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Housing prices will not go down...


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2025 Jan 2, 7:23pm   4,427 views  170 comments

by anon5525   ➕follow (0)   ignore (0)  

... because immigration will not go down. Housing prices are controlled by supply and demand. There is no space in any urban area to build more housing. None. You can't insert land between two streets. The only way to increase supply is to steal people's homes through eminent domain and tear them down to build higher density apartments

So the only way to decrease real prices is to decrease demand, and the only way to do that is to kick out all illegal immigrants and anchor babies. Will Trump do this? Almost certainly not. Even with control over all three branches of the government, the Republicans are not going to get rid of all the illegals who are driving up housing prices and social welfare costs. I wish that I was wrong about this, but I'm not.

The United States population reached 200 million on November 20, 1967. If there was no net migration, then the U.S. population have stabilized to about 220 million. Instead, the population is 335 million. This is why housing is so expensive. This is why rent is so damn high. This is why the younger generations cannot afford to have children. This is why the only way to keep the population from falling is to import massive numbers of unskilled, uneducated, and often criminal immigrants. Both parties are responsible for this: democrats for importing voters and republicans for importing farm laborers. Both parties want cheap labor.

When you import massive numbers of low-iq, low-skill workers, your per capital GDP declines relative to where it would have been otherwise. Yes, technological advancements mask this because technology increases GDP faster than low-skill immigration decreases it, but most of those gains don't get seen by the middle class.

Since both parties, and their corporate overlords, are benefiting from the current system, immigration will continue and housing prices will also continue to rise. I suppose I shouldn't care since I own and have a 2.25% mortgage that is being eaten away by inflation, but anyone young enough that they having bought already is fucked.

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131   WookieMan   2025 May 23, 8:56am  

MolotovCocktail says

The article I posted wasn't about national RE markets or Bumfuq, IL. But you pretend it somehow was and then proceed to bitch about it in that imaginary context. You do this all rhe time.

So have Pat change the site to California.net? You can't spit doom and gloom. Start a new thread with its own content. This is a housing prices will not go down thread. Not started by me. You're posting about a specific location. Start a thread on it. Thanks to Pat we can now ignore it.

All I did is commentate on my REGION, not city. Start a new thread... It's 100% okay to say that's not happening around me. You seem offended like you're losing money or something?
132   HeadSet   2025 May 23, 6:21pm  

AD says

I loved living near Winchester, Virginia as it was cheap living, but it was good quality of life, especially with Shenandoah University having a lot ot offer year round from football, basketball , baseball and other sports to watch, as well as a music concerts and plays.

Beautiful area. I remember going to the Apple Blossom Festival when I was in high school.
133   MolotovCocktail   2025 May 27, 6:45am  

WookieMan says


You're posting about a specific locatio


So do you. Bumfuq, IL. All the time. Nobody cares.
136   WookieMan   2025 Jun 1, 4:30pm  

MolotovCocktail says





Where???? Realtors are always panicking. It's not a consistent paycheck. Clear clickbait headline. Only 1-5% of Realtors don't panic, those are the top dogs. 80% could work at McDonalds and make more. Not a joke when you factor in managing broker split. Usually around the 30/70 mark. A $500k home would net you $10,500 excluding taxes. You have to sell $5M-$7M to make a decent living. Not good. Decent.
138   Glock-n-Load   2025 Jun 2, 8:49am  

MolotovCocktail says







Isn’t that about 1,500,000 listings? Doesn’t sound like a ton of listings but, I don’t know what normal is for the entire country so…
139   WookieMan   2025 Jun 2, 9:19am  

Glock-n-Load says

Isn’t that about 1,500,000 listings? Doesn’t sound like a ton of listings but, I don’t know what normal is for the entire country so…

Doesn't matter. There is no value until it's sold. The $698B is likely a made up number because you can't know that until the house sells. List price means dick because 10-20% of listings are trial balloon listings. Eh lets see if we can sell it but they don't have to.

Doesn't mean default or anything. This has been going on for ages. Especially for people with multiple properties. People might be moving and want to get out of that market. Like cities where the highest market value generally is in that region so it looks like a big number.

I've said this all along, certain markets are going to eat shit. If this number is remotely accurate, it's going to happen in cities.

Also more bull shit posts (not you) with no link, but a screen shot from some social media page and a shitty meme. Par for the course. Information beat photos 100% of the time. Got nothing with these images.
140   AD   2025 Jun 2, 9:48am  

MolotovCocktail says








The general rule is a 10% drop for a 1% increase in the 30 year mortgage rate. Assume peak price was in early 2022 at a 3% rate, and assume household income has increased by 20% since then.

