patrick.net

He mostly shares interesting stuff he sees when he reviews files. This is why my lenders are shocked when I talk and negotiate loan terms with them. Certain terms are only being offered to the privilege. Remember how Mark Zuckerberg got 1% mortgage loan with his lender? Yeah, certain things are catered to the ultra rich, not the minions

Robert Sproul says

just_passing_through says

Lots of laws have changed over the past decade to make it easier for the fat fucking cats to do this to us more easily as well.

I am a Certified Paranoid Conspiracy Theorist but I ask why the hell would they, slowly and quietly, make these changes (which I think many [most] are unaware of) if they don't intend, at some point, to TAKE OUR FUCKING MONEY.

Exactly. Real Estate, 401k, even cash will be taken by some governmental body “for your own good” of course.

gabbar says

Isn't this what we do, discuss on facebook, whatsapp, p.net?

We’ll be identified easily as stray ants and even the other woke ants are/will turn against us. I’m not holding any hope that the ants will realize they have opportunity to secure their wealth and freedom before it is too late. It might already be too late.

PeopleUnited says

Exactly. Real Estate, 401k, even cash will be taken by some governmental body “for your own good” of course.

I dunno about cash, but all debt based assets. Maybe after they roll out cbdc and ban cash. Harder to steal a paid-for house (raise property taxes sky high would do it), coins/metals and nearly impossible to get at your bitcorn - unless they torture you.

Harder for them to know about the butane tanks you've buried in the woods and the boxes and boxes of refillable cigarette lighters you've stowed away for barter. Weapons, ammo, etc.

Not that I'm setup like that at all... However, I'm going to go fill my gas cans with fresh ethanol free gas today so when the temperature hits 17F here late Sunday (or early Monday) and the power in Texas goes out again for nearly a week I can survive that using my new generator.

It'll be above freezing during the days this week though so we will probably be okay. The 'rain' is scheduled for daytime. It's when things ice up here that we're screwed and everything breaks as easily as The Coaster does in SD when it rains there.

gabbar says

Is there a bulletproof long term dividend paying stock?

I own some Phillip Morris. I think they have a viable long-term business in the "electric cigarettes" market. My idea is that their profits (and stock price) rise at the rate of inflation while spinning off a 5.5% (and increasing) dividend.

SunnyvaleCA says

I own some Phillip Morris. I think they have a viable long-term business in the "electric cigarettes" market. My idea is that their profits (and stock price) rise at the rate of inflation while spinning off a 5.5% (and increasing) dividend.

I was swing trading MO (Altria) the past year quite a bit. I beat the dividends by a lot but never received one. The past few months the chart hasn't shown any nice clean entry points though.

For a while though there was a nice easy sine-wave. (trending down)

Anyone familiar with Genpact Limited (Ticket Symbol: G)?
Its was included in Portfolio 1 of Value Line Investment Survey at $41. Current price is $34.

just_passing_through says

I dunno about cash, but all debt based assets. Maybe after they roll out cbdc and ban cash. Harder to steal a paid-for house (raise property taxes sky high would do it), coins/metals and nearly impossible to get at your bitcorn - unless they torture you.

Yes, they will at some point ban cash Transactions. I’m not sure which method(s) they will employ to get people out of their houses/give up their real estate, but real estate will lose its value when people are struggling just to keep warm and fed. Transportation also would become unreasonably expensive or impossible due to fuel prices or availability. Probably utilities become unreasonably expensive or completely inoperable due to various real or false flag events and people are forced to abandon most rural areas unless they are set up to function off grid.

If they really want you out of your house, they will just burn it down like they did in Waco.

When things fall apart it will be sudden and fear/perhaps even significant violence will ensue. There will be pain and death, furthering the despair and loss. There will be propaganda blaming some scapegoat(s) like Hitler did for all the suffering/false flags/shortages. Sooner or later people will beg for “recovery” which will be the great reset.

clambo says

Tip: My Vanguard Variable Annuity is unreported to any government department; it's a contract between me and TransAmerica.

I'm curious. What's the real advantage of a variable annuity vs living off of stock dividends and other income-related investments? Did you select fixed payments?

