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Housing prices will not go down...


               
2025 Jan 2, 7:23pm   21,816 views  602 comments

by anon5525   follow (0)  

... because immigration will not go down. Housing prices are controlled by supply and demand. There is no space in any urban area to build more housing. None. You can't insert land between two streets. The only way to increase supply is to steal people's homes through eminent domain and tear them down to build higher density apartments

So the only way to decrease real prices is to decrease demand, and the only way to do that is to kick out all illegal immigrants and anchor babies. Will Trump do this? Almost certainly not. Even with control over all three branches of the government, the Republicans are not going to get rid of all the illegals who are driving up housing prices and social welfare costs. I wish that I was wrong about this, but I'm not.

The United States population reached 200 million on November 20, 1967. If there was no net migration, then the U.S. population have stabilized to about 220 million. Instead, the population is 335 million. This is why housing is so expensive. This is why rent is so damn high. This is why the younger generations cannot afford to have children. This is why the only way to keep the population from falling is to import massive numbers of unskilled, uneducated, and often criminal immigrants. Both parties are responsible for this: democrats for importing voters and republicans for importing farm laborers. Both parties want cheap labor.

When you import massive numbers of low-iq, low-skill workers, your per capital GDP declines relative to where it would have been otherwise. Yes, technological advancements mask this because technology increases GDP faster than low-skill immigration decreases it, but most of those gains don't get seen by the middle class.

Since both parties, and their corporate overlords, are benefiting from the current system, immigration will continue and housing prices will also continue to rise. I suppose I shouldn't care since I own and have a 2.25% mortgage that is being eaten away by inflation, but anyone young enough that they having bought already is fucked.

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374   Glock-n-Load   2025 Sep 3, 5:25pm  

I do not believe the government will allow any real damage to occur in the housing sector.
375   AD   2025 Sep 3, 5:40pm  

Glock-n-Load says

I do not believe the government will allow any real damage to occur in the housing sector.


yep, at least going by what the "government" did around 2008 and having Zero Interest Rate Policy during Obama

like they said on CNBC around 2013 that 1/2 the gains of the stock market since 2008 was due to the Federal Reserve policies not because of productivity gains
376   WookieMan   2025 Sep 3, 6:40pm  

AD says

Glock-n-Load says
I do not believe the government will allow any real damage to occur in the housing sector.

yep, at least going by what the "government" did around 2008 and having Zero Interest Rate Policy during Obama

I think we're just back to a normal market and rates in most places. Double digit increases are done. Some are struggling, but it's not that bad at all. I'm looking at 3-5% gains across my region. I won't say the regions doing bad as i don't want the troll to come out of his cave. You cats know FL. Not good, but also not bad really.

I'll just plant this here... Coastal. https://www.zillow.com/home-values/4841/galveston-tx/
378   GNL   2025 Sep 3, 7:52pm  

I do not believe we have a real economy. It is managed. TPTB look at numbers. They are only concerned about numbers. It is over my head and my thoughts and beliefs would make most people think I'm a conspiracy theorist. There is a ledger high up that controls, or controls as best it can, the economy.
379   MolotovCocktail   2025 Sep 3, 8:17pm  

WookieMan says

Cool. You trust a woman that looks like that?? For real? Then trust another random that name drops people no one knows


More than I trust your bullshit

Lay off the booze.
380   MolotovCocktail   2025 Sep 3, 8:18pm  

WookieMan says

It's a modest drop. No one is going broke.


So the Housing Expert of PatNet declares!

Where's your links?
381   PeopleUnited   2025 Sep 3, 8:26pm  

GNL says


TPTB look at numbers. They are only concerned about numbers.

The are concerned about control. They are power hungry, and under the spell of Satan. They will not rest until they have full control. They think they can become gods. They will lose in the end of course. But not before a culmination of efforts in taking control of the last thing every human has in their possession, free will. The final insult to humanity will be when people are forced to decide to live in the beast system where only those who enter the hive mind technocracy are allowed to buy or sell, and those who refuse are martyred for their refusal to take the mark of the beast.

Even so, don’t take the mark. Your free will is the most important gift God gave you. Choose Him and choose life, forsake Him and embrace destruction of your very eternal soul.
382   WookieMan   2025 Sep 4, 2:54am  

MolotovCocktail says

WookieMan says


It's a modest drop. No one is going broke.


So the Housing Expert of PatNet declares!

Where's your links?