Hence, home prices generally should be 72% of the all time high price set in early 2022 based on the 30 yr mortgage rate of 7% , or a 28% discount

0.6 x 1.2 = 72%

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141   AD   2025 Jun 2, 10:05am  

WookieMan says


Doesn't matter. There is no value until it's sold.


I agree as I just look at trends of sales price not the listing price.

I think for my zip code (Panama City Beach, FL) there is at least 35% trial balloon listings that is why I don't pay much attention to months on the market or "months of supply".

I examine HOAs with at least 100 units such as Hathaway Townhomes to achieve a reliable trend analysis.

I'll extrapolate such as sales price per square foot for townhome units with at least a 1 car garage.

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144   B.A.C.A.H.   2025 Jun 8, 6:27am  

WookieMan says


So have Pat change the site to California.net? You can't spit doom and gloom.


Patrick lives here in the SF Bay Area. I followed his blog since the 2006 Housing Bubble when I was looking for an alternative point of view to the Bay Area Residential Real Estate Zeitgeist at the time. He shared his experiences with Bay Area ®eatlors who were throwing gasoline on the fire during that time.

Another Bay Arean, Wolf Richter, shared this on his Wolfstreet blog in recent days. https://wolfstreet.com/2025/06/06/inventory-of-homes-for-sale-in-biggest-california-markets-suddenly-piles-up-to-highest-in-years-demand-has-collapsed/

Sure enough, after I read Wolf's article I looked up my East San Jose zip code on foreclosure.com. I don't know how accurate or complete their site is, but I saw 37 listings that are either "bankruptcy", "foreclosure", or "pre-foreclosure". Then I saw on Zillow that my East SJ sh*tbox is down about 200k from the peak of 2022.

So like Wolf's been warning, it's beginning to happen.
145   WookieMan   2025 Jun 8, 6:42am  

B.A.C.A.H. says

So like Wolf's been warning, it's beginning to happen.

I understand your area might be getting it bad and as you've said you're kind of looking forward to that. The guy that changes his username weekly posted a map in the other recent housing thread that shows the midwest (outside of MN) not losing value. And MN is almost exclusively due to Minneapolis and people leaving the city. Probably still staying in state, but it drags down prices.

My perspective is substantially different than CA, TX or FL. Those are huge markets, but doing well where I'm at and neighboring states. Between IL, WI, MI, OH, IN and IA that's a decent population. Shitty winters and all. It's the reason I despise when people post overall national stats. Even state stats are misleading. Chicago is likely down, but the rest of the region is up.
146   MolotovCocktail   2025 Jun 8, 7:10am  

WookieMan says

60% of the country that doesn't live on the coasts.


Parts of the country that is 'the coasts' according to WookieMan:



147   MolotovCocktail   2025 Jun 8, 7:11am  

WookieMan says

I understand your area might be getting it bad and as you've said you're kind of looking forward to that. The guy that changes his username weekly posted a map in the other recent housing thread that shows the midwest (outside of MN) not losing value. And MN is almost


Once again:

MolotovCocktail says

WookieMan says


60% of the country that doesn't live on the coasts.


Parts of the country that is 'the coasts' according to WookieMan:




148   MolotovCocktail   2025 Jun 8, 7:12am  

WookieMan says


My perspective is substantially different than CA, TX or FL


So fucking what? According to you, Oklahoma is a coastal state:

MolotovCocktail says

WookieMan says


60% of the country that doesn't live on the coasts.


Parts of the country that is 'the coasts' according to WookieMan:




149   B.A.C.A.H.   2025 Jun 8, 8:30am  

WookieMan says

I understand your area might be getting it bad

Ha! It's not getting bad; - it's getting less bad.
150   WookieMan   2025 Jun 8, 12:25pm  

You're talking about Oklahoma or Nebraska? States with no population? IL has the 6th largest population in the country. MI is 10th. OH is 7th. NY is higher along with PA. https://www.britannica.com/topic/largest-U-S-state-by-population

These are states with no population that may have lost 5% and IF you had to sell maybe cost you $10k. Oh the horror. 15 of the states are coastal. They lost more because prices are higher. Most the US population is not losing money on houses. Nevada is Vegas and Reno. Phoenix is land locked and is a bit surprising. Missouri and Arkansas are shit holes. Nashville got overhyped.

