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119
AD
2025 May 14, 8:31am
AD
2025 May 14, 8:31am
GNL says
Looks like Newsom has still not signed this into law after it was passed by the California Senate in August of last year. It would have been bad optics during the last election year, and I suspect the DNC told Newsom to shelve that bill.
Wait to see if it does become law when essentially no one is looking.
.
Looks like Newsom has still not signed this into law after it was passed by the California Senate in August of last year. It would have been bad optics during the last election year, and I suspect the DNC told Newsom to shelve that bill.
Wait to see if it does become law when essentially no one is looking.
.
123
WookieMan
2025 May 22, 7:16pm
WookieMan
2025 May 22, 7:16pm
MolotovCocktail says
So? One clearly overpriced market, reliant on one industry to keep housing afloat. No one saw that coming....
Meanwhile in IL it's just fine. Coastal areas drag down national stats and people freak out. There's no crash NATIONALLY coming.
https://wolfstreet.com/2025/05/21/as-tech-jobs-plunge-in-san-francisco-silicon-valley-housing-reacts-condo-prices-drop-back-to-2015-single-family-home-prices-back-to-2018/
So? One clearly overpriced market, reliant on one industry to keep housing afloat. No one saw that coming....
Meanwhile in IL it's just fine. Coastal areas drag down national stats and people freak out. There's no crash NATIONALLY coming.
124
AD
2025 May 22, 10:41pm
AD
2025 May 22, 10:41pm
WookieMan says
Have to examine quality of life which includes local cost of living and job market.
I hear how California is great weather, outdoors, and culture so that justifies the high cost of living compared to what jobs pay there.
Panama City Beach (and Florida) has gotten like that to some extent, but it has subsided as I notice townhome rents on the east end of Panama City Beach remain at 2021 levels since early 2024.
I loved living near Winchester, Virginia as it was cheap living, but it was good quality of life, especially with Shenandoah University having a lot ot offer year round from football, basketball , baseball and other sports to watch, as well as a music concerts and plays.
I'd live in Illinois if it was in a college town like that.
.
Meanwhile in IL it's just fine. Coastal areas drag down national stats and people freak out. There's no crash NATIONALLY coming.
Have to examine quality of life which includes local cost of living and job market.
I hear how California is great weather, outdoors, and culture so that justifies the high cost of living compared to what jobs pay there.
Panama City Beach (and Florida) has gotten like that to some extent, but it has subsided as I notice townhome rents on the east end of Panama City Beach remain at 2021 levels since early 2024.
I loved living near Winchester, Virginia as it was cheap living, but it was good quality of life, especially with Shenandoah University having a lot ot offer year round from football, basketball , baseball and other sports to watch, as well as a music concerts and plays.
I'd live in Illinois if it was in a college town like that.
.
125
AD
2025 May 23, 12:00am
AD
2025 May 23, 12:00am
WookieMan says
Housing construction in Illinois primarily will be to replace old and condemned housing.
Meanwhile in IL it's just fine. Coastal areas drag down national stats and people freak out. There's no crash NATIONALLY coming.
Housing construction in Illinois primarily will be to replace old and condemned housing.
126
WookieMan
2025 May 23, 6:33am
WookieMan
2025 May 23, 6:33am
AD says
In Chicago for sure that is correct. There are still a lot of old frame houses (not brick or block) that are falling apart. Especially in ghetto areas.
AD says
Champaign/Urbana (U of I) is about the only place in IL you'd get that vibe. Southern IL University area is not bad scenery wise and weather wise for IL. Less snow and cold but it still happens. They've got a decent following though not huge.
Northern IL U, nope. Western IL U, nope. Eastern IL U, maybe. You'd be better going to Madision, WI or South Bend, IN. Iowa City is cool too. Once you get north of I-80 winter is real. Although this year it was light on snow. Hence why we had dust storms because the soil had no moisture.
As I've said it's going sideways in IL. But they are building at replacement rate. They've been behind for 15 years since the housing crash. I know the Panhandle has had a boom in housing. I know the Water Color area to your West has built out in a big way. There was nothing there when I was a kid.
We'd go East from Navarre out of Santa Rosa county, because it was a hard liquor dry county. My dad liked his occasional gin and tonic at night. But we'd go East to leave the county. Usually do a first day trip to PCB to grab some and he was a real estate junkie and always looking. So served two purposes.
Housing construction in Illinois primarily will be to replace old and condemned housing.
In Chicago for sure that is correct. There are still a lot of old frame houses (not brick or block) that are falling apart. Especially in ghetto areas.
AD says
I'd live in Illinois if it was in a college town like that.
