patrick.net

In the July New York Times/Siena poll, Biden is losing to Trump by 23 points among working-class likely voters. In their June poll, which was closer to the running average of the polls, Trump led by 17 points among working-class likely voters. Either way, this is a massive shift from the 2020 election where Trump carried these voters by only 4 points and mostly explains why Trump is running ahead this year.

New York Times/Siena also did two July state polls in Pennsylvania and Virginia. Pennsylvania is generally viewed as being the “tipping point” state in this election—the state that, if carried by Trump, would tip the electoral college in his favor. In the Times Pennsylvania poll, where Trump’s lead over Biden is the same as in the polling averages, Trump is carrying likely working-class voters in the state by 18 points. That’s double his 9 point lead among these voters in 2020, according to States of Change data.

Even more striking, in Virginia, a state Biden carried by 10 points, the Times poll has Biden ahead by just 3 points (shockingly, the state is now tied in the RCP running average). In the poll, Trump is carrying likely working-class voters in the state by 24 points. That compares to a mere 6 point margin for Trump among these voters in 2020 and can account for why the state is now so close.