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Polls, betting markets and election prediction thread


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2024 Sep 18, 3:19pm   2,744 views  199 comments

by mell   ➕follow (10)   💰tip   ignore  

The divergence has started between the partisan polls on each side and the neutral pollsters (if any).

Also the betting markets currently hold harris as favorite although the swing states stay hotly contested while Trump survives assassination attempt after attempt.

One would think they would move in the opposite direction which is a bit disturbing, but it may just be partisan hackery to add insult to injury.

Teamsters overwhelmingly voted in favor of Trump, do we have more liberal arts majors than working class to explain the polls?

Make your predictions here, or not ;)

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74   WookieMan   2024 Oct 18, 6:09am  

Ceffer says

Somebody put a Trump sticker on our mailbox in Santa Cruz when we were at the other location.

That's a felony.

And yes, he'll win. I think Dem turnout is going to be low. Unless there's a Senate seat or House seat in your area you're passionate about as a Dem. After 2020 I think the lazy R voters are going to make sure they vote. I think a good 2-5% more turnout on Conservative side and 1-2% turnout drop on the D side. Turnout is going to be the key.

She can't lose one of the swing states basically. She'll lose 2 at least and I think maybe all of the upper midwest besides IL. It would take a Texas miracle for her to win. Don't see that happening, though it could be close.
75   DOGEWontAmountToShit   2024 Oct 18, 9:27am  

WookieMan says

I think Dem turnout is going to be low.


Women out vote men a lot because they actually vote. Like old ppl vote.
76   mell   2024 Oct 18, 10:40am  

DemocratsAreTotallyFucked says

WookieMan says


I think Dem turnout is going to be low.


Women out vote men a lot because they actually vote. Like old ppl vote.

Because they work far less than men
77   DOGEWontAmountToShit   2024 Oct 18, 10:46am  

mell says


Because they work far less than men


Nope. It's because men in general don't bother with it.

Most femiNazi karens work. Even if they are bullshit jobs.

https://patrick.net/post/1381874/2024-08-14-bots-brides-of-the-state
78   mell   2024 Oct 18, 12:56pm  

DemocratsAreTotallyFucked says

mell says



Because they work far less than men


Nope. It's because men in general don't bother with it.

Most femiNazi karens work. Even if they are bullshit jobs.

https://patrick.net/post/1381874/2024-08-14-bots-brides-of-the-state

They don't work, they pretend to. If they have something better to do they will drop everything on the spot, at least for corporate jobs. They have much more time than men to go to the spa, get a manicure, or vote for that matter
79   WookieMan   2024 Oct 18, 2:42pm  

mell says

Because they work far less than men

Eh, can't say I agree with this. Men are just lazy in most cases. I live in a different part of the country, but I'll take my golf cart drinking a beer to the voting location playing some music at a respectful volume.

The problem is cities. It seems like it should be convenient. It's not. Should be close by. It's not. It why Dems can ballot harvest so well or organize transportation for older or illegals to vote. The republican men in cities are idiots. It's not that they're working, they're just lazy.

There's not a state I know of where a company can penalize you if you're late because of voting. IL should be red. The city men just give up. I'm sure it's similar in CA. Why vote? It doesn't count. That shit needs to stop.
80   DOGEWontAmountToShit   2024 Oct 18, 3:08pm  

mell says

vote for that matter


Men DO NOT VOTE compared to women even when they have the free time, period.
82   DOGEWontAmountToShit   2024 Oct 18, 3:33pm  

DemocratsAreTotallyFucked says

mell says


vote for that matter


Men DO NOT VOTE compared to women even when they have the free time, period.


On.the good news front, although this is anecdotal:

MSNBC: We should note, we did not find a single person who audibly would tell us that they voted for Kamala Harris. These were Trump supporters getting out to vote early in the all-important Mojave County. Take a listen to some of our conversations.

VOTER: Well, the difference is gonna be that we're -- everybody's coming out early.

MSNBC: Why did you vote early this year?

VOTER #2: Honestly, because Donald Trump told me to.

MSNBC: We went one man who did not vote in 2020, but he said he was horrified by the state of the country, so he's voting here in 2024.


https://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2024/10/17/jesse_watters_kamala_harris_faltering_candidacy_threatens_the_end_of_the_obama-biden_era.html
83   WookieMan   2024 Oct 18, 4:34pm  

DemocratsAreTotallyFucked says

Men DO NOT VOTE compared to women even when they have the free time, period.

Don't think that will hold true this time. Problem is swing states are dictated by individual districts and a few votes. I think blacks will be the deciding factor. Trump I think has seen a 10 point swing since 2016 in male blacks.

If that's the case PA, MI, WI and MN are all red. He could lose NV and AZ in that scenario. I think he wins them though. Might be some violence but I think the left LGBTQ group tucks their dick between their legs and walks away on this one.

0 people voted for Kamala in a primary. Maybe a write in I suppose. Some of the female candidates in '20 were pretty bright. Confident. Kamala 8 years later is still an idiot. They didn't like round 1, not sure why they like her now either after 3.5 years of bull shit she's been a part of.
84   mell   2024 Oct 18, 7:20pm  

WookieMan says

mell says


Because they work far less than men

Eh, can't say I agree with this. Men are just lazy in most cases. I live in a different part of the country, but I'll take my golf cart drinking a beer to the voting location playing some music at a respectful volume.

The problem is cities. It seems like it should be convenient. It's not. Should be close by. It's not. It why Dems can ballot harvest so well or organize transportation for older or illegals to vote. The republican men in cities are idiots. It's not that they're working, they're just lazy.

