patrick.net

One distortion with generation ownership is how much the homes have appreciated and for how long for each generation.

You can sell the house today you brought in 1992 for $120k, paid off in 2022, and still make a profit at $200k in 2027 when the housing market collapse.

Conversely, you are completely fucked if you try to sell the house you brought at 31 in 2021 for $500k that drops to $200k.

And yes, that could be the case if Milly Millennial and Bob Boomer are both trying to unload the same Al Bundy on the same block the built at the same time in the same development by the same builder and the same model from 1978, but purchased at different times

All becomes moot in the case of hyperinflation.

Misc says

All becomes moot in the case of hyperinflation.

Supply and demand

If you do not have enough population due to "low population growth" and you have too much housing inventory or stock, then something has got to give.

Maybe be creative like convert the "excess inventory" homes to vacation rentals if in the right place like a Colorado mountain town or Florida beach town.

That is why I wonder how residential housing construction starts will fare over next 25 years (and compare to the period of 2000 to 2025).

What are the economists saying who advise residential developers, DR Horton, Toll Brothers, and the 84 Lumber's ?

What are cities planning as far as infrastructure like public schools and water and sewer ?

Like I said, it seems like residential construction has come to a complete halt in Panama City Beach at least since last year.

.

Patrick says

Glock-n-Load says

They’re supported by the incomes.

DC has a median income of $106,287 and a median house price of $764,716.

That's far beyond reasonable.

1) What's the median net worth in DC?
2) How much of the economy and corporate bottom lines are dependent on house values?
I ask because I believe it is a shit ton. This means almost everyone is incentivized to keep
values high. I think they will stay high. Affordability will be low for a loooong time.

Patrick says

Just kind of interesting:

Hmmm. This map proves the point. The outliers I all know well. Gallatin County, MT. Look up Big Sky. Bozeman and Belgrade are moderately priced for 3-5X income, high but not awful. Big Sky is probably 20X the average income. Denver area I shouldn't have to explain. Reno, NV is self explanatory as well with Tahoe and Tesla.

Then you got Jackson, WY. One of the most expensive places in the country. It really is a fucking amazing place. Nashville is high because of Nissan and I forget the massive tire manufacturing company. Boise is hipsterville. Everywhere else is coastal. All within driving distance for a weekend at the beach. Hell even Nashville is only 6-7 hours to the panhandle.

When people flee Democratic policies in the cities those high prices drop. People move to a cheaper places so the national average comes down. Thing is no one is coming back to cities once they learn rural life, have more money to spend. We're going to be seeing more Detroits in the next decade. Fact is the center of the country is well within their means of purchasing a home. I don't want you to live there, but you could and be much happier if you don't bring your shit with you.

AD says

What are cities planning as far as infrastructure like public schools and water and sewer ?

W & S lines are already starting to be problems as the ones built for Levitt towns (first suburbs) are at the end of their original service life but there isn't enough of a tax base to pay to replace them. And of course, towns didn't put any/enough aside for this and Boomers vote down the bonds needed to raise.

And there are later suburbs built that will have the same problem.

https://youtu.be/dIcPSH7ExMM?si=PFbmWgzgtm6u4G6L

AD says

I am not sure all those 14 million baby boomers dying have homes to pass on to their heirs

And even those that do pass on a house will pass it to just one of their several children. However, if the heirs decode to sell and split the proceeds, they will likely price to sell quickly.

AD says

What are the economists saying who advise residential developers, DR Horton, Toll Brothers, and the 84 Lumber's ?

Good point. I suspect they are giving same kind of expert guidance that Marketing Directors gave to Bud Light over having a Transgender Campaign.

Or that Meteorologists gave Germany about average wind speeds.

Those economists are using analysis of the market based on the past 60 years, ignoring unstoppable Demographic trends as well as delayed ownership and unprecedented income:price ratios of suburban homes that remain stubborn or "Sticky Upwards" despite interest rates rising while buyer demand collapses to within a hair's breadth of the post Financial Crisis

Frankly, just normalcy bias getting swept away by a Demographic Tsunami.