PeopleUnited says

I’m not sure which method(s) they will employ to get people out of their houses/give up their real estate

This dude has some explanations of their plans. It of course involves 'decarbonizing' housing.
https://www.igor-chudov.com/p/the-wef-wants-your-house-to-be-worth
I anticipate that most of us will ignore what they are TELLING US THEY ARE PLANNING TO DO, and will be trading stock tips and remodeling our kitchens right up until the point that we ourselves become 'stranded assets' and are completely decarbonized.

REpro says

Take advantage of illegals. Buy apartment building and rent by rooms. Perhaps government will pay you. 40%+ return on money.

"They are turning our country into a shit hole....MIGHT AS WELL MAKE A FEW BUCKS!!"

Robert Sproul says

REpro says

Take advantage of illegals. Buy apartment building and rent by rooms. Perhaps government will pay you. 40%+ return on money.

"They are turning our country into a shit hole....MIGHT AS WELL MAKE A FEW BUCKS!!"

Yep, like putting a tip jar out while playing music on the sinking Titanic

.

Eman says

Remember how Mark Zuckerberg got 1% mortgage loan with his lender? Yeah, certain things are catered to the ultra rich, not the minions

A urologist I know performed surgeries on a bank official and he got loans at more favorable terms, these things indeed happen.

Porkchop express:
Re Variable annuity
I have not yet taken out any payments from my annuity.
Some characteristics are:
1. Nobody knows you own it.
2. Immune from civil judgments.
3. Can change the investments (mutual funds but are called sub accounts) with no tax consequences.
4. Can exchange for a fixed annuity and lock in monthly payments at good rates, which increase if you wait until older.
5. Possible to withdraw without "annuitizing", like a mutual fund.
6. Possible to make your age to "annuitize" age 99.
At the time I bought my variable annuity the IRA limit was just $2000/year.
Today I would suggest just buying Vanguard Tax Managed Capital appreciation fund and forget it for 30 years.

clambo says

Porkchop express:
Re Variable annuity
I have not yet taken out any payments from my annuity.
Some characteristics are:
1. Nobody knows you own it.
2. Immune from civil judgments.
3. Can change the investments (mutual funds but are called sub accounts) with no tax consequences.
4. Can exchange for a fixed annuity and lock in monthly payments at good rates, which increase if you wait until older.
5. Possible to withdraw without "annuitizing", like a mutual fund.
6. Possible to make your age to "annuitize" age 99.
At the time I bought my variable annuity the IRA limit was just $2000/year.
Today I would suggest just buying Vanguard Tax Managed Capital appreciation fund and forget it for 30 years.

Thanks for explaining. I will definitely look into that Vanguard fund.

Random post about an investment my friend recently made in La Paz, BCS, Mexico.
She bought 6 apartments and the land of the parking lot for about $240,000 bucks.
She's fixing them up and will probably start renting them at $500 bucks per month; locals can't afford much more.
She can build a few more units on one end of the parking lot.
On an empty piece of the parking lot she'll construct a townhouse for herself.
There is presently high demand for rentals by foreigners who can work remotely; I have met a bunch of them here and there.
Eventually she may decide to rent to a foreign clientele and charge $800/month or so for the places.
She's selling her house which is on the outskirts of town and move eventually to her new townhouse which is only 8 blocks to the ocean front Malecon.
She's Mexican.

clambo says

She bought 6 apartments and the land of the parking lot for about $240,000 bucks.
She's fixing them up and will probably start renting them at $500 bucks per month; locals can't afford much more.

Clambo, what's cap rate and ROI ? Seems like the annual ROI would be no more than 7%.

Seems like one could just effortlessly invest in Vanguard High Dividend Yield fund.

.

ad says

Seems like one could just effortlessly invest in Vanguard High Dividend Yield fund.

I've gotten the impression that a lot of people would rather be landlords when they would be better off just buying stocks.

Booger says

ad says

Seems like one could just effortlessly invest in Vanguard High Dividend Yield fund.

I've gotten the impression that a lot of people would rather be landlords when they would be better off just buying stocks.

This way they can boast how they "control XX millions in rental
properties" after putting down 3% in downpayment. 🤡 Can't put a price on ego boost, mkay?

