patrick.net

Misc says

So, what is the average age of a first time home buyer ????

Answer: 40

A new all time high. No need to make it look even more extreme than it is.

Median seems more appropriate here tho.

MolotovCocktail says

Explain that. Why millennials?

MolotovCocktail says

Which will completely collapse when Millenials and some Older Xers inherit

DemoralizerOfPanicans says

Which will completely collapse when Millenials and some Older Xers inherit

Housing Experts of PatNet when told that:

DemoralizerOfPanicans says

Which will completely collapse when Millenials and some Older Xers inherit

Yep, and its all based on demographics and economics for each zip code.

Some of those baby boomer homes may get demolished because they are at least 80 years old and in terrible condition.

I know for my county (Bay County, Florida) and zip code that they follow trends and forecast, such as there is less and less migration of out of state baby boomers to my zip code.

AD says

Nationally... https://www.zillow.com/home-values/21/il/



Zestimates are trash anyway. They don't account for any improvement over the years or updates. Don't get caught up in national when 40-50% of the population lives on the coasts or near it.

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/analyst-warns-2032-demographic-crossover-point-poised-reshape-housing-market

Quick Summary: The ZeroHedge article argues that a looming “demographic crossover point” in 2032—when the number of Americans aged 80+ will surpass those aged 30–39—could profoundly reshape the U.S. housing market. Analysts warn this shift will reduce demand for large family homes while increasing pressure on senior housing, assisted living, and downsizing options.

🔑 Key Points from the Article
• Demographic crossover in 2032: For the first time, the U.S. will have more people over 80 than in the 30–39 age bracket.
• Housing demand impact:
• Fewer young households entering prime home-buying years.
• More elderly homeowners looking to downsize, sell, or move into assisted living.
• Supply-demand imbalance: This shift could create excess inventory of larger suburban homes, especially in regions with aging populations.
• Economic consequences:
• Potential downward pressure on housing prices in certain markets.
• Rising demand for smaller, accessible homes and senior-focused housing developments.
• Policy implications: Analysts suggest the U.S. may need to rethink housing policy, zoning, and retirement planning to accommodate this demographic reality.
• Investor angle: Real estate investors are advised to anticipate structural changes—favoring senior housing, multi-family units, and adaptable living spaces over traditional single-family homes.

📉 Contextual Insight
• The article frames this as a structural demographic shock, not a cyclical housing downturn.
• Unlike past housing cycles driven by interest rates or credit availability, this shift is rooted in population aging and generational replacement.
• The “max pain” for housing could be concentrated in suburban markets where baby boomers currently dominate ownership.

✅ Takeaway
The 2032 demographic crossover is portrayed as a turning point for U.S. housing, with fewer young buyers and more elderly sellers reshaping demand. The article warns that investors, policymakers, and communities must prepare for a market increasingly driven by aging households rather than first-time buyers.

Really! I thought boomers are already living in small houses. There could be some demand for old age homes at best.
In either case I believe inflation will push all shacks up irrespective of their shape and size in most markets.

Downsizing is and will cause much problems.

Blue says

I thought boomers are already living in small houses. There could be some demand for old age homes at best.
In either case I believe inflation will push all shacks up irrespective of their shape and size in most markets.

The senior "apartments/condos" are becoming popular here in IL. In the last 5 years in a neighboring town of ~10k population they put up probably 300 units for senior living. My observation is that most living there are female and were blue collar. Likely getting their SS and their deceased husbands or they had pensions.

The one thing I've notice as a country club snob when I was a kid, all of my parents friends are staying put in their big houses. Most I knew had businesses or wealth of $5-10M by 55. You can live pretty healthy just putting that in a CD or a REIT for dividends or some other semi safe investment. Most as far as I know are paid off.

My mom actually upsized buying my house. Now she's traveling in Europe with my sister and my nieces. She doesn't know how to spend her money. Teacher, so pension and health are covered. Paid cash. $1M in the bank and $90k/yr for a widow. Then SS. With interest on the money in the bank probably looking at $120k/yr with maybe $15k of regular expenses. As a boomer she really can't run out of money.

TL:DR - The boomers that moved already have. Most stayed and will hand down the family house. The 70-80 year olds moved into studio or 1 bed condos already.

Glock-n-Load says

Downsizing is and will cause much problems.

I could be wrong but I think it’s a big myth.

I did search if that was true!
AI summary:
Downsizing is not causing a real estate market crash; in fact, the difficulty homeowners (particularly baby boomers/empty nesters) face when trying to downsize is contributing to the current low housing inventory and preventing a crash.

“Most stayed and will hand down the family house.”

I think a significant amount may use the home to finance their long-term care.

Al_Sharpton_for_President says

“Most stayed and will hand down the family house.”