And that's not including the stop in illegal migration, deportation of illegals, and likely coming clamp down on legal visa holders and immigration that will reduce housing demand by millions of units in the next decade.

One stat I heard today: There are as many 70+ homebuyers in the market as under 35 buyers.

Not that there are many buyers at all right now compared to historical norms.

PanicanDemoralizer says

One stat I heard today: There are as many 70+ homebuyers in the market as under 35 buyers.

So Boomers are flipping houses to other Boomers.

MolotovCocktail says

So Boomers are flipping houses to other Boomers.

But they have to find a Boomer who can afford 10% down on a $450k house first.

It's really wild out there in seller delulu land. Aside from a few places outside Northern Urban Areas, only 10% of households can Afford a $450k house with 10% down AND don't already own a house. This is about 30 of the 50 states.

Despite substantial declines from the peak, buyers are staying home in droves, for the very good reason that non-homeowner buyers still can't afford to buy, and are confident prices will resume declining. The declining rental rates reinforce that belief. From Tennessee to Texas to Florida, rents continue to decline quarter after quarter with plenty of vacancy.

It may be that rental declines are what breaks the Sticky Upward Stubborn Price Holdouts

PanicanDemoralizer says

But they have to find a Boomer who can afford 10% down on a $450k house first

They buy in cash, mostly. Not all Boomers are rich but enough are to do this shit. Won't be the case when they have to burn it all on $6k/month nursing homes or when they die off.

That's why all this bullshit of "this is not a crash!" pronounced constantly by the Housing Experts of PatNet is utter bullshit.

Crashes don't have to to happen 'fast'.

When will housing prices drop? In some U.S. cities, the decreases have already started.

Data from Realtor.com shows that existing home sales are slowing down. The typical home for sale spent 58 days on the market in July 2025 — five more days than in June and a full week longer than one year ago.

If you’re a hopeful home buyer, you might be wondering: If the housing market is cooling, does that mean home prices are dropping?

The answer depends on various factors, particularly on where you’re shopping for a home. Here’s what you need to know about housing prices as we head into the fall season.

Are house prices going down?

By many markers, home prices are, indeed, going down. The Federal Housing Finance Agency’s House Price Index shows a 0.2% decline in home prices between April and May (the latest data available), and Realtor.com’s July report shows price declines in 33 of the nation’s biggest 50 metros. Another eight cities saw home price growth, but at a slower clip than in the month previous.

According to the U.S. Census Bureau, the median home price in Q2 2025 was $410,800 — down from $423,100 at the beginning of the year. Housing inventory is also improving, which bodes well for home prices in the coming months. (More houses on the market means less competition, which typically means sellers need to lower prices to win buyers.)

Realtor.com’s data shows that the total active inventory of homes for sale jumped nearly 25% between July 2024 and July 2025, and over 20% of listings saw a price cut last month.

Still, inventory is lower than before the pandemic, and it’s unlikely we’ll see a huge jump in listings until mortgage rates fall. Many current homeowners are reluctant to give up the 3% mortgage rates they secured early on in the pandemic — especially with 30-year mortgage interest rates hovering in the upper-6% range for all of this year.

Mortgage rates could decrease soon, though. The Federal Reserve is poised to cut rates at least once this year, and Fannie Mae predicts a 6.4% average interest rate by the end of 2026. While it’s not a huge dip from today’s levels, it could inspire more homeowners to list their homes and buy into other properties.

Most forecasts call for home price growth to slow steadily over the next year. Fannie Mae’s Home Price Index, which measures year-over-year price growth, projects a fall from 3.8% this quarter to just 1.1% by the end of 2026. The Mortgage Bankers Association predicts the FHFA index to dip from the 2.8% annual increase seen in the last report to a mere 0.3% by the end of next year. This could mean a boost in affordability for buyers across the nation.

Dig deeper: Which is more important, a low interest rate or house price?