Champaign/Urbana (U of I) is about the only place in IL you'd get that vibe. Southern IL University area is not bad scenery wise and weather wise for IL. Less snow and cold but it still happens. They've got a decent following though not huge.
Northern IL U, nope. Western IL U, nope. Eastern IL U, maybe. You'd be better going to Madision, WI or South Bend, IN. Iowa City is cool too. Once you get north of I-80 winter is real. Although this year it was light on snow. Hence why we had dust storms because the soil had no moisture.
As I've said it's going sideways in IL. But they are building at replacement rate. They've been behind for 15 years since the housing crash. I know the Panhandle has had a boom in housing. I know the Water Color area to your West has built out in a big way. There was nothing there when I was a kid.
We'd go East from Navarre out of Santa Rosa county, because it was a hard liquor dry county. My dad liked his occasional gin and tonic at night. But we'd go East to leave the county. Usually do a first day trip to PCB to grab some and he was a real estate junkie and always looking. So served two purposes.
127
zzyzzx
2025 May 23, 6:56am
zzyzzx
2025 May 23, 6:56am
Housing prices will not go down.
https://www.fastcompany.com/91337938/housing-market-zillow-first-annual-u-s-home-price-drop-since-2011
Zillow: Housing market to see first annual U.S. home price drop since 2011
https://www.fastcompany.com/91337938/housing-market-zillow-first-annual-u-s-home-price-drop-since-2011
Zillow: Housing market to see first annual U.S. home price drop since 2011
128
MolotovCocktail
2025 May 23, 7:54am
MolotovCocktail
2025 May 23, 7:54am
WookieMan says
So? Who cares about Bumfuq, IL?
Meanwhile in IL it's just fine. Coastal areas drag down national stats and people freak out. There's no crash NATIONALLY coming.
So? Who cares about Bumfuq, IL?
129
WookieMan
2025 May 23, 8:22am
WookieMan
2025 May 23, 8:22am
MolotovCocktail says
60% of the country that doesn't live on the coasts. Sorry you lost money. I didn't. Take out CA, NY, WA, OR and no one really cares about RE prices. https://www.iowadatacenter.org/index.php/data-by-source/population-estimates/state-population-map-vintage-2023
You live in overpriced areas that are always due for correction. Smart people don't. I just want slight appreciation and have a extra little nest egg at the end of the journey and not be broke. On pace for $5M by the end of this decade. What do I know though? $150k at 3% a year without drawing it down? I'm for sure losing.... Toss in dividends and it's $225k all day. I guess living in shitty IL is soooooo bad. Oh and my house in 20-30 years will be worth $2M paid off. Hate the game, not the player.
WookieMan says
Meanwhile in IL it's just fine. Coastal areas drag down national stats and people freak out. There's no crash NATIONALLY coming.
So? Who cares about Bumfuq, IL?
60% of the country that doesn't live on the coasts. Sorry you lost money. I didn't. Take out CA, NY, WA, OR and no one really cares about RE prices. https://www.iowadatacenter.org/index.php/data-by-source/population-estimates/state-population-map-vintage-2023
You live in overpriced areas that are always due for correction. Smart people don't. I just want slight appreciation and have a extra little nest egg at the end of the journey and not be broke. On pace for $5M by the end of this decade. What do I know though? $150k at 3% a year without drawing it down? I'm for sure losing.... Toss in dividends and it's $225k all day. I guess living in shitty IL is soooooo bad. Oh and my house in 20-30 years will be worth $2M paid off. Hate the game, not the player.
130
MolotovCocktail
2025 May 23, 8:42am
MolotovCocktail
2025 May 23, 8:42am
WookieMan says
So fucking what?
The article I posted wasn't about national RE markets or Bumfuq, IL. But you pretend it somehow was and then proceed to bitch about it in that imaginary context. You do this all rhe time.
Then when someone points this out, you double down on the doing it again.
60% of the country that doesn't live on the coasts. Sorry
So fucking what?
The article I posted wasn't about national RE markets or Bumfuq, IL. But you pretend it somehow was and then proceed to bitch about it in that imaginary context. You do this all rhe time.
Then when someone points this out, you double down on the doing it again.
131
WookieMan
2025 May 23, 8:56am
WookieMan
2025 May 23, 8:56am
MolotovCocktail says
So have Pat change the site to California.net? You can't spit doom and gloom. Start a new thread with its own content. This is a housing prices will not go down thread. Not started by me. You're posting about a specific location. Start a thread on it. Thanks to Pat we can now ignore it.
All I did is commentate on my REGION, not city. Start a new thread... It's 100% okay to say that's not happening around me. You seem offended like you're losing money or something?
