patrick.net

From great expectations for the US market to "hide in Europe, cash or bonds" in how many weeks?

My international ETF's continue to suck ass. I don't know where all the ex-US optimism is coming from. They'd have to go on a multi-year +20% tear vs. US ETF's to even get close to catching up to good ole VTI.

AD says

S&P 500 real return for last 3.5 years is averaging around 1.25% annually

I'd take that all day long. That means I'm getting ahead of inflation, albeit slowly.

In my experience US stock ETF's are the only thing that reliably beats inflation, in every scenario. Gold doesn't. Bonds don't. I don't know about crypto but I avoid because it has no cash flows or physical properties, so I don't know how to value it.

stfu says

My international ETF's continue to suck ass. I don't know where all the ex-US optimism is coming from. They'd have to go on a multi-year +20% tear vs. US ETF's to even get close to catching up to good ole VTI.

Past performance does not guarantee future results, duh.

PS. Yurp is increasing military spending, lifting debt limits and making other stimulative moves. The US is going into opposite direction towards austerity and does it aggresively. This is where Yurp used to be when their market performance lagged ours.

As long as the Fed openly considers or actively cuts rates, the dollar will continue it's decline. If this happens, then gold > $3500 by EOY, and stonks stabilized or mildly increasing.

On the bright side - commiecunt Canada is on sale again at 70 cents to the dollar. Go Globohomo Carney!

For those in the Great Lakes region, get your strippers on sale.

stereotomy says

As long as the Fed openly considers or actively cuts rates, the dollar will continue it's decline. If this happens, then gold > $3500 by EOY, and stonks stabilized or mildly increasing.

On the bright side - commiecunt Canada is on sale again at 70 cents to the dollar. Go Globohomo Carney!

For those in the Great Lakes region, get your strippers on sale.

PCE or annual inflation has been below 3% for the last 12 months, so lets see what happens especially with sanity in the White House in regards particularly to gasoline and egg prices.

I think the housing balloon will continue to slowly let the air out but I expect the floor will be around 25% below all-time-high prices set around mid-2022.

The Fed Funds rate is around 4.5% which is in a good position given annual inflation remains below 3%.

I just don't know if the unemployment rate which has steadied at 4% since January 2022 is a good indicator of the economy's condition.

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AD says

I think the housing balloon will continue to slowly let the air out but I expect the floor will be around 25% below all-time-high prices set around mid-2022.

Agreed but 30%. Then it will be frozen for a decade, like it was in the 60s.

In the 60s, the Greatest already was housed; the Silents were a much smaller generation, and the Boomers were mostly not yet in homebuying ages.

Florida is having net outflow of under 45s due to the well-below average wages but no longer low cost of living.

Demographics can't be stopped, and it'll be more pronounced if mass migration gets under control.

AmericanKulak says

AD says

I think the housing balloon will continue to slowly let the air out but I expect the floor will be around 25% below all-time-high prices set around mid-2022.

Agreed but 30%. Then it will be frozen for a decade, like it was in the 60s.

In the 60s, the Greatest already was housed; the Silents were a much smaller generation, and the Boomers were mostly not yet in homebuying ages.

Florida is having net outflow of under 45s due to the well-below average wages but no longer low cost of living.

Demographics can't be stopped, and it'll be more pronounced if mass migration gets under control.

We bought our brand new townhome for $187000 in 2016 and is about 2 miles from the beach in the Florida panhandle. I figure the all time high price was $330,000 so a 30% cut is $231,000.

The same townhome was selling for $240,000 in May 2020, so that essentially wipes out the COVID gain :-(

I'm okay our townhome being frozen in price as we are paying about $450 per month toward principal for the mortgage and have about $148,000 as a mortgage balance.

It will benefit working class families with household income increasing 2% annually while housing prices (and interest rates) are frozen.

As far as Florida demographics, I heard on Coast to Coast AM right now a demographics expert saying the peak of baby boomers were born around 1960 to 1962, so they still be moving to Florida at retirement age 65 to 70 within the next few years or so.

Also I noticed a lot more Hispanics and Latinos in the Florida panhandle with a lot of Cuban restaurants starting up. And I noticed diversification of the economy in the Florida panhandle.

