patrick.net

Eric Holder says

komputodo says

RWSGFY says

It's all Obama's fault!

Who's fault is it when a person loses in a casino?

What is casino in this context? Elections?

the manipulated stock market

RWSGFY says

Oldie, but goodie:



Paging SpaceX. Elon, you heard the man.

Dow "Joans?"

Booger says

My portfolio is down by more than 1M,

That implies a portfolio of $15 million or higher. Nice. Were you one of those who bought Apple, Amazon, et all, back in the beginning?

HeadSet says

Booger says

My portfolio is down by more than 1M,

That implies a portfolio of $15 million or higher. Nice. Were you one of those who bought Apple, Amazon, et all, back in the beginning?

Or he's older or got a bunch of stock options as an employee early on.

WookieMan says

Or he's older or got a bunch of stock options as an employee early on.

Possibly, but he talks of buying "more dividend paying stocks" so he appears to be an investor.

stereotomy says

Triffin Delimma

Yes, and Trump is being coy as much as Putin is with the Ukraine War.

But the way Trump manages expectations, if US manufacturing jobs as a percentage of total jobs goes from currently 10% to 15% then he'll declare victory, besides showing a decrease in the trade deficit.

It's a tangible gain that he can take to the American public, just like showing the fiscal year 2025 deficit at or below the 2024 deficit which would be the first time the deficit did not increase since Bill Clinton's last year in office.

Trump first defines winning as being a noticeable improvement over Birdbrain Biden.

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The S&P 500 has delivered an average annual return of 10.13% since 1957, but when adjusted for inflation, the real return drops to 6.37% as of December 2024.

The real return over the last 5 years has been 25%, so averaging about 4.5% real return per year since April 2020.

S&P 500 has averaged about 5% real return per year over the last 20 years.

https://www.multpl.com/inflation-adjusted-s-p-500

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The corporate tax rate in 2005 was 35%, today its 21%.

That 5% real return per year over the last 20 years is a mirage. It is a gift from the government to the wealthiest people in the country via lowed taxes. This boosted the profits of the corporations.

Of course the government could always reduce corporate taxes further, thus increasing profits and share prices.

The guy who has seen his investments drop by $1 million doesn't need to have had $15 million dollars.

He could have $7 million or less and see this decline compared to the top value before stocks fell.

Misc says

That 5% real return per year over the last 20 years is a mirage.

Also share buybacks may be a part of this as well. Have to track net income and profit margin by year.

I look at Amazon and it continues to grow and its becoming more of a technology and entertainment company than an online retailer.

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clambo says

The guy who has seen his investments drop by $1 million doesn't need to have had $15 million dollars.

He could have $7 million or less and see this decline compared to the top value before stocks fell.

I thought he was talking about losing that $1million during the two days since the tariff took effect.

HeadSet says

clambo says

The guy who has seen his investments drop by $1 million doesn't need to have had $15 million dollars.

He could have $7 million or less and see this decline compared to the top value before stocks fell.

I thought he was talking about losing that $1million during the two days since the tariff took effect.

I think he meant from the ATH - Late November/ Early December of last year (looking at all three major indices).

HeadSet says

RWSGFY says

Oldie, but goodie:



Paging SpaceX. Elon, you heard the man.

Dow "Joans?"

Brought to you by the author of "covfefe".

What's interesting is that I'm pretty sure that Donald actually writes his stuff; I doubt a minion would write "Joans" instead of Jones.

RWSGFY says

Brought to you by the author of "covfefe".

More likely it is bogus.

HeadSet says

RWSGFY says

Brought to you by the author of "covfefe".

More likely it is bogus.

This is why I hate memes and twitter/X shared images. It's 90% bull shit in my world.

The real return for the S&P 500 over the last 4 years is nearly 0%.

https://www.multpl.com/inflation-adjusted-s-p-500

S&P 500 futures show 4928 points.

At the current level of 5045 points, the S&P 500 is averaging about 8.5% annual appreciation since January 2020.

However inflation has been high from 2021 to 2023.

It has not been that spectacular of growth for Amzn and Googl over the last 5 years, its as if the COVID hyper-gains were wiped out.