Ad, you made a good point.
She actually wants to buy a high yield fund with money she gets from a sale of some land with a view of the Pacific Ocean.
Most people in Mexico have no knowledge of funds or how to buy them.
Today foreigners can buy ETFs with Interactive Brokers with no problem.

clambo says

Today I would suggest just buying Tax Managed Capital appreciation fund and forget it for 30 years.

The past ten years as S&P 500 dividend yield has gone down, it's essentially become similar to Tax Managed Capital Appreciation Fund.

RWSGFY says

This way they can boast how they "control XX millions in rental
properties" after putting down 3% in downpayment. 🤡 Can't put a price on ego boost, mkay?

You've got to put down 25% for a SFH rental. (Unless you're someone like Eman maybe)

Booger says

I've gotten the impression that a lot of people would rather be landlords when they would be better off just buying stocks.

You can do both. That's part of what I consider diversification.

just_passing_through says

You've got to put down 25% for a SFH rental. (Unless you're someone like Eman maybe)

You can do 3% if you're buying a 2-4 unit property and live in one of them for some time. Or so I was told by the voice reading the audio book on RE investing to me.

Amazon at highest price. Wonder if it will go even more.

Meta went up 22% in a day , wow those who bought it at 100 made 5x in few years

Where to find CRE deals like this one.? I don't have no where near 25 mil but would be nice find something worth buying lower cost.

CRE is fucked. Banks are losing their shit on possible defaults (jingle-mail) by their CRE customers. This is another RE bust, except instead of homes, it's business properties, office towers, etc. They borrowed to the hilt under ZIRP, but now that the balloon payments are due, look out below!

Eric Holder says

just_passing_through says

You've got to put down 25% for a SFH rental. (Unless you're someone like Eman maybe)

You can do 3% if you're buying a 2-4 unit property and live in one of them for some time. Or so I was told by the voice reading the audio book on RE investing to me.

This is correct. As long as you occupy one of the units. After 12 months, you can move out, rent the unit you occupy and buy another “owner-occupy” 2-4 units. Rinse and repeat. This approach works for singles and/or DINKs.

KgK one says

Where to find CRE deals like this one.? I don't have no where near 25 mil but would be nice find something worth buying lower cost.

This is the real reason I think insurers are raising rates, btw.

Florida is below the number of strong hurricane landfalls expected in the past decade. For most of this Century, the weather has been milder than most of the 20th.

They're cooking the books and jacking up the property insurance rates to cover the unexpected COVID Commercial Real Estate investment losses, once considered among the safest and surest.

If you're going to be pragmatic and you don't mind investing in evil, purchase Offence Contractor stocks.

Eman says

This is correct. As long as you occupy one of the units. After 12 months, you can move out, rent the unit you occupy and buy another “owner-occupy” 2-4 units. Rinse and repeat. This approach works for singles and/or DINKs.

So is that how you build your portfolio of residential investment properties ? but you are buying as an individual or couple, and not as a business such as LLC ?

keep maximizing the application of "others people money" (OPM) to finance the portfolio

,

AD says

Eman says

This is correct. As long as you occupy one of the units. After 12 months, you can move out, rent the unit you occupy and buy another “owner-occupy” 2-4 units. Rinse and repeat. This approach works for singles and/or DINKs.

So is that how you build your portfolio of residential investment properties ? but you are buying as an individual or couple, and not as a business such as LLC ?

keep maximizing the application of "others people money" (OPM) to finance the portfolio

,

No, I didn’t know these rules when I bought my house. I didn’t own investment properties until 2009. Single units are financed with 30-year fixed under our names. Apartment buildings are all under LLC’s. Each building is its own LLC

AD says

Seems like one could just effortlessly invest in Vanguard High Dividend Yield fund.

Here's my issue with the above fund, ~25% of its total holdings are in the Mag 7, which by now, is no longer a secret among traders (Apple, Google, NVDIA, Tesla, Meta, Amazon, MS).

In other words, it's not too distinct from an ordinary S&P500 fund which already has a third parked in the Mag 7.