Also I hear on Coast to Coast AM now about population decline and less labor, but what about productivity gains such as through robotics and automation to compensate for this ?

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AD says

As far as Florida demographics, I heard on Coast to Coast AM right now a demographics expert saying the peak of baby boomers were born around 1960 to 1962, so they still be moving to Florida at retirement age 65 to 70 within the next few years or so.

That ship has sailed. Boomers that can retire already did. And if they wanted to move they already did. Anyone government wise (Cops, Firefighters, teachers, etc.) retires around 60 or even earlier. Private sector if you haven't retired, you're going to work until you're 80 or can't work anymore. You aren't moving except into assisted living facilities.

That's the reason FL had a boom there for a hot minute. Fortunately any mortgages should be solid and a lot were all cash purchases. I think a 20-30% drop in FL would be extreme, but I don't know the build rate down there. Most builders around here do it by contract, not just build it and they will come. Not sure how FL operates.

Stocks seem to be doing OK today despite the tariffs kicking in.

HeadSet says

Stocks seem to be doing OK today despite the tariffs kicking in.

Tariff announcement is scheduled for 1pm PT. Nobody knows nothing until then.

WOW, the shit is tanking after hours.

WookieMan says

AD says
As far as Florida demographics, I heard on Coast to Coast AM right now a demographics expert saying the peak of baby boomers were born around 1960 to 1962, so they still be moving to Florida at retirement age 65 to 70 within the next few years or so.

That ship has sailed. Boomers that can retire already did. And if they wanted to move they already did. Anyone government wise (Cops, Firefighters, teachers, etc.) retires around 60 or even earlier. Private sector if you haven't retired, you're going to work until you're 80 or can't work anymore. You aren't moving except into assisted living facilities.

In Florida they build on speculation because at least 80% of new homes are in HOAs (single detached homes, townhomes and condos), or are rental apartment complexes.

They stopped construction on "Hathaway Luxury Apartments" (owned by RD Offutt Company a North Dakota agriculture company) in Panama City Beach after they broke ground around June 2024.

The large apartment complexes on the beach may collude via Real Page app on rent prices, but its hard to control the plethora of townhome rentals on the beach, which are renting near 2021 price levels.

I see still those born 1960 and later who are retiring as teachers, firemen and police from the Democrat shitholes like Illinois and New Jersey moving down to Florida with their hefty pensions and selling their $850,000 bungalows to buy a brand new $425,000 home in Panama City or nearby Lynn Haven.

The Florida panhandle is becoming a haven for retirees on public pensions.
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Eric Holder says

WOW, the shit is tanking after hours.

Where? I am seeing stocks rise.

HeadSet says

Eric Holder says

WOW, the shit is tanking after hours.

Where? I am seeing stocks rise.

Huh? Are you sure you are looking at the after hours quotes and not the numbers at close?

RWSGFY says

Huh? Are you sure you are looking at the after hours quotes and not the numbers at close?

yeah Trump's 4 pm Eastern Standard Time press conference on tariffs should not have been a surprise as even Amazon was down at least 5% in after hours trading today

the prices already factored in Trump's tariff announcements, so it seems like an extreme overreaction

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RWSGFY says

re you sure you are looking at the after hours quotes and not the numbers at close?

I was looking at numbers at close. I thought my spreadsheet updated after hours but apparently not.

AD says

it seems like an extreme overreaction

Could mean great buying opportunity.

AD says

the prices already factored in Trump's tariff announcements, so it seems like an extreme overreaction

If they were factored in there won't be any stock movement, but there was. The announced tariffs were definitely higher than what every pundit was predicting for the last weeks.

Eric Holder says

AD says

the prices already factored in Trump's tariff announcements, so it seems like an extreme overreaction

If they were factored in there won't be any stock movement, but there was. The announced tariffs were definitely higher than what every pundit was predicting for the last weeks.

Theoretically yes, in a highly efficient market then it should be fully priced in

But yes, I think Trump announced new tariffs at today's conference that was a surprise to many

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2025-04-02/trump-reciprocal-tariffs

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Gold is north of $3150 right now. See you later stonks.

stereotomy says

Gold is north of $3150 right now. See you later stonks.