And the last 25 years has been somewhat lackluster for the S&P 500 considering historically it is suppose to return around 11% a year

Good luck to everyone tomorrow. Eleven months ago I began pulling back and put one fifth of my portfolio into bonds (as announced on pat.net). It's crazy, but I feel about the only other person around here that even mentions BND is AD. At any rate, was perhaps a bit early. Started selling more indexes when the S&P 500 hit 5500 and then every 100 point rise from there on out. Made it to 40% cash & bonds. This is my last hurrah at attempting to time the market, so hopefully won't screw it up. Thinking about going 90/10 long term with total US market (VTI) and BND. Will probably dip my toe in the water if the market continues to tank. Contemplating some international indexes (VXUS), to help blunt the possibility of a lost decade in US indexes. At least with VXUS you get a 3+% dividend. Any other folks considering international indexes? Maybe something like a 70/20/10 split. Good night and good luck.

EBGuy says

Any other folks considering international indexes?

Congrats on getting the first half right. If I was you that 40% in cash and bonds would be in VTI before the end of trading today.

My current international is in SCHF and it's done no better than my SCHB. I won't be buying anymore international stock and may even sell what I have to buy US ETF's.

As an alternative I'm seriously considering EMLC which I've monitored for years but never purchased. It's a currency play - international junk bonds priced in local (to the bond) currency. I may be outsmarting myself with that one but in all the time I've watched it it's near it's lows price wise but pays a 6+% coupon. It's a bet against the dollar and I'm pretty sure Trump wants a weaker dollar.

I think no matter what I decide to do it will be catching a falling knife.

I always keep 3 years of expenses in cash but otherwise I'm pretty much fully invested so it means I have to sell in order to buy. It's easier to do nothing.

More panic selling this morning.

zzyzzx says

More panic selling this morning.

Oh well unless you're old. Even then you shouldn't have been in stocks if you're retired or you have FU money.

I still think it's an overreaction and it will run at some point this week. Factor in margin calls where stocks have to be sold to cover the loan. Once the dust settles and the highly leveraged people are forced to sell off I think it comes back up.

March 16th, 2020 at 9:47am

HeadSet says

RWSGFY says

Brought to you by the author of "covfefe".

More likely it is bogus.

Could be. But there are lots of mentions of him saying that if market is tanking the POTUS is not doing his job right going back as far as 2012. Was his twatter history wiped out when he was banned in 2020 or not?

PS. Are we fact-checking shit now? What are we, demon rats?

komputodo says

What is casino in this context? Elections?

the manipulated stock market...where is the PPT ( plunge protection team)?

komputodo says

komputodo says

What is casino in this context? Elections?

the manipulated stock market...where is the PPT ( plunge protection team)?

Manipulated how? The fall was absolutely commesurate with the news. (Too mild, even) The market did expect normal reciprocal tariffs, what it got was some unapplicable formula by some obscure scientist, calculated with wrong values substituted into it, which effectively increased the resulting numbers 4x. Are you implying the idiocy was intentional and not just Lutnick or Navaro being regular stupid cunts? We need to check their trades then.

I'm not familiar with the plunge protection metrics - my WAG would be the criteria for stopping trading
weren't satisfied.

RWSGFY says

Manipulated how?

from investopedia: theorists have speculated that the PPT group executes trades on several exchanges when prices are heading downward, collaborating with big banks such as Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley in unrecorded transactions. They often point to a 1989 speech published in The Wall Street Journal by former Federal Reserve Board of Governors member Robert Heller, which suggested the Fed could directly support the stock market by purchasing index futures contracts.
How the Plunge Protection Team (PPT) Might Work
On Monday, February 5, 2018, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) experienced a drop that was twice as large as its biggest point decline in history. However, arbitrary and aggressive buying cut the decline in half in one day. On Tuesday and Wednesday of that week, stocks opened lower, and each time aggressive buying buoyed the markets. That aggressive buying, some say, was being orchestrated by the Plunge Protection Team.

Well, they probably stepped in today: everybody expected another Black Monday and early it looked like we'd have one, but the shit bounced.

The funny (and sad) part is the economy is now fucking married to that formula complete with wrong values plugged into it, unless somebody could persuade Donnie to climb down from that tree. For now I can't think of anybody. Kushner, maybe?

If only there was a method to avoid such fuckups... Like doing it through Congress, allowing for public comment period between rolling the shit out and it going into effect, etc.

But nooo, we are in an e-mehr-gen-cey!

It's not really a loss until you sell:

DeportLibtards says

It's not really a loss until you sell:

And when you have to sell because of a margin call?

RWSGFY says

The funny (and sad) part is the economy is now fucking married to that formula complete with wrong values plugged into it, unless somebody could persuade Donnie to climb down from that tree. For now I can't think of anybody. Kushner, maybe?

If only there was a method to avoid such fuckups... Like doing it through Congress, allowing for public comment period between rolling the shit out and it going into effect, etc.

But nooo, we are in an e-mehr-gen-cey!