Let me re-post my earlier comment

https://patrick.net/post/1379839/2023-07-26-when-the-bears-finally-go-home?start=1#comment-2011496

Here's the thing, one can simply use the Nasdaq, QQQ, if they want to swing trade the Mag 7 as they make up a vast majority of its weighted holdings. Here's a chart of that, using the basic 21 day period Stochastic RSI for buy/sell signals. This is an 'All Long' strategy, no short selling involved.



The only thing I'd add to the above is a 120 day exponential moving average filter. And then, you won't get caught with your pants down, when the music stops.

All and all, I use short term earnings to re-invest in high div defensive stocks like Rio Tinto, British-American Tobacco, & Altria. And I keep a remainder to spread out among others like Verizon, Vodafone, Chevron, etc.

@Rin,

So exit QQQ completely when it breaks below 120 EMA? Thanks.

Rin says

All and all, I use short term earnings to re-invest in high div defensive stocks like Rio Tinto, British-American Tobacco, & Altria. And I keep a remainder to spread out among others like Verizon, Vodafone, Chevron, etc.

I want to gift 50k to my teenager and leave it alone for 10 years, where should I invest?

If the teenager is under 18, the account is called "UTMA". Uniform Transfer to Minors Act. If you do this, you can also determine at what age the little dear can actually have access to the money.

My choice would be Vanguard Tax Managed Capital Appreciation.
This fund will not produce a large 1099 every year; taxes are a drag and should always be avioded.

I have usually regretted all of the expensive gifts or favors I have done; your results may vary.

gabbar says

I want to gift 50k to my teenager and leave it alone for 10 years, where should I invest?

If you're not actively trading (vis-a-vis investing) the money and thus, don't have a sense of creating a basket of dividend paying stocks or ETFs, then I'd default to the Dow Jones Industrial Average. The reason for choosing the Dow30 is that unlike the S&P500, only 3 tech "LALA" stocks like Apple, Microsoft, & Saleforce are in the Dow30 capping out at ~15%. Other Dow30 "technology oriented" stocks like Honeywell, IBM, CISCO are no longer a part of the Silicon Valley 'buzz' and almost appear to behave like utility companies from a portfolio p.o.v. And many of the other Dow stocks like Chevron, 3M, Verizon, etc, give dividends and thus, will do all right with a DRIP set in place.

Here's a calculator on how re-investing dividends, during two back-to-back bear markets resulted for the Dow30.



And compare that with the S&P500.

You could always do something ballsy like park it in a 10 year treasury. It pays about 4%, which is about 1.8% over the expected rate of inflation.

Misc says

You could always do something ballsy like park it in a 10 year treasury. It pays about 4%, which is about 1.8% over the expected rate of inflation.

Right now, I have the 50k parked in a 1 month treasury (I learned about treasuries from this site) I see, but please explain which this is ballsy? I assume you are saying that this is bold.

gabbar says

Misc says

You could always do something ballsy like park it in a 10 year treasury. It pays about 4%, which is about 1.8% over the expected rate of inflation.

Right now, I have the 50k parked in a 1 month treasury (I learned about treasuries from this site) I see, but please explain which this is ballsy? I assume you are saying that this is bold.

Nope just super conservative (was being facetious). Also, 1.8% over the rate of inflation is typically what a person would expect from investing in stocks...so getting that guaranteed from a bond investment that is guaranteed by the US government seems like a good bet.

Another investment idea for those with bucks is to just hold the funds in a money market account and buy a trophy property in a few years.

I have a feeling that high-end properties are gonna see a huge devaluation. The rich are just as leveraged as the common folk (there really are no adults) and quite a number of them have been maintaining their lifestyle based on being able to go further and further into debt. Property upkeep and increases in property taxes are gonna put enough of them into the situation of having to sell. There should be enough of these forced sales at once to cause prices to grenade. If you have to sell, but there are no buyers...prices rapidly go to zero. Take a look at all the dilapidated mansions from years gone by to see what the future holds for many of these properties...unless they can get a buyer...and that buyer will pay a pittance for these trophy homes in today's dollars.

Just my opinion.

Misc says

that buyer will pay a pittance for these trophy homes in today's dollars.

True, but one of the reasons is that the tax and upkeep on these trophy homes are stratospheric. A $6million home in a high tax place like Omaha can cost over $10k per month in local property taxes alone.