patrick.net

Al_Sharpton_for_President says

Its inevitable that the air will likely come out of an asset bubble for stocks as well as real estate, as everything "returns to the mean" or the historic trend line like 3 to 4% annual increase in rent price.

Even Amazon's CEO said during yesterday's earnings call that economy has caused consumers to be a lot more value-conscious.

And yet Amazon barely missed revenue forecast (but beat earnings/profit forecast) and its stock goes down about 10% today :-/

Sounds like somewhat of an over selling or over correction, granted its down about 15% from its all time high and 52 week high of around $202.

And just look at Panama City Beach townhome prices on its east side, as they are selling around $275,000 when their peak price was $330,000 in early 2022 and they were selling for $235,000 in early 2020. The same are renting $2000/month compared to $1500/month back in 2016 :-/
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It's simple dummy just buy and hold the S&P 500 index.

beershrine says

It's simple dummy just buy and hold the S&P 500 index.

Yes, buy and hold long term

And buy when the market drops more than 10% at each 5% increment drop after then

If the S&P 500 never recovers then there are bigger problems to be concerned with in regards to the economy and country

I was looking at the premiums for Amazon for calls that expire next Friday and it looks like the options trader market is betting on Amazon bouncing back +5% next week.
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I think I will convert some of my IRA to a Roth IRA on Monday morning (August 5)

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/08/03/berkshire-hathaway-earnings-2024-q2.html

Berkshire Hathaway’s cash pile swelled to a record $276.9 billion last quarter as Warren Buffett sold big chunks in stock holdings including Apple

The Omaha-based conglomerate’s cash hoard jumped significantly higher from the previous record of $189 billion, set in the first quarter of 2024. The increase came after the Oracle of Omaha sold nearly half of his stake in Tim Cook-led tech giant in the second quarter.

Berkshire has been a seller of stocks for seven quarters straight, but that selling accelerated in the last period with Buffett shedding more than $75 billion in equities in the second quarter. That brings the total of stocks sold in the first half of 2024 to more than $90 billion. The selling by Buffett has continued in the third quarter in some areas with Berkshire trimming its second biggest stake, Bank of America, for 12 consecutive days, filing this week showed.

Currently Berkshire has about 50% of its liquid asset in Equity Securities (Stocks), 47% in Cash and Cash Equivalents (Cash), and 3% in Fixed Maturity Securities (Bonds).

reference: https://www.gurufocus.com/buffett_assets_allocations.php

^^^
That should tell you everything you need to know about how overvalued the market is (at least to traditional value investors like Buffet).

Then again, Buffet was strongarmed into bailing out insurance companies back in the day.

stereotomy says

^^^
That should tell you everything you need to know about how overvalued the market is (at least to traditional value investors like Buffet).

Then again, Buffet was strongarmed into bailing out insurance companies back in the day.

This is the most Warren Buffet has been in cash as a percentage of total assets over the last 20 years.
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Democrats are lucky they have Chuck Schumer and the mainstream media to tell us how great the economy is going into the election.

Think back to 2008 when Schumer and the mainstream media were talking down the economy and stock market everyday back in August 2008.

Anyone remember James Carville back in 1992 and "its the economy stupid" ?

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As of right now I am not able to log in to either Schwab or Fidelity. Down down 900+ and Nas down 600+.

I was going to be a buyer today.

Schwab's website was working horribly over the weekend as well.

I was wondering what to worry about and I recently saw that the President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago is a shithead named Austan Goolsbee.

He may be worse than Janet Yellen, if that were possible.

Austan is a flaming liberal shithead, and he's going to probably wonder how a stock market dip or crash will affect Kamala's chances in November (answer; negatively).

Maybe he and his liberal ilk will suggest decreasing interest rates to bounce stonks back up before the election.

I'm pissed off at Vanguard; their website was fine and they fucked around with it and changed some shit so now I have to get used to the new stuff.
What assholes, oh well.

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/retail-traders-furious-outages-hit-major-us-brokerages-amid-black-monday-chaos

Retail Traders Furious As Outages Hit Major US Brokerages Amid Black Monday Chaos

Huh, that's not likely to be merely coincidence. They should be able to handle the traffic.

I suspect that limiting trading with "outages" is just a globalist way to slow the crash.

Schwab's acquisition of Ameritrade isn't helping. I mean unless Schwab increased it's server capacity at the same time, but I bet that they didn't.

AD says

Currently Berkshire has about 50% of its liquid asset in Equity Securities (Stocks), 47% in Cash and Cash Equivalents (Cash), and 3% in Fixed Maturity Securities (Bonds).

