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Housing prices will not go down...


               
2025 Jan 2, 7:23pm   21,744 views  601 comments

by anon5525   follow (0)  

... because immigration will not go down. Housing prices are controlled by supply and demand. There is no space in any urban area to build more housing. None. You can't insert land between two streets. The only way to increase supply is to steal people's homes through eminent domain and tear them down to build higher density apartments

So the only way to decrease real prices is to decrease demand, and the only way to do that is to kick out all illegal immigrants and anchor babies. Will Trump do this? Almost certainly not. Even with control over all three branches of the government, the Republicans are not going to get rid of all the illegals who are driving up housing prices and social welfare costs. I wish that I was wrong about this, but I'm not.

The United States population reached 200 million on November 20, 1967. If there was no net migration, then the U.S. population have stabilized to about 220 million. Instead, the population is 335 million. This is why housing is so expensive. This is why rent is so damn high. This is why the younger generations cannot afford to have children. This is why the only way to keep the population from falling is to import massive numbers of unskilled, uneducated, and often criminal immigrants. Both parties are responsible for this: democrats for importing voters and republicans for importing farm laborers. Both parties want cheap labor.

When you import massive numbers of low-iq, low-skill workers, your per capital GDP declines relative to where it would have been otherwise. Yes, technological advancements mask this because technology increases GDP faster than low-skill immigration decreases it, but most of those gains don't get seen by the middle class.

Since both parties, and their corporate overlords, are benefiting from the current system, immigration will continue and housing prices will also continue to rise. I suppose I shouldn't care since I own and have a 2.25% mortgage that is being eaten away by inflation, but anyone young enough that they having bought already is fucked.

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444   Misc   2025 Oct 13, 1:17pm  

In the US about 12% of the population owns 2 or more properties. In China it is about 25% of the population. So, if we simply get to the level the Chinese are at today, that absorbs all the excess property coming from the Boomers.
445   MolotovCocktail   2025 Oct 13, 1:26pm  

Misc says

In the US about 12% of the population owns 2 or more properties. In China it is about 25% of the population. So, if we simply get to the level the Chinese are at today, that absorbs all the excess property coming from the Boomers.


You are being sarcastic, right?
446   Misc   2025 Oct 13, 2:28pm  

MolotovCocktail says

You are being sarcastic, right?


No, not sarcastic. The elites in America have really kept the boot down on regular Americans achieving affluence. The home ownership rate in the US is about 66% where in China it is about 90%, so that increase in the number of people having multiple properties equates more to second homes for the Chinese whereas in AMerica it usually means a rental unit.. Now you can talk about the quality of the housing unit, but here in the US over the last 15 years or so the number of occupants per dwelling has been surging. The media over the last 10 years has been promoting that Americans want "Smaller" homes and TPTB have forced homebuilders to comply through higher land prices, local building fees and interest rate policies.

There's plenty of the population to absorb the incoming properties if the elites allow it. They could of course increase prices some more to limit people's disposable income, increase property taxes some more or buy up the properties themselves and rent them back to the commoners. All of which the elites have done since the last Housing Bubble.
447   Misc   2025 Oct 13, 3:25pm  

As a side note, in China there are over 100 car companies building cars. The elites in the US would lose their SHIT if something like that was tried in the US even compensating for population.
448   mell   2025 Oct 13, 3:29pm  

Prices will hold in desirable areas but overall it's in a correction no doubt, but not a crash. Next 5 years will bring on avg. low single digit appreciation at best imo
449   RWSGFY   2025 Oct 13, 5:51pm  

Misc says

As a side note, in China there are over 100 car companies building cars. The elites in the US would lose their SHIT if something like that was tried in the US even compensating for population.


Been there, done that: the US used to have over 100 car companies at the dawn of the last century. But, unlike in China now, these weren't government-subsidized.
450   AD   2025 Oct 13, 6:10pm  

MolotovCocktail says







*************************************************************************************************

Yes, it is brand new and first listed in December 2024 for $416,500

https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/3382-Wood-Stork-Drive-Sw-Wilmington-LOT-37-Ocean-Isle-Beach-NC-28469/443112242_zpid/

.
451   Misc   2025 Oct 13, 6:27pm  

Looks like today's Zillow listing is $10k more than what was posted.

Buy now or be priced out forever ! ! !
452   MolotovCocktail   2025 Oct 13, 6:48pm  

Misc says

There's plenty of the population to absorb the incoming properties if the elites allow it.


No, there isn't. That's the whole point many on PatNet don't get...or don't want to.

