patrick.net

WookieMan says

I didn't even pick a pinkies up CA community. Prices drop 10% in Rancho and stay the same or even go up in dumb fuck IL or whatever you call it, the national median still goes down. The average goes down. For the life of me I still don't understand how someone cannot comprehend basic math. My prices can rise while others drop. Yet the median will still drop. BECAUSE PEOPLE ARE MOVING OUT OF COASTAL AREAS AND CITIES FOR FUCKS SAKE.

When did I ever speak of the national median?

(Not in your fucking imagination, either)

Well?

MolotovCocktail says

So Boomers are flipping houses to other Boomers.

Downsizing, which means the old house comes on the market.

GNL says

1) What's the median net worth in DC?

@GNL

ChatGPT say:

For Washington, D.C.he median household net worth (including home equity) is reported to be $68,865

Patrick says

For Washington, D.C.he median household net worth (including home equity) is reported to be $68,865

43% of the population of DC is Black. -- That's a lot of poor

The big money like Blackrock's various LLCs have been quietly selling off their SFH investments for several quarters now, 3-5% each quarter. Overall big money homebuying is exaggerated anyway, it was always low single digit percentage points.

The not-so-big players as well as quietly selling off holdings as property tax and insurance and other holding costs have skyrocketed across the country.

AirBNB hasn't been doing so great either.

MolotovCocktail says

When did I ever speak of the national median?

(Not in your fucking imagination, either)

Well?

You've said multiple times that housing is going down. You don't specify the area. It's going up in many places still. It's not doom and gloom all over the country. You still don't get this point. That's why I think you rent and can't afford to buy and are upset about it.

Take the crocodile tears elsewhere dude. You've given no experience in real estate. You can't say the cities you've visited and physically saw the housing stock. At this point I don't understand why you keep on commenting on real estate. Hell make it up. You can't do that even. You just attack others knowledge and or point of view when they present facts which you never have.

I know AD's area to an extent and the panhandle, further West to the AL state line. I don't need to verify anything. He gives an honest description of the market down there. With links and numbers. I also have in person seen it with my own eyes.... You haven't.

I don't understand people that want a crash. Guess what? Your income crashes and you still can't afford to buy. So throw a hissy fit.

Build update photos coming later today. I back up my talk and am not a shit talker.

In my area prices are stubbornly high, but they seem to have peaked. Houses are on the market longer. We had yet another wave of city people move to the suburbs now that working from home or hybrid is a thing. I've also seen more properties be converted to rentals,.rather than owner occupied, which deplets inventory.

Being near a major metro, prices will deflate slowly and not simply drop off a cliff. The one thing that's different this time, relative to 2004 to 2008 is the lack of forclouses/ distressed properties. People may be stretched thin, but unless the job market or wages contract most can stay afloat. Anyone who bought pre 2020 is locked in at a good rate and absent a major change in financial situation should be able to ride it out and not have to sell.

As for the boomer generation, their houses are either going to 1) the kids or grandkids 2) the healthcare system / nursing home or 3) the bank. Hard to believe but some boomers still don't own their homes outright.

In the area I grew up the neighborhood is mostly immigrants; 60 years ago it was predominantly Jewish; 30 years ago it was white middle class; now it's a wide range of ethnicites. Most cashed out one or two cycles ago, hence the demographic turnover.

I get back there periodically and people are maintaining their homes, area is still safe and hosing values have generally held with the wider local market. And I grew up in a suburb of a major East Coast City.

Booger says

beershrine says

Show me data where illegals or anchor babies are buying houses?

Illegals aren't buying houses, but they are renting them. 12 or whatever living in one house, and parking on the street.

The most productive of them are still here, but now only living 6 to 8 in a house. More breathing room for everyone and less stress on shared neighborhood resources.

GreaterNYCDude says

Being near a major metro, prices will deflate slowly and not simply drop off a cliff. The one thing that's different this time, relative to 2004 to 2008 is the lack of forclouses/ distressed properties. People may be stretched thin, but unless the job market or wages contract most can stay afloat. Anyone who bought pre 2020 is locked in at a good rate and absent a major change in financial situation should be able to ride it out and not have to sell.