The article I posted wasn't about national RE markets or Bumfuq, IL. But you pretend it somehow was and then proceed to bitch about it in that imaginary context. You do this all rhe time.
So have Pat change the site to California.net? You can't spit doom and gloom. Start a new thread with its own content. This is a housing prices will not go down thread. Not started by me. You're posting about a specific location. Start a thread on it. Thanks to Pat we can now ignore it.
All I did is commentate on my REGION, not city. Start a new thread... It's 100% okay to say that's not happening around me. You seem offended like you're losing money or something?
132
HeadSet
2025 May 23, 6:21pm
HeadSet
2025 May 23, 6:21pm
AD says
Beautiful area. I remember going to the Apple Blossom Festival when I was in high school.
I loved living near Winchester, Virginia as it was cheap living, but it was good quality of life, especially with Shenandoah University having a lot ot offer year round from football, basketball , baseball and other sports to watch, as well as a music concerts and plays.
Beautiful area. I remember going to the Apple Blossom Festival when I was in high school.
133
MolotovCocktail
2025 May 27, 6:45am
MolotovCocktail
2025 May 27, 6:45am
WookieMan says
So do you. Bumfuq, IL. All the time. Nobody cares.
You're posting about a specific locatio
So do you. Bumfuq, IL. All the time. Nobody cares.
136
WookieMan
2025 Jun 1, 4:30pm
WookieMan
2025 Jun 1, 4:30pm
MolotovCocktail says
Where???? Realtors are always panicking. It's not a consistent paycheck. Clear clickbait headline. Only 1-5% of Realtors don't panic, those are the top dogs. 80% could work at McDonalds and make more. Not a joke when you factor in managing broker split. Usually around the 30/70 mark. A $500k home would net you $10,500 excluding taxes. You have to sell $5M-$7M to make a decent living. Not good. Decent.
Where???? Realtors are always panicking. It's not a consistent paycheck. Clear clickbait headline. Only 1-5% of Realtors don't panic, those are the top dogs. 80% could work at McDonalds and make more. Not a joke when you factor in managing broker split. Usually around the 30/70 mark. A $500k home would net you $10,500 excluding taxes. You have to sell $5M-$7M to make a decent living. Not good. Decent.
138
Glock-n-Load
2025 Jun 2, 8:49am
MolotovCocktail says
Isn’t that about 1,500,000 listings? Doesn’t sound like a ton of listings but, I don’t know what normal is for the entire country so…
Isn’t that about 1,500,000 listings? Doesn’t sound like a ton of listings but, I don’t know what normal is for the entire country so…
139
WookieMan
2025 Jun 2, 9:19am
WookieMan
2025 Jun 2, 9:19am
Glock-n-Load says
Doesn't matter. There is no value until it's sold. The $698B is likely a made up number because you can't know that until the house sells. List price means dick because 10-20% of listings are trial balloon listings. Eh lets see if we can sell it but they don't have to.
Doesn't mean default or anything. This has been going on for ages. Especially for people with multiple properties. People might be moving and want to get out of that market. Like cities where the highest market value generally is in that region so it looks like a big number.
I've said this all along, certain markets are going to eat shit. If this number is remotely accurate, it's going to happen in cities.
Also more bull shit posts (not you) with no link, but a screen shot from some social media page and a shitty meme. Par for the course. Information beat photos 100% of the time. Got nothing with these images.
Isn’t that about 1,500,000 listings? Doesn’t sound like a ton of listings but, I don’t know what normal is for the entire country so…
Doesn't matter. There is no value until it's sold. The $698B is likely a made up number because you can't know that until the house sells. List price means dick because 10-20% of listings are trial balloon listings. Eh lets see if we can sell it but they don't have to.
Doesn't mean default or anything. This has been going on for ages. Especially for people with multiple properties. People might be moving and want to get out of that market. Like cities where the highest market value generally is in that region so it looks like a big number.
I've said this all along, certain markets are going to eat shit. If this number is remotely accurate, it's going to happen in cities.
Also more bull shit posts (not you) with no link, but a screen shot from some social media page and a shitty meme. Par for the course. Information beat photos 100% of the time. Got nothing with these images.
140
AD
2025 Jun 2, 9:48am
AD
2025 Jun 2, 9:48am
MolotovCocktail says
The general rule is a 10% drop for a 1% increase in the 30 year mortgage rate. Assume peak price was in early 2022 at a 3% rate, and assume household income has increased by 20% since then.
Hence, home prices generally should be 72% of the all time high price set in early 2022 based on the 30 yr mortgage rate of 7% , or a 28% discount
0.6 x 1.2 = 72%
.