I think a significant amount may use the home to finance their long-term care.

I think you’re correct there. A bunch don’t have much for retirement and the majority of their wealth is wrapped up in their house.

Blue says

Glock-n-Load says

Downsizing is and will cause much problems.

I could be wrong but I think it’s a big myth.

I did search if that was true!
AI summary:
Downsizing is not causing a real estate market crash; in fact, the difficulty homeowners (particularly baby boomers/empty nesters) face when trying to downsize is contributing to the current low housing inventory and preventing a crash.

Downsizing doesn't cause a crash. No, instead what it does is put older people with more $$ into direct competition with younger buyers with less $$. Who is going to be the winning buyer in that case? Lots of older people downsizing causes lower priced homes to rise. Often out of reach of those trying to get a start.

We need more housing. And lots of it.

DemoralizerOfPanicans says

Misc says

So, what is the average age of a first time home buyer ????

Answer: 40

A new all time high. No need to make it look even more extreme than it is.

In fairness, everybody knows the price of housing is too damn high, and nobody wants to catch a falling knife. While memories are short, most people know or can easily see recent, past 7 year price history. Seeing ranches that went for $180k in 2019 go for $300k in 2022 and still too much today at $270k, esp. factoring in rates and double digit tax/ins increases.

So the people buying right now have money to burn and most are on the sidelines due to expectations both prices and rates will drop substantially over the next year or so.

300 is in the past, went from 200 to 800

AD says

The ZeroHedge article argues that a looming “demographic crossover point” in 2032—when the number of Americans aged 80+ will surpass those aged 30–39—could profoundly reshape the U.S. housing market. Analysts warn this shift will reduce demand for large family homes while increasing pressure on senior housing, assisted living, and downsizing options.

Noooooo! REALLY???

Who has been posting about demographic effects on Housing for over two years now on PatNet?

GNL says

Downsizing doesn't cause a crash.

There won't be any meaningful downsizing. Just like there isn't any presently going on.

For reasons Patnetters have already beaten to death in detail.

Which means that article is rather academic. That's fine as long as you keep that in mind. But it also means it is rather real world adjacent, at best.

GNL says

We need more housing. And lots of it.

CBS News recently interviewed Biden's chief economic advisor who said the USA is now short about 3 million homes.

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/affordability-2025-inflation-food-prices-housing-child-care-health-costs/

Here is one perspective that indicates there wouldn’t be a “crash” unless places went through rapid growth for years.
I personally don’t believe inflation numbers presented here. It manifests into other forms and pushes the prices up.

https://www.noradarealestate.com/blog/housing-market-predictions-for-the-next-4-years-2026-2027-2028-2029/

The Big Picture: What the Experts Are Saying

Fannie Mae's latest survey, from Q3 2025, gives us a snapshot of what the brightest minds in the real estate world are predicting for home price growth. They surveyed a panel of experts and asked them to weigh in on where they see prices heading.

Here’s a breakdown of the average annual home price growth expectations from that survey:

2025: 2.4%
2026: 2.1%
2027: 2.9%
Now, these numbers might seem small compared to the eye-popping figures we saw in recent years, but that’s exactly what makes them so important. This indicates a return to a more normal, sustainable growth pattern.

https://youtu.be/fXpnOYHqWtA?si=QnCFt9UGFuz-XNf2

"We have built a retirement system that requires the next generation to be rich enough to buy our assets, while simultaneously building an economy that ensures they will be too poor to afford them.

That isn’t a retirement plan. It’s a Ponzi scheme running out of new entrants."

https://open.substack.com/pub/michaelwgreen/p/part-2-the-door-has-opened

MolotovCocktail says

"We have built a retirement system that requires the next generation to be rich enough to buy our assets, while simultaneously building an economy that ensures they will be too poor to afford them.

That isn’t a retirement plan. It’s a Ponzi scheme running out of new entrants."

https://open.substack.com/pub/michaelwgreen/p/part-2-the-door-has-opened

US government could have a DIVERSE sovereign fund like Norway (composed of gold, Bitcoin, public lands that are leased, etc).

Among this is the Bitcoin Reserve held by US Treasury, gold, and ownership of national security strategic stocks like Intel.

As well as ownership of public lands which could be leased such as harvesting of biomass (used for wood pellets) in national forests.

Just look at the government infrastructure like Navy and Coast Guard ship yards and labs like Oak Ridge National Lab as being part of that adding to the amount of VALUABLE assets owned by the American public.

AD says

Just look at the government infrastructure like Navy and Coast Guard ship yards and labs like Oak Ridge National Lab as being part of that adding to the amount of VALUABLE assets owned by the American public.

I remember reading an article ~10 years ago US national assets sans national parks were estimated to be $26 trillion +/-.

Nobody knows for sure because no comprehensive audits of total national assets has ever been conducted.