This is spot on. Cities and costal areas will drop, but it's not a diddy freak out moment. Maybe 5% correction and 10% worst case. Even then they likely have equity as well as low rates. We're going to go sideways for potentially a long time 5 or even 10 years. There's nothing in the math that says otherwise.

I get people want cheaper houses, but those days are done. The housing crash was a once in a lifetime event and people keep thinking it's going to happen again and buy a cheap house when they don't all a sudden have a job. The loans at that time were absolute trash and now not legal or impossible to obtain without huge cash backing it.

Move to a place that is affordable is really all there is to it. You can make the same money anywhere. If you can't, you're not thinking. And in certain places you'll have to deal with winter. The horror. Guess what, those that don't want to deal with cold weather increase wages with more demand for talent because others avoid the location. Basic supply and demand of employees. You could actually make more in Montgomery, AL if you have skills that are in need versus say NY, IL, CA where there are people all over the place with the same skills. Drags incomes down. H1-B's as well. An Indian is not moving to Alabama. They're going to CA where their low wage is like hitting the jackpot.

Agreed no sign of a crash, but price reductions for many from the insane highs of anywhere between 5%-40%, depending on how overpriced the shack was listed to begin with. Difference to 2008 is that they will get bought once reasonably priced without the government needed to step in. On average I expext low single digits of appreciation for the next year or two, below general inflation.

FuckTheMainstreamMedia says

So many morons, so little time.
https://www.nilc.org/articles/mass-deportations-the-economy-and-you/
https://www.americanimmigrationcouncil.org/report/mass-deportation/
https://nevadacurrent.com/2024/11/15/nevada-unprepared-for-trumps-mass-deportations/
https://cmsny.org/publications/mass-deportations-impoverish-us-families-create-immense-costs/
[...]

Websites with TDS. Have to make up "bad news" for everything Trump does (or even for what Trump proposes when trolling). A few illegal aliens are sent home and it's the end of the US economy. Tariffs are the end of the US economy. Department of Education is cancelled and now schools are turning out retards. (Ha! It can't get worse than it already was.) This has been going on for a decade starting with the Russian Collusion Delusion.

When are any of these dire predictions going to happen? Even with 1/2 the lifetime government "workers" purposely trying to make his policies fail, things seem headed for catastrophe more slowly than they were with Biden as puppet.

Here's a few things that can cheer you up:
• Only a small number of illegal aliens are needed to pick the crops. They are still here. That pint of strawberries has 20¢ of illegal alien labor cost, so maybe the price will rise from $5 to $5.20 if the labor cost doubles.
• Bidenflation™ already caused huge inflation — and that was when he was flooding the nation supposedly driving labor prices down. So we're supposed to believe prices go up when flooding the nation and prices go up more when a few of those people go home?
• Crop picking can be automated more. In fact, many things are experiencing increased automation including, even, Waymo automating driving services.
• Farmers can switch to crops requiring less human labor if there's somehow a problem. You'll get more peaches and few strawberries.
• Maybe now US citizens can get jobs in construction and food service and the taxpayers won't have to subsidize them, since they'll be earning a living. I'd rather pay more for that than having to subsidize all the jobless citizens.

Repeal at least 95% of all agricultural regulations that has been imposed going back to at least H.W. Bush. Open up farmlands Obama locked away as protected federal land. Sell it back to small famers, who would then be allowed to grow what ever in the fuck they want, and have as many retention ponds for livestock as they deem necessary.
This whole notion that only illegal aliens picks crops is pure grade A commie propaganda Bullshit!
Our agriculture has been ripped away from the family farmer, and placed in the hands of a few monopolies, even the seeds are gamed. Get rid of the GMO shit as well. And allow small farmers to sue Cargill and Monsanto in bankruptcy if the crops from their seeds mutate and destroy heirloom crops.
White people have been farming since this country started, if White people didn't, couldn't or wouldn't Farm there wouldn't be any Country radio stations in America.
It kills me when isolated city folks living in a snow globe on top of a Starbucks opine about the only people suited to pick crops.

The problem is the monopoly is so rigged and one sided, the greedy fucks wont pay a living wage to anyone, only illegal aliens living 10 adults in a 1br apartment can take that job.