The problem is that nobody has the will to stop kicking the can...so the economy will never truly recover. It will keep needing stimulus.

komputodo says

DeportLibtards says

It's not really a loss until you sell:

And when you have to sell because of a margin call?

That falls under 'until you sell', yes.

Just like how some dudes blow their wad mere seconds after the BJ starts while others can hold out until the girl starts to complain about getting tired, individual results will vary.

WookieMan says

Even then you shouldn't have been in stocks if you're retired or you have FU money.

Not necessarily. I can see your point with the retired folks moving out of growth stocks, but some folks have a collection of dividend paying stocks that supplement retirement income. These will never be sold so the occasional dip is of little concern. In my case, I have over 50 different dividend paying stocks that collectively pay thousands per month (varies with payout dates) and will be passed on to the kid. Cool benefit with passing on stocks (outside of an IRA) is that the basis resets so any capital gains should the kid sell would be based on the value when inherited, not originally bought.

komputodo says

RWSGFY says

The funny (and sad) part is the economy is now fucking married to that formula complete with wrong values plugged into it, unless somebody could persuade Donnie to climb down from that tree. For now I can't think of anybody. Kushner, maybe?

If only there was a method to avoid such fuckups... Like doing it through Congress, allowing for public comment period between rolling the shit out and it going into effect, etc.

But nooo, we are in an e-mehr-gen-cey!

The problem is that nobody has the will to stop kicking the can...so the economy will never truly recover. It will keep needing stimulus.

How does this justify using half-baked formulas with wrong values in the denominator? The urgency of change is there, but it's not "we've got mere days to live" kind of urgency. The political runway is 12/4/2 years long (best/medium/worst case) and spending a week or two on deliberation and double-checking the numbers and formulas and then 1-2 months on actual negotiations with trade partners and then giving businesses deadlines a year-year-and-half out is only prudent. If anything, this kind of botched roll-out could've shortend the said runway because the risk of stagflation increased and that shit is very hard to get out of. And it gave the demon rats a rallying cry "remember when they killed your 401k!!!". Looks like an unforced error.

PS. Turns out Lutnick has a MAJOR conflict of interest as his firm benefits bigly from stonks crashing and burning, so the haphazard roll-out could've been intentional on his part.

PPS. Even fucking demon rats gave carmakers ample warning and more or less clear roadmap wrt, for example, CAFE and EV mandates. This shit with tariffs is akin to Potato issuing an EO saying that all cars for sale in the US must be EVs starting 6 days from the date of the order.

Trump has been talking tariffs for decades and certainly extensively on the campaign trail AND during the preparation prior to office and in his first two months in office.

Let Wall Street howl, they've had it their own way for 30+ years, trillions in auto & bank & airline bailouts, PPTs, etc. etc.

It's Main Street's turn.

This is "SHOCK Main Street". If Wall Street shock capitalism was good for the Soviet Union, then Shock Economic Nationalism is good for Wall Street.

I'm glad Trump is shocking Wall Street, less time to Bullshit and Sabotage and put up baloney numbers and lies from the Tax Foundation, CATO, etc.

Literally nobody is crying about this except CNBC, MSNBC, and people who think the stock market is the entire Economy and should never be permitted to go down.

The time for patience and reasonableness has passed. Wall Street never reciprocated jack shit, never moderated, only demanded maximum outsourcing, minimal tariff, and maximal deficits with no holds barred or delays, so fuck 'em. It'll be great when the Longhouse Matriarchs are purged from many businesses, the Carly Fiorina and Marissa Mayers. As well as buffons like Dave Calhoun (Former CEO of Boeing who railed against "White Male Engineers" and their persnickity safety and quality concerns).

Fuck Bill Clinton and MFN and WTO for China.

https://youtu.be/zQ7HJBvH-Sk?si=uVkxnu7vZCffflJC

And fuck Bush, too. They rammed our P-3 over international waters and instead of cratering Hainan in response, Bush grovelled and let the Chinese gut and copy all the sensors and equipment because Wall Street put offshoring ahead of National Security as always. Bush went over to lick Beijing Balls THREE TIMES while in office.

BIG BEAUTIFUL TARIFFS for China.

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The S&P 500's low during today's trading was 4835 which is 21.3% below the all time high of 6147. So technically are we in a bear market ?

What surprises me is S&P 500 futures is up now 1.65% :-/

From Fox Business News tonight: "CNBC issues on-air correction after pushing viral falsehood about Trump tariff 'pause'
White House called reports of Trump considering a 90-day pause on tariffs 'fake news' "

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