There's an easy explanation for every state. People want to move away from liberal shit holes. Not necessarily the state, but the city. Where prices are higher. This isn't complicated. It doesn't mean prices are collapsing by any mean except for where you bough and are butt hurt about it. (Not you BACAH)
151   MolotovCocktail   2025 Jun 8, 12:37pm  

WookieMan says

You're talking about Oklahoma or Nebraska?


No. You were.
153   ForcedTQ   2025 Jul 17, 8:52am  

So what you’re saying is, in the somewhat near future it may be a good time to buy a house….
154   HeadSet   2025 Jul 17, 2:06pm  

ForcedTQ says

So what you’re saying is, in the somewhat near future it may be a good time to buy a house….

Blasphemy!! The time to buy is NOW!
156   RC2006   2025 Jul 27, 6:05pm  

MolotovCocktail says





Maybe they will after some hyperinflation.
160   ForcedTQ   2025 Jul 30, 10:06pm  

It is going to take nothing short of prospective buyers actually saving up large 40-50% down payments to be able to purchase now.
161   MolotovCocktail   2025 Jul 30, 11:43pm  

ForcedTQ says


It is going to take nothing short of prospective buyers actually saving up large 40-50% down payments to be able to purchase now.


Which means prices will have to fall. A LOT.

Which means this thread's author's main premise is bullshit.

Which means...


162   MolotovCocktail   2025 Aug 3, 6:55pm  

MolotovCocktail says

ForcedTQ says



It is going to take nothing short of prospective buyers actually saving up large 40-50% down payments to be able to purchase now.


Which means prices will have to fall. A LOT.

Which means this thread's author's main premise is bullshit.

Which means...






163   MolotovCocktail   2025 Aug 3, 6:57pm  

anon5525 says

. because immigration will not go down


Retardation this ^^^^

Absolute proof:

MolotovCocktail says

Fuck yeah!





So why do we let moronbots post on PatNet?
165   AD   2025 Aug 4, 12:38am  

MolotovCocktail says


anon5525 says


. because immigration will not go down


Retardation this ^^^^

Absolute proof:

MolotovCocktail says


Fuck yeah!





So why do we let moronbots post on PatNet?



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Given most of the undocumented or illegal immigrants likely live in crowded housing conditions and in substandard housing, I'm not sure it would have that much an effect on the housing market.

If anything there may be an improvement in standard of living or quality of life in regards to living arrangements.

A massive layoff occurrence of clerical and white collar professionals would have the greater effect on middle to upper class housing, including average-to-above-average townhomes.
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166   FuckTheMainstreamMedia   2025 Aug 4, 1:02am  

^^^^ disagree depending on the actual number of deportation(govt executed or self executed). There’s neighborhoods of Los Angeles that should be crazy thriving and nice but are dominated with illegals. I would not be surprised to see so many leave that the now kids of kids of the original owners are willing to bail for Pennie’s on the dollar. Looks like the state may buy these and renovated them for “supportive” housing purposes. Not sure but certain neighborhoods surrounding downtown Los Angeles should experience massive upheaval in the next few years.

Here’s how bad it is. No one in LA County wants to serve jury duty downtown. But LA HAS to pull from a pool of jurors that live 20-30 miles away, even though those suburbs have their own courthouses. Part of it is number of cases(yet no one but locals get called to Van Nuys, LAX, Compton, Inglewood, or Long Beach courthouses yet all are large and quite busy), but mostly it’s because there are so few citizens living in the neighborhoods surrounding downtown.
167   AD   2025 Aug 4, 1:15am  

FuckTheMainstreamMedia says

Not sure but certain neighborhoods surrounding downtown Los Angeles should experience massive upheaval in the next few years.

Here’s how bad it is. No one in LA County wants to serve jury duty downtown. But LA HAS to pull from a pool of jurors that live 20-30 miles away, even though those suburbs have their own courthouses. Part of it is number of cases(yet no one but locals get called to Van Nuys, LAX, Compton, Inglewood, or Long Beach courthouses yet all are large and quite busy), but mostly it’s because there are so few citizens living in the neighborhoods surrounding downtown.


Depends also if they are living in homes that are near the end of their ~70 year old service life, and yes it depends on the owners as it could be young millennial heirs who don't mind selling for $250,000 a crap shack in LA whereas they could have fetched it for $500,000 in early 2022.

I wonder how many Congressional seats in California are attributed to the Census counting illegal or undocumented immigrants.

You at least agree that California is a Democrat shithole state.

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169   MolotovCocktail   2025 Aug 5, 4:40pm  

This thread's post should be reported to @IfindRetards on X

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