In fact house prices on average have dropped a bit in my neck of the woods in central Florida

Case/Shiller came out last week. It was up a tiny bit from the prior month, which was up a tiny bit from the month before it. The previous 3 months were a tiny bit lower.

I wouldn't read too much into any projections for big moves in the national housing market next year. Fannie/Freddie and Zillow are forecasting a 1.5-1.9% increase in housing values nationwide for 2026.

There just ain't any volume. Less than 1% of residential properties were traded this last year. There's only about 2.1 million houses for sale. At $435k average house price, that's less than $1 trillion available. The stock market went up over $7 trillion this year in comparison.

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CSUSHPISA

If Florida nixes property taxes, it's estimated that property prices would go up 7-8% in the State.

... but why stop there ???

Why not do for residential properties what the government does for corporations ????

Simply have negative property taxes.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/realestate/florida-house-price-warning-issued-over-plan-to-eliminate-property-taxes/ar-AA1RyL1D

Misc says

If Florida nixes property taxes, it's estimated that property prices would go up 7-8% in the State.

... but why stop there ???

Why not do for residential properties what the government does for corporations ????

Simply have negative property taxes.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/realestate/florida-house-price-warning-issued-over-plan-to-eliminate-property-taxes/ar-AA1RyL1D

You factoring in what their plan is to recoup the lost revenue? A special sales or capital gains surtax on sale of a home.

MolotovCocktail says

You factoring in what their plan is to recoup the lost revenue? A special sales or capital gains surtax on sale of a home.

Article says considering raising the sales tax, and/or increasing fees and other taxes. They mentioned cutting expenses, but nobody takes that seriously.

In my opinion, it is nearly criminal to make such a huge change in the state tax code. The tax would be lifted off asset owners and dumped on to non-asset owners. Yes, I know, homeowners would still have to pay consumption(?) taxes but, asset owners would have more spending power while non-asset owners would have less. In what world would any honest person think this is the right thing to do? Let home prices rise or fall on their own.

GNL says

In my opinion, it is nearly criminal to make such a huge change in the state tax code. The tax would be lifted off asset owners and dumped on to non-asset owners. Yes, I know, homeowners would still have to pay consumption(?) taxes but, asset owners would have more spending power while non-asset owners would have less. In what world would any honest person think this is the right thing to do? Let home prices rise or fall on their own.

That's the Plan.

Despite the denial many on this thread have, housing prices are going down, down, down.

Our elites know that. So resort to desperate measures like this and 30 yr mortgages in panic.

House prices in wine country have started climbing again and are only off 3% YoY (roughly), and off 6% from the post-covid all-time high.

mell says

House prices in wine country have started climbing again

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-housing-market-poised-crash-163700554.html

The 2008 housing meltdown was brutal — home values collapsed, millions of Americans were pushed into foreclosure and trillions in household wealth evaporated. Now, housing analyst Melody Wright is warning that the next downturn could be even worse.

In a recent interview with Adam Taggart on “Thoughtful Money,” Wright said the U.S. housing market is heading for a significant correction.

“I think, Adam, we're going to correct all the way to a point where household median income matches the median home price. And so that is going to be worse than 2008,” she said (1).

Wright noted that during the last crash, prices were on their way toward that equilibrium — where median incomes and median home values align — but “Wall Street came in to buy those,” effectively stopping the decline. This time, she argues, large investors may not step in.

The disconnect between home prices and household income is striking. According to Federal Reserve data, the median sales price of a U.S. home reached $410,800 in Q2 2025 — a 42% jump over the past decade.

Realtor.com estimates a typical household now needs to earn roughly $118,530 a year to afford a median-priced home (2). The actual median household income as of 2024, when the latest data was available? Just $83,730 according to the Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis. That’s a wide gap.

AD says

In a recent interview with Adam Taggart on “Thoughtful Money,” Wright said the U.S. housing market is heading for a significant correction.

Yeah. Right here: https://patrick.net/comment?comment_id=2226841

But heh! It's only going to be coastal urban hipster areas so...don't bother watching it.

MolotovCocktail says

https://youtu.be/fXpnOYHqWtA?si=QnCFt9UGFuz-XNf2

300% More Airbnbs, But 30% Less Revenue:
Data on the Airbnb Host Squeeze

https://summeros.com/research/airbnb-saturation-study-2025/

,

AD says

MolotovCocktail says

https://youtu.be/fXpnOYHqWtA?si=QnCFt9UGFuz-XNf2

300% More Airbnbs, But 30% Less Revenue:
Data on the Airbnb Host Squeeze

https://summeros.com/research/airbnb-saturation-study-2025/

,

Wow! That's some serious damage going on there.

But don't worry! It won't go past urban hipster coastal areas, I am sure.