Where home prices have fallen

But if you want or need to buy a home before those declines come to fruition, choosing your market carefully can be a great way to snag a good deal.

For example, in Austin, Texas, housing prices have fallen almost 5% in the last year, and the typical home is sitting on the market for 65.5 days. Nearly a third of listings are seeing price cuts.

Here’s a look at some other markets where home prices have fallen:

Since July 2022, when the national market peaked, home prices in 19 of the 50 largest cities have decreased. Most notably, Miami has seen a nearly-18% dip in that three-year period. Austin prices dropped 14.8%, while nearby San Antonio prices fell 10.6%. San Francisco, Dallas, Orlando, Denver, and Raleigh all saw significant drops too.

Prices aren’t dropping everywhere, though — the fact that housing costs are down in 19 of the 50 largest metro areas means that prices are stagnant or increasing in 31 of the largest cities. For example, Detroit’s prices have held steady since July 2022, and housing prices have increased by over 20% in Milwaukee, Wis., Providence, R.I., and Cleveland.

Dig deeper: Why are home prices so high?

Strategies for eager buyers

Waiting on more inventory or lower mortgage rates isn’t the only way tos to buy a home affordably.

Here are a few strategies to consider if you see homeownership in your not-so-distant future.

Buy with an eye on refinancing. You could get into the market today with a home in your price range and look to refinance down the line. While you might get less house for your budget, you can start building equity. When rates come down, you can refinance your mortgage to a lower rate or even a different type of mortgage loan altogether.
Start small. While it might not be your dream home, you could find housing happiness in today’s market by purchasing a condo or buying a lot and putting a tiny house on it. Both home types can cost considerably less than a single-family home and help you build equity that translates to cash when you’re ready to upsize.
Go modular. No, these aren’t mobile homes. Modular homes are those that look just like a single-family home when constructed. The only difference is that they’re built in modules off-site and assembled when they get to your lot. They can also cost 10% to 20% less than a traditionally built home.

When will housing prices drop? FAQs

Will 2026 be a better time to buy a house?

It may be good to buy a house in 2026 because, according to industry forecasts from Fannie Mae and the Mortgage Bankers Association, interest rates will probably gradually decrease by then. Home price growth is expected to slow too.

Will U.S. housing prices ever drop?

Typically, house prices will fall when supply exceeds demand, and sellers need to lower prices to entice buyers. As of July 2025, home supply was increasing, but not to the point where the number of homes for sale had caught up to pre-pandemic numbers.

Is it smart to buy a house right now?

If your finances are in order and it’s the right stage of your life, it could be a smart time to buy a house. Interest rates have stubbornly remained elevated, but they aren’t at sky-high levels. Home price growth has also slowed down, with many markets even seeing price declines in recent months.

https://finance.yahoo.com/personal-finance/mortgages/article/when-will-housing-prices-drop-in-some-us-cities-the-decreases-have-already-started-161956976.html

So #1, cities are getting hit and specifically the inland hipster ones. #2 most all are coastal besides the hipsters which I've been saying for months. Austin is hipster and within coastal range in a days drive, Miami, Los Angeles, Sacramento, Nashville (borderline weekend coastal trip). Minneapolis is a Somali shit hole, so that's no surprise, white flight.

Also under 5% is totally catastrophic....🙄 I lose that much in a day on stocks or 401k. Holy shit my life is ruined.... lol said no one. All these places have equity so a loss is not that big of a deal based on LIST price. They're likely still up.

Also the problem with data is Realtor.com doesn't have all the data. It's not owned by the association of Realtors just because they use the name. It's licensed to another company. You can check a box in your MLS system to not share the data. Realtor.com and sites like Zillow wouldn't get the data. IDX. We it did all the time on trial ballon listings so it wouldn't show as listed before. And buyer brokers are too lazy to look up the history.

As with any industry there's way more shit going on the general public doesn't know about. 15 years of my adult career was in that cesspool. The general public doesn't know the game.

