, is in 5 years, you'll forget about it all. Remember Flint Michigan? That's when the government poisoned the population with with lead laced water. Remember Palestine Ohio? That was much more recent. I am cursed with a memory. I'll be looking at Maui in 5 years. Nearly nobody else will.
richwicks says
I fully believe that Maui was an internal attack.
Well it wasn't. I have dozens of friends who were on the ground there. The tall dry grass catches on fire uphill from there frequently but the winds usually aren't blowing through the valley like that (or even in that direction) most of the time. It was powerlines falling over catching things on fire as-usual but turned into a blow torch this time.
I do like ceffer's conspiracy theories though!
I don't know.
I'm past the age of drawing conclusions quickly. We'll find out in a few years.
Don't be so quick to trust your government not to do something evil, they do it all the time. January 6th is one obvious example. The fallout from these fires, will tell us what happened. I know it's difficult to see your government as an enemy, but if you really knew their history, it's pretty trivial.
Time will tell. I know that Syria was something the US instigated, Libya was not attacked "to prevent a humanitarian crisis", the Hussein wasn't making a "weapons of mass destruction program", and Russia didn't "invade Ukraine for no reason at all".
Of course they will take this treachery and murder at home in time. I think in 5 years time, you'll suspect, but time will tell. I don't honestly know at this point, but I know this government, it's a bunch of murderers and thugs.
What they depend on, is in 5 years, you'll forget about it all. Remember Flint Michigan? That's when the government poisoned the population with with lead laced water. Remember Palestine Ohio? That was much more recent. I am cursed with a memory. I'll be looking at Maui in 5 years. Nearly nobody else will.
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