There's not a state I know of where a company can penalize you if you're late because of voting. IL should be red. The city men just give up. I'm sure it's similar in CA. Why vote? It doesn't count. That shit needs to stop.

It's a generalization with exceptions as usual, but for the most part true. It's in their biology to nest, bear and raise children, not to work.
85   komputodo   2024 Oct 18, 8:29pm  

WookieMan says

They didn't like round 1, not sure why they like her now either after 3.5 years of bull shit she's been a part of.

i don't think they like her...I think it's more like they hate TRUMP.
87   Ceffer   2024 Oct 19, 12:53pm  

Scraping the bottom of the barrel for the last daft idiot in the Idiopolous. Hail the Chris Wallace Assertion Fallacy! Hail the Owl Glasses and the talking head toupee! Like AF used to say, that's a face you just want to smash a fist into.

https://t.me/WeTheMedia/110061
88   Ceffer   2024 Oct 19, 1:03pm  

"KamalaToe, you ignorant slut. Move over and let the Illuminati Witch Bad Girl take over the reins of Armageddon."

https://t.me/tribunalsandexecutions/485560
91   DOGEWontAmountToShit   2024 Oct 20, 2:41pm  

Nate Silver and the PolyMarket Scam:

He suckers betters into putting their money towards one candidate...then pulls the football away at the last minute so that the House can clean up.

You all know Nate works for PolyMarket, right?




92   RWSGFY   2024 Oct 20, 3:15pm  

“If you can't spot the sucker in the first half hour at the table, then you are the sucker.”
94   DOGEWontAmountToShit   2024 Oct 21, 12:39pm  

This article is actually an analysis of the state of the election, with the Trump Stunt @ Mickey D's only part of it;



https://hotair.com/generalissimo/2024/10/21/when-kamalas-joy-got-trumped-by-a-happy-meal-n3796069
97   Eric Holder   2024 Oct 22, 4:24pm  

What were "betting markets" predicting 2 weeks before 2020 election? 2016?
98   WookieMan   2024 Oct 22, 5:28pm  

Patrick says





She looks like shit regardless of polling or anything else. If she can't take care of herself, I ain't voting for her. She looks like a fucking turkey.

Trump is overweight, but shows up 10-16 hours a day. Kamala cannot say that.
99   DOGEWontAmountToShit   2024 Oct 22, 9:27pm  

One of the few talking heads on TV that has an actual brain:

101   clambo   2024 Oct 22, 9:47pm  

How the fuck do they get polling "extremely close"?
Don't they call land lines and usually welfare queens and other losers are home watching TV and answer the poll?
Welfare queens and assorted losers of course aren't going to be big Trump fans.
102   RWSGFY   2024 Oct 23, 10:50am  

One would think they at least switched to calling cell phones by now... I mean, it's been 8 years since their last fuckup, enough time to learn.

On the other hand some party operative said that public polls have always been mostly useless and one should only pay attention to closed ones ordered by the parties and candidates. We, of course, have no access to such things.
103   Ceffer   2024 Oct 23, 11:05am  

Election isn't close by a longshit and everybody knows it. The DELUSION of close is the goal to make the cheat appear credible.

You can't hate these people enough.
105   zzyzzx   2024 Oct 29, 10:28am  

RWSGFY says

one should only pay attention to closed ones ordered by the parties and candidates. We, of course, have no access to such things.


We don't have access to those things, but when you see Trump holding rallies in NY, that should tell you something.
106   WookieMan   2024 Oct 29, 1:10pm  

zzyzzx says

one should only pay attention to closed ones ordered by the parties and candidates. We, of course, have no access to such things.

We don't have access to those things, but when you see Trump holding rallies in NY, that should tell you something.

I don't think it's impossible he could win NY. I'd be slightly shocked, but I do think it's a possibility. No one even voted for Kamala. Turnout is going to be abysmal for Dems.

If a man votes for her it should be automatic dick removal and jam it in a purple haired lesbians mouth.

I hate typing this stuff on the internet at risk of being correct and questioned, but I don't think Trump makes it to election day. I am voting for him to be clear to any bots scanning webpages. If anything he should pull a Biden and get in the basement now or just do podcasts for the next week.

Wisconsin he'd hit a home run with Charlie Berens and the You Betcha guy in WI and the Midwest if he jumped on that show. It would overlap MN, IL and MI. He's not really a podcaster, but if he can do 30 minutes with Trump he'll win some women over in the surrounding states. For whatever reason women find the act they put on to be hysterical. About 3M subs between the two and likely mostly midwest. It would be a good 30-60 minute interview bet if he has staffers that stumble upon patnet for some crazy reason.
107   DOGEWontAmountToShit   2024 Oct 29, 1:11pm  

Just did my ballot. RFK, Jr was on it.
108   HeadSet   2024 Oct 29, 3:37pm  

DemocratsAreTotallyFucked says

Just did my ballot. RFK, Jr was on it.

What state?
112   RWSGFY   2024 Oct 30, 5:26pm  

Booger says






What did that Miller dude predict for 2020 and 2016?
113   Patrick   2024 Oct 30, 6:57pm  

DemocratsAreTotallyFucked says







I think AI bots are out in the millions now, telling Republicans not to vote because it's hopeless, they'll cheat again, blah blah.

But we all MUST vote for Trump if only to indicate to the deep state scum how much we hate them all.

And I think there's a damn good chance of a Trump landslide, but only if we all vote.

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