Al_Sharpton_for_President says

Mortgage rates could decrease soon, though. The Federal Reserve is poised to cut rates at least once this year, and Fannie Mae predicts a 6.4% average interest rate by the end of 2026. While it’s not a huge dip from today’s levels, it could inspire more homeowners to list their homes and buy into other properties.

Hopium like the kind Housing Experts of PatNet preach.

WookieMan says

So #1, cities are getting hit and specifically the inland hipster ones. #2 most all are coastal besides the hipsters which I've been saying for months. Austin is hipster and within coastal range in a days drive, Miami, Los Angeles, Sacramento, Nashville (borderline weekend coastal trip). Minneapolis is a Somali shit hole, so that's no surprise, white flight.

So, you are covering your coastal cities bullshit by adding a 'hipster' condition?

Cm'on, man! You are a bonafied Housing Expert of PatNet! Don't embarrass yourself with such pathetic gaslighting. Its so...so..Realtor®ish!

MolotovCocktail says

Cm'on, man! You are a bonafied Housing Expert of PatNet! Don't embarrass yourself with such pathetic gaslighting. Its so...so..Realtor™ish!

I know it more than you do. Not sure your point. Unless you're 60 with 40 years of experience stop talking real estate.

WookieMan says

MolotovCocktail says

Cm'on, man! You are a bonafied Housing Expert of PatNet! Don't embarrass yourself with such pathetic gaslighting. Its so...so..Realtor™ish!

I know it more than you do. Not sure your point. Unless you're 60 with 40 years of experience stop talking real estate.

Hipster experience? Cut the crap. You don't know shit. You make it all up.

MolotovCocktail says

Hipster experience? Cut the crap. You don't know shit. You make it all up.

Name any place you've been. Just the US and small, mid and major cities. Any of them. I don't make anything up, you don't know anything is the problem.

WookieMan says

MolotovCocktail says

Hipster experience? Cut the crap. You don't know shit. You make it all up.

Name any place you've been. Just the US and small, mid and major cities. Any of them. I don't make anything up, you don't know anything is the problem.

Why? What does that have to do with you creating a totally bogus categorization to cover up your wrong BS?

MolotovCocktail says

WookieMan says
MolotovCocktail says

Hipster experience? Cut the crap. You don't know shit. You make it all up.

Name any place you've been. Just the US and small, mid and major cities. Any of them. I don't make anything up, you don't know anything is the problem.

Why? What does that have to do with you creating a totally bogus categorization to cover up your wrong BS?

Because you don't do anything and claim to know real estate. You don't. This isn't 2007. I made a living in it through that time, did you? Have you even traveled to most cities? Name them. You keep dodging my questions. That's an extremely insecure trait.

Have you been to Austin? Nashville? NYC? Minneapolis? Louisville? Miami? Chicago? Milwaukee? Cleveland? St. Louis? Denver? Seattle? Portland? Boise? SLC? Phoenix? Houston? NOLA? Tampa? Jacksonville? Boston? Spokane? Las Vegas? Dallas? Indy? Detroit? Philly? Buffalo? My list can go on and on and that's just the cities in the lower 48 and I've been to more than I can remember.

Start throwing in countries. Please, I know you're in your enclave and do nothing besides bitch at other people. Enjoy that life. Has to suck.

Show me data where illegals or anchor babies are buying houses? Second homes and the rental markets have turned into a huge investment sectors when you have huge corporations building rental sub divisions built only to rent we know the market has been gamed. Keep the price out of reach and force them to rent.

When people who can only rent leave the market and rental demand goes down, how long can the landlords hold the unproductive properties?

ForcedTQ says

When people who can only rent leave the market and rental demand goes down, how long can the landlords hold the unproductive properties?

What happened after Covid, was that millions of Mom and Pop landlords sold out because during Covid the government imposed eviction moratoriums. Mom and Pop relied on the rental income. The large corporations they sold out to run a certain percentage of vacancies to keep the rental prices high. They can maximize revenue by having vacancies. You should see the vacancy rates for office buildings, and those rents haven't dropped. So yeah, they can hold on for an extended period of time.