Plenty of links in above comments. You don't post links. You like picture books.
383   AD   2025 Sep 4, 7:59am  

.

a return to the mean, which should be around 2 as far as number unemployed to number of job openings

this all plays into housing and rent prices

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=p9aA

.
384   WookieMan   2025 Sep 4, 8:59am  

AD says

.

a return to the mean, which should be around 2 as far as number unemployed to number of job openings

this all plays into housing and rent prices

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=p9aA

.

Thank you for the link.

I think income is the bigger factor though. A lot of people stopped working after the housing crash and then covid. Family formation stopped/stalled and you could get away with a full time breadwinner and a part timer in most cases and in most areas without kids which is common now.

Unemployment is a bad metric as it's going to be low as people stopped looking for work. A teacher and a part time bartender with no kids can make $120k per year pretty easily. Income is the biggest factor. 90% of people are not going to be able to afford a coastal CA home. You can correct me but I think FL is a demographic issue and insurance issue for home ownership. It's a service based economy with a lot of seniors and people on vacation that need service. Basically low wage jobs. FL housing prices should technically be higher besides the super popular beach areas.
385   HeadSet   2025 Sep 4, 7:44pm  

WookieMan says

A teacher and a part time bartender with no kids can make $120k per year pretty easily.

Sure, if she has an OF page to boot. Illinois median income for a teacher is about $56k.
386   AD   2025 Sep 4, 8:03pm  

WookieMan says

Unemployment is a bad metric


yes its one metric, boy

you have to be a systems thinker like Patrick is

so examine many metrics on your socioeconomic health dashboard such as unemployment to open jobs ratio and labor participation rate

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CIVPART

.
387   MolotovCocktail   2025 Sep 4, 8:04pm  

WookieMan says

Plenty of links in above comments. You don't post links. You like picture books.


You said, "nobody is going broke"

Where's your links proving that?

Nowhere, yet you keep claiming otherwise.

This is where your bullshit problem arises.
388   WookieMan   2025 Sep 5, 2:55am  

MolotovCocktail says

WookieMan says
Plenty of links in above comments. You don't post links. You like picture books.

You said, "nobody is going broke"

This is a real estate thread. I posted links about housing prices. That's more than enough.

In my sphere no one is going broke. There's not a link for that. You know that too. I'm guessing you're surrounded by people that are not doing well. Sad for them. The world is not as bad as you want to think it is. At least the United States.

Click the links. I back my claims up when I can. My friends and family are doing just fine mostly outside of drama. Maybe don't surround yourself with weak people, if they exist?
389   MolotovCocktail   2025 Sep 8, 7:49pm  

WookieMan says


This is a real estate thread. I posted links about housing prices. That's more than enough.


You never posted links that prove your bullshit statement 'nobody is going broke'

WookieMan says


In my sphere no one is going broke


PROVE IT.

And 'nobody' isn't limited to 'in your [imaginary] sphere', whatever that magical bullshit means. You fucked up, not my problem.

WookieMan says


There's not a link for that. You know that too.


First you say you have links backing up the crap you dish out...now you admit that you don't.

WookieMan says


Click the links. I back my claims up when I can


Now you just flipped again! In the same comment!

Dude....


392   AD   2025 Sep 9, 10:15pm  

MolotovCocktail says

(0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag


yes since there should be a 10% change (either increase or decrease) for every 1% change (increase or decrease) for the 30 year mortgage

so discount it 40% in this example but then apply an adjustment factor of 0.8 since household income has increase 20% since early 2022

hence, it should be a 40% x 0.8 or 32% decrease in housing prices since early 2022

.
393   Misc   2025 Sep 9, 11:04pm  

The price of housing has another component. Since over 14% of the population of the US is now foreign born, the price of housing could have taken a permanent upturn as the number of people per dwelling has increase dramatically over the last 16 years or so. There's about 50 million foreign born people in the US today, and that's not including their offspring. Not only do these immigrants push up the price of rents and housing by having more wage earners per dwelling, but this has had an impact on the native households as well. Native households are now having their children stay with their parents far longer than historical norms. Also, the elderly are moving back in with their children to cut costs.

Additionally, there has been an ever expanding role of the government to "keep housing affordable". This involves some transfer of funds from the public to homebuyers. On average a State gives $10k towards first time home buyers. (Florida is right in the middle of the pack giving away $10k). On top of this, about 40% of new home buyers received financial aid for their purchase from their parents. Basically, the older and wiser generation don't want their offspring to get their starter house in the ghetto.