Open back up our agriculture and lets see if people will still buy those tasteless under ripe tomatoes and other Frankenshit produce in the grocery stores.
you have to go to Boutique grocer to get any decent produce, and that's a travesty. It's not because it cost more to grow produce(I know some idiots likes to call it organic) but it's just the same fucking vegetables humans has been eating for tens of thousands of years. Wholefoods didn't put some shit on it, to make it organic. It doesn't cost more to grow. The con job was created so there could be a market for Frankenshit that is available otherwise.

End the industrial agriculture or at least stop protecting them by preventing small farmers from producing better superior alternatives.
Definitely stop the "Organic" label, it's just commie speak to rig the big players.

It won’t ever be that way again. Greed is the driver of society.

There will be communism.

I don't know about in your areas, but for the past month every Friday on just about every street, a whole apartment worth of furniture is out on the curb.
Seems without illegal aliens, being subsidized with supplemental income and social services. The rent seekers can't keep tenants at the prices their mortgages and investment demands.

Even cars for the first time in at least 15 years I am seeing cars and trucks on Craigslist selling for 3 grand and under. 2 or 3 years ago I picked up a 2001 Ford van, that looks like hell and drives and ride just as bad. I paid 3K for it, and it was 2K cheaper than the next cheapest van, that looked almost just as bad.
I'm seeing cars trucks and vans for very reasonable prices. I saw a 2005 Tacoma for 5K on CL, something like that has been selling for 12K for years.
All of the crop pickers are getting deported so they are having to sell their "Plumbing", "Carpenter", "Roofing", and "Construction" trucks and vans. CHEAP!

Since when do farmers have Milwaukee Packouts full of tools?

WookieMan says

You've said multiple times that housing is going down. You don't specify the area. It's going up in many places still. It's not doom and gloom all over the country. You still don't get this point. That's why I think you rent and can't afford to buy and are upset about it.

So? You just imagine shit up and declare it as fact, then.

Again.

WookieMan says

I don't understand people that want a crash.

Because you engage in magical thinking

1WookieMan says

You've given no experience in real estate. You can't say the cities you've visited and physically saw the housing stock. At this point I don't understand why you keep on commenting on real estate.

To call out the bullshit posted by ppl like you, for one thing.

That is the real reason you are pissed at me.

I find all the 'plot holes' in your crap. Rather easy to do. The rest you do for me by yourself. Esp the magical thinking.

socal2 does the same thing.

End property taxes on primary residence single family homes, and raise the state taxes on income SFH.
Also put a federal property tax on rental units. Build 10 new cities in America.
This too will pass. We've seen lots of nonsense that was supposed to be the new normal come and go over the past decade or so.
RE is still rigged to suit just a few greedy bastards, they will have their day. Louder than Liberal tears.

Misc says

43% of the population of DC is Black. -- That's a lot of poor

Only about 20% of the Blacks in DC are poor.

MolotovCocktail says

That is the real reason you are pissed at me.

Lol. This is your best??? I just respond here, you don't take up 1/1,000th of my head space.

MolotovCocktail says

I find all the 'plot holes' in your crap. Rather easy to do. The rest you do for me by yourself. Esp the magical thinking.

List plot holes. Fact is you don't know real estate. That's okay. A lot of people came here when it was a real estate site and then thought they were self educated. They didn't work in real estate and don't know shit. Even those that don't know what they talking about at least provide data as much as they can. You don't.

You've never given links or a semi educated opinion about real estate. Just everyone is wrong. Great commentary. Been going on for years. How is it working out for you? Not so good by the data.... oh wait, you have none. lol.

WookieMan says

List plot holes

I referred to the national median?

Dozens more. But why bother? We all know how you react when called out on your BS.

WookieMan says

Fact is you don't know real estate.

All the so called Housing Experts of PatNet would say that also when I pressed them on their bullshit. Deflection.

WookieMan says

You don't.

Yes I have. All the while you imaging shit up in your head and presenting it as 'fact'.

WookieMan says

You've never given links or a semi educated opinion about real estate.

Wrong again. More magical thinking reaction to assuage your cognitive dissonance.

WookieMan says

Just everyone is wrong.

You mean 'you' are wrong. You have demonstrated that you don't give a damn about others.

WookieMan says

How is it working out for you

Pretty good. Being proven right does that.

Someone should tell him its only in 'hipster', coastal cities, tho.