And Chinese real estate is a disaster right now.
453   Misc   2025 Oct 13, 6:51pm  

RWSGFY says


Been there, done that: the US used to have over 100 car companies at the dawn of the last century. But, unlike in China now, these weren't government-subsidized.


Imagine that ...the government trying to help businesses instead of going out of their way to hinder them like would happen in the US.
454   Misc   2025 Oct 13, 6:53pm  

MolotovCocktail says


And Chinese real estate is a disaster right now


So, they've built a few too many cities.
455   Misc   2025 Oct 13, 7:42pm  

In the US it is the opposite problem. Since 2022 the financial media has been promoting that now is a terrible time to buy a house. They use historical price to income ratios to belabor the point.

Since April 2022 (when the Housing Bubble 2.0 thread was started ) the stock market has increased in value by about 61% or about $25 trillion. We only have about 2 million houses for sale in the US. At an average price of $430k it puts the market value up for sale at about $86 billion.

All it takes is a small change in perception to reignite housing sales.
456   DemoralizerOfPanicans   2025 Oct 13, 8:33pm  

AD says

MolotovCocktail says








*************************************************************************************************

Yes, it is brand new and first listed in December 2024 for $416,500

https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/3382-Wood-Stork-Drive-Sw-Wilmington-LOT-37-Ocean-Isle-Beach-NC-28469/443112242_zpid/

.

Wow, 25% price cut, and it's a new build, not a used house.
457   AD   2025 Oct 13, 8:45pm  

https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/homebuyers-getting-cold-feet-backing-153048388.htmlMisc says

All it takes is a small change in perception to reignite housing sales.


A vast majority of the stock market gains are for the top 20%.

Housing affordability is the common denominator.

Housing prices need to drop at least 15% from all time highs for a 6% mortgage rate.

And now that buyers believe housing is in a deflationary spiral they are waiting it out by thinking prices will continue to decrease.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/homebuyers-getting-cold-feet-backing-153048388.html
458   Misc   2025 Oct 13, 9:10pm  

Generation Z has more financial wealth for their age than any generation that preceded it adjusted for inflation. The mainstream media focuses on the losers of that generation while completely ignoring those with savings. For homeownership, this generation is woefully behind in comparison to prior generations We may see Case/Shiller have a month over month increase come the 1st part of next year so there could be a change in faith. Bitcoin is up 178% since April 2022...just sayin'.
459   MolotovCocktail   2025 Oct 13, 9:30pm  

Misc says

In the US it is the opposite problem. Since 2022 the financial media has been promoting that now is a terrible time to buy a house. They use historical price to income ratios to belabor the point.

Since April 2022 (when the Housing Bubble 2.0 thread was started ) the stock market has increased in value by about 61% or about $25 trillion. We only have about 2 million houses for sale in the US. At an average price of $430k it puts the market value up for sale at about $86 billion.

All it takes is a small change in perception to reignite housing sales.


No. All it takes is a drastic drop in prices.
460   MolotovCocktail   2025 Oct 13, 9:30pm  

Misc says

Generation Z has more financial wealth for their age than any generation that preceded it adjusted for inflation.


What planet do you live on?
461   Misc   2025 Oct 13, 9:37pm  

MolotovCocktail says


What planet do you live on?


Google it:

Gen Z has amassed significant financial wealth, with one 2022 report stating they held nearly $6 trillion, though many still face financial instability. Their wealth growth is driven by increased stock and retirement account ownership, while also being the generation with the lowest median net worth due to high costs of living and student debt. Despite challenges, some Gen Zers are rapidly accumulating wealth through high-paying jobs, and projections suggest they will become the richest generation by 2035 through a major wealth transfer

https://fortune.com/2024/05/02/gen-z-wealth-spending-power-income-job-market-vs-previous-generations/
462   MolotovCocktail   2025 Oct 13, 9:38pm  

Misc says

Gen Z has amassed significant financial wealth



463   Misc   2025 Oct 13, 10:30pm  

The US has the highest percentage of college graduates with engineering and science degrees in the world clocking in at about 35%. They get high paying jobs. There's just not much of a news story there.

We hear about those with a disfunction.
464   MolotovCocktail   2025 Oct 13, 11:15pm  

Misc says

The US has the highest percentage of college graduates with engineering and science degrees in the world clocking in at about 35%. They get high paying jobs. There's just not much of a news story there.

We hear about those with a disfunction.


That 35% figure just GenZ or all college grads?

Either way, the dysfunction is the norm. 100 - 35 is what? 65%.

Vast majority of tech degrees now are foreigners, not Americans.

And the ones who are Americans are discriminated against for foreign hires.

Their family/household formationis totally in the shitter.