All of this has increased the cost of a house beyond the old rules of thumb.
394   MolotovCocktail   2025 Sep 9, 11:23pm  

AD says

household income has increase 20% since early 2022



395   WookieMan   2025 Sep 10, 7:20am  

Misc says

Basically, the older and wiser generation don't want their offspring to get their starter house in the ghetto.

I agree, but living and/or working in a ghetto is eye opening. Creates more conservative/libertarian voters. 25-30 years ago Wicker Park in Chicago was a shit hole. Double Door which I've played at closed and now is a Yuppie venue and neighborhood. https://www.doubledoor.com/ That's not the original building by the way.

I wouldn't live there now, but I miss the old grit. Progress is not always positive. You can still get shot there for no reason as well. 3% of me misses it sometimes, but I'm way better off in a rural area where I grew up. No homeless though, maybe some beggars and drugged out people.
396   GNL   2025 Sep 10, 7:42am  

There are some very successful real estate investors who show why housing will not go down. Basically, builders simply won't build unless/until prices support their profit goals. These builders have contracts and/or have large holdings of land. I think builders would have to go bust and/or jobs will have to disappear on a large scale for housing to take a dump.
397   AD   2025 Sep 10, 10:58am  

GNL says

There are some very successful real estate investors who show why housing will not go down. Basically, builders simply won't build unless/until prices support their profit goals. These builders have contracts and/or have large holdings of land. I think builders would have to go bust and/or jobs will have to disappear on a large scale for housing to take a dump.


yeah case in point RD Offutt cleared ground last year on the +250 unit luxury apartments called Hathaway Luxury Apartments and then stopped construction

I was told by a point of contact within the county's economic development alliance that multifamily housing starts wont commence again until rents start going up

.
398   GNL   2025 Sep 10, 11:16am  

AD says

GNL says


There are some very successful real estate investors who show why housing will not go down. Basically, builders simply won't build unless/until prices support their profit goals. These builders have contracts and/or have large holdings of land. I think builders would have to go bust and/or jobs will have to disappear on a large scale for housing to take a dump.


yeah case in point RD Offutt cleared ground last year on the +250 unit luxury apartments called Hathaway Luxury Apartments and then stopped construction

I was told by a point of contact within the county's economic development alliance that multifamily housing starts wont commence again until rents start going up

.

This is why I say they have to go bust in order to change anything. What is the likelihood of that? Again, as I said above, government will simply bail any and all TBTF organizations out. It is a loooooooooooooooooong way from going down.
399   ForcedTQ   2025 Sep 10, 11:10pm  

MolotovCocktail says







That’s just what the same $1,850 payment can afford, not realistic to what the house is worth. That’s excuse logic for those who haven’t saved/invested money to purchase a house to shout down a valuation.
400   AD   2025 Sep 10, 11:40pm  

ForcedTQ says

not realistic to what the house is worth


It is "worth" based on the buyer and seller agreeing to a price and on the contract terms.

.
401   ForcedTQ   2025 Sep 11, 6:56am  

AD says

ForcedTQ says


not realistic to what the house is worth


It is "worth" based on the buyer and seller agreeing to a price and on the contract terms.

.

AD, agreed. Also, as far as valuation goes, look to what it would cost to build the place now, no profit. See where that comes to.
402   WookieMan   2025 Sep 11, 7:24am  

ForcedTQ says

AD says


ForcedTQ says



not realistic to what the house is worth


It is "worth" based on the buyer and seller agreeing to a price and on the contract terms.

.


AD, agreed. Also, as far as valuation goes, look to what it would cost to build the place now, no profit. See where that comes to.

Depends where you are. Did they stop building for 15 years after the bust? I'm in a town with 800 homes and there will be 30 new ones this year that sold. First builds since the bust.

This is why I hate real estate topics. My area might be doing better and others get upset that theirs isn't (this is not directed at any user). I appreciate AD's comments because he keeps it to the area he knows and I'm somewhat familiar with that region. I know he's not a bull shitter. I'd love to tell you the town I live in, but it would be easy to dox me pretty quickly. PCB is a way larger area population wise. With 3 kids and the occasional whacko on the site, I'll just talk about life and not location details. I'm just from IL and housing is doing fine.
403   HeadSet   2025 Sep 11, 6:57pm  

ForcedTQ says

AD says


ForcedTQ says



not realistic to what the house is worth


It is "worth" based on the buyer and seller agreeing to a price and on the contract terms.