MolotovCocktail says

Someone should tell him its only in 'hipster', coastal cities, tho.

MolotovCocktail says

Someone should tell him its only in 'hipster', coastal cities, tho.

Something has to give, boy

At 6.5% rate for a 30 year mortgage, home prices have to stay flat while household income has to increase 4% annually for next 5 years to approach some level of housing affordability

I see that here in Panama City Beach and Florida panhandle as the local economic alliance group whom I'm a member have shown the local stats as far as that being the case since 2022 with housing prices at least frozen locally while household income surveys show about a 5% annual increase from 2022 to present day

.

AD says

MolotovCocktail says

Someone should tell him its only in 'hipster', coastal cities, tho.

Something has to give, boy

At 6.5% rate for a 30 year mortgage, home prices have to stay flat while household income has to increase 4% annually for next 5 years to approach some level of housing affordability

I see that here in Panama City Beach and Florida panhandle as the local economic alliance group whom I'm a member have shown the local stats as far as that being the case since 2022 with housing prices at least frozen locally while household income surveys show about a 5% annual increase from 2022 to present day

.

Household income surveys.

Ooookkkkkaaaaayyy. Hipsters?

MolotovCocktail says

Household income surveys.

Ooookkkkkaaaaayyy. Hipsters?

I get what you are saying, boy

You are saying there has been an influx to Bay County, Florida like "hipsters" and "young Professionals" flocking to the "new and hip downtown historic St Andrews and Panama City art district"

And you think that is skewing the socioeconomic data like local household income ?

I can talk about "working class" as far as "hospitality, service, and manufacturing" workers that live in our townhome HOA, some work at Eastern Shipyard (which got big contracts to build Washington State ferry boats and Army Corps of Engineers ship) and some work at Pier Park in retail, as well as medical industry like front desk and file clerk jobs

I can tell you that the "working class" have seen improvement in wages while rent has remained flat around $2000 for a 3 bedroom townhome on the beach, and $1750 in Panama City downtown ; the most disadvantaged are the retail workers (not the shipyard and healthcare workers) and the retail workers seem to be faring at least a little better from what I've learned just in my HOA as far as those sharing a 3 bedroom townhome

.

MolotovCocktail says

Someone should tell him its only in 'hipster', coastal cities, tho.

You post a graph of inventory rates from 18 years ago....? as a comparison. Literally ended a world war and a new one began in that time frame. The world changed dramatically in that time frame. People were still riding horses and living in hand built cabins/farmsteads during WWI.

Look where the inventory is on a map. Look who is moving out of those places. Look at demographics and population. Deportation is only going to influence the rental market for the most part as illegals generally didn't own. Yes landlords might be forced to sell in those areas as illegals leave. California is coastal and that's where the damage to housing will occur due to high taxes and forced/self deportation. Most you guys want that. I don't get the push back. The rest of the country is not CA.

Places like Denver, Vegas and Phoenix have always overbuilt and that adds to inventory. Now their prices are dropping. Phoenix and Vegas still being borderline coastal cities with weekend drives to the beach. Nashville is kind of like that but has a high floor on price drops. Central location East of the Mississippi being the biggie. 7 hour drive to the major cities and beaches. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eastern_United_States (wiki but whatever).

You refuse to answer what cities you've been to. That 100% matters. You refuse to answer any questions. You post images without the data. When there is data it's shit.



The trend line shows what looks like population growth. So yes, there are going to be more houses for sale. Doesn't mean they're not selling, just means there are more houses that can possibly hit the market.

The shit data is also only new single family homes. What it says is new builds are weak to me or inline with the demographic changes of having families later in life and after a 8 year house bust recovery and then covid.

You're living in 2012-13. Most the country is living in the other years. Get over it that you didn't buy. Haven't been to most of the major markets and looked at homes and the cities themselves. AKA talking out your ass. You can't even fake back it up.

AD says

You are saying there has been an influx to Bay County, Florida like "hipsters" and "young Professionals" flocking to the "new and hip downtown historic St Andrews and Panama City art district"

No. The 'hipster' thing is WookieMan's bullshit that I was referring to.

Pay attention, boy.

WookieMan says

You refuse to answer what cities you've been to.

Why, it doesn't address the made up bullshit in your head that you keep insisting should be accepted as fact by the rest of us.