And there isn't enough of them to buy Boomer houses at inflated Boomer prices. Period.

I seriously don't know what bizarro world you live in. Sure you aren't confusing them with Millennials?
465   Misc   2025 Oct 14, 12:09am  

MolotovCocktail says


I seriously don't know what bizarro world you live in. Sure you aren't confusing them with Millennials?


Nope Gen Z. Unemployment rate is 4.3% overall and lower than that for STEM fields. US companies pay more than any other corporations in the world. The 35% is just scientists and engineers. You still have your medical people, finance guys, etc. Figure 18% gravitate to government jobs. There's the pure bullshit graduates and those are the ones that make the news.

Like I've been saying it's too early to call for a housing crash. Case/Shiller is about 1% down from the high hit this summer. There's only about $86 billion worth of houses for sale. Real Estate does not exist in a vacuum. That $86 billion is nothing to the financial markets.

About 33% of housing purchases are done all cash.
466   GNL   2025 Oct 14, 4:27am  

Gen Z is between 13 and 28 years old.
467   WookieMan   2025 Oct 14, 4:33am  

Misc says

About 33% of housing purchases are done all cash.

Yup. And we're hitting record low home ownership rates around 60%. People locked into low interest rates that have been paid off 5-10 years and they don't need to move. We're at historically low build rates. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/HOUST

Prices will go sideways for now, not up or down unless there's a massive job loss crisis, which I don't see or over building in specific areas.

2010-2018 was the best time to ever buy a house and a shit load of people did. They aren't moving. Then factor in dying boomers and inheritances even if it's only $20-40k. That's a solid down payment.

We're in the 21st century of the roaring 20's. Without population growth I have concerns about the 30-40's of this centruy. I'll be out of most investments and a paid off house by then. Worry about my kids though. I just don't see bad things coming. 2028 is going to be a massive year.
468   FortWayneHatesRealtors   2025 Oct 14, 5:40am  

Misc says

MolotovCocktail says



I seriously don't know what bizarro world you live in. Sure you aren't confusing them with Millennials?


Nope Gen Z. Unemployment rate is 4.3% overall and lower than that for STEM fields. US companies pay more than any other corporations in the world. The 35% is just scientists and engineers. You still have your medical people, finance guys, etc. Figure 18% gravitate to government jobs. There's the pure bullshit graduates and those are the ones that make the news.

Like I've been saying it's too early to call for a housing crash. Case/Shiller is about 1% down from the high hit this summer. There's only about $86 billion worth of houses for sale. Real Estate does not exist in a vacuum. That $86 billion is nothing to the financial markets.

About 33% of housing purchases are done all cash.


Aren’t they still in high school?
469   Misc   2025 Oct 14, 6:22am  

Fortwaye says

Aren’t they still in high school?


The oldest is 28. Outta college with a few years savings behind them. Like I said for their age they have more financial assets than any previous generation for their age even factoring inflation.
470   FortWayneHatesRealtors   2025 Oct 14, 6:38am  

Misc says

Fortwaye says


Aren’t they still in high school?


The oldest is 28. Outta college with a few years savings behind them. Like I said for their age they have more financial assets than any previous generation for their age even factoring inflation.


I don't see that around here. I'm not sure why you think they have it so easy. They are kids, with nothing, no money, no assets, no skills, no network. If you telling me 20yo's have assets and network, I won't take you seriously.
471   Misc   2025 Oct 14, 6:53am  

Fortwaye says

I don't see that around here. I'm not sure why you think they have it so easy. They are kids, with nothing, no money, no assets, no skills, no network. If you telling me 20yo's have assets and network, I won't take you seriously.


How old were you when you bought your 1st house ???
472   MolotovCocktail   2025 Oct 14, 9:06am  

Misc says

Fortwaye says


Aren’t they still in high school?


The oldest is 28. Outta college with a few years savings behind them. Like I said for their age they have more financial assets than any previous generation for their age even factoring inflation.



473   mell   2025 Oct 14, 9:19am  

Fortwaye says

Misc says


Fortwaye says



Aren’t they still in high school?


The oldest is 28. Outta college with a few years savings behind them. Like I said for their age they have more financial assets than any previous generation for their age even factoring inflation.



I don't see that around here. I'm not sure why you think they have it so easy. They are kids, with nothing, no money, no assets, no skills, no network. If you telling me 20yo's have assets and network, I won't take you seriously.

Agreed it's too optimistic. There are some who made money in crypto and dividends early on but the majority doesn't have the buying power.
474   Glock-n-Load   2025 Oct 14, 10:48am  

MolotovCocktail says

GNL says


Are home prices declining yet?