WookieMan says

Because you don't do anything and claim to know real estate. You don't. This isn't 2007. I made a living in it through that time, did you? Have you even traveled to most cities? Name them. You keep dodging my questions. That's an extremely insecure trait.

I don't do anything now? If I don't do anything, then your bogus accusations of what you imagine I do or not don't hold any water, either.

Dodging shit you make up entirely in your own mind? I think you imagine that too.

Your claims about what you know are now proven to be shit, dude. Doesn't have anything to do with me.

ForcedTQ says

When people who can only rent leave the market and rental demand goes down, how long can the landlords hold the unproductive properties?

Apparently, if they 'hipsters' in coastal cities, they can't. If they live in Dunfuq, IL, they can.

beershrine says

Show me data where illegals or anchor babies are buying houses?

Illegals aren't buying houses, but they are renting them. 12 or whatever living in one house, and parking on the street.

Booger says

beershrine says

Show me data where illegals or anchor babies are buying houses?

Illegals aren't buying houses, but they are renting them. 12 or whatever living in one house, and parking on the street.

Yeah they do: https://www.marketplace.org/story/2017/09/11/american-dream-how-undocumented-immigrants-buy-homes-us

And in California, the State helps them do it.

Booger says

beershrine says

Show me data where illegals or anchor babies are buying houses?

Illegals aren't buying houses, but they are renting them. 12 or whatever living in one house, and parking on the street.

They'll be deemed too big to fail.

MolotovCocktail says

Yeah they do: https://www.marketplace.org/story/2017/09/11/american-dream-how-undocumented-immigrants-buy-homes-us

And in California, the State helps them do it.

This house is 1/3rd of the price in most of the country. https://www.realtor.com/realestateandhomes-detail/7218-Sonoma-Ave_Rancho-Cucamonga_CA_91701_M15531-09654

I didn't even pick a pinkies up CA community. Prices drop 10% in Rancho and stay the same or even go up in dumb fuck IL or whatever you call it, the national median still goes down. The average goes down. For the life of me I still don't understand how someone cannot comprehend basic math. My prices can rise while others drop. Yet the median will still drop. BECAUSE PEOPLE ARE MOVING OUT OF COASTAL AREAS AND CITIES FOR FUCKS SAKE.

It means the housing was priced too high in your area or you can't afford it. I know the answer to that though...

WookieMan says

I didn't even pick a pinkies up CA community. Prices drop 10% in Rancho and stay the same or even go up in dumb fuck IL or whatever you call it, the national median still goes down. The average goes down. For the life of me I still don't understand how someone cannot comprehend basic math. My prices can rise while others drop. Yet the median will still drop. BECAUSE PEOPLE ARE MOVING OUT OF COASTAL AREAS AND CITIES FOR FUCKS SAKE.

When did I ever speak of the national median?

(Not in your fucking imagination, either)

Well?

MolotovCocktail says

So Boomers are flipping houses to other Boomers.

Downsizing, which means the old house comes on the market.

GNL says

1) What's the median net worth in DC?

@GNL

ChatGPT say:

For Washington, D.C.he median household net worth (including home equity) is reported to be $68,865

Patrick says

For Washington, D.C.he median household net worth (including home equity) is reported to be $68,865

43% of the population of DC is Black. -- That's a lot of poor

The big money like Blackrock's various LLCs have been quietly selling off their SFH investments for several quarters now, 3-5% each quarter. Overall big money homebuying is exaggerated anyway, it was always low single digit percentage points.

The not-so-big players as well as quietly selling off holdings as property tax and insurance and other holding costs have skyrocketed across the country.

AirBNB hasn't been doing so great either.

MolotovCocktail says

When did I ever speak of the national median?

(Not in your fucking imagination, either)

Well?

You've said multiple times that housing is going down. You don't specify the area. It's going up in many places still. It's not doom and gloom all over the country. You still don't get this point. That's why I think you rent and can't afford to buy and are upset about it.