Wow, that seems very bullish for Stonks! /s

Al_Sharpton_for_President says

If you invested $1 million in the average S&P 500 stock index fund, you'd be smoking fat cigars and doing $243,800 worth of hookers and coke.

If I had a million dollars, I'd already be smoking fat cigars. I don't want any coke. Don't need to blow out my heart at my age. And I'd feel like a fool giving a whore $1000 to fuck especially knowing that she is thinking that I'm a dumb ass while she's doing me. Just sayin'

clambo says

I was wondering what to worry about

Are you uncomfortable if you don't have something to worry about?

I guess I'm a worrywart by nature.

Booger says

LOL! Correct in the first and second phases of the drop, but will be less expensive to buy out her equity positions in the marriage at the crash bottom.

Nikkei 225 dropped about 20% from last Wednesday to close on Monday. Its up about 9.7% now in intraday trading.

Lots of volatility as expected

AMZN oversold based on ADX and then RSI

https://aiolux.com/reports/analytics-technical-indicators?symbol=AMZN&tab_name=adx

https://aiolux.com/reports/analytics-technical-indicators?scroll=pills-tab&symbol=AMZN&tab_name=rsi

GOOGL also oversold

Chakin AD for GOOGL and AMZN show "buying pressure" that is "strong"

Where's the Plunge Protection Committee in all of this?

clambo says

I guess I'm a worrywart by nature.

If I had to guess I would bet that you have 3 years of expenses in post tax cash equivalents and 30x in your retirement accounts.

Worrywarting is highly under rated.

I don't know what my annual expenses are, but they're not too much compared to most guys.

I'm actually wondering how I can spend it faster since you cannot croak with too much or the Estate Tax kicks in.

I think since I was a teenager I was worried about how assholes, idiots, and other shitheads would negatively affect me.

Topogigio Fauci, Janet Yellen, Biden, Pelosi, Obama, and a huge list of other assholes have tried to fuck things up for us all, except for welfare cases.

Stonks going down a bit doesn't affect me much, rather my mood.

Patrick says

just a globalist way to slow the crash.

Actually I believe it is to prevent the paroles from doing some timely trading, insuring that only the wealthy have the ability to buy and sell at this critical time,

PeopleUnited says

paroles

Assuming you meant "proles"? But parolees works too.

Always remember the significance of the passage of time.

Republicans better be careful touting this stock fall. The stocks will like rise back up before the election and the Dems will take credit.

https://www.coffeeandcovid.com/p/dont-mention-the-war-tuesday-august

Patrick says

https://www.coffeeandcovid.com/p/dont-mention-the-war-tuesday-august

Yeah and go back to the mainstream media crashing the economy in 1992 election cycle (Its the Economy, Stupid) and 2008 election cycle (Chuck Schumer on TV everyday with that smirk stating the economy is failing).

They are just hoping the Democrats get to the finish line this November with enough voters fooled about Harris and the economy.

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Bloomberg TV just said Home Depot is hurting given the current weak housing market. Its down 15% from its all time high in December 2021 (from $415 to $352) :-/

Considering inflation was about 25% since December 2021, that means Home Depot has a real loss of 36% since December 2021

Also Bloomberg TV had about 30 minutes of Bitcoin and crypto coverage, and was stating it is going to get more adopted (especially with Blackrock and Fidelity ETFs for Bitcoin) and about how Trump has been become more pro-Bitcoin

{ disclaimer: I own an equivalent of about 50.46% of one Bitcoin in a Bitcoin ETF }

Door Dash seems like a solid growth company based on revenue growth for last 5 years and how its net income or profitability is improving. It looks like it can be more than just a restaurant food delivery service.

What do you all think of Door Dash as a stock ?



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I generally avoid individual stocks, with a few exceptions which were very good for me.
I would ask myself before buying Door Dash; do I see the product/service being used by many people? Do I use their product/service?
Is the product/service very profitable with a high profit margin?
Are there competitors who offer a similar product/service?

I have used Uber Eats a few times after I was housebound for a week; I would not use it again unless it were absolutely necessary.

I haven't used Door Dash, nor has anyone I know.
I therefore would reject Door Dash as an investment for myself.

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Today's Investor Business Daily article

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Don’t discount the “big, dumb robot” of autopilot 401k contributions.

Al_Sharpton_for_President says

Don’t discount the “big, dumb robot” of autopilot 401k contributions.

Yep, they pour into the S&P 500 index funds no matter what, just like they did at the crash in 2008-2009 and as they are now.

Granted, perhaps there are less contributions now because the workforce has changed demographically and you have more poor workers who cannot contribute like the baby boomers and older Gen X did and do.

S&P 500 real gain is only about 3% above its October 2021 level



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