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Polls, betting markets and election prediction thread


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2024 Sep 18, 3:19pm   2,362 views  188 comments

by mell   ➕follow (10)   💰tip   ignore  

The divergence has started between the partisan polls on each side and the neutral pollsters (if any).

Also the betting markets currently hold harris as favorite although the swing states stay hotly contested while Trump survives assassination attempt after attempt.

One would think they would move in the opposite direction which is a bit disturbing, but it may just be partisan hackery to add insult to injury.

Teamsters overwhelmingly voted in favor of Trump, do we have more liberal arts majors than working class to explain the polls?

Make your predictions here, or not ;)

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187   DemocratsAreTotallyFucked   2024 Nov 4, 11:51pm  

WookieMan says


Tell that to someone that bets on the horses.


I will. Along with a justified barrage pissing over the crappy education they got.

Betting isn't a poll on horses any more than they are on voters. Period.
188   Tenpoundbass   2024 Nov 5, 5:21am  

WookieMan says

Human sports not so much since officials, coaches and players can all fix a game. Owners of horses want the breeding values which is millions of dollars. They want them to win. One good horse and you're retired.


Horse owners rig their races to put their horses over for the biggest purse all the time.
If you pay attention to the racing forms, and follow the race results. There are subtle things they do that is legal but intentional to skew the results.
On the racing form, you'll see track heats the horse ran for the last weeks or months. If a horse is a favorite because of the way the horse has been running during training. You'll also see that the horse has been training with a certain Jockey during those laps. On race day the horse is a favorite, but on the day of the race the trainer or owner will replace that jockey with another jockey. Horses are partial to favorite Jockeys. The horse may not run as well. The team behind the horse does this, because the horse is a favorite paying out crappy odds. So they'll do this for a couple races, so fans don't think the horse is a good horse, even though his test runs makes him seem fast. Eventually the horse will stop being a favorite and more of a longshot. Then they'll put the horses favorite jockey on him and the horse will win. The purse for winning a race isn't always as big as the gambling proceeds they can win.

They do this with new horses that are up and coming. They will also do this with horses that were in the group of winners but not the winner of last years major racing cups. To bring them back down in stature. SO they can put them over to win on bets.

They also may over water them, or give them too much water to drink right before they race. That is what you should be looking for when betters are inspecting the horses at the paddock before the race. But most people are looking at the horse in their favorite color leggings, and blinders. They don't know what people are looking at or for.

Once the horse does win a major cup or race. They sell the horse to other racers, who will probably just race them and not monkey around with the elements that maximizes the most gambling wins, and are pushing the horse to win races for the glory of the photo ops and trophies. And of course the puny purse.

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