.


AD, agreed. Also, as far as valuation goes, look to what it would cost to build the place now, no profit. See where that comes to.

Since houses are typically sold on a monthly payment, a 6.5% market full of $1850/mo buyers will find any house priced over $300k will stay unsold and new houses that would cost more than $300k will not be built.
404   MolotovCocktail   2025 Sep 11, 7:00pm  

HeadSet says


ForcedTQ says


AD says


ForcedTQ says


not realistic to what the house is worth


It is "worth" based on the buyer and seller agreeing to a price and on the contract terms.

.


AD, agreed. Also, as far as valuation goes, look to what it would cost to build the place now, no profit. See where that comes to.


Since houses are typically sold on a monthly payment, a 6.5% market full of $1850/mo buyers will find any house priced over $300k will stay unsold and new houses that would cost more than $300k will not be built.



^^^ Classic 2nd order and 3rd order effects thinking applied. Eventually homes that stay unsold get sold one way or another. Or abandoned like Detroit and Future Detroit (SF Bay Area).
405   AD   2025 Sep 12, 1:55pm  

I was looking around and VA Mortgage rates (just like FHA) are around 5.8% which is inline with them typically being less than 0.5% than conventional rates.

Once the rate gets to 5.5% then sellers should offer to buy up to 4 discount points to lower the buyer's mortgage rate to 4.5% considering all time high prices were around a rate of 3% in 2022. Buying 4 discount points costs 4% of the mortgage but it is like lowering the home price 10%.
................................

https://www.cnn.com/2025/09/11/economy/mortgage-rates-sept-11

"The 30-year fixed mortgage rate averaged 6.35% for the week ending September 11, down from 6.50% last week, according to data released Thursday by Freddie Mac."
406   mell   2025 Sep 12, 2:05pm  

They will keep going down somehwat in anticipation of rate cuts
407   Blue   2025 Sep 12, 3:56pm  

https://www.kff.org/affordable-care-act/how-much-and-why-aca-marketplace-premiums-are-going-up-in-2026/
The above link is not directly related to this thread.
But it gives a relatively what can be expected when the other big ticket item will go double digit rate hikes!
408   AD   2025 Sep 12, 8:28pm  

Blue says


https://www.kff.org/affordable-care-act/how-much-and-why-aca-marketplace-premiums-are-going-up-in-2026/
The above link is not directly related to this thread.
But it gives a relatively what can be expected when the other big ticket item will go double digit rate hikes!


Obama and his sycophants knew it would get so unsustainable that people would beg for a single payer system.

A lot of Democrats said this was a bridge or path to single payer system.

This is what they wanted ultimately as they already had the solution but it was too early to try to convince the public to accept it.

To paraphrase Rahm Emmanuel, never let a crisis go unexploited.

So healthcare insurance premium will eat into more household income and make less available for housing, which impacts housing as some will have to have roommates to help pay the rent or find cheaper rental properties.

.
409   mell   2025 Sep 12, 8:45pm  

Agreed, but the money is mostly with boomers and aging gen X ers on medicare
410   AD   2025 Sep 12, 9:00pm  

mell says

Agreed, but the money is mostly with boomers and aging gen X ers on medicare


Yeah, as far as health care industry has seen a boon with Baby Boomers since around 2005.

Just look at how Vanguard Healthcare Fund took off, and now that Baby Boomers are dying off, and the percentage of population on Medicare is decreasing then that may impact money spent on healthcare.

.
411   GNL   2025 Sep 13, 9:40am  

The best thing Americans can do to fight healthcare price abuse it to cancel all health insurances.
412   MolotovCocktail   2025 Sep 18, 1:10pm  




WTF, Housing Experts of PatNet?

And what happens with this now?


413   AD   2025 Sep 18, 1:28pm  

MolotovCocktail says




WTF, Housing Experts of PatNet?

And what happens with this now?





Once FHA and VA mortgages steady around 5.5% (and conventional mortgages around 6%) then timing is right to buy down 4 discount points to lower the mortgage rate from 5.5% to 4.5%.

Consider all time high prices were around early 2022 when the 30 yr mortgage rate was 3%, and for every 1% increase in 30 year mortgage rate there is a 10% drop in price. But factor in or adjust for median household income has increased from early 2022 to present day about 20%.

.

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