The general rule is a 10% drop for a 1% increase in the 30 year mortgage rate. Assume peak price was in early 2022 at a 3% rate, and assume household income has increased by 20% since then.
Hence, home prices generally should be 72% of the all time high price set in early 2022 based on the 30 yr mortgage rate of 7% , or a 28% discount
0.6 x 1.2 = 72%
.
141
AD
2025 Jun 2, 10:05am
AD
2025 Jun 2, 10:05am
WookieMan says
I agree as I just look at trends of sales price not the listing price.
I think for my zip code (Panama City Beach, FL) there is at least 35% trial balloon listings that is why I don't pay much attention to months on the market or "months of supply".
I examine HOAs with at least 100 units such as Hathaway Townhomes to achieve a reliable trend analysis.
I'll extrapolate such as sales price per square foot for townhome units with at least a 1 car garage.
.
Doesn't matter. There is no value until it's sold.
I agree as I just look at trends of sales price not the listing price.
I think for my zip code (Panama City Beach, FL) there is at least 35% trial balloon listings that is why I don't pay much attention to months on the market or "months of supply".
I examine HOAs with at least 100 units such as Hathaway Townhomes to achieve a reliable trend analysis.
I'll extrapolate such as sales price per square foot for townhome units with at least a 1 car garage.
.
144
B.A.C.A.H.
2025 Jun 8, 6:27am
B.A.C.A.H.
2025 Jun 8, 6:27am
WookieMan says
Patrick lives here in the SF Bay Area. I followed his blog since the 2006 Housing Bubble when I was looking for an alternative point of view to the Bay Area Residential Real Estate Zeitgeist at the time. He shared his experiences with Bay Area ®eatlors who were throwing gasoline on the fire during that time.
Another Bay Arean, Wolf Richter, shared this on his Wolfstreet blog in recent days. https://wolfstreet.com/2025/06/06/inventory-of-homes-for-sale-in-biggest-california-markets-suddenly-piles-up-to-highest-in-years-demand-has-collapsed/
Sure enough, after I read Wolf's article I looked up my East San Jose zip code on foreclosure.com. I don't know how accurate or complete their site is, but I saw 37 listings that are either "bankruptcy", "foreclosure", or "pre-foreclosure". Then I saw on Zillow that my East SJ sh*tbox is down about 200k from the peak of 2022.
So like Wolf's been warning, it's beginning to happen.
So have Pat change the site to California.net? You can't spit doom and gloom.
Patrick lives here in the SF Bay Area. I followed his blog since the 2006 Housing Bubble when I was looking for an alternative point of view to the Bay Area Residential Real Estate Zeitgeist at the time. He shared his experiences with Bay Area ®eatlors who were throwing gasoline on the fire during that time.
Another Bay Arean, Wolf Richter, shared this on his Wolfstreet blog in recent days. https://wolfstreet.com/2025/06/06/inventory-of-homes-for-sale-in-biggest-california-markets-suddenly-piles-up-to-highest-in-years-demand-has-collapsed/
Sure enough, after I read Wolf's article I looked up my East San Jose zip code on foreclosure.com. I don't know how accurate or complete their site is, but I saw 37 listings that are either "bankruptcy", "foreclosure", or "pre-foreclosure". Then I saw on Zillow that my East SJ sh*tbox is down about 200k from the peak of 2022.
So like Wolf's been warning, it's beginning to happen.
145
WookieMan
2025 Jun 8, 6:42am
WookieMan
2025 Jun 8, 6:42am
B.A.C.A.H. says
I understand your area might be getting it bad and as you've said you're kind of looking forward to that. The guy that changes his username weekly posted a map in the other recent housing thread that shows the midwest (outside of MN) not losing value. And MN is almost exclusively due to Minneapolis and people leaving the city. Probably still staying in state, but it drags down prices.
My perspective is substantially different than CA, TX or FL. Those are huge markets, but doing well where I'm at and neighboring states. Between IL, WI, MI, OH, IN and IA that's a decent population. Shitty winters and all. It's the reason I despise when people post overall national stats. Even state stats are misleading. Chicago is likely down, but the rest of the region is up.
So like Wolf's been warning, it's beginning to happen.
I understand your area might be getting it bad and as you've said you're kind of looking forward to that. The guy that changes his username weekly posted a map in the other recent housing thread that shows the midwest (outside of MN) not losing value. And MN is almost exclusively due to Minneapolis and people leaving the city. Probably still staying in state, but it drags down prices.