I have stocks, real estate and cash, but no gold or bitcoin. I would hate to see gold and bitcoin be something I should have bought.

stereotomy says

Gold is north of $3150 right now. See you later stonks.

Gold should go up with inflation or the threat of inflation. I suspect the gold bugs or gold traders are forecasting higher inflation (because of the tariffs, deficit spending, etc).

Birdbrain Biden's 2023 deficit was $1.65 trillion and 2024 deficit was $1.9 trillion. I am hoping the fiscal year 2025 deficit is no more than 3% greater than the 2024 deficit.

Inflation Adjusted Gold Prices Chart , note spike in gold prices during Carter admin and then gradual decline in gold prices from 1981 to 2000, which was a boom period for "growth stocks"



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There must still be a relative oversupply or glut of silver as it is way below its inflation-adjusted and all time high price set around 1980.

Silver is found at a higher rate than gold, so maybe that explains it.

Patrick says

Silver is found at a higher rate than gold, so maybe that explains it.

Hopefully for silver bugs there is a significant increase in industrial applications of silver.

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Swimming in the sea of red ink.

RWSGFY says

HeadSet says

Eric Holder says

WOW, the shit is tanking after hours.

Where? I am seeing stocks rise.

Huh? Are you sure you are looking at the after hours quotes and not the numbers at close?

And today I am down about $95k from just yesterday at close. These are long term holds, so just a paper loss as they should still pay dividends.

Anybody doing any buys?

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Yeah Amazon down 7% today. Okay, so the S&P 500's real or inflation adjusted return since October 2021 is nearly 0%.

So the wealth effect from stocks has taken a beating over the last 2 months as Trump's policies appear to impact the top 10% to 20% who own most of the stock market.

Recall the top 10% account for 50% of consumer spending.

So maybe the couple with $3 million in stocks does not splurge as much on vacation to Hawaii this year, and that lowers the price from $500 a night to $400 a night.

But what does lowering the wealth effect do to inflation as far as the working class ? How does it lower their living expenses like food, gas, and rent ?

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HeadSet says

Anybody doing any buys?

24 April 2025 is the next earnings call for GOOGL. Its P/E is lower than the S&P 500 which is remarkable given its a tech company.

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Year to Date returns

DeportLibtards says

I don't see China willingly coming to the trade negotiations table with Trump.

A lot of this is a cultural issue as China is about saving face and also just reinforcing its existing business practices which may mean require its slave workforce of its state-owned industries to work harder to compensate for the new tariffs.

Two-thirds of Apple's sales are from iPhones :-/
https://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/022316/economics-iphone-aapl.asp

And Apple's profit margin in 2024 on iPhone sales was at least 50%.

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tariffs smariffs......pump and dump....elites and their buddies dump....then later buy the dip....have enought left over for another mansion, another yacht, and another gulfstream. And blame it on trump...all around win for them...who loses? retail investors...

komputodo says

tariffs smariffs......pump and dump....elites and their buddies dump....then later buy the dip....have enought left over for another mansion, another yacht, and another gulfstream. And blame it on trump...all around win for them...who loses? retail investors...

yeah I wonder how much insider trading is going on especially with friends of Trumps friends or those that pay to get inside info from the friends of Trump friends

and especially this as far as the stock options market

you can get serious fucked over selling covered calls on volatile stocks like Amazon even those that have DTE within 5 days

retail investors need to have the strong stomach for this and don't panic sell on blue chip stocks like AMZN, GOOGL, etc.

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Ah, Buffett was very heavily into cash lately.

It's almost like he gets inside info of what going to happen before it happens, unlike the rest of us. Just sayin.

HeadSet says

RWSGFY says

HeadSet says

Eric Holder says

WOW, the shit is tanking after hours.

Where? I am seeing stocks rise.

Huh? Are you sure you are looking at the after hours quotes and not the numbers at close?

And today I am down about $95k from just yesterday at close. These are long term holds, so just a paper loss as they should still pay dividends.

Anybody doing any buys?

Too early for that: Donnie's madness is far from being exhausted. It's fucking Afgh withdrawal all over again: take a supposedly good idea and fuck it up 7 ways till Sunday with moronic execution.

PS. Now I'm sure Potato did execute Donnie's plan to a T, LOL. He probably wanted to hang the whole thing around his neck, but it didn't work out.