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About a confusing life: science for Orban and Fico "do not dig a hole for others, because ..." Or about interesting opportunities that have opened up for Ukraine. (Part One 1/2)

🗣 Yesterday, Prime Minister Fico released a video address to the President of Ukraine with a request for a meeting. This video was special, because the Prime Minister's rhetoric was quite unusually positive and flattering.

To understand what was going on, we need to go back to past events⤵️

Before Fico's video was released, a Slovak delegation led by Danko held negotiations in Moscow on alternative gas supplies. Moreover, the Slovak delegation consisted of more than 15 high-ranking officials, which emphasized Bratislava's intentions to get a decision already.

Let's go back even further⤵️

Before Danko's trip to Moscow, at parliamentary hearings, Fico justified his trip by saying that Putin had promised him that Slovakia would receive gas despite Ukraine's decision. Fico did not explain the details of "how" (he obviously meant through "Turkish streams" in addition to a share of the reverse from Hungary). Believing that Kyiv could be rolled, Fico sent Danko to Moscow for negotiations to sign agreements.

Let's go back even further⤵️

Before going to Moscow, Fico filed complaints with the European Commission, but according to both Slovak politicians and numerous Western media outlets, Brussels was not very interested in Fico's problems.

Let's go back to the first days of the year⤵️

🇺🇦 Ukraine will block transit on January 1, 2025. In 2024, EU countries imported Moscow gas by pipeline in the amount of 32 billion cubic meters, of which 15.4 billion cubic meters were transited through Ukraine, and the rest - through Turkish streams.

➡️ Of the 15.4 billion cubic meters that went through Ukraine, 13.5 billion cubic meters went directly to Slovakia, while Slovakia's own needs were 5.6–5.8 billion. The distribution of the remaining gas was, in fact, the "corruption scheme" that diplomats in Ukraine spoke about. It consisted in the fact that the Slovaks "Europeanized" the remaining gas in the amount of 7-8 billion and actually resold it in reverse to neighboring countries, receiving profits with the risk of corruption.

➡️ Thus, Fico needs pipeline and Moscow gas, because this is how the "gray income system" breaks down.

Putin, in his own style, promised that everything would be “OK”. Fico is preparing a delegation led by Danko for a trip to Moscow, and he himself is starting a series of threats against Ukraine.

But, as I like to say, it turned out: “Oh, God, Putin is a cunt”.

Obviously, by “we will solve” Putin was thinking about the Turkish streams (two branches). The thing is that the only pipeline route that remains from Moscow to Europe is the two branches of the “Turkish streams”. Therefore, Putin thought of simply increasing transit through them.

➡️ But here it “didn’t work out”, because the Turks stated that they had no free capacity for transit. It’s not just that there is nothing to block the “15 billion Ukrainian volumes” that were released on January 1, but in general.

The problem is that both Turkish branches are already operating at maximum capacity. Former head of the BOTAŞ gas procurement department Ali Arif Aktürk said that the "Turkish Stream-2" thread is currently operating at full capacity and reported that "it is impossible to replace the volume from Ukraine via Turkey" 🗣: "The thing is that we are talking about the need to additionally transit 11-15 billion cubic meters, which we simply do not have."

💬 The two Turkish branches, each with a capacity of 15.75 billion, worked at their maximum in 2024, transiting over 31 billion. Of the 31.5 billion cubic meters of gas imported through Turkish streams, only 16.6 billion went to Europe, because the rest is consumed by Turkey.

⏩ Therefore, without someone giving up their own reserved volumes in the pipe, Slovakia will not receive Moscow gas in the volumes that Fico needs. And this truth, and therefore the lie from Putin, was found out by Danko yesterday, and this provoked Fico to react accordingly.

Putin is ready to “give Fico everything”, but only through the Ukrainian pipe. The thing is that yesterday Moscow also discovered one amazing thing for itself: “Its once diversified pipeline transit to Europe until February 24 is now confined to only one Turkish branch, because the second one serves purely the needs of Ankara, and the other one serves buyers from Europe (mainly Orban).

*Continued in the next post👇

*Continued (Part Two 2/2)

💬 I will not comment on the information about whether something was flying in the sky of the Krasnodar Territory over the Ruska compressor station. There are no official statements of refutation or confirmation - neither from our side nor from Turkey. So how can an ordinary person know. There are only frightened eyes in Hungary and on the same day interesting movements of Fico, who receives the last Moscow gas via reverse from Hungary.

I will note a few points just for reflection:

🛑This station affects the branch that goes to Hungary (65%) and Serbia (20%), and to other Europeans through reverse (15%). That is, it does not affect the volume of gas that Ankara receives for itself through the second branch.

🛑 If something happens to the gas compressor stations in Moscow, which are responsible for the pressure for gas supply via the Turkish branch to Hungary and Serbia, it will not affect how much money Turkey receives for transit.

It will turn out that there is such a thing as a pipe reservation and a prepayment under the contract and that Ankara does not actually care what problems there are with the pressure in the pipe in Moscow or in Putin's head.

🛑 The Austrians will not let anyone lie that if there is a contract, buyers do not care what problems there are for sellers.

🛑 Somehow all this coincides with the fact that Turkey has announced ambitious plans to sell its "Black Sea" and "Syrian" gas to Europe. Therefore, hypothetically (one can say so) Turkey personally may not mind "liberating the market", avoiding any accusations from Moscow. At the same time, some kind of "incomprehensibility" in Moscow does not affect the infrastructure capabilities of the Turkish GTS.

🛑Even American LNG exporters may like such exciting and incomprehensible events in some cases.

🛑In Hungary, relations with the EU countries have somehow not developed. Therefore, Brussels is not very worried about how Moscow should apply pressure to the pipe for Hungarian needs. As well as the fact that in 4 months the election year will begin for Orban.

Most in the world took into account purely "commercial" components, assessing Ukraine's refusal to transit Moscow gas (what Ukraine will lose, and how much Moscow will lose). But they missed an interesting state of affairs.

This situation “somehow happened”, which opens up the possibility of an exciting “game”, when the entire volume of pipeline exports of Moscow gas is driven into one branch and the gas in this branch is mainly intended for Hungary, which is not very friendly to Ukraine.

And, as they say, war is an unpredictable thing, especially these unpredictable “fragments”: one was blown away by the wind here, another here, and there is also a “cyborg pigeon from biolaboratories”.

Although under certain circumstances, the fragments can be more predictable, if someone gives the diplomacy of one beautiful country the opportunity to calmly open negotiation clusters, unblock billions for weapons in the European Peace Fund and resolve certain sanctions needs.

It is more interesting to “play” with the three of us. Isn’t that right, Mr. Orban and Mr. Fico?