My perspective is substantially different than CA, TX or FL. Those are huge markets, but doing well where I'm at and neighboring states. Between IL, WI, MI, OH, IN and IA that's a decent population. Shitty winters and all. It's the reason I despise when people post overall national stats. Even state stats are misleading. Chicago is likely down, but the rest of the region is up.
146
MolotovCocktail
2025 Jun 8, 7:10am
MolotovCocktail
2025 Jun 8, 7:10am
WookieMan says
Parts of the country that is 'the coasts' according to WookieMan:
60% of the country that doesn't live on the coasts.
Parts of the country that is 'the coasts' according to WookieMan:
147
MolotovCocktail
2025 Jun 8, 7:11am
MolotovCocktail
2025 Jun 8, 7:11am
WookieMan says
Once again:
MolotovCocktail says
I understand your area might be getting it bad and as you've said you're kind of looking forward to that. The guy that changes his username weekly posted a map in the other recent housing thread that shows the midwest (outside of MN) not losing value. And MN is almost
Once again:
MolotovCocktail says
WookieMan says
60% of the country that doesn't live on the coasts.
Parts of the country that is 'the coasts' according to WookieMan:
148
MolotovCocktail
2025 Jun 8, 7:12am
MolotovCocktail
2025 Jun 8, 7:12am
WookieMan says
So fucking what? According to you, Oklahoma is a coastal state:
MolotovCocktail says
My perspective is substantially different than CA, TX or FL
So fucking what? According to you, Oklahoma is a coastal state:
MolotovCocktail says
WookieMan says
60% of the country that doesn't live on the coasts.
Parts of the country that is 'the coasts' according to WookieMan:
149
B.A.C.A.H.
2025 Jun 8, 8:30am
B.A.C.A.H.
2025 Jun 8, 8:30am
WookieMan says
Ha! It's not getting bad; - it's getting less bad.
I understand your area might be getting it bad
Ha! It's not getting bad; - it's getting less bad.
150
WookieMan
2025 Jun 8, 12:25pm
WookieMan
2025 Jun 8, 12:25pm
You're talking about Oklahoma or Nebraska? States with no population? IL has the 6th largest population in the country. MI is 10th. OH is 7th. NY is higher along with PA. https://www.britannica.com/topic/largest-U-S-state-by-population
These are states with no population that may have lost 5% and IF you had to sell maybe cost you $10k. Oh the horror. 15 of the states are coastal. They lost more because prices are higher. Most the US population is not losing money on houses. Nevada is Vegas and Reno. Phoenix is land locked and is a bit surprising. Missouri and Arkansas are shit holes. Nashville got overhyped.
There's an easy explanation for every state. People want to move away from liberal shit holes. Not necessarily the state, but the city. Where prices are higher. This isn't complicated. It doesn't mean prices are collapsing by any mean except for where you bough and are butt hurt about it. (Not you BACAH)
These are states with no population that may have lost 5% and IF you had to sell maybe cost you $10k. Oh the horror. 15 of the states are coastal. They lost more because prices are higher. Most the US population is not losing money on houses. Nevada is Vegas and Reno. Phoenix is land locked and is a bit surprising. Missouri and Arkansas are shit holes. Nashville got overhyped.
There's an easy explanation for every state. People want to move away from liberal shit holes. Not necessarily the state, but the city. Where prices are higher. This isn't complicated. It doesn't mean prices are collapsing by any mean except for where you bough and are butt hurt about it. (Not you BACAH)
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So the only way to decrease real prices is to decrease demand, and the only way to do that is to kick out all illegal immigrants and anchor babies. Will Trump do this? Almost certainly not. Even with control over all three branches of the government, the Republicans are not going to get rid of all the illegals who are driving up housing prices and social welfare costs. I wish that I was wrong about this, but I'm not.
The United States population reached 200 million on November 20, 1967. If there was no net migration, then the U.S. population have stabilized to about 220 million. Instead, the population is 335 million. This is why housing is so expensive. This is why rent is so damn high. This is why the younger generations cannot afford to have children. This is why the only way to keep the population from falling is to import massive numbers of unskilled, uneducated, and often criminal immigrants. Both parties are responsible for this: democrats for importing voters and republicans for importing farm laborers. Both parties want cheap labor.
When you import massive numbers of low-iq, low-skill workers, your per capital GDP declines relative to where it would have been otherwise. Yes, technological advancements mask this because technology increases GDP faster than low-skill immigration decreases it, but most of those gains don't get seen by the middle class.
Since both parties, and their corporate overlords, are benefiting from the current system, immigration will continue and housing prices will also continue to rise. I suppose I shouldn't care since I own and have a 2.25% mortgage that is being eaten away by inflation, but anyone young enough that they having bought already is fucked.