50% of states so far.

But all of those are hipster states, correct? :)
475   RC2006   2025 Oct 14, 1:17pm  

My 10% down on my first house was more than my parents total cost for thier first house. My dad made a quarter of what I make and my mom wasn't working when they bought their house. Its even worse for my kids. Housing had more than doubled since my son was born. Young people are getting fucked.
476   Blue   2025 Oct 14, 1:32pm  

RC2006 says

My 10% down on my first house was more than my parents total cost for thier first house. My dad made a quarter of what I make and my mom wasn't working when they bought their house. Its even worse for my kids. Housing had more than doubled since my son was born. Young people are getting fucked.

Recently I saw 5% down payment at a new construction site in south Bay Area. Like I mentioned in one of my above posts 20:80 rule, housing became novelty and not for everyone like in the old days. At this point, I suspect every major country falls into this category because of the modern monetary policy! Young people life is stolen by their parents and parasite governments by design. This is very sad situation.
477   WookieMan   2025 Oct 14, 1:42pm  

RC2006 says


My 10% down on my first house was more than my parents total cost for thier first house. My dad made a quarter of what I make and my mom wasn't working when they bought their house. Its even worse for my kids. Housing had more than doubled since my son was born. Young people are getting fucked.

They're not getting fucked. They want to live in places they cannot afford. It's simple math and data.

Coal Valley, IL (not near where I live). Close to interstates and 4 decent sized cities, so there's work. A regional airport with commercial flights. Low traffic. https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/108-W-15th-Ave-Coal-Valley-IL-61240/207346004_zpid/

But no. People want to live in CA, FL, Denver, Austin, Nashville, etc. You could get that house for $170-175k negotiating. There are houses for young people everywhere, that's not an excuse. A $35k/yr teacher and $35k/yr landscaper could pay that easily on the 3x income rule if they don't have debt.

That's a perfectly fine starter home that likely needs some work, but that's part of growing up and what real men and even women do. You put in work before you have kids.

I know i'll keep getting shit on about this. Young people want hipster and coastal spots and then bitch about affordability. When you're 24 your're not going to the Westin on St. John USVI at $6-7k/wk and another $3k on eating out. That's likely 10-20% of your income after tax. Go to the Panhandle of FL and get a condo for $1,200/wk and make your own meals. Guess what you can have the same fun.

When you become wealthy then have the good things. In the meantime live within your means. Buy low, fix up and sell higher. If you're a man that has no skills than that's ultimately your fault. Can't blame prices. You sound like a faggot when you blame high prices.
478   Blue   2025 Oct 14, 9:01pm  

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=Q6LsqK63A8s
San Francisco's housing market 2026

Market is down but still expensive for most people (80%!), he says may not crash further. Looks like it’s the same correction happening in some pockets in expensive cities across the country. Rest of the country is fine I guess if not steamrolling inflation on the way to hold the floor.
479   FortWayneHatesRealtors   2025 Oct 15, 4:03am  

Blue says


https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=Q6LsqK63A8s
San Francisco's housing market 2026

Market is down but still expensive for most people (80%!), he says may not crash further. Looks like it’s the same correction happening in some pockets in expensive cities across the country. Rest of the country is fine I guess if not steamrolling inflation on the way to hold the floor.


RE in my state went down about 20%, I don't know if correction will continue, probably. I kind of hope it keeps crashing so regular folks can afford housing. The harder it gets to buy, the more crapy apartments builders build to earn rental income, I hate seeing that. Our entire state propped up by illegals renting and all cash boomers moving in and retiring to live in cheaper cost of living. Once blue state exodus stops, real estate here will likely nose dive, as there are no jobs here outside farm work which is done often by illegals or seasonal workers.

Years ago there were those informercials telling seniors to move to some middle of nowhere, and how it'll be up and coming future. And after few years it all crashes and burns because there is nothing there anyway. Red states right now remind me of that a lot. Everyone (including myself) moved here, in a few years it'll be a massive crash I think.
481   HeadSet   2025 Oct 15, 7:30am  

Fortwaye says

CA instant action to prop up landlords by paying rents.

How is that constitutional? It seems a court would strike that down fast. It also seems that locals who are noy illegals would object to rents being propped up.
482   MolotovCocktail   2025 Oct 15, 8:56am  

Glock-n-Load says


MolotovCocktail says


GNL says


Are home prices declining yet?


50% of states so far.


But all of those are hipster states, correct? :)





WookieMan says


I know i'll keep getting shit on about this. Young people want hipster and coastal...You sound like a faggot when you blame high prices.

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