On 1 January 2025, a major contract governing the transit of Russian gas through Ukraine will end, with significant implications for remaining Russian gas exports to some European Union countries. Despite the war in Ukraine, gas has continued to flow through a pipeline via the country and there has been no significant disruption to these gas supplies so far, even though Ukraine as part of its incursion into Russia’s Kursk region has taken control of the only active metering station for the entry of Russian gas to Ukraine, at Sudzha.
The end of the transit contract will mark an important shift because gas via Ukraine governed by the contract currently accounts for half of Russia’s remaining pipeline gas exports to the EU and a third of total Russian gas exports, including LNG. The impact will be felt especially in Austria, Hungary and Slovakia, for which the Ukrainian transit route met 65 percent of gas demand in 2023 (IEA, 2024a).
Ukraine stands to lose fees equivalent to about 0.5 percent of GDP from ending the transit contract and risks undermining its strategic role as an energy partner for Europe (for example, as a provider of gas storage). Moreover, Ukraine’s gas infrastructure, which is so far largely undamaged, could become a military target if Russian gas is no longer in Ukraine’s pipelines. While independent stress tests have confirmed the reliability of Ukraine’s gas infrastructure in extreme scenarios, including potential attacks, the risk of targeted attacks remains a serious concern, especially ahead of winter.
Most of these countries have large amounts of reserves stored. Esp Austria. So they probably won't immediately go dark.
But they will probably become more super aggressive in being Russia's proxy on the EU Council of Ministers. They might kill future funding of the Ukrainian war effort, for example. Which would put the EU on a collision course with Donald J. Trump.
invite response
https://www.bruegel.org/analysis/end-russian-gas-transit-ukraine-and-options-eu
Most of these countries have large amounts of reserves stored. Esp Austria. So they probably won't immediately go dark.
But they will probably become more super aggressive in being Russia's proxy on the EU Council of Ministers. They might kill future funding of the Ukrainian war effort, for example. Which would put the EU on a collision course with Donald J. Trump.
Glorious!