Take the crocodile tears elsewhere dude. You've given no experience in real estate. You can't say the cities you've visited and physically saw the housing stock. At this point I don't understand why you keep on commenting on real estate. Hell make it up. You can't do that even. You just attack others knowledge and or point of view when they present facts which you never have.

I know AD's area to an extent and the panhandle, further West to the AL state line. I don't need to verify anything. He gives an honest description of the market down there. With links and numbers. I also have in person seen it with my own eyes.... You haven't.

I don't understand people that want a crash. Guess what? Your income crashes and you still can't afford to buy. So throw a hissy fit.

Build update photos coming later today. I back up my talk and am not a shit talker.

In my area prices are stubbornly high, but they seem to have peaked. Houses are on the market longer. We had yet another wave of city people move to the suburbs now that working from home or hybrid is a thing. I've also seen more properties be converted to rentals,.rather than owner occupied, which deplets inventory.

Being near a major metro, prices will deflate slowly and not simply drop off a cliff. The one thing that's different this time, relative to 2004 to 2008 is the lack of forclouses/ distressed properties. People may be stretched thin, but unless the job market or wages contract most can stay afloat. Anyone who bought pre 2020 is locked in at a good rate and absent a major change in financial situation should be able to ride it out and not have to sell.

As for the boomer generation, their houses are either going to 1) the kids or grandkids 2) the healthcare system / nursing home or 3) the bank. Hard to believe but some boomers still don't own their homes outright.

In the area I grew up the neighborhood is mostly immigrants; 60 years ago it was predominantly Jewish; 30 years ago it was white middle class; now it's a wide range of ethnicites. Most cashed out one or two cycles ago, hence the demographic turnover.

I get back there periodically and people are maintaining their homes, area is still safe and hosing values have generally held with the wider local market. And I grew up in a suburb of a major East Coast City.

Booger says

beershrine says

Show me data where illegals or anchor babies are buying houses?

Illegals aren't buying houses, but they are renting them. 12 or whatever living in one house, and parking on the street.

The most productive of them are still here, but now only living 6 to 8 in a house. More breathing room for everyone and less stress on shared neighborhood resources.

GreaterNYCDude says

Being near a major metro, prices will deflate slowly and not simply drop off a cliff. The one thing that's different this time, relative to 2004 to 2008 is the lack of forclouses/ distressed properties. People may be stretched thin, but unless the job market or wages contract most can stay afloat. Anyone who bought pre 2020 is locked in at a good rate and absent a major change in financial situation should be able to ride it out and not have to sell.

This is spot on. Cities and costal areas will drop, but it's not a diddy freak out moment. Maybe 5% correction and 10% worst case. Even then they likely have equity as well as low rates. We're going to go sideways for potentially a long time 5 or even 10 years. There's nothing in the math that says otherwise.

I get people want cheaper houses, but those days are done. The housing crash was a once in a lifetime event and people keep thinking it's going to happen again and buy a cheap house when they don't all a sudden have a job. The loans at that time were absolute trash and now not legal or impossible to obtain without huge cash backing it.

Move to a place that is affordable is really all there is to it. You can make the same money anywhere. If you can't, you're not thinking. And in certain places you'll have to deal with winter. The horror. Guess what, those that don't want to deal with cold weather increase wages with more demand for talent because others avoid the location. Basic supply and demand of employees. You could actually make more in Montgomery, AL if you have skills that are in need versus say NY, IL, CA where there are people all over the place with the same skills. Drags incomes down. H1-B's as well. An Indian is not moving to Alabama. They're going to CA where their low wage is like hitting the jackpot.

Agreed no sign of a crash, but price reductions for many from the insane highs of anywhere between 5%-40%, depending on how overpriced the shack was listed to begin with. Difference to 2008 is that they will get bought once reasonably priced without the government needed to step in. On average I expext low single digits of appreciation for the next year or two, below general inflation.