WookieMan says

Get over it that you didn't buy.

See? Made up bullshit in his head. Along with others.

You still want to die on Wookie's Hallucination Hill, @AD ?

Because this is what you are doing. Not sure you are paying attention to the REAL conversation going on here. You might want to scroll back or just bail on this.

WookieMan says

You post a graph of inventory rates from 18 years ago....? as a comparison

Yes. Because it reflects how fucking bad things are now.

But you can not possibly accept that. Hence the long winded bullshit paragraphs.

You are ONLY an 'expert' in your head, it seems.

MolotovCocktail says

Yes. Because it reflects how fucking bad things are now.

How fucking bad are things? Did population not grow? Did more homes not get built in cities like Denver, Austin, Boise, Nashville, etc? I put a line on there for you for a reason. We're at typical NEW home inventory since 1965. The graph looks like a hockey stick because of the housing bust. We're right where we need to be.

Also your own graph says NEW homes for sale. Fun fact, maybe they'll sell as Millennials are in family formation and most of them are moving to the suburbs or rural. You can't sell a new house if you don't put it on the market. What builder puts a house on the market not wanting to sell it?

More population. Backlog of NOT building. You've given no logical analysis of your point. Younger people make a lot more money than you think. Outside of CA, or say Jackson, WY or Scottsdale, most young professionals are in the 3x to worst case 5x income to price. It's not doomsday dude. Only in pockets and even in those pockets the owners can take the beating because they have wealth.

WookieMan says

How fucking bad are things?

Wow! There it is, everyone. More proof he engages in magical thinking.

It's amazing EXCEPT when you all realize we have been enabling him do so. Myself included. Just sad.

MolotovCocktail says

WookieMan says

How fucking bad are things?

Wow! There it is, everyone. More proof he engages in magical thinking.

It's amazing EXCEPT when you all realize we have been enabling him do so. Myself included. Just sad.

No question answered. Hard to have a conversation with someone that doesn't answer basic stuff. I don't know anyone doing bad. Job or housing wise. Name something? I showed in the graph the trend line is totally fine with population growth. You didn't even counter that.

WookieMan says

No question answered. Hard to have a conversation with someone that doesn't answer basic stuff.

Cut the bullshit.

There's the conversation going on here...and that which is going on entirely or at least mostly in your head. You demonstrate this over and over. You can talk a good game that fools ppl most of the time. But as you keep it up, you let things slip out that clearly ahows you are definitely having some sort of imaginary conversation in part or full, instead.

https://youtu.be/AJS9X1SBbsA?si=7DHNmumdWUaeXkZC

YO, Housing Experts of PatNet!

MolotovCocktail says

No. The 'hipster' thing is WookieMan's bullshit that I was referring to.

Pay attention, boy.

Hipsters are hipsters, no matter who says hipsters, boy

.

WookieMan says

most young professionals are in the 3x to worst case 5x income to price

Demographics determines economics as Ken Gronbach (frequent guest on Coast to Coast AM) says

Bay County and Panama City are trying to bring in "young professionals

But I think the Work From Home craze is over, and many are being called back to work such as at AT&T, Apple, IBM, etc.

So they are trying to bring in an electric boat manufacturing company (about 3000 jobs) and an aerospace company (about 500 jobs) after successfully bringing in companies like an electric equipment company, an industrial laundry company, healthcare software company, etc

and the last batch of Baby Boomers moving to Bay County likely is in the next 3 years

.

WookieMan says

No question answered. Hard to have a conversation with someone that doesn't answer basic stuff.

I'll dumb it down. Have you ever been to Denver? Yes or no?

I've answered everything you asked. You just move the goal posts constantly. I've consistently said coast and cities, some of which are hipster type where people move because they think it's cool. That trend will flare out at some point and they will lose value on homes and rents.

You've literally said nothing in this back and forth beside just argue. You literally just posted a graph that shows with population growth the number of new homes for sale is normal. What was your point? And that's just it, you don't know and don't have one.

Stick to the big boob pics thread or whatever it is. I blocked it. I'm not 14. You clearly know nothing about real estate. Just stay in your lane.

AD says

Hipsters are hipsters, no matter who says hipsters, boy

Nope. Wookie has his own definition for that.